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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • U S TREASURY BILL DUE 04/20/23 DTD 04/21/22
    Thanks. Your explanation on liquidity makes perfect sense.
    Is there good reasons to go longer duration treasury beyond 52 weeks, in light of the current yield curve?
  • AAII Sentiment Survey, 11/23/22
    2022 has been an unusual year for the AAII Sentiment, a contrary indicator. The low-high ranges YTD are:
    Bullish: 15.84% (4/14/22) to 33.33% (8/18/22)
    Bearish: 27.54% (3/31/22) to 60.87% (9/22/22)
    Bull-Bear Spread: -43.1% (9/22/22) to +4.3% (3/31/22)
    The current Sentiment reading is fairly negative, but not as bad as it was in September (or, in April or June). However, Charles Rotblut of AAII sees the current situation much more optimistically (e.g. "new 2022 high for bullish sentiment" last week; he hasn't tweeted yet about today's readings).
    There has been a rush into guaranteed products* (Treasuries, CDs, stable-value/SV, m-mkt funds, etc) but that may be justified for now. My rule of thumb is to favor guaranteed products so long as their guaranteed rates well exceed the 30-day SEC yield of competing choices. This will change eventually.
    *Principal and interest are guaranteed currently or at maturity.
  • Crypto investing coming to your 401(K) account
    Due to Fido's push for cryptos in general, and for 401k/403b in particular, I also started the "Crypto Crash" thread at the Fido Investment Community, a closed, by-invitation group for Fido account holders (links from there cannot be posted elsewhere). I kept that thread current for a while, but then just referred to the (open) MFO "Crypto Crash".
    https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/60259/crypto-crash-11-8-22#latest
  • Crypto investing coming to your 401(K) account
    Three US Senators have urged Fidelity to stop its 401(k) sponsor partners from offering bitcoin exposure — likening crypto investing to “catching lightning in a bottle.”
    In a Monday letter penned to Fidelity CEO Abigail Johnson, Democrat Senators Elizabeth Warren, Dick Durbin and Tina Smith argue that crypto markets have become riskier following FTX’s sudden collapse, making bitcoin unsuitable for retirement plans.
    Boston-based Fidelity began allowing employees to put as much as 20% of their retirement savings into bitcoin exposure this fall.
    The crypto industry considered the move a strong sign of shifting institutional sentiment toward the 12 year old asset class, although bitcoin has shed some 60% of its value since Fidelity flagged the 401(k) move in late April.
    Fidelity, which overall boasts some $9.6 trillion in assets under administration, is the largest individual retirement plan (IRA) provider in the US — supporting more than 35 million IRA, 401(k) and 403(b) retirement accounts. As of 2020, FIdelity controlled more than a third of the retirement fund market in the US, maintaining $2.4 trillion in 401(k) assets.
    https://blockworks.co/news/senators-fidelity-stop-offering-bitcoin-401ks
    For full disclosure, Fidelity was my past 401(k) plan administrator. The choices were solid and their service, phone or online, were second to none. Outside of that, they also have been our main brokerage for many years.
  • In emerging markets, the bulls are back again
    For deeply discounted bonds, the 30-day SEC yield assumes par at maturity (ignoring default risks), so be cautious.
    https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/post/705/thread
  • BONDS, HIATUS ..... March 24, 2023
    Observations. This does not necessarily indicate a trend of 3 or 6 months or longer; for longer duration bonds, but what some traders 'think' may be coming down the road for long duration bond rates.
    A rotation of directions took place one month ago, October 24. This is still holding, one month later.
    TMF (lower long rates) has gained 35% since October 24 pricing (using current price at 2pm, EST, November 23.
    TBT vs TMF chart
    --- TBT = (ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (about 23 holdings)
    --- TMF = (Direxion Daily 20+ Yr Trsy Bull 3X ETF (about a 3x version of EDV etf)
    Comments and insights most welcomed.
    Catch
  • In emerging markets, the bulls are back again
    Try this for the text:
    https://fidelity.com/news/article/top-news/202211230959RTRSNEWSCOMBINED_KBN2SD11Z-OUSBS_1?print=true
    Be sure that you consider the total return of emerging market debts, not just the yields alone. The EM bond prices get crushed as their yields rise. A minus 20% down for this year will take more than one year to fully recover. I learned my lesson in 2008 and it took over 4-5 years to recover. Talking about opportunity cost when the market came back strongly after 2008 when you are still holding 80 cents on a dollar of investment.
  • Several Fidelity Disruptive ETFs in registration
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/945908/000094590822000058/main.htm
    Fidelity Disruptive Automation ETF
    Fidelity Disruptive Communications ETF
    Fidelity Disruptive Finance ETF
    Fidelity Disruptive Medicine ETF
    Fidelity Disruptive Technology ETF
    Fidelity Disruptors ETF
  • 11 years of jail time for Ms. Holmes
    As a retired retail pharmacist as of October 2022, I was witness to the accurate testimony of the previous commenter and physician sma3. Perhaps I can address the challenges confronting the second stop after your doctor or mid-level practitioner visit--your pharmacy.
    Briefly, in the early part of the 2000's, there was an acute shortage of pharmacists and salaries were escalating. In response, with the encouragement of rapidly expanding retail pharmacies and the prospect of a high value (both to the student and institution) professional curriculum, the number of pharmacy schools doubled. As these newer schools starting pumping out new graduates in the last decade and simultaneously retail pharmacy saturation in many markets reduced new construction, very quickly equilibrium then a surplus of pharmacists emerged into the latter part of the last decade.
    Of course, the major chain employers then found themselves in a favorable supply/demand status. Starting salaries fell markedly as thousands of particularly new graduates with six-figure loan debts competed for a much lower level of job openings. Prospective students began to contemplate the deteriorating cost/benefit of a pharmacy degree and chose another--enrollments began to plunge 5-10% (or more) annually.
    Then--the pandemic hit. Immunization service demand skyrocketed and in some areas the diminishing supply of new pharmacists could not fully compensate. Across the nation, most acutely in rural areas, this situation is not improving with companies being forced to offer five figure bonuses to fill positions. It is quite possible you are witnessing this as many pharmacies have been forced to limit hours and/or be closed on weekends unexpectedly due to lack of staff.
    Of course, much of the detail sma3 shared (reimbursements, government edicts, patient counts, excessive EMR bureaucracy, high turnover of medical professionals) also contribute at the pharmacy level. All combined, what has evolved are common long wait times for making appointments, tests, and procedures, and the timely readiness and availability of your prescription. Please understand--this frustration is mutual.
  • 11 years of jail time for Ms. Holmes
    One final comment.
    I was not trained in "preventative medicine" but I practiced holistic medicine as I tried to help patients make decisions that were right for them as people and not tell them what to do. I would document for them the expected results of what they wanted to do, if we agreed to disagree.
    I think the jury is out on "preventative medicine" at least if it means with different training health care professionals could correct people's bad habits. I had little luck trying to get people to stop smoking eating not exercising etc. I knew all the correct approaches from the literature and seminars etc, but the data says such interventions have a success rate of about 10%.
    I might be different with different TV programs, Social Media, advertisements, but if you can't convince 35% of the population to be fully vaccinated against a potentially fatal pandemic disease, good luck with smoking cessation or obesity
  • 11 years of jail time for Ms. Holmes
    I assume the board is running out of interest so I will not answer all of your points in detail, but am happy to discuss further if you want.
    When I graduated from medical school in 1978, over half the class went into internal medicine, as it was intellectually exciting, involved doing something for people and was close to other specialties in salary. We had little debt. Neither of these last two points are the case now , and students are following their pocket books so lots of specialists and few Internists. The specialists have manufactured their markets, insisting all older people get "skin checks" and anyone with chest pain see a cardiologist etc.
    I was against the AMAs stand in almost everything and remain so today.
    All I had to offer my patients when I was in practice was the time they needed, my experience and training and deep interest in their problems and their lives. That could not be crammed into less than 15 minutes. But our office visits became more and more important to them because they never heard from specialists about test results, saw the surgeon once ( maybe) before surgery and usually not after, and got life changing results (ie cancer diagnoses) without explanation by email.
    Patents who did not have docs like me to rely on, went to the ED, had more symptoms, got more tests, more visits and more costs.
    If this society is to achieve cost control with better results in health care, we desperately need an economic environment where competent well trained PCPs can function effectively, without constantly trying to see more patients in less time and have payors continually cut their fees, add more to their workloads and office requirements. We need to stop incentivizing medical students to go into lucrative subspecialties with ridiculous salaries that add little to the nation's health. Countless studies show PCPs are much more cost effective than specialists in management of most medical problems, and that our medical costs are so high because of an overreliance on specialists that no other western nation needs.
    I don't know of the accuracy of your reference, but the table shows a salary increase from $147000 to $189000 or 28% total in 20 years. These increases however hardly beat inflation. Compared to lawyers and MBAs (who have only three years post college, not seven for PCPs) these salaries don't seem excessive. The fact that specialists make three to ten times that of a PCP is where American MD salaries are really skewed far away from other countries averages.
    No one I hired or recruited out of residency started at $147,000, and I rarely made that much in 30 years of practice.
    My main point remains: with fixed fees the only way to achieve a salary increase with more experience and seniority a PCP has to either see many more patients in less time, do lucrative but unnecessary procedures in the office or work longer hours. None of these are conducive to good patient care.
    Medicare rates are set in a complicated political process involving local cost differentials, usual and customary adjustments, advisory boards (loaded with subspecialists), caps on Part B reimbursements requiring budget reconciliation legislation etc, not by "negotiations" with any group. In fact, due to the budget reconciliation process, rates are automatically cut almost every year without a specific restoration from Congress.
    Medication costs for Medicare patients are finally going to be negotiated, but this will not stop the enormous political pressure applied by big pharma to get "copy cat" drugs approved at lucrative rates, or get ineffective medications for Alzheimer's approved at $58,000 a year. As some of these will be outpatient services( Part B) , not just drugs, it could decrease physician payments further.
    The system is stacked against a specialty that uses it's brains and humanity to talk to patients, hear their concerns, make an accurate diagnosis and determine an individual plan rather than ordering an MRI in 60 seconds or referring to a specialist because there is not enough time to figure out what the problem is.
  • RPHIX vs US Treasuries vs CDs
    RPHIX TTM yield, per M*, is 2.36%, but I don't care about yield, by itself, for a bond oef like RPHIX. For a bond oef, like RPHIX, I only care about total return. For RPHIX, its YTD total return is 2.09%. Its shorter term TR is .90 for 3 months, but there is no guaranteed TR with a bond oef, so everything is a projection based on a performance pattern.
    For a MM, I get 3.71% for SWVXX and 3.85% for SNAXX--and so I know what my total return pattern, for now, is and there is no threat to principal. CDs are paying about 4.8% for 1 year. Will RPHIX produce a TR over 3.71% or 3.85%, up to a CD high of 4.8%%? Its a guess, but currently I prefer my guaranteed 4.8% for a large part of my principal, and 3.71% and 3.85% for my more liquid holdings. I look at MMs and CDs in combination for my total return projections for my cash.
    So, just for me, I need to see RPHIX total return performance hiigher than .90% for 3 months, before I will start "believing" that in this environment of rising interest rates, likely recession, that this is the time to abandon my guaranateed total return, via MMs and CDs.
    Each person can read the market and decide what they want to invest their cash in, based on their analytical criteria for risking their cash. I am not recommending any investment action for others, but that is my current personal criteria, subject to change in the future.
  • RPHIX vs US Treasuries vs CDs
    I haven't found the 30 day SEC yield on Riverpark's website, which is why I linked to Fidelity.
    Regardless of where one finds the figure, it is calculated by the fund itself. I infer this from the fact that even M* does not compute the yield but relies upon funds to compute it themselves. M* also notes that this is a figure calculated at the end of the previous month, so the most current figure is as of 10/31.
    From M*'s glossary:
    SEC Yield
    This calculation is based on a 30-day period ending on the last day of the previous month. It is computed by dividing the net investment income per share earned during the period by the maximum offering price per share on the last day of the period. The figure listed lags by one month. When a dash appears, the yield available is more than 30 days old. This information is taken from fund surveys.
    https://www.morningstar.com/invglossary/sec_yield.aspx
    M* Fixed Income Survey Guidelines
    As to how the figure is calculated, it is more complicated than just looking at the latest dividend payment. "SEC yield requires averaging the yield to maturity of the fund’s holdings over the prior 30 days and accounts for fund expenses."
    https://advisors.vanguard.com/insights/article/Unpackthechallengesofrisingbondfundyields
    Shorter term yields have increased significantly in November. I expect (with qualifications already stated) that the 11/30 SEC yield for RPHIX will therefore be notably higher than the 10/31 3.68% yield. Especially given all its "dry powder" (see Lewis' post above).
    With respect to SNOXX's state tax exemption, though it is named Treasury Obligations MMF, the name is misleading. Only 69% of the fund's income in 2021 came from government obligations exempt from state taxes in any state. And less than 50% was from actual Treasuries, making the fund fully taxable in California, Connecticut, and New York.
    https://www.schwabassetmanagement.com/resource/2021-supplementary-tax-information
  • 11 years of jail time for Ms. Holmes
    A self-employed primary care doctor seeking reimbursements is different from a surgeon working in a hospital. Hospital medical staff do get raises based on experience: https://work.chron.com/rate-salary-increase-physician-27112.html
    The other interesting question is whether years of experience are the best measure of quality in medicine. I wouldn’t want to be a surgeon’s first patient, but I also wouldn’t want to be their last either. A doctor with five or more years of practical experience may be more aware of the latest medical research or trends than one with 40 years about to retire. A younger surgeon might also have steadier hands.
    Yet in some respects, the question is moot because doctors of any level of experience tend to get paid handsomely here. I feel for the overworked internists with huge student loans still to pay, but that is a different issue. You don’t hear of too many poor established American doctors. The reason we don’t have national health insurance is directly due to the AMA, which lobbied hard to prevent it from happening many moons ago. And Old Joe is exactly right about the different levels of care here. This is not a country to be poor and sick in. And other countries have consistently better outcomes than we do both on the cost and health front for their entire populations.
    The problem with just letting the market handle healthcare is the inequality of supply—limited—and demand—unlimited—for necessary life saving care. If it costs you 5 cents to make a candy bar and you want to charge $50 for it, have at it. I’ll just buy something else, but there may be wealthy people who love your candy so much they’ll pay the $50 for it. But if it costs you 5 cents to make a pill that you have an exclusive patent on and it keeps my parents, children, or spouse alive and you want to charge $500 for it—we’ve got a problem.
    Note, one of the additional problems our for profit healthcare industry has created is that through lobbying big pharma made it so that Medicare could not use its negotiating muscle to demand lower prices on drugs. That’s why you have poor seniors cutting pills in half. Medicare however does have the power to negotiate reimbursement rates for doctors visits and medical procedures. Doctors are unhappy with those lower reimbursement rates. I have a feeling many seniors are alive today because of them.
  • 11 years of jail time for Ms. Holmes
    @ LewisBraham
    You are referencing salaries paid to trainees in residency programs, not what a licensed physician bills and gets paid for to see a patient.
    I used "medical intern" as the minimal amount of training most states require to get a license. I technically should have said "medical resident" because all states require at least one year ( internship) of post medical school training to be licensed and then to bill. So therefore technically a post internship MD
    My point, based on 40 years of office practice is that insurance companies and Medicare pay the same amount for the procedure or office visit, regardless of what physician renders the service.
    So a MD 366 days out of medical school gets the exact same $ amount for, say, an office visit that your long term internist with 40 years of experience and advanced training receives. Longer training, board certification, fellowship training etc have no effect on the fee, nor are they usually required to bill for procedures.
    Nor is there, at the present time, any easy way to bill for additional time spent with the patient. This may change soon, but cognitive services will remain at a huge disadvantage when a dermatologist can remove a mole in 30 seconds for $100 and an internist only gets a little more to spend 45 minutes with you to diagnose your heart attack, or interpret your CT scan and plan your cancer care.
    I too used to think the government was generally responsible for positive things in health care, but 40 years of running a small medical office convinced me otherwise. Most of our overhead, ( 50 to 60% of our revenues ) was due billing staff trying to collect a few dollars more from multiple payors, extra staff to deal with regulations from botht he government and our payors and mandated programing and Medicare mandated computers and electronic medical records. The latter required 3 to 4 hours a day of my time in front of the computer after the patients ( and staff) went home that added nothing to patient care or their health. I rarely left the office before 9 PM.
    Is it any wonder why you can't find a primary care MD in practice taking new patients?
    I could easily have taken home the same amount of money charging $50 to $100 a visit, and spent a lot less time with far fewer headaches.
    I can't speak for specialists or hospitals and what what would happen to orthopedists, for example if they billed patients directly for a hip replacement. Specialists in high demand would obviously charge outrageous amounts. This is already happening in some states where subspecialty societies have limited sub specialist training.
    Every study I have read demonstrates at least 30% of American health care expenses goes to needless administrative overhead and outrageous salaries of executives.
  • RPHIX vs US Treasuries vs CDs
    SVWXX 7 day SEC yield is 3.71% today. Taxed at 22% bracket plus Mass ( my state) income tax ( 5%) is 2.75%
    SNOXX ( Govt obligations) is 3.45% or 2.691% without any default risk ( Repos are minimal so now state tax free).
    For PRHIX, I don't see how Fidelity arrives at SEC yield of 3.68%, using October's income of 0.0256 a share
    Using October's distribution ( after expenses) of .0256 a share if continued for next 12 months is .3072 or a yield of 3.2 % without compounding
    Can you find the SEC yield on RPHIX website?
  • 11 years of jail time for Ms. Holmes
    @LewisBraham
    There are myriad of reasons why the "health care is a right" movement, which was very popular when I was in medical school in the 70s, foundered.
    The libertarians went after it, claiming that if people had a right to something, the professionals providing that service were denied freedom of action and were essentially slaves. This, of course was before the rise of health insurance companies totally controlling payments and making physicians essentially their slaves.
    The BC/BS organizations in the 50's decided to pay for "procedures" rather than cognitive services, putting thinking and counseling at a major disadvantage, especially when they also decided ( in the 80s) that all cognitive services and non procedural treatments for a cold or cancer or septic shock were the same and reimbursed them equally.
    Adding insult, unlike every other profession in America, experience and training and skill in medicine do not result in a differential in payment. An intern, one day out of medical school gets the same payment as a doc with decades of experience.
    I think if we eliminated third party payors, and had people pay for their health care themselves, with subsidies directly to the consumer perhaps, it would solve a lot of the problems.
    Few people would pay for brand name drugs if there was a cheap generic. Hospitals would be empty unless they had rates equal to the cheap hotels that most of them are. CEOs of "non-profit" health care institutions would not be paid millions of $. Professionals would have to compete on results, or services or reputation or price, but almost all would be forced to lower their fees or else go broke.
    Eliminate the third party payors, and the typical physician would save 35 to 50% of overhead.
    Overnight, the political pressure people and states put on insurers to pay for stuff that is not life saving ( plastic surgery, unnecessary procedures etc) would disappear.
    I won't get in to the Billions of dollars of added expense that the Federal and state governments add with their demands for "meaningful use", protocols, and other regulations.
  • CD Questions
    When purchasing a long term CD , say 5 years, & the interest accumulates until the maturity date, does Uncle Sam want interest payments taxed & paid on a yearly basis ?
    Do all CD's have a POD or TOD , or is this info part of due-diligence ?
    Thanks for any info, Derf
  • RPHIX vs US Treasuries vs CDs
    SWVXX has a cumulative (not annualized) return of 1.218% from March 16, 2020 through Nov 15, 2022. (Fund pays divs in mid-month.) Schwab data source.
    RPHIX has provided a cumulative return of 7.20% over the same time span. M* data source.
    Recent performance (1 month/3 month, through 10/31):
    RPHIX 0.47% / 0.69% (from Morningstar performance page)
    SWVXX 0.25% / 0.63% (from Schwab's page for this fund)
    As I've explained, extrapolating from today's yields is always risky, but FWIW, here are some yields (7 day for the MMF and 30 day SEC for the Riverpark funds).
    RPHIX 3.68% (as of 10/31)
    SWVXX 2.97% (as of 10/31)
    What is it about RPHIX's performance pattern that leads you to feel that you "can get better returns through Schwab Money Market accounts"? There are a lot of factors beyond the raw numbers above that one might look at. I've suggested option adjusted spreads as one factor to throw into the mix. Others?