CD Renewals From somebody who follows CD rates very closely and has a sizeable CD ladder:
Correction to what you stated in the OP:
2- and 3-yr CD rates have recently been inching UP, NOT DOWN.
I've replied to you a few times over the years about this topic and once in the past few months. You don't seem to appreciate my input on this topic, but I'll try it one more time, especially for those who might.
It's all pretty simple if you paint by numbers, so to speak. Translation, create a very basic EXCEL spreadsheet and drop in the variable numbers.
Here are the BEST current CD rates for Fido, non-callable CDs.
1-yr: 5.25%
2-yr: 4.95%
3-yr: 4.80%
Example:
You want to invest in non-callable, interest bearing instruments for 3 years.
You BUY a $10,000, 1-yr, non-callable CD at 5.25%
At maturity in ONE year in July 2024, you earned $525.
You could have instead BOUGHT a 3-yr, non-callable CD at 4.80%
At maturity in THREE years in July 2026, you would have earned ($480 x 3 or) $1,440.
In order to break even with the currently available 3-yr CD rate, at maturity of the 1-yr CD in July 2024, you will need to BUY a 2-yr CD paying 4.58%.
($525+$458+$458 = $1,441)
(NOTE: You could also BUY a 1-yr in July 2024, and another 1-yr in July 2025, but I'll leave that scenario and math up to you.)
So, in this example,
(1) If you THINK a 2-yr, non-callable 4.58% or greater CD will be available in July 2024, BUY the 1-yr now.
(2) If you DON'T THINK a 2-yr, non-callable 4.58% or greater CD will be available in July 2024, BUY the 3-yr now.
For my money, the decision is easy. BUY the 3-yr NOW as IMO it is unlikely a 2-yr, 4.58% non-callable CD will be available in July 2024. And even if it is, IMO it won't be sufficiently greater than 4.58% to cause me to let the current 3-yr rate of 4.80% get away from me.
Disclaimer: This ain't idle chat. It's what I'm actually doing, and have been doing, for the past six months.
Harry Markowitz, Modern Portfolio Theory Pioneer, Dies at 95 I stumbled across an informative article today discussing Markowitz's contributions to investment theory.
"Markowitz agreed with Williams’s approach to valuing individual investments. It was far better than the old prudent man approach. But Markowitz still saw it as incomplete. The shortcoming: While it’s important to evaluate individual investments, it’s equally important—if not more so—to consider how a collection of investments will work together in a portfolio. Markowitz was the first, in other words, to show investors how to effectively diversify a portfolio.""In his 1959 book, Portfolio Selection, adapted from his thesis, Markowitz provided this example: 'A portfolio with sixty different railway securities, for example, would not be as well diversified as the same size portfolio with some railroad, some public utility, mining, various sorts of manufacturing, etc. The reason is that it is generally more likely for firms within the same industry to do poorly at the same time than for firms in dissimilar industries.'”
"As noted above, today this might seem obvious. But before Markowitz, it had never occurred to anyone. And it wasn’t just a casual observation. Portfolio Selection runs more than 300 pages and is dense with formulas. In it, Markowitz provided a framework for building optimal portfolios—those that offered either the maximum possible return for a given level of risk, or the least possible risk for a given level of return. Markowitz called these portfolios 'efficient,' and presented them visually in a diagram he called the efficient frontier."Link
CD Renewals I have invested heavily in CDs since March of 2022. Many of those CDs are now maturing, and I have decisions to make about investing in new CDs. Rates seem to be flattening recently, and rates for CDs longer than 2 years seem to be dropping. The best rates are shorter term, 3 months to 1 year, paying a little over 5%. CDs from 18 months to 2 year are around 5%, and anything longer is less than 5%. When I look at the future, there does not seem to be a strong appetite for any major rate increases, with most projections thinking we may get 2 more .25% rate increases in the second half of 2023. I am now thinking about going out to about 18 months to 2 years for a CD paying 5% or more, but continuing to renew CDs for 6 months to a year, when they are at 5.25% or more. I currently am hesitant to invest in longer term CDs that are paying below 5%.
For those continuing to have a desire to invest in CDs, I would be curious as to what you consider as attractive rates to maintain your investing interest.
Fidelity Money Market Funds The minimum to open FZDXX in an IRA is $10K, otherwise it is $100K. See
summary prospectus (this info isn't on the fund's web page).
The minimum amount Fidelity expects you to keep in FZDXX is $10K, even for a taxable account. I've been told that Fidelity is lenient in enforcing this policy. They give you 30 days notice in any case. From the statutory prospectus:
If your fund balance falls below $10,000 worth of shares for any reason and you do not increase your balance, Fidelity may sell all of your shares and send the proceeds to you after providing you with at least 30 days' notice to reestablish the minimum balance.
If you have multiple MMFs in a Fidelity account, it isn't clear which fund Fidelity will tap next once your core fund is depleted.
What drives markets? Fund Flows? Market structure has changed podcast...also stated 90%+ of those under 45 years old who have a 401k account, auto invest into index funds... can that be true?? If so, that could drive markets higher, @Baseball_Fan -
dThat sounds a lot like a theory I’ve heard on other forum(s) to explain why equities have risen this year. Can’t blame folks who missed the 6+ month rally to try and rationalize how they got left behind. And the theory (that passive inflows are driving the market) might in the end prove correct. Darned if I know. But let’s look at that statement you cite ….
Re:
”90%+ of those under 45 years old who have a 401k account, auto invest into index funds…” That could well be true if it means
a portion of their automatic investment goes into index funds. That relates to target date funds being the
default option where they work plus the fact that nearly all target date funds do invest
a portion of their assets in the S&P. It
does not mean that 90%+ of those under 4
5 invest
exclusively in the S&P. I and a number of others have cited figures as to the % those target date funds allocate to large cap U.S. stocks. Nowhere near 90%.
There’s another flaw in the quote you cite. Even were it accurate (as you interpret it), it still would not mean that 90% of all 401K contributions go into index funds. That would depend on who that 90% were and how much they were able to contribute.
-
PS: Not my role to assess market valuations or recommend what people should own. I will submit however, that if a bubble existed the
S&P,
NASDAQ, or other major major U.S. index, opportunities could still exist in smaller or mid cap equities as well in some foreign markets. And, an
index is not a
market. It merely seeks to replicate one.