M* Rekenthaler mentioned exposure to international as one of the main drags on target-date retirement funds in a column this past summer.

VTINX Target Income Composition 01/01/2023        Ticker   % portfolio
Vanguard Total Bond Market II                      VTBIX    37.00%
Vanguard Total Stock Market Institutional          VSMPX     18.00%
Vanguard Short-Term Inflation-Protected            VTAPX     16.30%
Vanguard Total International Bond II Index Fund	    VTILX    16.20%
Vanguard Total International Stock Investor Shares  VGTSX    12.50%
VTINX Portfolio                                              100.00%

Thanks for update. I too am far overweight energy as it is such a small amount of the SP it is clearly a value play.
I am still trying to decide when to buy long bonds. Many of the professional bond folks, even those who think we are in a prolonged bond bear market ( ie Jim Grant) are looking at that 50% haircut on 30 year Treasuries and thinking it has to have a pop.

The Fund is closed to new accounts for investors not enrolled in Vanguard Flagship Services® or Vanguard Personal Advisor Services®. Clients of these services may open new Fund accounts, investing up to $25,000 per Fund account per year as described below, in individual, joint, and/or personal trust registrations.

for many funds, the documents only go back to 2007 even if the fund is much older (example: Ariel Fund).

[snip]
@hank,
Good questions!
I'm not an expert on robo-advisors.
I recently worked with Vanguard Personal Advisor Services (PAS)
to create a financial plan as a trial exercise.
My thoughts are below.
- Are these robo’s aware that bonds recently experienced a 30 year bull market? That aberration affected not only bond returns. It also likely distorted other asset performance as well. Are robos capable of distinguishing between what worked over the last 30 years during falling interest rates and what might work over the next 2 or 3 decades?
Vanguard PAS uses the Vanguard Capital Markets Model (VCMM) to forecast returns for stocks,
bonds, short-term reserves as well as inflation rates.
The VCCM uses a statistical analysis of historical data for interest rates, inflation,
and other risk factors for global equities, fixed income, and commodity markets
to generate forward-looking distributions of expected long-term returns.
I don't know what models other robo-advisors are using nor which factors they consider.
- Does the robo take into consideration the difference between very low / negative inflation over the preceding 2 or 3 decades and the likely inflation scenario going forward? Can it comprehend and factor in how that monumental sea change might turn return on different assets on their heads? Assets that outperformed over a period of low inflation may not be the best ones in a radically different economic backdrop.
Please refer to my answer above.
- Are these robos aware of the growing friction with China, Russia and how that may affect EM investments? Do they take into account the rise of populism around the world and growing political instability in many Western nations?
I don't think robo-advisors' models factor in rising populism or frictions with China/Russia.
- Would robos have correctly foreseen the tech revolution in say 1975 (excuse the oxymoron) and would they have recommended the best investments over the next quarter century? Can they properly assess the impact AI may / may not have on investments?
Robo-advisors could not have predicted the tech revolution nor can they properly assess the impact of AI.
- Can a robo correctly identify a bubble in an asset class and warn its clients to steer clear in a timely manner? (By definition, most humans cannot.) Or, might the robo have had you invested in Japan in the mid-90?
Robo-advisors can not identify bubbles in an asset class beforehand.
However, their models may underweight "overvalued" assets.
[snip]

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