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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Crisis of HTM - Banks, Brokerages, Insurance, Pension Funds
    I might have pointed to Larry Summers as the Democratic poster boy for deregulation.
    Between 1992 and 2001, Summers held various positions in the US Treasury Department, including that of Treasury Secretary from 1999 to 2001. Summers has described the 1990’s as a time when “important steps” were taken to achieve “deregulation in key sectors of the economy” such as financial services. He has also said that during this period government officials and private financial interests collaborated in a spirit of cooperation “to provide the right framework for our financial industry to thrive.” Summers recommended before he left the Treasury Department that removing policies that “artificially constrict the size of markets” should remain a priority for the US government.
    Along with Robert Rubin and Alan Greenspan, Summers brought about elimination of key US financial regulations including the Glass-Steagall Act. He was particularly aggressive in his efforts to block regulations of derivatives, regulations that might have prevented the economic meltdown the US suffered in 2008. According to economist Dean Baker, "The policies he promoted as Treasury Secretary and in his subsequent writings led to the economic disaster that we now face."
    https://www.sourcewatch.org/index.php/Larry_Summers
    That's some of what Summers did while he was working in the government. In contrast, Barney Frank had left Congress years before attempts were made to weaken Dodd-Frank. As a private citizen, and as the bill in question was reaching the House for a vote, he wrote an opinion piece titled: "Why I would vote 'no' on Senate bill to amend Dodd-Frank".
    https://www.cnbc.com/2018/03/01/barney-frank-why-i-would-vote-no-on-senate-bill-to-amend-dodd-frank-commentary.html
    Though while objecting to the bill, he did not excoriate it. One of his objections was that the threshold for subjecting "large" banks to the most stringent level of examination was set too high. He would have preferred $125B, as opposed to $250B.
    Both Dems and Reps voted to loosen regulations. Bags of pus
    The opposition to the legislation, though in the minority, was also bipartisan. One Republican voted no.
    If calling that bipartisan sounds a bit weird, consider that 83% of the Democratic representatives voted against the legislation, while 99.6% of voting Republican representatives supported it.
    https://clerk.house.gov/Votes/2018216
  • I bonds and tax refund
    Thanks for your earlier tip @msf. I put in additional $ by year-end so to ensure the tax refund is over $5K. Just filed our return and will be getting two $2,500 I bonds for me and my wife.
  • I bonds and tax refund
    You can also hold the paper bonds yourself, perhaps in a safe deposit box.
    The mail in process isn't hard, though a tad more tedious than one would like. And you only have to create that second account once.
    As I've posted before, the USPS lost one $50 refund savings bond of mine (out of a $5000 total). TD replaced it many months after I reported it as never having been received. Unfortunately the replacement was another paper bond.
    So while you might have $1200 to send in, I'm stuck with a single $50 bond to have and to hold (or to mail in). I mailed in (converted) the other $4950 long ago.
  • Stable-Value (SV) Rates, 4/1/23
    TIAA Traditional (Accumulation) Rates
    No changes.
    Restricted RC 6.25%, RA 6.00%
    Flexible RCP 5.50%, SRA 5.25%, Newer IRAs 3.45%
    TSP G Fund hasn't updated yet (previous monthly rate was 4.125%).
    Options outside of workplace retirement plans include m-mkt funds, bank m-mkt accounts (FDIC insured), T-Bills, short-term brokered CDs.
    #401k #403b #StableValue #TIAA #TSP
    https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/thread/142/stable-value-sv-rates-monthly?page=2&scrollTo=995
  • Bank Rescue Plan
    From Bloomberg
    The FDIC told First Citizens on Tuesday it was claiming a $500 million profit linked to the increase in that company’s stock, which soared after the acquisition was sealed. The FDIC was entitled to the payment within five business days, the Raleigh, North Carolina-based bank said in a regulatory filing
  • I bonds and tax refund
    thanks Seems like a lot of trouble for $1200 refund. I think I will just apply it to estimates.
    Maybe if I overpaid by $5000 it would be more worthwhile!
  • 30-year Tips Article by William Bernstein
    Many writers often over-simply complex subject matter as black and white. Then the absolute terms can mislead their audience. I think the probability of further rate hike is declining since inflation appears to be slowing. This morning the Feb’s PCE increased by 0.5% y-o-y, lower than that of January 2023. The next FOMC meeting is in May. We will see what the Fed would do at that point. Powell has a way to become hawkish and reaffirm their fight against inflation while this inflation remains sticky due to many complex factors such as tight labor market.
    As for investment, short- and intermediate-term bond funds/ETFs make perfect sense in this environment. When the Fed announces the end of rate hike, it would be compelling to move to long duration bond.
  • I bonds and tax refund
    Lewis is right, I"ve done this. The conversion is easy but a nuisance.
    The TreasuryDirect instructions are here:
    https://treasurydirect.gov/savings-bonds/manage-bonds/convert-paper-to-electronic/#id-how-do-i-convert-my-ee-or-i-bonds--508815
    Basically, you create a separate (linked) account for converted bonds. You create a manifest (list) of bonds to convert, including their serial numbers and other info. You mail the savings bonds along with that manifest (printed out), and (these days) a few months later they'll show up in your account.
    There's no rush because you can't cash them out for at least a year. And should they get lost in the mail (either coming to you as part of your refund or going back to Treasury Direct), you can request replacements.
    The awkwardness is in having to handle the paper bonds and in having a different account number for the bonds at TD. Still a single login, so it's not too bad. And how often do you need to log in to look at these set-and-forget savings bonds?
  • Top institutional & fund holders - SCHW
    Seeking alpha had a decent comparison of the business models of SCHW vs IBKR
    Former 50% of revenues are investing clients cash balances
    Latter revenues comes from fees and managing bid ask spread for clients who want trading efficiency so are willing to pay for it
    I am getting adds comparing IBKR rates on their balances (4.5%) to SCHW and FIDO
  • Bank Rescue Plan
    I think the proposal to increase the FDIC limit (to say $1,000,000) and prorate the expense to the size of insurance you want makes the most sense
    The costs of the insurance should all be borne by the beneficiaries with a reasonable surplus every year to allow for future payouts. The program could run with a 3 to 5 year look back provision, so very large payouts occasionally could be replaced by future payments into the fund
    Most people and small businesses would only need one bank account but banks like SVB could continue to force some customers to keep larger accounts with them but pay for insurance. If you don't want to buy insurance, you are on your own.
  • 30-year Tips Article by William Bernstein
    Well said @LB. As an individual investor, cost of asset ownership is something I have absolute control. Thus, index funds and ETFs are preferred. So are those OEFs with lower expense ratio.
    With regard to TIPS, I would only consider the shortest duration individual TIPs of 5 year, and hold it till maturity. The only TIPS funds that I am interested are the new short duration TIPS fund from Vanguard, VTIP, and Blackrock’s STIP. I have no interest in longer duration TIPS such as 30 years, since many changes can take place. Same goes for TIPS funds and their year-to-year performance speaks for themselves
  • Bramshill Income Performance Fund to lower initial minimums
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1261788/000089418923002318/bramshilltapinvestminimums.htm
    497 1 bramshilltapinvestminimums.htm 497E
    Trust for Advised Portfolios
    Supplement dated March 30, 2023
    to the Prospectus dated July 31, 2022
    for the Bramshill Income Performance Fund
    We are pleased to inform you that effective April 29, 2023, the initial investment minimum for the Institutional Class of the Bramshill Income Performance Fund (the “Fund”) will decrease from $100,000 to $1,000 and the subsequent investment minimum will decrease from $5,000 to $100.
    Also effective April 29, 2023, the initial investment minimum for the Investor Class of the Fund will decrease from $1,000 to $100 and the subsequent investment minimum will decrease from $100 to no minimum.
    Effective April 29, 2023, the following changes are made to the Fund’s Prospectus:
    The table under “Purchase and Sale of Fund Shares” on page 7 of the Prospectus is replaced with the table below to reflect the new investment minimums:
    Institutional Class Investor Class
    Minimum Initial Investment
    $1,000 $100
    Minimum Subsequent Investment
    $100 No Minimum
    The first paragraph under “How to Buy Shares” on page 18 of the Prospectus is replaced with the paragraph below to reflect the new investment minimums:
    The minimum initial investment amount for the Institutional Class shares is $1,000 and the minimum subsequent investment amount is $100. The minimum initial investment amount for the Investor Class shares is $100 and there is no minimum subsequent investment amount.
  • Fund Allocations (Cumulative), 02/28/23
    There were minor decreases in stock allocations & increases in m-mkt allocations. The changes for OEFs + ETFs were based on a total AUM of about $30.07 trillion in the previous month, so +/- 1% change was about +/- $300.7 billion. Also note that these changes were from both fund inflows/outflows & price changes. #Funds #OEFs #ETFs #ICI
    OEFs & ETFs: Stocks 58.38%, Hybrids 5.21%, Bonds 19.89%, M-Mkt 16.52%
    https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/thread/245/fund-allocations-cumulative-monthly?page=2&scrollTo=994
  • AAII Sentiment Survey, 3/29/23
    Honestly, I don’t get the feeling that we’re in a nasty bear market or that things will worsen a lot. Of course there will be a recession at some point. But I don’t think we’ll re-test the lows of 2022 - unless the economy really falls off a cliff. I get a better sense from watching the Dow which topped out around 37,000 in late ‘21 / early ‘22 and then fell to around 29,500 mid-year ‘22 as best I can determine. I think success going forward depends a lot on countries / geographic regions chosen. Some may get a boost (from currency) if dollar continues down. And also individual companies may be better bets than the total market if one is willing to take the risk of investing in individual stocks. (But it’s not a small risk.)
    As the above demonstrates: “Any idiot can voice an opinion”. I’m not qualified to make such calls. Just saying how I try to position my own stuff.
  • M-Mkt Fund Vulnerabilities - YELLEN, 3/30/23
    If there is any place where the vulnerabilities of the system to runs and fire sales have been clear-cut, it is money market funds.
    ...
    Even without a fixed NAV, liquidity mismatch in other kinds of funds can still make them vulnerable to runs and fire sales.
    Falling between the cracks here are floating NAV money market funds - neither fixed NAV nor other (non-MM) kind of fund. I suspect this was an unintended omission.
    The alternative would be that she considers floating NAV MMFs to be relatively immune to runs and fire sales. That's not beyond the realm of possibility. The MMF runs she describes are due to funds breaking a buck and investors rushing for the gates (a la SVB, Reserve Fund) - first mover advantage.
    Floating NAV MMFs by definition can't break a buck - they aren't fixed to a $1 nominal NAV. Redemption values vary continuously (fractions of a percent) rather than discretely (1%, a penny at a time).
    FWIW, one can invest in floating NAV MMFs via Merrill. That's one of the very few advantages I can see in that brokerage, though one of which I'm not partaking.
    Footnote 13 (in the OP) is a cite to https://www.sec.gov/news/press-release/2021-258
    The proposed MMF rules she refers to would have removed redemption fees/gating, and imposed swing pricing on institutional funds. This 2021 proposal is still being worked on and seems to still be accepting comments (last one was Feb 2023).
    Proposal: https://www.sec.gov/rules/proposed/2021/34-93784.pdf
    Fact sheet: https://www.sec.gov/rules/proposed/2021/ic-34441-fact-sheet.pdf
    Comments: https://www.sec.gov/comments/s7-22-21/s72221.htm
    Mutual fund managers responded to the redemption fee/gating rules by managing the funds more conservatively so that the rules would never be triggered. They were concerned that if a fund got close to that point, investors would stampede out - first mover advantage redux.
    Or something else might spook investors. Say, a pandemic.
    Evidence indicates that SEC's reforms did not prevent runs during the COVID-19 pandemic. For example, prime MMFs—which can invest in all types of short-term debt instruments—held by institutional investors experienced net redemptions of about 30 percent of their total assets in a 2-week period in March 2020 (see figure). Some evidence also indicates SEC's reforms may have contributed to the runs. Some investors may have preemptively redeemed MMF shares to avoid incurring a liquidity fee or losing access to their funds under a redemption gate.
    https://www.gao.gov/products/gao-23-105535
    Notable in that report and in the SEC's proposal is the focus on institutional investors. (Swing pricing for institutional investors, relaxed restrictions on retail investors.) As with SVB, institutional investors are apparently the elephants in the room stomping on everyone else.
  • AAII Sentiment Survey, 3/29/23
    I saw that on Twitter. But +20% from the recent lows applies only to Nasdaq 100 QQQ/$NDX from the late-December lows, and not to Nasdaq Comp ONEQ/$COMPQ. Other major indexes had their lows in October and are still struggling.
    Ed Yardeni, neither a perma-bull nor a perma-bear, now has 4,600 for SP500. I am watching 4,300-4,600 range myself to do some asset reallocations. https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/us-stocks-could-end-14-110609639.html
  • AAII Sentiment Survey, 3/29/23
    AAII Sentiment Survey, 3/29/23
    For the week ending on 3/29/23, bearish remained the top sentiment (45.6%; very high) & bullish remained the bottom sentiment (22.5%; very low); neutral remained the middle sentiment (31.9%; about average); Bull-Bear Spread was -23.1% (very low). Investor concerns: Inflation (moderating but high); economy; the Fed; dollar; cryptos; market volatility (VIX, VXN, MOVE); Russia-Ukraine war (57+ weeks, 2/24/22- ); geopolitical. For the Survey week (Th-Wed), stocks were up, bonds down, oil up, gold up, dollar up. The US bank hearings provided insights into the crisis as the regulators watched. #AAII #Sentiment #Markets
    https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/thread/141/aaii-sentiment-survey-weekly?page=9&scrollTo=993
  • VWINX stumbling?
    I watch this one as one gage of how conservative allocation funds are faring. For years it’s been regarded (ISTM) as the Cadillac of that group.
    Surprised to see it down 0.30% YTD even after today’s +.45% gain. And last year it lost more than 9%. Never owned it. Just trying to figure out what’s causing its problem - likely some staple in its mix that isn’t performing as expected.
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    LOL - Funny. To be honest, I did a little “pruning” today (sold a bit). But by no means is that a bearish call.
    Oh. I wouldn’t worry about Schwab’s survival. But financials / brokerages can be a bumpy ride. TRP nose-dived about 50% last year if I remember correctly.