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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • S&P Enters Bull Market
    S&P enters bull as investors flee. That's my headline. I ran across this piece from Reuters on my Fido feed. Excerpts follow:
    U.S. equity funds had their biggest weekly outflow in 10 weeks in the seven days to June 7 as investors, worried about rising inflation and an economic slowdown, pulled out their money.
    [ellipses]
    Refinitiv Lipper data showed investors offloaded a net $16.44 billion worth of U.S. equity funds in their biggest weekly net selling since March 29.
    [ellipses]
    Among U.S. funds, large- and mid-cap funds experienced net outflows of $7.53 billion and $1.07 billion, respectively. However, small-cap funds saw net inflows totalling approximately $1.15 billion.
    Tech sector funds faced outflows of $1.31 billion after five consecutive weeks of inflows, while industrials and consumer discretionary funds pulled in $616 million and $399 million, respectively.
    Money market funds received inflows of $19.83 billion, according to the data, reflecting investors' continued preference for these funds as net buyers for the seventh consecutive week.
    U.S. bond funds witnessed withdrawals of $561 million, following five consecutive weeks of inflows.
    Investors sold U.S. general domestic taxable fixed-income and short/intermediate investment-grade funds amounting to $1.79 billion and $1.45 billion, respectively, while purchasing government funds totalling $1.76 billion.
    That is all.
    WABAC WABAC in Other Investing
  • 15% “hit” to ADR dividend payment for “foreign tax”
    Came across the following elsewhere - which sounds a bit scary. But the fact that I was “only” hit with the 15% tax suggests to me Fido probably has the necessary paperwork on file with the Swiss government (ADR is Swiss based).
    “One issue with ADRs is when the tax treaty rate is lower than the foreign country’s domestic withholding rate. Switzerland has a domestic foreign withholding rate of 35% and a 15% tax treaty withholding rate with the U.S. However, to qualify for the 15% tax treaty rate, investors must file paperwork with the Swiss government beforehand or be subject to the full 35%. If they do not do this ahead of time, the Swiss government will withhold 35% ”
    Source
    From @yogibearbull - ”The US funds with foreign holdings may pay foreign tax that is included in your yearend 1099.” That’s encouraging within the context here. Right? Doubtful many of us file to reclaim taxes our funds pay on holdings outside the U.S.
    Thanks for the Fidelity link Yogi. However, it didn’t get very deep into the weeds. :) As I suggested earlier, the routine trading I do in this holding would likely create a tax nightmare inside a taxable account. In part, it helps offset the once a year tax hit.
    After @msf is fully recovered from ingesting smoke I hope he’ll be able to weigh in as well.
    hank in Other Investing
  • 15% “hit” to ADR dividend payment for “foreign tax”
    There may be withholdings of dividends for foreign ADRs. I am not aware of any withholdings related to CGs. The US and Canadian ADRs have friendlier rules.
    The US funds with foreign holdings may pay foreign tax that is included in your yearend 1099. You may claim tax credits for those. If more complicated foreign holdings, you may have to include the Form 1116.
    While we are at it:
    The ADRs can be company-sponsored or noncompany-sponsored.
    The US ADRs (tickers ending typically in "Y") are traded normally, without extra exchange fees (about $50 per trade) for foreign listings on the Pink Sheets/OTC (tickers ending typically in "F"). Examples that have both include VW (VWAGY, VWAPY; VLKAF), Porsche Holdings (POAHY, POAHF), SoftBank (SFTBY; SFTBF), etc.
    Fido has a basic link on ADRs.
    https://www.fidelity.com/learning-center/investment-products/stocks/understanding-american-depositary-receipts
    yogibearbull yogibearbull in Other Investing
  • 15% “hit” to ADR dividend payment for “foreign tax”
    Just had my first encounter. Here’s a link that explains it.
    Questions:
    - Since the ADR is held inside a Roth, is there an easy way to recover that tax?
    - Is it wiser in tax-sheltered accounts to invest in foreign stocks thru U.S. domiciled funds? Do funds employ measures that mitigate or eliminate the tax for such accounts - or are the taxes simply hidden as “other expenses”?
    - If you really liked a foreign stock (and the currency hedging aspect) could you still justify owning the ADR in a tax-deferred account while paying the tax?
    hank in Other Investing
  • S&P Enters Bull Market
    DJIA has more cyclicals, and only 14.62% is "industrials" now. Its price-weighted design is also flawed, but it has been heavily promoted by DJ/NWS and SPGI (in the US and abroad). Walter Cronkite famously said that he just reported DJIA in his daily news broadcasts but didn't fully understand what it was (web search failed to produce any specific quote).
    Nasdaq Comp is growth and tech-heavy. Market-cap weighted.
    SP500 is a blend (of growth and cyclicals) and is broader. Often, the market-cap weighted SP500 SPY is compared with equal-weight SP500 RSP to see how the broad market is doing.
    https://stockcharts.com/h-perf/ui?s=SPY&compare=RSP&id=p26386927283
    yogibearbull yogibearbull in Other Investing
  • S&P Enters Bull Market
    If people are only investing in a 500 stock cap-weighted world it might be hard to get at those other companies doing well.
    My wife is the only one of us with a 500 index fund, which is in her taxable portfolio. Over the past 12 months it has been outperformed by GRID, FIW, IHDG, and CGW in addition to tech sector funds. She has PSCC in her IRA. And that has beat the 500 over the past year, and over its lifetime. So those are a lot of consumer, health, and industrial stocks, a fair number of which aren't even in the 500.
    Of course there are duds too. It's hard to beat the market. So it's no wonder people are talking about T-Bills and CD's when they are paying over 5%. That's a lot of headwind for stocks that don't pay dividends, and might not be growing reliably in an inflation-for-longer environment.
    Seemed like few of the folks quoted in the article cited in the OP seemed enthusiastic about the new bull.
    WABAC WABAC in Other Investing
  • S&P Enters Bull Market
    Bull Market Watch
    Major indexes bottomed at different times in 2022, & their status in 2023 are also quite different.
    DJIA +17.89% (low in 10/2022)
    SP500 +20.04% (low in 10/2022)
    Nasdaq Comp +29.62% (low in 12/2022) (was +19.46% in 02/2023)
    DJ Transports +20.02% (low in 09/2022) (was +30.34% in 02/2023)
    IWM/R2000 +15.67% (low in 06/2022) (was +22.68% in 08/2022, +22.19% in 02/2023)
    DJ Utilities +9.76% (low in 10/2022)
    Early movers R2000, Nasdaq Comp, DJ Transports reached the bull market (+20% from prior low) first, but now SP500 has made it, and DJIA may follow (& Dow Theory followers declaring a new bull market). Forget about DJ Utilities. Note that there was a powerful move in early-2023 - some called it a huge "thrust", then a minor dip, and then the debt-ceiling fiasco only restrained the markets (i.e. didn't harm it).
    yogibearbull yogibearbull in Other Investing
  • wow, financials. 5 day comparison
    TROW up 5.04% for 5 days-This trade may yet be profitable for me!
    carew388 carew388 in Fund Discussions
  • 17 week T-Bill purchase executed 06/08/2023
    4-Week 912797FR3 06/06/2023 07/05/2023 5.130% 5.237%
    8-Week 912797GA9 06/06/2023 08/01/2023 5.220% 5.350%
    17-Week 912797GV3 06/06/2023 10/03/2023 5.325% 5.511%
    @yogibearbull That's what I found earlier today. NO 06/07 auction it appears. Issue , auction, & announcement are all self explanatory .
    YBB Thanks again Your second link shows an auction for 17 week T-Bill. Added on 06/07
    Derf in Other Investing
  • S&P Enters Bull Market
    I have to wonder if it's just the S&P 500 Elite 7 that are in a bull market. Can you imagine if the remaining 493 equities in the S&P 500 decide to join the party? Just thinking out loud.
    Mark Mark in Other Investing
  • S&P Enters Bull Market
    ”It’s official. We’re in a bull market” / Article
    Nice to report some good news.
    “The S&P 500 rallied Thursday to end the day in a bull market, marking a 20% surge since its most recent low, reached on October 12, 2022. That brings to end the bear market that began in January 2022. Buoyed by gains in big technology stocks, the broad-based index closed at 4,293.93 and crossed the threshold that separates a bear market from a bull market — that’s investor-speak for a period of time marked by rising stock prices and optimism on Wall Street. Investors are certainly in a buying mood: CNN’s Fear and Greed Index hit ‘Extreme Greed’ Thursday. Markets have remained surprisingly resilient over the past nine months, as 2022 losers like tech and media have bounced back from a disastrous year on hope that the worst is over for those industries.”
    d
    hank in Other Investing
  • Concerning SPY and concentration in top 5 holdings
    imagehttps://twitter.com/GunjanJS/status/1666887612873728000
    @ybb testing to see if this works.
    Devo in Fund Discussions
  • The Next Crisis Will Start With Empty Office Buildings
    @LewisBraham- Sorry, but I have to disagree on this one- the Examiner article refers to an individual as I described above in reply to Anna: an ordinary person who has fallen on really bad times. There are in fact a number of organizations here in SF who do really excellent work in helping out in those types of situations, and my wife and I have substantially supported them for many years.
    To repeat- the majority though, at least here in SF, are druggies, thieves and crazies who respond to nothing other than their next high. A number of the hotels described in the Examiner article were substantially trashed during the pandemic temporary housing program- something that the Examiner chose not to report.
    A short excerpt from a pertinent report in the San Francisco Chronicle:

    Hotels are seeking millions from S.F. for damage when they were homeless shelters.
    Hotel Union Square’s cleanup bill was steep — $5.6 million to repair rampant smoke damage, broken light fixtures, mold and other problems.
    As city supervisors consider shelling out millions to settle the dispute over damages at one of San Francisco’s hotel homeless shelters, taxpayers could be on the hook for millions more to settle similar claims from other hotels that participated in the program.
    In September 2021, the owners of Hotel Union Square filed a claim with the city, alleging unhoused residents who the city had placed there had caused $5.6 million in damages — and cost the Dallas-based hotel operator hundreds of thousands more in lost rent.
    City officials created the Hotel Program in 2020 during the COVID-19 pandemic and used it to house more than 3,700 high-risk residents in 25 hotels. With federal and state funding drying up, the city has gradually closed most of the hotels.
    Old_Joe Old_Joe in Other Investing
  • The Next Crisis Will Start With Empty Office Buildings
    @Old_Joe The homeless situation in SF is more complex and the hotel program was more successful than you're acknowledging: https://sfexaminer.com/news/politics/pandemic-shelters-may-set-path-for-sf-homeless-response/article_b956bd42-da44-11ed-b04b-7f692881f8fd.html
    LewisBraham in Other Investing
  • Anybody Investing in bond funds?
    Lots of negativity on bonds here. I can understand the allure of cash when you can get 5.08% at firms like Schwab. Yet many bond funds are on pace for double digit returns in 2023. Albeit much of those gains were front loaded in January/February. There is even more negativity on commercial real estate. Yet one of the few pure plays on commercial real estate in the open end bond universe is doing just fine YTD and far outperforming cash.
    Your comment sounds like a pitch to be a buy and hold investor now. That seems a bit out of character for a well known trader.
    dtconroe in Fund Discussions
  • Anybody Investing in bond funds?
    Lots of negativity on bonds here. I can understand the allure of cash when you can get 5.08% at firms like Schwab. Yet many bond funds are on pace for double digit returns in 2023. Albeit much of those gains were front loaded in January/February. There is even more negativity on commercial real estate. Yet one of the few pure plays on commercial real estate in the open end bond universe is doing just fine YTD and far outperforming cash.
    Junkster Junkster in Fund Discussions
  • Anybody Investing in bond funds?
    Read the YBB thread above. Doesn't bode well for bonds if Treasuries higher yield flood the market.
    As I said in a post on the Treasury thread, I don't agree with the terminology of Treasuries flooding the market. I read the Treasury article as a slow, gradual, introduction of shorter term securities, likely trying to avoid spooking the market. That could be good for slightly higher interest rate CDs, but also a trend of bonds gaining some traction. I keep expecting FR/BLs to become more "interesting".
    dtconroe in Fund Discussions
  • Treasuries Flood is Coming
    Looks like the bond market will take a hit as a consequence. Gains made this year could be in jeopardy. Great...
    I agree with Derf's comments above that "flood" is not an accurate descriptive term. This statement, "Treasury plans to increase issuance of Treasury bills to continue financing the government and to gradually rebuild the cash balance over time to a level more consistent with Treasury’s cash balance policy. Initial increases in bill issuance will be focused on shorter-tenor benchmark securities and cash management bills (CMBs), including the introduction of a regular weekly 6-week CMB (the first of which will be announced on June 8)." I see phrases like "gradually rebuild cash balance" and "initial increases...will be focused on shorter-tenor...securities", as suggestive of slow and careful actions, not a "flooding" of issuance of Treasuries. I expect both Treasuries and CDs to reflect these more gradual increases, to not spook the market, and not lead to an unnecessary recession.
    dtconroe in Other Investing
  • Concerning SPY and concentration in top 5 holdings
    @larryB,
    haha, what you said:
    >> fascinated by how the algorithm seems to have lost its mojo after a long and sorta steady run
    only the tired 'value' lesson of 'works until it doesn't'
    Also like CCOR; that defunct growth-over-value thing of recent loser yore; and so much else
    Waiting for DIVO (which I do not own yet) to stall.
    There should be an etf called MOJO.
    Bloomberg has a recent article whose hed is something like 'SP500 tech heaviness is a feature, not a bug'; maybe it's been posted or pointed to already.
    davidrmoran davidrmoran in Fund Discussions
  • AAII Sentiment Survey, 6/7/23
    Prior attempts for bullish turns fizzled in 2022 and 2023YTD, so watch if the BIG turn this week sticks. Max bullish was 75%, far from where we are, and 50s become high. Remember, sentiment surveys are contrarian, so buy/hold when max bearishness, sell when max bullishness.
    yogibearbull yogibearbull in Other Investing