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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • The Most Powerful Buyers In Treasurys Are All Bailing At Once
    Bonds can recover in at least 2 ways. Treasuries recover when bond prices rise generating capital gains. I'm sure many astute investors bought the EDV etf in 2008 hoping to capitalize on interest rate cuts and rising bond prices. Junk bond funds recover when their bond prices rise to approach par at 100. So in theory a junk bond fund with bonds priced at 60 would generate nice gains in an equity recovery when those bonds rise in price to approach 80 or 90. Some junk bond funds returned 50% or more in 2009, resulting from price gains and interest payments when QE commenced. Current bond funds are priced so that their effective yield matches the stated yield of newly-issued bonds.
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    SOUTHERN CALIF EDISON CO SER 2021J 0.70000% 08/01/2023
    Got mama this bond.. Ytm 5.5%
    Prob buy bank of Canada bond tomorrow
    For me got couple puts $ON 47$strike mature 1.23, Delta 09% good preminums.. Has more cash by then... Good solid growth semi company
  • Fed to deliver another big rate hike as job market fails to cool
    @johnN, September CPI +8.1% y-o-y is the consensus. I used it to estimate the new I-Bond rate (November 1) in this link that I will update tomorrow. BTW, est for Social Security COLA will also firm up tomorrow.
    https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/comment/154463/#Comment_154463
  • A uniformly miserable market if you’re long …
    Thanks Yogi -
    The drop from yesterday (around 5%) was so large I checked first to see if maybe due to a distribution - but doesn’t appear to be. These types of companies are really volatile. I owned a similar one for perhaps a week or two a while back and bailed on it. Never cared for carnival rides!
    Interesting issue here. By some reports, the “big money” exited equities early in the year while the retail crowd hung on. But your info. plus other I’ve seen indicates the Mom & Pop crowd have been fleeing!
    Wow - Add those outflows at TRP to the drop in AUM that would occur naturally from lower bond and stock prices and it’s got to really hurt.
  • Vanguard Announces Changes for Vanguard International Explorer Fund
    Good point about payments (none or nominal?) for benchmarks for active funds. For index funds (OEFs, ETFs) & naming, they do have to pay.
    Another difference is that MSCI has been slower to raise China weightings (vs FTSE).
    Vanguard had a dispute with S&P too over whether the S&P original license applied only to then Vanguard's SP500-related funds (S&P's view), or also to Vanguard's future SP500-related funds (Vanguard's view). This was settled too.
    With internal/self-indexing gaining respectability, may be Vanguard will get rid of everybody else to do indexing on its own.
  • Vanguard Announces Changes for Vanguard International Explorer Fund
    This seems to be a little different than 2012. According to Morningstar, Vanguard switched the benchmark index " on 22 index funds and exchange-traded funds in 2012."
    In contrast, VINEX is an actively managed fund. The internals (components) of the benchmark are not being used to drive the security selections. Only the performance figures are used, as, well, a benchmark. "Vanguard believes the new benchmark will improve investors’ ability to assess performance relative to peer funds."
    Here's an article from 2012 describing the Vanguard move then. It is "premium content" in the Philadelphia Inquirer. But it was written by an AP writer, so it is available for free at Yahoo Finance. Now there's an idea - switching to a different provider to reduce cost. Maybe Vanguard should look into that :-)
    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/vanguard-move-highlights-little-known-211153486.html
    It is not clear whether Vanguard (or any institution) pays simply to compare performance with published benchmarks. This article illustrates the confusion. Its Inquirer headline reads: Looking at Benchmark Licensing Fees, while the AP headline (at least in Yahoo) reads: Vanguard move highlights little-known index costs.
    The body of that article starts out with "Index mutual fund investors are a cost-conscious bunch." It goes on about how index funds are cutting costs.
    So do the benchmark providers receive remuneration every time someone reprints their performance figures? Does the WSJ pay MSCI, S&P, and all the rest when it reports how much they moved yesterday? Do they have agreements with all the benchmark providers waiving fees? Or is this data in the public domain? I don't know, and I hadn't thought about it before.
    Once again, the shift to MSCI means Korea is benchmarked differently. The old benchmark was from S&P that treats Korea as a developed country and gives it more weight in the S&P EPAC SmallCap Index. MSCI still treats Korea as an emerging market. So there's no Korea in the new MSCI EAFE Small Cap Index benchmark (as represented by SCZ).
    This won't make any difference in how the fund is managed - as of last April only 1.6% of the fund's assets were invested in Korea, vs. 6.1% in the old S&P benchmark (Sept. data). It will just result in the chosen benchmark being better aligned with the actual fund portfolio.
  • CNBC’s Bob Pisani Interview with Christine of M*
    I found this lengthy interview (with a book plug) to be fascinating and entirely relevant to today’s investing environment. Not sure about the M* paywall for non-subscribers. I definitely saw myself making the same mistakes with my trades and portfolio that he warns about. Very insightful comments on momentum, investor behavior, and costly errors. Pisani also provides info on what he himself owns and says that rarely do the talking heads on the media reveal what they own, despite what they have to say about a stock, a fund, or a strategy. If Pisani’s book reads as well as the interview, I might put it on my Christmas wish list.
    https://www.morningstar.com/articles/1117225/bob-pisani-everyone-talks-their-book-on-wall-street?utm_source=eloqua&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=newsletter_morningdigest&utm_content=39323
  • Fidelity files for Credit Interval Fund
    Interval-funds are newer types of funds with some features of CEFs, OEFs, ETFs. Note para 3 of the filing for limitations of interval-funds:
    "Interval Fund. The Fund is designed primarily for long-term investors and not as a trading vehicle. The Fund does not currently intend to list its Shares for trading on any securities exchange and does not expect any secondary market to develop for its Shares. The Fund is an “interval fund” (as defined below) pursuant to which it, subject to applicable law, will conduct quarterly repurchase offers for between 5% and 25% of the Fund’s outstanding Shares at net asset value (“NAV”). In connection with any given repurchase offer, it is likely that the Fund may offer to repurchase only the minimum amount of 5% of its outstanding Shares. It is also possible that a repurchase offer may be oversubscribed, with the result that shareholders may only be able to have a portion of their Shares repurchased. The Fund does not currently intend to list its Shares for trading on any national securities exchange. The Shares are, therefore, not readily marketable. Even though the Fund will make quarterly repurchase offers to repurchase a portion of the Shares to try to provide liquidity to shareholders, you should consider the Shares to have limited liquidity."
  • Fidelity files for Credit Interval Fund
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1949594/000119312522260617/d351784dn2.htm
    Principal Investment Strategies. Under normal circumstances, the Fund will invest at least 80% of its assets in Credit Instruments (as defined below). The Fund will opportunistically allocate its investments in Credit Instruments among (i) foundational credit, which includes private credit (direct lending and real estate debt), and liquid and less liquid credit (leveraged loans, high yield bonds and collateralized loan obligations (“CLOs”)) and (ii) opportunistic credit, which include stressed and distressed investments (distressed debt, special situations, rescue financing and hung deals) and opportunistic investments (convertible bonds, preferred stock, commercial mortgage-backed securities and privately originated reverse inquiry credit solutions) (together, “Credit Instruments”). The Fund may invest in additional types of Credit Instruments and strategies in the future.
  • Transamerica High Quality Bond to be reorganized
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/787623/000119312522260357/d256905d497.htm
    TRANSAMERICA FUNDS
    Transamerica High Quality Bond
    Supplement to the Currently Effective Prospectus, Summary Prospectus
    and Statement of Additional Information
    The Board of Trustees has approved a reorganization pursuant to which the assets of Transamerica High Quality Bond (the “Target Fund”), a series of Transamerica Funds, would be acquired, and its liabilities would be assumed, by Transamerica Short-Term Bond (the “Destination Fund”), a series of Transamerica Funds, in exchange for shares of the Destination Fund. The Target Fund would then be liquidated and shares of the Destination Fund would be distributed to the Target Fund shareholders in complete liquidation of the Target Fund.
    Under the reorganization, Target Fund shareholders would receive shares of the corresponding class of the Destination Fund with the same aggregate net asset value as their shares of the Target Fund. It is anticipated that no gain or loss for Federal income tax purposes would be recognized by Target Fund shareholders as a result of the reorganization.
    The reorganization of the Target Fund into the Destination Fund is subject to the approval of the shareholders of the Target Fund. A proxy statement/prospectus describing the proposed reorganization was mailed to Target Fund shareholders on September 29, 2022. If the reorganization is approved by Target Fund shareholders and all other closing conditions are satisfied, the reorganization is expected to occur in the fourth quarter of 2022. Effective on or about December 8, 2022, the Target Fund will be closed to all investments. Prior to that date, shareholders can continue to purchase, redeem and exchange shares of the Target Fund subject to the limitations described in the Prospectus, Summary Prospectus and Statement of Additional Information.
    * * *
    Investors Should Retain this Supplement for Future Reference
    October 11, 2022
  • I-Bond Rate, 5/1/22-10/31/22
    @yogibearbull and @Sven: thanks for those directions. As soon as the TD site informed me my trade did not occur, it froze my bank information to the extent that I can't do anything, either re-enter the info, delete it, or add another bank. When I referred above to jumping through hoops, I meant that I despaired of trying and left it for another day. Signature guarantee? Spare me.
    FWIIW, the IRS had no difficulty yesterday in accepting my tardy 3rd quarter estimated taxes debited from the same Schwab account. I missed the 9/15 deadline because we're dealing with a death in the family. I've been filling out forms for the funeral director and my patience and tolerance are at ebb tide.
  • A uniformly miserable market if you’re long …
    @hank: you're thinking -66% off the old high???????
    - From March 2000 to October 2002 the NASDAQ lost more than 70%.
    - From September 2007 to March 2009 the NASDAQ lost more than 50%.
    The NASDAQ is typically more volatile than the S&P or Dow. John Templeton once remarked that a market doesn’t often decline more than 50% from its top and remain at that level for very long. Exceptions have occurred. Japan comes to mind.
    * NASDAQ numbers came from Wikipedia articles. They may not be precise, but I believe them close approximations
    @Crash - My original comment was intended to be light-hearted. I don’t have a number in mind. But I’ll allow for worst case scenarios. There are other things to consider. Down 50% and up 65% in short order is one thing. But down 50% without a snapback is an entirely different matter.
  • FedSpeak sputters
    IMO trying to parse inter-meeting FedBabble is akin to debating whether the weatherperson is saying the outside temperature is 57 or 59 degrees with greater accuracy. You're better off going outside for yourself and see if it's comfortable enough wearing only a light fleece. (But it makes for solid media punditry....)
    For example, the Fed's "transitory" comment is about as useful as the weatherperson saying there's a "50% chance of rain today."
  • The Most Powerful Buyers In Treasurys Are All Bailing At Once
    Foreign central bank holdings of Treasuries at the US Fed are down sharply as the dollar has become strong (there is an inverse relationship). For foreign central banks, these are savings/reserves to be used in difficult times. They are using these dollar-funds to defend their own currencies and for other purposes. Anyway, the Fed is the first to know about this trend. Twitter LINK
    image
  • FedSpeak sputters
    Fed's Brainard: “Move with caution” on rates.
    These guys all seem to be whistling from the same flute collection. Powell must be the master composer. They’re apparently in the process of shifting messaging from a fast paced Fox-trot to a slower tempo waltz. Something got their attention? Or perhaps they had preconceived notions of how far they’d let markets tumble before bringing out the stops. (Good luck guys.)
    Read Story
    Similar note from Fed’s Charles Evans on CNBC ‘s Squawk Box October 10:
    “A little nervous about rate hikes …”
    Read Story
    ISTM Newton’s first law of motion might well apply here. Or to mix metaphors terribly - It’s a lot easier to start a brush fire than to put one out.
  • The Most Powerful Buyers In Treasurys Are All Bailing At Once
    Everywhere you turn, the biggest players in the $23.7 trillion US Treasuries market are in retreat. From Japanese pensions and life insurers to foreign governments and US commercial banks, where once they were lining up to get their hands on US government debt, most have now stepped away. And then of course there’s the Federal Reserve, which a few weeks ago upped the pace that it plans to offload Treasuries from its balance sheet to $60 billion a month.
    https://fa-mag.com/news/the-most-powerful-buyers-in-treasurys-are-all-bailing-at-once-70058.html?section=3
  • I-Bond Rate, 5/1/22-10/31/22
    Sounds like TD is really clumpy. Here is what is stated on TD for changing banking information:
    To edit an existing bank account, click the "radio button" for the bank you wish to edit and click the "Edit" button.
    The ManageDirect >> Bank Change Form Request page will appear.
    A page will display with a link to a Bank Change Request FS Form 5512 to edit an existing bank in your TreasuryDirect Account.
    You must sign the paper form in the presence of an authorized certifying official available at a bank, trust company, or credit union and mail it to us for processing. Certification by a Notary Public is not acceptable.
    Your request will not be processed until we receive and approve your form with any necessary supporting documentation. We will notify you by e-mail when your transaction has been completed.
    You may be able to do this by phone. To find out, call (844) 284-2676, choose option 4 at the first menu, and choose option 1 at the second. Or, if you prefer, you can send us FS Form 5512 as described below.
    If you provided the routing and checking account numbers of Schwab bank account, TD should not have any issue. The routing number identifies the banking institution.
  • I-Bond Rate, 5/1/22-10/31/22
    @BenWP, coincidently, my TD account link is with Schwab Bank and I haven't had any issues so far.
    My TD account (Trust) did take about 6 weeks to activate after sending the requested Signature Guarantee paper.
    This may help,
    https://treasurydirect.gov/indiv/help/treasurydirect-help/faq/#id-managing-my-account-536497
    "To add a new bank or edit an existing bank account, simply select the ManageDirect tab, then select Update my Bank Information under Manage My Account. Click the Add or Edit button on the ManageDirect Bank Information page. This will take you to the the Bank Change Form Request page where you will be directed to complete and mail a Bank Change Request FS Form 5512 to add a new bank or edit an existing bank.
    Note: The bank selected as your primary bank appears first on the bank information list and in the drop-down boxes throughout TreasuryDirect. To designate a different bank listed in your existing bank information as the primary bank, e-mail us by clicking the Contact Us link or call us at (844) 284-2676."
    Complete the FS Form 5512, get Signature Guarantee from your bank/credit union, and mail to the address indicated.
    https://treasurydirect.gov/forms/sec5512.pdf
    Edit/Add: BTW, TD has redesigned its website, so if you have saved/bookmarked TD links, they won't work anymore. They need to be replaced or removed.
  • A uniformly miserable market if you’re long …
    PRPFX is one of my oldest holdings. About 15 years. Does tend to track gold a little, so having an off year along with gold. I’m encouraged by today’s market downdraft. The NASDAQ is now almost 33% off YTD. A rough guess is we’ve now reached the half-way point on the way to market bottom. Whew. Quite a ride.
  • Barron’s Funds Quarterly (2022/Q3–October 10, 2022)
    @MikeW, the stable value fund I use is a private fund offers through my 401(k), not assessable for the public. For alternatives, I invest in PRPFX after I replaced TMSRX and IAU last year. Also I invest in GPANX (multi-strategies) and PQTAX (managed futures). So far they are holding up much better than those from PRPFX and TMSRX. My goal to have closer to 10% alternatives since their asset correlation to S&P500 are less than 0.5 for the last 2.5 years.
    One has to pay attention to the underlying components invested in the alternatives. For example, PQTAX has a healthy % in commodity, metals, agricultural grains, and currencies in addition to the derivatives that Pimco often deploys. Lynn Bolin calls it the “ black box fund”. Commodity futures have done well while tracking WTI prices and natural gas. USD is rising over other currencies. The others are flat. GPANX is a relative new addition, but it is has stay afloat despite the drawdown lately.
    To migrate risk of the unknown, I like to build the position to the target % over say 3 months while watching how it responds to S&P500, for example. Consistency over various market cycles is something we are all seeking. Lynn’s article also pointed out recent severe drawdown day and YTD data that provided insights of how these alternatives behaved under those circumstances. The other is the asset correlation to S&P500 and to different types of alternatives.