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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • media economy coverage
    If I were still teaching high school, but now in magaland, this would be about the only kind of material examples possible, but then, it's still about all you need to know:
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2021/12/06/black-couple-home-value-white-washing/
    Possibly, if I was careful, I could add in material about the very neighborhood whither I moved at age 7 and grew up in thereafter, until heading East for college, the project of the father of redlining, whose work is here very gently described:
    tinyurl.com/56bh3hfk
  • VG Multisector Bond Fund VMSIX/VMSAX
    Now I see where that foreign figure comes from - click on the issuer type "tab" under "Weighted Exposure".
    The latest SEC filings (including monthly filings) go only through September. Looking at the annual report (with Sept data), only 75% of the portfolio was domestic, so 25% was foreign. A reallocation of over 15% of the portfolio (from foreign to domestic) in three months - from Sept to Dec - would be quite substantial.
    More likely Vanguard is counting only ex-US sovereign debt as foreign debt and counting all other foreign debt (such as Air Canada and Credit Suisse AG) in various other buckets of corporate bonds.
    Counting this way, it does look like 100% of Vanguard's "foreign" (i.e. sovereign) debt is EM. In Sept. that was 9.7% of the fund's portfolio (vs. 9.1% in Dec.).
    Contrast that with the clear breakdown Fidelity gives for FADMX, where foreign corporate debt still counts as foreign debt:
    Foreign Developed-Markets Debt		5.06%
    Corporate Bonds 2.29%
    Sovereign Bonds 2.73%
    Cash & Net Other Assets 0.03%
    Emerging-Markets Debt 15.76%
    Corporate Bonds 4.02%
    Sovereign Bonds 10.80%
    Floating-Rate Debt 0.40%
    Cash & Net Other Assets 0.55%
    I generally assume that promo material borrows from legal filings - companies risk suits if they deviate. What the VG prospectus says is:
    Under normal circumstances, the Fund will invest at least 80% of its assets in bonds, which include fixed income securities such as corporate bonds; emerging market bonds; and U.S. Treasury obligations and other U.S. government and agency securities
    While the wording doesn't say that this list is exhaustive ("bonds which include ...."), developed market debt is conspicuous by its absence. The odd wording is consistent with not considering corporate foreign debt to be foreign debt.
  • VG Multisector Bond Fund VMSIX/VMSAX
    Vanguard is using an incremental approach.
    After having funds in core, core-plus, HY, EM bond categories, a multisector bond fund is the next step, as noted by @Observant1. I will just watch it for now as I do have Vanguard accounts.
    @msf, I see the website showing foreign as 9.1% (total 52.7% investment-grade). May be the promos just highlighted IG, HY and EM.
    https://investor.vanguard.com/investment-products/mutual-funds/profile/vmsix#portfolio-composition
  • Adanis empire lost 51 billions in 48 hrs
    An interesting story that is unfolding.
    Questions raised in the US & Indian media include why the sudden Hindenburg interest in an obscure business empire far away. Adani companies aren't even listed in the US.
    Notably, the Hindenburg report came just ahead of a big local stock offering by Adani Group.
    Also be aware that Indian accounting rules and business empire building techniques differ.
    On the latter, it is common for Indian conglomerates to acquire controlling stakes of 20-30% and become manager-operator of the entities. So, unlike in the US, many companies in these groups aren't wholly-owned subsidiaries. Tatas, Birlas, Ambanis, Mahendras, Adanis and many others (I have included only the names more familiar in the US) grew that way. Both Ambani & Adani are close to Indian Prime Minister Modi.
    BTW, Tata Motors/TTM recently announced that it is withdrawing its US listing due to lack of interest. https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TTM/profile?p=TTM
    Several Indian companies are listed in the US.
    https://m.dailyhunt.in/news/india/english/businessupturn-epaper-dhc9e2ecf265b34d49a4518907d16772ea/indian+companies+that+are+traded+on+nyse+and+nasdaq-newsid-n197957212
  • Jittery Investors Turn to Cash in Hunt for Yield - WSJ
    Capital One Bank is paying 3.3% for their Savings Account, and 4.15% for one year CDs. That is still below the 4.27% and 4.42% for a Money Market fund at Schwab. and I can get one year CDs at Schwab for a 4.75% Coupon rate. Capital One offers some liquidity advantages for me, with a local branch that appeals to my wife, and CD penalities for early termination is much less "painful" than brokerage CDs at Schwab. You take a hit on interest rate amounts at Capital One, but not as significant as some might expect.
  • Jittery Investors Turn to Cash in Hunt for Yield - WSJ
    With little more effort, one can also buy T-Bills to beat the m-mkt funds.
    I also read a story that banks are losing deposits because bank accounts (savings, online savings, m-mkt accounts) haven't kept up with rising rates. But banks don't care as their lending business has been slow too and the Fed pays them 4.4% to park their reserves at the Fed.
    Edit/Add: LINK1 LINK2
  • Jittery Investors Turn to Cash in Hunt for Yield - WSJ
    ”The dash for cash on Wall Street is back on. Investors have added about $135 billion to global money-market funds over the past four weeks … through Jan. 18. That is the best stretch since the four-week period ended May 2020, when those funds logged roughly $175 billion in net inflows …
    “Increased cash allocations are the latest sign of caution among investors who are questioning whether the recent rebound in stocks and bonds will continue … The average return on U.S. money-market funds this month is 4.12%, the highest yield since the 2008 financial crisis … The S&P 500, on the other hand, has a dividend yield of about 1.6%.”

    By the end of December, assets sitting in money-market funds hit a record $5.18 trillion … That surpassed the previous high of $5.16 trillion from May 2020 … In December, individual investors slightly lowered the share of cash in their portfolios to about 21.8%, below the historical average of roughly 22.5% … The reading still marks one of the highest levels since May 2020. In comparison, stock and stock fund allocations are at about 63.9%, above the historical average of around 61.5%.
    Excerpted from: The Wall Street Journal (Print Edition) January 26, 2023 (Narrative edited for brevity. Attribution to data sources omitted for brevity).
    You’ll likely need a WSJ subscription to access story online.
  • Is 2023 the time to wade back into bond funds? Thoughts?
    +1 Thanks @yogibearbull
    “but redemptions are limited to 5% of AUM quarterly.”
  • Is 2023 the time to wade back into bond funds? Thoughts?
    Based on Ms. Sonal Desai input I am looking into an emerging market bond fund EADOX. Is anyone else considering them?
    I've been tracking, but do not own, AGEPX. It's offered as a frontier-market bond fund. Morningstar pegs its yield at 8.75%. I thought that was higher than you could find anywhere else, but that Eaton Vance fund is a tiny bit higher. For what it's worth, the EV fund gets just a neutral ranking, while AGEPX is awarded a bronze decoration at Morningstar. But then again, Morningstar's proprietary system seems indecipherable. And one of those two is granted 5 stars, while the other holds a 4-star rating. Check the monthly pay-outs, if you hasve not done it. One reason I'm not yet in AGEPX is because I'm getting monthly divs that are as good or better in my domestic junk bond fund: TUHYX. I'm still behind the curve in terms of my losses in that fund, but the YTD move is quite positive, so far. So, I'm riding the wave.
  • media economy coverage
    So, one famous maker of blue jeans hired Vietnamese workers because they could be paid in peanuts. The jeans were manufactured, finished, ready to wear. Then they were shipped to Saipan.
    Reread the article you cited. All the manufacturing was done in Saipan, USA.
    The island of Saipan is in the US Commonwealth of the Northern Marianas Islands (CNMI). Beginning in the 1980s, many clothing manufacturers had their garments made in Saipan because such items could be labelled “Made in the USA”. ...
    In 1999, three separate lawsuits were filed in US state and federal courts against numerous American retail apparel companies and Saipan-based garment factories.
    That's a way of circumventing US labor laws; nevertheless, those workers were employed in the USA, which is all that the label "Made in the USA" communicates. It represents jobs, not wages or working conditions.
    For a product to be called Made in USA, or claimed to be of domestic origin without qualifications or limits on the claim, the product must be "all or virtually all" made in the U.S. The term "United States," as referred to in the Enforcement Policy Statement, includes the 50 states, the District of Columbia, and the U.S. territories and possessions.
    https://www.ftc.gov/business-guidance/resources/complying-made-usa-standard
    Side note: I haven't been able to verify the statement that these were Vietnamese workers. The Business & Human Rights piece cited in turn cites an SFGate (SF Chronicle) piece saying that "The lawsuit claimed that thousands of workers, including many from China and the Philippines ...".
    An extensive piece on this suit can be found here:
    http://www.natcath.org/NCR_Online/archives2/2001c/090701/090701a.htm
    According to U.S. government reports and information contained in lawsuits, garment workers from China, the Philippines, Bangladesh, Thailand and elsewhere pay $2,000 to $7,000 per worker to obtain jobs in the Mariana Islands that frequently have them working 12 hours a day, seven days a week for $3.05 an hour, often without overtime pay.
    ...
    in 1998, then-Interior Secretary Bruce Babbitt spoke of the relationship established between the U.S. Congress and the Mariana Islands in 1976 that was intended to provide a transitional economic stimulus but which has produced an experiment “gone horribly awry. It has created a plantation economy, dependent upon the massive importation on a continuing basis of low-paid, vulnerable, short-term indentured workers.” Babbit called the situation in the Northern Mariana Islands a “disgrace.”
    Most of the garment workers in Saipan come from China.
    That was then. Now:
    The Fair Minimum Wage Act of 2007 ... included a provision to apply U.S. minimum wage to the CNMI [Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands], increasing the CNMI’s minimum wage in periodic increments until it reached the federal minimum wage of $7.25, which it did on September 30, 2018
    https://www.gao.gov/assets/gao-22-105271.pdf
  • Is 2023 the time to wade back into bond funds? Thoughts?
    Yes, I always pay attention when she's on-air. Of course, most of what she's pushing are Franklin products. For comparison:
    FHYVX. $100k threshold.
    Yield: 4.35%
    E.R. 0.55%
    Performance YTD: +3.78%, in 51st percentile among peers.
    (Franklin typically requires a front-load. Dunno, in this case.)
    ****************
    HYMU threshold = the cost of one share. (ETF. $22.02 today.)
    Yield: 4.02%
    E.R 0.35%
    YTD: +4.36%, in top 22% among peers. But are junk bond ETFs in a different category altogether, re: FHYVX?
    https://www.franklintempleton.com/articles/blogs/meet-the-manager-sonal-desai
  • Is 2023 the time to wade back into bond funds? Thoughts?
    Sonal Desai from Franklin Templeton focused on income and bond funds. LINK1 LINK2
    "5-yr TIPS; FRIAX (hybrid); CPREX (private real estate); EADOX, FHYVX, IGSB, SIDCX (Part 3); gradually increasing duration."
  • Is 2023 the time to wade back into bond funds? Thoughts?
    @hank. thank you. Yes, interesting. PRWCX is still 36% of portfolio, here.
    "I echo the view expressed here that fixed income hasn't been this attractive in a long time. We invest in high-quality high-yield bonds and high-quality leveraged loans—issuers whose Ebitda isn't volatile and that have a large EV [enterprise value] cushion, relative to their debt."
    I wrote on a different thread about bonds just yesterday. Things run in cycles, yes. So today's King of the Road will be next year's Loser, often. For now, I'm loving the ride on these particular ponies:
    SCHP (TIPS, not junk.)
    HYDB
    TUHYX
    PRCPX
    Bonds are up to 32% of my portfolio today. And a soft rain is falling here in Honolulu.
    Of course, with over $50M at his disposal, uncle David is able to play with INDIVIDUAL bonds, with their much bigger thresholds. Morningstar shows PRWCX holding 31.46% of its portfolio in bonds. That might be stale, by now.
  • Is 2023 the time to wade back into bond funds? Thoughts?
    Some thoughts on bonds from David Giroux, manager of PRWCX, in this week’s Barron’s:
    * “My last recommendation is a bond. I echo the view expressed here that fixed income hasn't been this attractive in a long time. We invest in high-quality high-yield bonds and high-quality leveraged loans—issuers whose Ebitda isn't volatile and that have a large EV [enterprise value] cushion, relative to their debt. You can get yields of 7% to 8% today in the high-yield and leveraged-loan market without taking on bankruptcy risk.
    “My pick is the Hub International 7% coupon unsecured bond that matures on May 1, 2026, trading for $99. This is a bond that tends to be reasonably liquid, given its large size, and should be able to be purchased through most, if not all, brokerage accounts. Hub is one of the largest private midmarket insurance brokerages. It is an attractive business with low capital intensity, long-term organic growth in the mid-single digits, and low cyclicality … “

    The above is Giroux’s final (fifth) recommendation. For what interest it may hold, following are the 4 equity investments he recommends:
    - GE HealthCare Technologies GEHC $58.95
    - Avantor AVTR $20.07
    - Fortive FTV $65.54
    - NXP Semiconductors NXPI $159.63
    * Excerpt & additional information from: Barron’s “Roundtable III” - January 30, 2023 print edition.
    Extra-topical - But makes you wonder why he was high on AMZN a year ago when it was 30% more expensive but fails to mention it this year? But I digress …. :)
  • AAII Sentiment Survey, 1/25/23
    Market breadth extremely strong and remain elevated past 3 4 wks
    Part due to Tsla good er sustain rally last few days
    See what will uncle Powell say in two wks. Maybe another consecutive 0.25 0.25 then stop. Inflation appeared improved compared 6 months ago
    It's been a reasonable onpar Earning weeks so far
    Just like that everyone forgot we had massive draws down in tech -40 45% last year /68% retracement in cryptos
    Nasdaq sp500 all past 200 days ma past 24 48 hrs... Most of my cover call options expired itm didn't expect 10 12% swing in few wks
  • AAII Sentiment Survey, 1/25/23
    From Barron's:
    By Alex Eule Friday, January 27
    "The January Effect. Stocks closed out another strong week, with the Nasdaq Composite, in particular, benefiting from the 2023 rebound. The tech-heavy index rose another 1% today, pushing its weekly gain to 4.3%. It's the Nasdaq's fourth-straight week in positive territory.
    The S&P 500 rose 0.25% on the day and 2.5% on the week, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average was essentially flat on the day but still up 1.8% this week.
    As investors look toward an end to rate hikes, growth-focused tech stocks have been the primary beneficiary. The Nasdaq is closing in on its best January in more than 20 years. With two trading days to go, the index is up 11% on the month, its best January since a 12.2% gain in January 2001.
    For a lot of folks, the '01 callback will come with bad memories. At the time, the market was still dealing with the dot-com crash. After the strong January, the Nasdaq went on to fall 30% through the rest of 2001. Ultimately, the Nasdaq didn't find its bottom until October 2002."
  • Wealthtrack - Weekly Investment Show
    Jan 28 Episode
    McLennan will examine the risks of monetary and fiscal tightening amidst high debt levels in the U.S. and discuss the types of companies that can succeed despite these challenges.


  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    Took just a smidgeon from both PRWCX and PRNEX and combined the amount from them both to buy PRCPX (junk bonds) shares.
    Portfolio X-Ray now shows:
    7% cash
    51 domestic stocks
    9 foreign stocks
    32 bonds