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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Top 20 ETF Cash Burns
    Crap, that is a lot of money lost! Just the three top funds ETFs, they sum up to $40 billions.
    I can see ARK Innovation ETF, can loss ton of money from speculative bets. Vanguard Total bond market index, BND, for example, is in just about every investor’s portfolios including target date funds and 529 plans.
  • US Futures – PM

    As of 0912:
    SP -23.25
    YM -164
    Much better than when the overnight session opened...we'll see soon enough.
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    Adding more to 6 month T bill and RSIIX, River Park Strategic Income, Institutional. This fund is on NTF platform at Vanguard whereas Fidelity charges $50.
    David provided a detailed write-up on RSIIX/RSIVX.
    https://mutualfundobserver.com/2023/04/riverpark-strategic-income-fund-rsivx-april-2023/
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    Hi guys,
    Some old news.....
    In the pullback, bought some PP&L for Mrs. Pudd's IRA --- a small starting position. Bought it at a 52-week low. Will add from there. It's a long term hold.....she is still over 90% in CDs.
    Me? I'm still losing money in the market. I may soon have to ask for a loan from her 'til things get better down the road. As of right now, looking for the year end rally. Hoping to do some selling into it. Still worried about healthcare. Seems the beatings are never ending.
    God bless
    the Pudd
    p.s., Hank----love it! lol
  • Buying Individual 3-Month Treasuries vs. a Short-Term Treasury ETF-- Thoughts?
    Agree than 3 month T bill is good for yield over 5.3% (1/4 of that for 3 months). So I am buying longer duration T bills, 6 months and 1 year T bills. 6 month is the sweet spot.
    Buying individual T bills and rolling it when they mature takes a bit of work. Fidelity has that feature but Vanguard does not. Short term treasury ETFs (typically 2 yr duration) have more volatility as yields move upward. In term of trading, ETFs are liquid and easy to trade. I have not sold T bills before maturity but I understand they are readily bought and sold in secondary market. So there are plus and minuses on both options, and I use both of them.
    USFR is another safe option as @yogibb noted earlier.
  • within a hair's width of a massive misjudgment: a cautionary tale
    Several people have commented in other posts about cumulative performance figures being distorted by a recent year's hot performance ("what have you done for me lately"), including Prof. Snowball, me, and others.
    In Prof. Snowball's piece (linked to above, and here), he praises BRUFX by looking at "three metrics across more meaningful stretches: multiple decades, full market cycles and the last two market crashes." BRSVX hasn't been around nearly as long as BRUFX; it started in Oct 2003. With this limitation in mind, here are the data for AVALX, PVFIX, BRSVX. I included IJS (S&P 600 value ETF) as a benchmark in the Portfolio Visualizer link for each period but did not transcribe its figures below.

    Period CAGR Std Dev Sharpe Ratio
    AVALX PVFIX BRSVX AVALX PVFIX BRSVX AVALX PVFIX BRSVX
    15 yr 11.02% 5.54% 9.51% 28.77% 10.78% 22.81% 0.75 0.69 0.72
    Full Cycle 2007-2020
    6.81% 4.59% 5.24% 28.18% 10.20% 21.97% 0.35 0.41 0.30
    Down Cycle 2007-2009
    -5.09% 2.65% -9.59% 36.83% 11.35% 28.03% -0.01 0.11 -0.37
    Looking at these broader picture numbers, it seems not so much that BRSVX benefited from one hot year, but rather that it doesn't do quite so well in down years. Comparing the BRSVX with AVALX not by a calendar year (i.e. 2020), but trough to peak (roughly 3/19/20 - 6/4/21), one sees similar performance though following different paths.
    http://stockcharts.com/h-perf/ui?s=BRSVX&compare=AVALX&id=p85687049134
    It's in the latter half of 2021, when the market turned and AVALX's greater volatility worked to its detriment that the funds diverged radically.
    https://stockcharts.com/h-perf/ui?s=BRSVX&compare=AVALX,IJS&id=p37670197904
    PVFIX is certainly a steady performer. But at a cost of way underperforming in good years. From its chart (see the 15 year performance link above), it almost looks like a SCV cousin of RPHYX - ridiculously steady relative to peers. Something I value in a "near cash" fund. But in an equity fund, my personal risk tolerance is a bit higher than that.
    If you like AVALX, did you look into DFFVX? A clone of it is available in variable annuities, e.g. TIAA. So unlike the Fidelity fund that is used only internally by Fidelity, some investors could access this fund (sort of).
  • Barron’s Funds Quarterly (2023/Q3–October 9, 2023)
    Barron’s Funds Quarterly (2023/Q3–October 9, 2023)
    https://www.barrons.com/topics/mutual-funds-quarterly
    (Performance data quoted in this Supplement are for 2023/Q3 and YTD to 9/30/23)
    Pg L2: SMALL-CAPs (SCs) have attractive relative valuations and their time may finally come; SC-value is especially attractive (some energy, financials, regional banks). But recession poses a high danger for SCs; they may be fine with SOFT LANDING. Mentioned are:
    SC-Value AVUV, QRSVX, RYSEX
    SC-Blend DFAS,FDSCX, FOSCX, RPMAX
    SC-Growth FTXNX, NEAGX
    SC-Indexed IWM, IWO, IWN (poor Russell indexes; not selective); SPSM (better S&P index))
    SC-Foreign DRIOX, FISMX, MOWNX
    All-Cap FLPSX (heavy in SC, MC, foreign)
    (By @LewisBraham at MFO)
    Pg L6: BEST MONEY MARKET Funds (MMFs). M-Mkt funds have attracted huge inflows. They offer high rates, safety and liquidity. MMF ERs matter the most. (The 2014/16 reforms introduced gates/redemption fees and 3 types of MMFs – Government, Prime-Retail, Prime-Institutional). The new 2023 reforms have removed the gates (i.e. the problematic redemption suspensions) but will allow redemption/liquidity fees when there are heavy daily outflows (5%+ of AUM). So, basically, the distinction between the Government and Prime-Retail MMFs will become less significant for large MMFs. (I don’t recall Barron’s doing the Best MMFs before)
    Government MMFs AEAXX, AMAXX, FOBXX, INAXX, PCEXX
    Prime-Retail FMEXX, GMGXX, IPPXX, TSCXX, VMRXX
    Treasury MMFs BITXX, FZFXX, GABXX, PRTXX, UATXX
    Muni MMFs FMOXX, GMHXX, MOTXX, SWTXX, VMSXX
    Fund news from elsewhere in Barron’s (Parts 1 & 2).
    STREETWISE. Hurt by rising rates, REITs are now attractive. Their yields and FFOs are good; they trade at discounts from book values. REITs are better capitalized than private property owners and should benefit from the CRE weakness/consolidation; some bigger REITs may buy smaller REITs. There are growth/”hare” REITs – hotels (HST, RHP), industrial (CDP, FR), drug research facilities, apartments (ARE, CPT, UDR), senior housing (LTC, SBRA); and income/”tortoise” REITs – casinos (GLPI, VICI), nursing centers, ground leases. What about office REITs? Forget them! Headwinds include higher rates, tighter credit conditions, recession. (Real-estate has been a GICS sector since 2016; mREITs have remained with the financials.)
    INCOME. Attractive PREFERREDs include the ETFs EPEI, PFF; the CEFs FFC, JPC; and individual preferreds from C, GS, WFC, etc (both $25 & $1,000). Also look at JUNIOR CORPORATE bonds from ENB and APOS/APO.
    Pg L29: In 2023/Q3 (SP500 -3.27%): Among general equity funds, the best was SC-value -1.79%, and the worst was SC-growth -6.32%; ALL general equity categories were NEGATIVE. Among other equity funds, the best was natural resources +11.99%, and the worst were precious metals -9.32%, utilities -8.83% (strange mix). Among fixed-income funds, domestic long-term FI -0.98%, world income -1.86%; ALL FI categories were NEGATIVE (FI isn’t very refined in Lipper mutual fund categories listed in Barron’s).
    LINK
  • within a hair's width of a massive misjudgment: a cautionary tale
    Red flags for BRSVX in gross data include Morningstar 5*, Bronze; high SD. Of course, the chart tells all - all the fun was in 2021.
    StockCharts, 3 Yrs https://stockcharts.com/h-perf/ui?s=BRSVX&compare=IJR,SPSM&id=p45673872103
  • within a hair's width of a massive misjudgment: a cautionary tale
    In the spirit of looking differently:
    Style boxes, and fund names, are becoming less than useful reference points. Anything based on the S&P 400 midcap range shows up in the small cap box. Funds that tread in less popular names from the 500, like SPGP, are more than half midcap. Vanguard value funds, like VSIAX and VMVAX, are half blend, or more. Lipper says RWJ is core, M* says value. FMIMX is a midcap blend, or a smallcap core, despite the 13.68 PE forward.
    If I am looking for small caps, I now include the whole range of mid and small caps in my MFO premium search. Then I look for a Martin ratio => 1, plus alpha greater than zero, expense ratio <= 1, and since COVID for the first pass.
    Adjust the expense ratio if you are on the lookout for expensive boutiques.
    Once the results are in, I add the columns that I associate with "value." These days I am especially interested in their debt rating. There may be more naked swimmers out there yet to be revealed.
    I have this search saved, and I am looking forward to seeing the results after the September data is loaded.
  • within a hair's width of a massive misjudgment: a cautionary tale
    I'm still learning to navigate in a world in which the Morningstar fund screener is ... well, worthless. A once-useful tool has been reduced to being able to answer a single question: "what does Morningstar think about this fund?" Star rating, analyst rating, ESG rating: yes, yes, yes. Comparisons of absolute and risk-adjusted returns over meaningful periods? Go 'way, kid, ya bother me!
    Today's adventure sought to answer the question: what are the most consistently solid small cap value funds around? I used MFO Premium to look at domestic and global funds, checked Sharpe and APR for the past 3-, 5-, 7-, 9- and 11-year periods. I found two disappointments: two Great Owl funds were consistently in or around the top five, but one was only available to Fidelity fund managers (Fido Series Intrinsic Opps) and the other (Kinetic Small Cap Opps) had a 41% stake in a single stock, Texas Land & Power.
    Pinnacle Value and Aegis Value were frequently, but not always, top five funds. They're both rock solid, distinctive, tiny one-man operations.
    The surprise was Bridgeway Small Cap Value, the fund that was in the top five more often that any other. Small- to micro-cap. 130 names. Quant. Five star.
    All of which I was going to share until I scanned its Morningstar profile and noticed that its success was entirely driven by one year: 2021. The fund made north of 67% and left everyone in the dust. That number then elevated all of the trailing comparisons. It otherwise trailed more than two-thirds of its peers in five of the past 11 years. It's trailed its index six times but I have no idea of what to make of it since it's a custom Morningstar index which apparently cannot be entered into their charting tool to generate a detailed comparison ... though I can get the index denominated in Euros, pounds, Canadian dollars...). Overall, 2020-2022 was a solid stretch for the fund. 2013-19 and 2023, not so much.
    All of which I share as a cautionary tale: look carefully, then look again, differently.
  • Buying Individual 3-Month Treasuries vs. a Short-Term Treasury ETF-- Thoughts?
    I am using USFR (floating-rate Treasury Note ETF). These FRNs pay 3m yield (reset weekly, so little duration) PLUS a spread MINUS the ETF ER (15 bps). The FRNs have been attractive since mid-2022 when the Fed started raising rates. Think of FRNs as 3m on weekly roll.
  • Treasury Rate Watch
    Yahoo historical prices show TYX yield hitting 5.05 earlier, back down in the 4.90s since. The 20y is solidly > 5%, 5.13 as I type.
  • Treasury Rate Watch
    On VERY strong jobs report & BIDEN's news conference later (probably on jobs), today may be the day the 30-yr crosses 5% during market hours. The link in OP is a LIVE link, so click it to refresh.
    https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/^TYX?p=^TYX
    Edit/Add. 5%+ print for $TYX (30-yr) at StockCharts.
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$TYX&amp;p=D&amp;b=5&amp;g=0&amp;id=p32355405502
  • Advocate Rising Rate Hedge ETF will be liquidated
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1593547/000139834423018996/fp0085383-1_497.htm
    497 1 fp0085383-1_497.htm
    THE ADVISORS’ INNER CIRCLE FUND III
    (the “Trust”)
    Advocate Rising Rate Hedge ETF
    (the “Fund”)
    Supplement dated October 5, 2023 to the Fund’s Summary Prospectus, Prospectus and
    Statement of Additional Information (“SAI”),
    each dated January 28, 2023, as supplemented
    This supplement provides new and additional information beyond that contained in the Summary Prospectus, Prospectus and SAI, and should be read in conjunction with the Summary Prospectus, Prospectus and SAI.
    The Board of Trustees of the Trust, at the recommendation of Advocate Capital Management, LLC (the “Adviser”), the investment adviser of the Fund, has approved a plan of liquidation providing for the liquidation of the Fund’s assets and the distribution of the net proceeds pro rata to the Fund’s shareholders. The Fund will create and redeem creation units through October 24, 2023 (the “Closing Date”), which will also be the last day that the Fund’s shares trade on NYSE Arca, Inc. (the “Exchange”), the Fund’s principal listing exchange. The Fund is expected to cease operations and liquidate on or about October 31, 2023 (the “Liquidation Date”).
    In anticipation of the liquidation of the Fund, the Adviser may manage the Fund in a manner intended to facilitate the Fund’s orderly liquidation, such as by holding cash or making investments in other highly liquid assets. As a result, during this time, all or a portion of the Fund may not be invested in a manner consistent with its stated investment strategies, which may prevent the Fund from achieving its investment objective.
    Shareholders of the Fund may sell their Fund shares on the Exchange on or before the Closing Date. Customary brokerage charges may apply to such transactions. After the Closing Date, there can be no guarantee that there will be a market for the Fund’s shares. For those Fund shareholders that do not sell their shares on or before the Closing Date, the Fund will distribute to each such shareholder, on or promptly after the Liquidation Date, a liquidating cash distribution equal in value to the shareholder’s interest in the net assets of the Fund as of the Liquidation Date.
    The liquidation distribution amount will include any accrued income and capital gains, will be treated as a payment in exchange for shares and will generally be a taxable event for shareholders investing through taxable accounts. You should consult your personal tax advisor concerning your particular tax situation. Shareholders remaining in the Fund on the Liquidation Date will not be charged any transaction fees by the Fund. However, the net asset value of the Fund on the Liquidation Date will reflect costs of liquidating the Fund. Shareholders will receive liquidation proceeds as soon as practicable after the Liquidation Date.
    PLEASE RETAIN THIS SUPPLEMENT FOR FUTURE REFERENCE.
    ADV-SK-001-0100
  • M* Interview with TRP's David Giroux
    Excellent interview, and I agree with a lot of what he says -- especially with his investing style and comments about utilities. The last question is precisely why I like being along for the ride in PRWCX (and potentially TCAP) because it suggests he still has his priorities right.
    "People who know me, just know I’m not wired to rest on my laurels or take it easy. I’m just not wired that way. I think we talked about last time when I was on the podcast, I had won couple of Morningstar Manager of the Year awards, trophies. I gave one away to my APM, Steven Krichbaum, and one is in a bag somewhere down in the basement that I don’t know where it is, honestly. And then, I’ve won 18 or 19 awards from Lipper. I’ve never asked for a plaque. I’ve never received a plaque. I don’t want a plaque. I don’t want reminders of past performance making me soft. That’s really important for me. I want to look forward, not backward. That’s really, really important."
    < - >
    "The last thing I would say is—and it puts a little pressure on me, honestly—is there are so many people that are counting on me: clients, friends, family, my mother, my colleagues, my colleagues’ families, people I grew up with, advisors, and they’ve kind of become accustomed, they’ve come used to generating incredible returns over time. You do it for 15 to 16 years in a row, they expect you to do it next 15 to 16 years. And I have this horrible fear of letting them down. And I’m going to do everything in my power every day that I’m doing this job to make sure that I never let them down. I think if I underperform, my mom is going to be pissed. So, I got to make sure I keep delivering for my clients and my family. And we’re going to continue to work as hard as we possibly can as a team to continue to do that."
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    Added a bit this morning to a beaten down precious metals / natural resources CEF. Funds came from an international bond fund and a consumers staples stock that have held up relatively well adimst the recent carnage.
    Re: metals / Gold is flirting with $1800 level. I doubt it will stay below $1800 for long. But could be wrong.
    image
  • Vanguard Admiral Minimums
    I wrote to Vanguard for temporary waiver for Admiral min of $50K. I cited bad 3-yr stretch for hybrids & that new money cannot be added to IRAs in retirement (only earnings from work can be contributed).
    Vanguard's reply, after several days, was that it is looking into the matter.
    If Vanguard's final response is negative, I will just SELL those Admiral hybrids (under $50K) ahead of Investor-conversion deadline and replace them with appropriate combo of TCAF + USFR. In the bigger scheme of things, the ER change doesn't matter. But Vanguard needs to have some pushbacks. After Vanguard forced conversion to brokerage, I am not limited to Vanguard funds.
  • Jason Zweig
    JZ, probably the most thoughtful of us, hasn't published an entire since May. When I reached out, the auto-reply was "I'm on book leave for the next several months." Interesting. He gave no hint that his 5/26 column (on cash) would be his last for a while.
    I'll be curious to hear if he responds to my note. He's been very polite in the past.