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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • AAII Sentiment Survey, 4/26/23
    AAII Sentiment Survey, 4/26/23
    For the week ending on 4/26/23, bearish became the top sentiment (38.5%; above average) & bullish remained the bottom sentiment (24.1%; low); neutral became the middle sentiment (37.4%; above average); Bull-Bear Spread was -14.4% (low). Investor concerns: Inflation (moderating but high); economy (now, the regional bank FRC?); the Fed; dollar; crypto regulations; market volatility (VIX, VXN, MOVE); Russia-Ukraine war (61+ weeks, 2/24/22- ); geopolitical. For the Survey week (Th-Wed), stocks were down, bonds up, oil down sharply, gold down, dollar down. An unusually high 1m-3m T-Bill spread remained on debt-ceiling concerns. #AAII #Sentiment #Markets
    https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/post/1021/thread
  • Debt ceiling jitters lift US credit default swaps to highest since 2011
    @lewisBraham
    You are correct, but when only 50% of eligible voters actually vote, a minority can control a lot of stuff.
    Oh, my. How true THAT is!
  • Quick earnings report for 1Quarter, '23: Bar Harbor Bank BHB
    Tonight, 26 April, '23: shares at $23.93. YTD -22.35%
    Gotta be lagging because of the knock-on effect from the rest of the bad bank publicity in the news. Buy Buy Buy!
  • CCM Core Impact Equity and CCM Small/Mid-Cap Impact Value Funds to be reorganized
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/870355/000089706923000342/tm33.htm
    497 1 tm33.htm
    Quaker Investment Trust
    April 26, 2023
    Supplement to Statutory Prospectus and Summary Prospectuses, each dated October 28, 2022
    Proposed Reorganization. The Board of Trustees of the Quaker Investment Trust has unanimously approved an Agreement and Plan of Reorganization (“Agreement”) between Quaker Investment Trust, for itself and on behalf of the CCM Core Impact Equity Fund and the CCM Small/Mid-Cap Impact Value Fund, and Hennessy Funds Trust, for itself and on behalf of the Hennessy Stance ESG Large Cap ETF, to be renamed the Hennessy Stance ESG ETF effective as of April 28, 2023 (referred to herein as the “Hennessy Stance ESG ETF”), pursuant to which the CCM Core Impact Equity Fund and the CCM Small/Mid-Cap Impact Value Fund (collectively, the “Funds”) would be reorganized on a tax-free basis with and into the Hennessy Stance ESG ETF.
    The Agreement provides for the transfer of all of the assets of the Funds to the Hennessy Stance ESG ETF, in exchange for shares of the Hennessy Stance ESG ETF, which will be distributed pro rata by the Funds to their shareholders, with the Hennessy Stance ESG ETF assuming the liabilities of the Funds. As a result, shareholders of the Funds will become shareholders of the Hennessy Stance ESG ETF (the “Reorganization”). The Hennessy Stance ESG ETF will retain the same service providers and portfolio managers as before the Reorganization. The Reorganization is not expected to result in the recognition of gain or loss by the Funds or their shareholders for federal tax purposes. Shareholders of the Funds and the Hennessy Stance ESG ETF will not bear the costs of the Reorganization.
    A Special Meeting (the “Meeting”) of the Shareholders of the Funds will be held to vote to approve the Agreement. In connection with the Meeting, Hennessy Funds Trust will file a preliminary prospectus/proxy statement on Form N-14 with the Securities and Exchange Commission. The definitive prospectus/proxy statement when available will be sent to shareholders of the Funds to seek their approval of the Agreement to effect the Reorganization and will contain a comparison of the investment policies, strategies and risks of the Funds to the Hennessy Stance ESG ETF. Shareholders are urged to read the definitive prospectus/proxy statement and proxy card when they become available, because they will contain important information about the Agreement and the Reorganization. Shareholders of each of the Funds will vote separately on the proposal to reorganize their respective Fund.
    ******
    Please Read Carefully and Keep for Future Reference
  • John Templeton
    Given that he was "big on Union Carbide", this must have been recorded in the 20th century. Union Carbide was acquired by Dow Chemical 2/6/2001.
    I'd like to think that this was recorded before 1984, before Union Carbide caused the immediate deaths of over 3,800 people (total death toll over 15,000) in Bhopal. "Investigations later established that substandard operating and safety procedures at the understaffed plant had led to the catastrophe." (Encyclopaedia Britannica). Yet even to this day, as a subsidiary of Dow Chemical, Union Carbide clings to its story that this worst industrial disaster in history was an act of sabotage.
    If Templeton recorded this after 1984, I'm saddened by the idea that he could square his faith with his enthusiasm for Union Carbide. By 2001, "UCC [had] shrunk to one sixth of its size since the Bhopal disaster in an effort to restructure and divest itself. By doing so, the company avoided a hostile takeover, placed a significant portion of UCC's assets out of legal reach of the victims and gave its shareholder and top executives bountiful profits."
    https://ehjournal.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/1476-069X-4-6
    Regarding loads: I wonder what he would say about DFA's model - no load, but (until recently) sold only through advisers. Same advice, same handholding as with load funds, but without the fund company skimming part of the load.
    (Per 1995 F-T fund prospectus, F-T kept approx 0.75% of the load on Class I shares.)
  • First Republic Down Over 40% Today After Massive Drop in Assets
    @fred495, the FDIC insurance should cover it. But if high rate CD, it may be redeemed and replaced by a new, lower rate CD - that is a part of the fine print.
  • Two of Alpha Intelligent - Large Cap ETFs will liquidate
    Looks like Alpha Intelligent can't beat Dumb Beta with expense ratios of 0.85%. Not so smart after all.
  • Grandeur Peak Global Advisors' 2023 1st Quarterly letter
    Or they could hire CPA analysts who would know that a strong demographic customer base and conservative underwriting standards do not necessarily make a strong bank's balance sheet. Being too fixated on growth and not enough on balance sheet risk caused the problem both at these banks and for the fund managers/analysts invested in them. These banks took customer deposits and invested them badly, playing a leveraged bond duration game in a rising rate environment, probably not super hard to detect for anyone focused on the balance sheet instead of the income statement. This shareholder letter marks a significant strategic shift. A key excerpt:
    In Financials, our banking tranche showed negative returns through the quarter and detracted significantly from performance in our global and US funds. Only one of the twelve banks we held at various points through the quarter contributed positively to performance, and First Republic Bank (FRC US)2 was the largest detractor.
    Our very selective approach to investing in Banks led us to own First Republic at portfolio
    weights that expressed a high degree of conviction in the company’s risk-adjusted return profile. As you are likely aware, over the past month, First Republic experienced a significant crisis, as collateral damage from the Silicon Valley Bank (SIVB US) collapse, which resulted in a severe de-rating of the FRC share price. A fair question for anyone to ask is how to reconcile our very selective approach to investing in banks with a large position in a bank that has experienced a significant crisis. At a very high level, our investment thesis on First Republic was based in its application of a world-class client service model to arguably the world’s most attractive banking client markets (specifically, the high net worth and high-end professional services markets in urban coastal population centers across the United States). That strategy for First Republic had enabled the company to structurally grow earnings while preserving exceptionally conservative underwriting standards. In other words, while First Republic is a bank, we observed that its unique model and exposure profile largely neutralized most of the quality attributes that generally make banks less attractive and more risky. Put another way, an attribute-by-attribute analysis of First Republic, reinforced over its long successful track record, made us comfortable treating First Republic as we would treat best-in-class growth companies we discover in other industries.
    However, after SVB Financial shared its post-close announcement on Wednesday, March 8th, highlighting elevated deposit attrition, the sale of available-for-sale securities at a material loss, and an equity capital raise, we spoke with First Republic’s CFO in order to confirm our knowledge of the company’s exposure to deposits from early-stage companies, net unrealized losses in available-for-sale securities, and other aspects of its capacity to avoid the negative feedback loop that SVB was beginning to experience. We left that balance sheet review confident enough to continue holding our positions. What destabilized our confidence was Friday’s announcement that SVB Financial would enter receivership and the recoverability of uninsured deposit balances at SVB was in question. As these revelations became clear, we concluded that the probability of contagion extending to First Republic depositors had become too high to justify continuing to hold our positions. In other words, we concluded that First Republic had ceased to be an investment opportunity and had instead transitioned to more of a pure gamble on which wagering our clients’ funds was unacceptable. We proceeded to exit our entire investment position in First Republic at the next opportunity (the Monday morning pre-market) as efficiently as we could without further pressuring the share price.
    In the aftermath (at least the first stage) of this banking crisis, we have carefully reviewed our financial sector investment strategy. We have reinforced our commitment to finding and owning best-in-class growth companies in the capital markets ecosystem. Perhaps more importantly, we have further tightened our already strict standards for bank and real estate company investments. This specifically means that we will invest in fewer banks going forward. They are far too fragile to take large portfolio positions in. Those bank investments that we do own will be more tactical or opportunistic, and they will be held at even more limited portfolio weights. We are also currently focused on the negative implications from this banking crisis related to funding, credit, and regulatory costs for American banks generally. We are focused on the extent to which those issues could apply material stress to more cycle-sensitive borrowers. We are now even further underweight American banks than we were prior to the banking crisis, beyond simply exiting our First Republic position. Our real estate company investments remain focused on structural growth opportunities that exclude exposure to general commercial real estate classes. And we have increased our exposure to multiple best-in-class growth companies within the capital markets ecosystem whose upside scenarios we believe have become significantly more likely due to this banking crisis.
    2 As of 01/31/2023, the Grandeur Peak Funds owned 221,572 shares of First Republic Bank and 47,006 shares of SVB Financial Group
  • Debt ceiling jitters lift US credit default swaps to highest since 2011
    Howdy folks,
    You get what you vote for. Problem is that only the most fervent vote in the primaries and so many voting districts are gerrymandered into predetermined party outcomes. My township hasn't had a democrat run for local office in at least 3 elections and we're on four year terms. They voted 55/44 Trump in 2020. What this means is that everything is decided at the primary. We have a county on Lake Michigan - Ottawa that had a religious group get pissed over mask mandates and primaried the existing conservative republican county commissioners with some serious crazies. Now it will probably reverse at the next election, but, again, these are four year terms. They'll piss off Nessel and she'll have their ass.
    rono the 3rd term elected republican township trustee.
    peace,
    rono
  • First Republic Down Over 40% Today After Massive Drop in Assets
    Good point @Yogi. I’m just “betting” period!
    Suspect it will get bought out by a healthier institution at above $5.00 / Or might be saved by an infusion of cash from some government related entity. Far from my expertise. Not a very big gamble. Play money.
  • First Republic Down Over 40% Today After Massive Drop in Assets
    Currently $5.89 - down 27% today. Thinking of buying if falls under $5
    - Just bought 200 shares at $5.08 / Awaiting bailout.
  • Two of Alpha Intelligent - Large Cap ETFs will liquidate
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1683471/000089418923002845/pfaalphaintelligentliquida.htm
    Alpha Intelligent - Large Cap Value ETF (AILV)
    Alpha Intelligent - Large Cap Growth ETF (AILG)
    (each a “Fund”, and together, the “Funds”)
    Each, a series of Listed Funds Trust (the “Trust”)
    Supplement dated April 25, 2023
    to the Summary Prospectus, Prospectus and Statement of Additional Information
    dated February 28, 2022
    After careful consideration, and at the recommendation of Princeton Fund Advisors, LLC, the investment adviser to the Funds, the Board of Trustees of Listed Funds Trust approved the closing and subsequent liquidation of the Funds pursuant to the terms of a Plan of Liquidation. Accordingly, the Funds are expected to cease operations, liquidate their assets, and distribute the liquidation proceeds to shareholders of record on or about May 24, 2023 (the “Liquidation Date”). Shares of the Funds are listed on the NYSE Arca, Inc.
    Beginning on or about April 26, 2023 and continuing through the Liquidation Date, each Fund will liquidate its portfolio assets. As a result, during this period, each Fund will increase its cash holdings and deviate from its investment objective, investment strategies, and investment policies as stated in the Funds’ Prospectus and SAI.
    The Funds will no longer accept orders for new creation units after the close of business on the business day prior to the Liquidation Date, and trading in shares of the Funds will be halted prior to market open on the Liquidation Date. Prior to the Liquidation Date, shareholders may only be able to sell their shares to certain broker-dealers, and there is no assurance that there will be a market for the Funds’ shares during that time period. Customary brokerage charges may apply to such transactions.
    If no action is taken by a Fund’s shareholder prior to the Liquidation Date, the Fund will distribute to such shareholder, on or promptly after the Liquidation Date, a liquidating cash distribution equal to the net asset value of the shareholder’s Fund shares as of the close of business on the Liquidation Date. This amount will include any accrued capital gains and dividends. Shareholders remaining in a Fund on the Liquidation Date will not be charged any transaction fees by the Fund. The liquidating cash distribution to shareholders will be treated as payment in exchange for their shares. The liquidation of your shares may be treated as a taxable event. Shareholders should contact their tax adviser to discuss the income tax consequences of the liquidation.
    Shareholders can call 1-800-617-0004 for additional information.
    Please retain this Supplement with your Summary Prospectus,
    Prospectus and Statement of Additional Information for reference.
  • John Templeton
    Keys to Investment Success - from John Templeton
    This audio book sounds like it was recorded in the 1980s. A one-on-one interview, very “rough around the edges” - perhaps conducted over the phone. I bought it for $3.99 and have listened to the first half so far. About an hour long. Templeton was my first fund manager when I was just starting to contribute to my workplace plan in the 70s. The fund was TEMWX. He was also founder and head of Templeton World Funds.
    - He’s big on Union Carbide
    - U.S. Steel has fallen in price, but is still too expensive for his taste
    - “Do-it-yourself” small investors don’t have a chance compared to a good mutual fund with its depth of research and analytical capabilities.
    - He thinks no-load funds should not be allowed. His reasoning is that without the assistance of “dedicated professionals” (salespersons) retail investors would make poor decisions in buying funds that don’t meet their individual needs. And also, having not paid a load would entice investors to jump from fund to fund and forsake the rewards of long term investing.
    - He thinks 5 years is the reasonable time frame to expect to profit from a good equity fund. He says it would be extremely rare not to make a profit in one of his firm’s investment portfolios over a 5 year period, based on historical averages.
    - His style sounds deep value. The best investments are those whose price has been trashed and which have long been out of favor / shunned “by everyone else.” However, he’s more than willing to grab off a quick profit and sell a recent acquisition if the price rises quickly.
    - He doesn’t like bonds / bond funds for long term investment, being quite adamant that equities will outperform over longer periods.
    - He and the investment committee move from investing style to investing style in an attempt to stay ahead of the crowd. Once everyone adapts a successful style of investing, it ceases to be effective. He refused the interviewer’s request to detail any one new style under consideration, saying that if he revealed it, it would be less effective as others moved to mimic it.
    - He prays frequently for guidance in making correct investment decisions and leads off staff meetings with prayer.
    - According to the intro, Sir John resides (resided) in the Bahamian Islands while running Templeton Funds.
    An interesting look back in time. Some of Templeton’s views may provoke ridicule or ire among today’s investors. For his time, Templeton was a giant in the mutual fund world. Templeton Funds were later acquired by Franklin. ISTM that’s also about when their earlier years stellar performance ceased.
    image
    Amazon Link
    ”Money magazine in 1999 called him "arguably the greatest global stock picker of the century". Templeton attributed much of his success to his ability to maintain an elevated mood, avoid anxiety and stay disciplined.” Wikipedia
  • First Republic Down Over 40% Today After Massive Drop in Assets
    For those who invest in mid- and small cap funds, take a look at the top 10 holdings, especially banks. Many regional banks are have hard time holding on their depositors since they pay too little for too long. Many money market funds pay 4.5%!
  • First Republic Down Over 40% Today After Massive Drop in Assets
    Oh. Oh.
    ”Shares of First Republic fell sharply and hit a record low Tuesday, as investors questioned how the bank would stabilize itself after losing about 40% of its deposits during the first quarter. First Republic's stock fell more than 40% on Tuesday, extending its year-to-date losses beyond 90%.”
    https://www.cnbc.com/2023/04/25/first-republic-falls-more-than-40percent-to-record-low-after-reporting-massive-deposit-drop.html
  • Loomis Sayles Growth Fund is reopening to new investors
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/872649/000119312523114446/d494962d497.htm
    497 1 d494962d497.htm LOOMIS SAYLES FUNDS II
    Supplement dated April 25, 2023 to the Prospectus and Summary Prospectus of the Loomis Sayles Growth Fund, dated February 1, 2023, as may be revised and supplemented from time to time.
    LOOMIS SAYLES GROWTH FUND
    The Board of Trustees of Loomis Sayles Funds II, upon the recommendation of Natixis Distribution, LLC and Loomis, Sayles & Company, Inc., has approved the re-opening of the Loomis Sayles Growth Fund to new investors. Effective April 25, 2023, the Loomis Sayles Growth Fund will begin accepting orders for the purchase of shares from new investors.
    Accordingly, all references to the Loomis Sayles Growth Fund being closed to new investors are hereby removed from the Prospectus and Summary Prospectus.
  • New to brokered CD's
    But going back to my first example . . . Let's say the coupon on that three month CD is paid at maturity only. So I have not lost out on two previous months of interest payments. It seems to me that the seller is so desperate to raise cash that he is willing to sell me his single coupon payment at a discount.
    I wrote: " If they work like secondary market bonds the buyer will pay the seller for 60+ days of accrued interest up front,"
    You're ignoring this. I don't see the TIAA CD you mentioned listed, so I'll use another one on Vanguard's site as an example. CUSIP 48714LCU1, KEARNY BK NEW JERSEY
    Issue Date: 4/17/23
    Maturity: 7/17/23 (91 days)
    Coupon: 4.8% (annual rate)
    Ask: $99.933
    Ask yield (excluding commission): 5.10%
    Interest calc: 365/365
    Settlement date (T+2): 4/27/23
    Interest at maturity: $1000 x 4.8% x 91/365 = $11.97
    Accrued interest (to settlement date): $11.97 x 10days/91days = $1.32
    Total cost (w/o commission) = $999.33 + $1.32 = $1,000.65
    Pct interest = (payout at maturity / total cost) - 1 = $1011.97/$1,000.65 - 1 = 1.131%
    Annualized rate (simple) = 1.131 x 365 days / 81 days = 5.10%
    Total cost (w/commission of $1) = $1,001.65
    Pct interest = $1011.97/$1001.65 - 1 = 1.031%
    Annualized rate = 1.031% x 465/81 = 4.643657% (per Fidelity's quote)
    Unless the CD price is quoted flat (unusual), one pays the seller the accrued interest at settlement.
    The quoted rate is before commission (aka markup). The commission will further reduce the net yield.
  • New to brokered CD's
    Your CD is fine with the settlement date. I stay with large banks and make sure they are not callable. VG would state that clearly. JP Morgan always offer callable CDs and I avoid them. Hard to find 2 yr + CDs that pay over 5%.
    Like you I am buying T bill in our taxable account. The sweet spot is 3 months.
    By the way, debt ceiling voting is on Wednesday and McCarthy does not have enough votes to pass.
    So far I have purchased some new-issue CD's from Vanguard. They are easy to understand. And they seem to pay fractionally more than the T Bills for the same time commitment. I did put a little money into a T Bill for a test run.
    But going back to my first example . . . Let's say the coupon on that three month CD is paid at maturity only. So I have not lost out on two previous months of interest payments. It seems to me that the seller is so desperate to raise cash that he is willing to sell me his single coupon payment at a discount.
    Moving on . . .
    Wells is selling one nine month CD with a 5% coupon, and 5% yield to maturity, for 100.00, which I understand to be what is called par. It pays interest monthly for all you fans of compounding.
    And then I do see CD's selling higher than par. It is a mystery to me why anyone would pay $101.254 for a 2.95% coupon maturing June 5, 2023. All of the other CD's above par are higher for longer.
    I never used to think about this stuff when rates were repressed and equities were robust.