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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Jittery Investors Turn to Cash in Hunt for Yield - WSJ
    Thanks @yogibb for the update - quite a reversal on treasury yield on both long and short durations. Perhaps this reflects the inflation has finally slowed and the terminal 5% rate is very near. Additionally, CD yields have been treading downward since January.
  • AAII Sentiment Survey, 2/1/23
    For the week ending on 2/1/23, neutral became the top sentiment (35.5%; above average) & bullish remained the bottom sentiment (29.9%; below average); bearish became the middle sentiment (34.6%; above average); Bull-Bear Spread was -4.7% (below average). Investor concerns: Inflation (moderating but high); economy; the Fed (+25 bps hike yesterday; a couple more?); dollar; crypto ice-age; market volatility (VIX, VXN, MOVE); Russia-Ukraine war (49+ weeks); geopolitical. For the Survey week (Th-Wed), stocks were up sharply, bonds up, oil down, gold flat, dollar down. Markets have perked up & this rally since Oct lows has legs. #AAII #Sentiment #Markets
    https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/thread/141/aaii-sentiment-survey-weekly?page=8&scrollTo=919
  • Secure Act 2.0 rewind, Age 72 b-day in 2023 receives a one year RMD deferral
    Thanks @msf. I recently viewed a 5498 (Fido), received by a friend, who will be 72 in 2023. The RMD box, for 2023, was not checked. I looked at the reverse of the form, too. Line 11 instructions indicates the 50% tax penalty if the RMD is not taken. This is correct per old law for someone already taking RMD, but is a bit confusing; versus the Act 2.0 penalty reduced to a 25% tax penalty.
    But, this is a 2022 5498 form, so.....
    Apparently, not all organizations are up to speed on Act 2.0 yet.
  • Secure Act 2.0 rewind, Age 72 b-day in 2023 receives a one year RMD deferral
    I was looking at the 5498 that someone over age 73 received from Fidelity. It mistakenly read:
    Our records indicate that you will be 72 or older in 2023. Once you reach age 72, the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) requires that you take a required minimum distribution (RMD) each year from your IRA(s). The deadline for taking RMDs is December 31 each year. If this is your first RMD, you have until April 1, 2024 (the year after you turn 72) to take your first withdrawal
    There's a checkbox on the form that says an RMD is required for 2023. It was correctly checked.
    The concern I expressed to Fidelity was that, aside from the boilerplate being wrong, that the checkbox might be mistakenly checked for customers turning 72 (not 73) this year. It's a computer-generated form, so it is possible that if the software team missed changing the text that they also missed changing the checkbox logic.
    Fidelity's response was minimal and not especially satisfying: We are aware of the problem and are working on it.
    There is a lot of misinformation out there. Just not necessarily the information one may think. And therein lies the problem - lots of confusion.
  • Jittery Investors Turn to Cash in Hunt for Yield - WSJ
    I got data from 2021 from Fido. about 50% of the SPAXX yield was state tax free. I don't know what % then was in Repos, but I bet that it was 50% and Repos are not state tax free
    https://www.fidelity.com/tax-information/prior-year-tax-exempt-income-information
    https://www.fidelity.com/bin-public/060_www_fidelity_com/documents/taxes/2021-gse-letter.pdf
    Aside from repos, other holdings that one finds in government MMFs that are not state tax-exempt include debt of some agencies: FHLMC, FNMA, GNMA.
    https://www.rbcwm-usa.com/resources/file-687493.pdf
    Also, the percentage of income derived from an asset class ≠ the asset class' percentage of portfolio
    This is because different securities have different yields.
    Three states, California, New York, and Connecticut require the percentage of state tax-exempt assets (not income) in each quarter to be at least 50%, or none of the income is exempt.
    https://personal.vanguard.com/pdf/USGOIN_01_2022.pdf (see footnote ** on p. 2)
    The difference between percentage of income and percentage of assets may explain why in 2020, 57% of the income from FDRXX was state tax-exempt, but still the fund failed to meet the 50% asset threshold.
    https://www.fidelity.com/bin-public/060_www_fidelity_com/documents/taxes/2020-gse-letter-sai-funds.pdf
    Regarding FCASH, this is covered by SIPC insurance, so long as the cash is temporary - there awaiting investment (cf. Robinhood). The MMFs are securities, not cash.
    A side note on cash-ish yield: FWIW, we're a month into 2023 and RPHIX is still chugging along ahead of Treasuries and MMFs. Its January total return is 0.47%, or 5.79% annualized.
    https://mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/60495/riverpark-short-term-high-yield-divs-and-availability#latest
  • Jittery Investors Turn to Cash in Hunt for Yield - WSJ
    ALL Treasury yields FELL today & Powell raised fed funds rate. Go figure.
    Date 1 Mo, 2 Mo, 3 Mo, 4 Mo, 6 Mo, 1 Yr, 2 Yr, 3 Yr, 5 Yr, 7 Yr, 10 Yr, 20 Yr, 30 Yr
    01/31/2023 4.58, 4.64, 4.70, 4.74, 4.80, 4.68, 4.21, 3.90, 3.63, 3.59, 3.52, 3.78, 3.65
    02/01/2023 4.59, 4.63, 4.66, 4.77, 4.79, 4.66, 4.09, 3.75, 3.48, 3.43, 3.39, 3.67, 3.55
    https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2023
  • Bed, Bath & Beyond Default
    Last time I was there they were advertising 20-50% off but most of what was left was only 20% off so no better than a BBB coupon (and I was getting emails offering 25% off entire purchases at all their stores not just the one closing).
    As with JCP, buyers have gotten used to the idea that at BBB everything comes with a coupon.
    In 2012, Ron Johnson, ... the new JCPenney CEO, unveiled a sweeping overhaul of the chain. Central to the strategy was a plan to end coupons and discounts and replace them with low “everyday” prices. ...
    The plan backfired.
    Sales tanked nearly 25% in a year and the company’s stock plunged. Johnson lost his job after just 17 months and Penney quickly brought back coupons. “We did not realize how deep some of the customers were into [coupons],” an executive said at the time.
    https://www.cnn.com/2022/03/05/business/coupons-history-jcpenney-macys-procter-and-gamble/index.html
    We would go the extra step. We used Discover Card rebates to purchase BBB gift cards at a 20% discount. So the 20% off coupon would take a $6.25 item down to $5, which we could purchase with a gift card costing us $4.
    It looks like you can't redeem cash back value for BBB gift cards any more.
    Every time I have been in one, they are kinda chaotic. Stuff everywhere, too many brands and choices.
    The stores we've gone into, which are newer ones, have been well organized. It varies from store to store.
    With respect to having too many choices, keep that comment (which has merit) in mind when people complain about 401k's not offering brokerage windows or 100+ different fund choices.
    Sometimes BBB sells models of products that are unique to BBB, adding another feature for the same price. You have to be familiar with a brand's product line to identify those products.
  • Adanis empire lost 51 billions in 48 hrs
    It gets curiouser.
    So, after the secondary/FPO (follow-on public offering) was suddenly fully subscribed at the last minute at price well over the market price, Adani Group pulled it saying that it won't be fair to its investors and that it didn't need the money after all. Deposits would be refunded.
    Unfortunately, some traders may have gotten caught in the fiasco or whipsawed.
    https://www.financialexpress.com/market/adani-enterprises-withdraw-fpo-worth-rs-20000-crore-money-to-be-returned-to-investors-tweets-ani/2968570/
    Edit/Add. Press Release https://www.bseindia.com/xml-data/corpfiling/AttachLive/8e2c9f40-730f-444a-a65f-432194e81edc.pdf
  • Jittery Investors Turn to Cash in Hunt for Yield - WSJ
    I got data from 2021 from Fido. about 50% of the SPAXX yield was state tax free. I don't know what % then was in Repos, but I bet that it was 50% and Repos are not state tax free
  • FOMC Statement, 2/1/23
    Notes from FOMC Statements & Powell's Presser
    Fed funds rate hikes +25 bps to 4.50-4.75%; (bank) reserve balance rate 4.65%; discount rate 4.75%; gradual rate hikes with at least "a couple more" hikes. Wait to see the FOMC Minutes for discussions related to pause/pivot. The QT continues at -$60 billion/mo for Treasuries and -$35 billion/mo for MBS (total QT -$95 billion/mo).
    Financial conditions remain restrictive. Stock and bond markets are just one factor. The Fed and the bond market differ on how fast the inflation will be coming down. The Fed thinks that we are far from +2% average inflation target as PCE is +5.0, core PCE +4.4%. Price declines are visible in goods, but not in services yet. Housing has weakened, but the labor market and wage growth remain strong. Covid-19 is no longer seen as an economic risk.
    Debt-ceiling must be raise timely to prevent chaos; the Fed is an agent of the Treasury and cannot protect from consequences of failure; there is no coordination with the ongoing QT.
    State and local governments are flushed with cash and those projects may contribute to economic activity.
    Overtightening is preferred over under-tightening.
    Soft landing is possible and recession may be avoided.
    In the market actions that I kept an eye on, the stock market was strong and in the bond market, all Treasury rates fell (on a day of Fed rate hike announcement).
    https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/thread/158/fomc-statements-6-7-weeks?page=2&scrollTo=918
  • This Tale of Humira Made Me Doubt My Healthcare Holdings
    @mark
    Yes should be "less" Thanks. Don't get me started on VA! They do the best they can, given the restrictions imposed by politics.
    @BenWP
    Humira Story gets worse.
    From Barrons
    "ABBV ‘s anti-inflammatory drug Humira, one of the top-selling prescription drugs in history, is facing generic-style competition for the first time this week since its introduction 20 years ago.
    Hopes that competition would bring immediate cost savings was tamped down on Tuesday, however, when Amgen (ticker: AMGN) announced a pricing scheme for its generic-style competitor that raises new questions about how effective so-called biosimilars will be reducing spending on high-price drugs.
    The first, Amgen Amjevita, launches Tuesday. The company said early Tuesday it will sell Amjevita at two different list prices: One at 55% below Humira’s list price, and one at 5% below Humira’s list price. Humira’s list price is $6,922.62 for a four-week supply.
    Both prices buy the same product. It’s up to the middlemen known as pharmacy-benefit managers, or PBMs, which are generally owned by big insurance companies, to decide whether to pay the higher or lower price. The high-price version appears to be intended to allow Amgen to pay higher rebates to the PBMs.
    “This pricing strategy is likely designed to give PBMs and plans the flexibility to choose the version that suits their needs, either a low price/low rebate or high price/high rebate version depending on the plan’s individual strategy,” Cowen analyst Yaron Werber wrote in a note early Tuesday."
    Seems like this really should be illegal.
  • FOMC Statement, 2/1/23
    Whatever Powell said, it sure turned markets around. Most everything’s popping after a weak morning. The 10-Year Treasury has fallen to just over 3.4% having been over 3.5% earlier this week. Gold modestly up to $1960 - but nice 2%+ pop in the miners. ARKK up 4% for the day last look. S&P up 1% as of 3:15 PM. Of course anything can happen by end of day.
    One Bloomberg commentator calling the day’s action “a massive short cover…” Could be correct considering the widespread bearishness that’s been well documented in some of the posts here.
    Edit: Inexplicably, oil has fallen sharply today. Not what one might expect …
  • Jittery Investors Turn to Cash in Hunt for Yield - WSJ
    Feds raised interest rates today by .25%--I wonder if that will lead to another hike in MM and CD interest rates soon. In the fixed income options, I continue using MM and short term CDs, and whatever cash I hold is only temporary and in small amounts.
  • Bed, Bath & Beyond Default
    Sign of the times in retail. Stuff will probably be cheap at the stores closing as they clear out the inventory, but you won't be able to return it, and warrranties? Probably done:https://cnn.com/2023/02/01/business/bed-bath-beyond-closures-list/index.html
    The BBB closest to me has been closing for the past couple months. Last time I was there they were advertising 20-50% off but most of what was left was only 20% off so no better than a BBB coupon (and I was getting emails offering 25% off entire purchases at all their stores not just the one closing). They recently bumped the advertised percent off to 30-70%. The sale wasn’t being run by a liquidator so I was actually able to return something. Items with warranties should be OK since they’re from the manufacturer, except for their private label goods which I wouldn’t recommend.
    It’s a little sad as I remember going to the mothership in NJ (back when it was merely BB) as a kid.
  • This Tale of Humira Made Me Doubt My Healthcare Holdings
    @sma3 - Did you leave out the word "less" in your statement "The VA spent 54% than Medicare part D because they can negotiate"?
    Maybe true but they are still sticking this vet with a much less effective medication to feed their bottom line. I speak of Symbicort v. Wixela.
  • Jittery Investors Turn to Cash in Hunt for Yield - WSJ
    Anybody know off the top of your head what % of the Government funds ae state tax exempt?
    SPAXX is 75% Repos. I am looking for the statement from Fidelity about this but it is hard to find
  • This Tale of Humira Made Me Doubt My Healthcare Holdings
    The VA spent 54% than Medicare part D because they can negotiate
    Saved 48% on Brand name drugs. Doesn't separate biologics (Humira) per say
    https://www.gao.gov/products/gao-21-111
  • Rimrock Core Bond Fund to be liquidated
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1753394/000121390023006585/s148703_497.htm
    497 1 s148703_497.htm 497
    RIMROCK FUNDS TRUST
    (the “Trust”)
    Rimrock Core Bond Fund
    SUPPLEMENT DATED FEBRUARY 1, 2023 TO THE SUMMARY PROSPECTUS, PROSPECTUS,
    AND STATEMENT OF ADDITIONAL INFORMATION EACH DATED SEPTEMBER 28, 2022
    At the recommendation of Rimrock Capital Management, LLC, the Trust’s investment adviser, the Board of Trustees of the Trust (the “Board”) has approved the liquidation and termination of the Rimrock Core Bond Fund (the “Fund”) as a result of, among other factors, challenges faced by the Fund in conducting its business and operations in an economically viable manner under current market conditions. The Board approved the liquidation pursuant to the provisions of the Trust’s Agreement and Declaration of Trust after making a determination that the liquidation of the Fund is in the best interests of the Fund and its shareholders.
    Effective immediately, shares of the Fund will no longer be available for purchase by new or existing investors. The liquidation of the Fund is scheduled to take place on or about February 28, 2023 (the “Liquidation Date”).
    On or before the Liquidation Date, the Fund will seek to convert substantially all of its respective portfolio securities and other assets to cash or cash equivalents. Therefore, the Fund may depart from its stated investment objectives and policies as it prepares to liquidate its assets and distribute them to shareholders. Any shares of the Fund outstanding on the Liquidation Date will be automatically redeemed on that date. As soon as practicable after the Liquidation Date, the Fund will distribute pro rata to the Fund’s shareholders of record, as of the close of business on the Liquidation Date, all of the remaining assets of the Fund, after paying, or setting aside the amount to pay, any expenses and liabilities of the Fund. At any time prior to the Liquidation Date, shareholders may redeem their shares of the Fund pursuant to the procedures set forth under “How to Sell Your Fund Shares” in the Funds’ prospectus.
    The Fund has the ability to distribute income and/or net capital gains on or prior to the Liquidation Date in order to reduce Fund-level taxes. For taxable shareholders, the automatic redemption on the Liquidation Date should generally be treated like other redemptions of shares, that is, as a sale by the shareholder that may result in a gain or loss to the shareholder for U.S. federal income tax purposes. Shareholders should contact their tax advisor to discuss the income tax consequences of the liquidation.
    Please retain this supplement with your Summary Prospectus, Prospectus and
    Statement of Additional Information.
  • The Last Ten Days Have Been the Hottest in a While (2023 Market Observations)
    Glad to see @MikeM keeps such punctilious records. FWIW I record only year-end portfolio change. As long as my office app doesn’t get hacked, I’m well fortified (with numbers). But couldn’t tell you what happened in any particular month. Of course, there are the charts.
    Haven’t looked yet at Catch’s latest chart. But will do so. Thanks @catch22 & @Yogibearbull for your labors.
    Edit: Geez - If I’m reading Catch’s chart correctly, it looks like a peak in early 2022. Perhaps the Wikipedia article hasn’t been updated. Also could be one gives the intra-day high and the other the closing high.
    @hank, Twin Peaks :)
    image
  • The Last Ten Days Have Been the Hottest in a While (2023 Market Observations)
    Well, Yogi and I are playing with charts at the same time. As Yogi noted, both late 2021 and early 2022 found high points.
    Note: the below chart is NAV prices WITH distributions included. SPY had a distribution on Dec. 17, 2021.
    SPY chart, all of 2021 and 2022 for a quick view, too.