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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • QCDs from TIRAs
    It's that time again - to make QCDs from TIRAs early. It's from a community paper in which I publish weekly personal finance features.
    https://indoustribune.com/business/finance/qcds-from-tiras-retirement-charitable-contributions/
    QCDs from TIRAs
    There are several ways to make charitable contributions – direct from taxable accounts, from DAFs & as QCDs (Qualified Charitable Distributions) from Traditional IRAs (TIRAs).
    QCDs can be made only from TIRA, not from workplace 401k/403b (but those can be rolled-over/ direct-transferred to TIRA).
    QCDs can be made after 70.5 & that is 2.5 years before RMDs start now. The annual limit is inflation-adjusted ($108K in 2025; 2x for couples).
    After Required Minimum Distributions (RMDs) start at 73, the QCDs count as RMDs up to the QCD limit. QCD can also be more than RMD, but the excess cannot be applied to next year’s RMD. QCDs reduce future RMDs & may avoid Medicare Part B IRMAA (Income-Related Monthly Adjustment Amount) triggers.
    QCDs don’t flow through 1040 income & don’t require itemized Schedule A for deduction. They can be made by both itemizers & non-itemizers. So, they are clearly better than charitable contributions from taxable accounts or from withdrawals taken from TIRAs.
    QCDs must go directly from the IRA sponsor to charities although IRA checkbook may be used (technically, money doesn’t flow through your hands). Make QCD well ahead of the yearend so that the donation is completed by the yearend (sent by sponsor, received by charity & acknowledged).
    QCDs cannot go into DAFs (Donor-Advised Funds).
  • Tesla vote on Thursday
    It's a pay package that accrues over time, not $1T all at once. Still, no one is worth $1T over an entire lifetime.
    Even made of solid gold, he'd only be worth about $13M
    $4K/oz x 16 oz/lb x ~200lb ≈ $13M
  • Dalio again
    I'm reading Ray Dalio's "How Countries Go Broke." He is well into retirement now. He's a rare breed, studying lengthy macro-trends in the economic world at a deep, thorough, granular level. He founded Bridgewater Associates and made BILLIONS (with a B) of dollars for himself and his clients. He's just in a different Class altogether, compared with the "experts" that are out there, whom you might see more of. But Dalio has been making the rounds recently. He's everywhere, being interviewed. 
    In his most recent book which I mentioned above, he references this amazingly extensive international gauge, comparing 35 countries' growth/productivity prospects. There are numerical charts that will make your eyes glaze over, but the text is worth reading, if you just want to ignore all of the statistics. This is absolutely an amazingly deep and valuable resource. 
    I've just started putting a tiny bit of money into an Exchange Traded Fund concentrated in Singapore, and so I was interested to see what he had to say, there. (Ticker symbol EWS.) ... The document will be regularly updated, but this latest edition is dated from September, 2024--- so it does not yet reflect the very sudden and drastic changes introduced by U.S. President Trump since he took office again, in January of 2025.
    THE LINK:
    https://economicprinciples.org/downloads/DalioRay_Power_Index_Appendix.pdf
    The most recent book, published in June, 2025
    https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/210084984-how-countries-go-broke
  • Tesla vote on Thursday
    I was pleased to note on the M* ownership tab that Fido was not among the top 20 "institutional" owners of Tesla.
    FMR is #10 on the list of major institutional owners.
    Goede Capital, spun off from Fidelity and the firm sub-advising Fidelity's index funds, is #4.
    The largest shareholder is not an institution. It is Musk.
    https://www.morningstar.com/stocks/xnas/tsla/ownership
    https://institutional.fidelity.com/app/funds/managerinformation/667/2365.html (Geode)
    From the cited NYTimes article:
    Mr. Musk also probably had the support of many smaller investors who retained their stock despite slumping profits and car sales — and as Mr. Musk’s foray into politics in the last year, in support of Mr. Trump, alienated many people.
    “The people who have stayed as shareholders after all this are the people who have drunk the Elon Kool-Aid,” said Randall Peterson, a professor of organizational behavior at the London Business School.
    Not just a win for Musk and his (current) 15% stake, but apparently a "win" for the small investor as well.
  • US airlines cancel flights after aviation agency directive to cut air traffic
    image
    Yeah. Stuck somewhere right now. Hoping for a flight ….
    A sad commentary. And “slowing down the investigation” of a major accident indirectly lends harm to all who use air travel. Thanks for the excellent story @Old_Joe
    Possibly of interest - Top 10 Billionaire jets of 2025
  • US airlines cancel flights after aviation agency directive to cut air traffic
    Following are edited excerpts from a current report in The Guardian:
    United, Southwest and Delta have announced they will be reducing flights amid continuing government shutdown
    United, Southwest and Delta airlines began cancelling flights for Friday in compliance with the FAA’s directive that will see reductions in flights at 40 major airports from Friday to help address air traffic controller shortage safety concerns as a result of the government shutdown.
    On Thursday evening, Delta said it will be cancelling 170 flights on Friday and “fewer” on Saturday because it is a lighter travel day. Southwest said it will cancel 120 flights for Friday and United said it plans to cut 4% of its flights Friday through Sunday, and American Airlines said most customers would be unaffected and long-haul international travel would remain as scheduled, and that customers could change their flight or request a refund.
    The affected airports covering more than two dozen states include the busiest ones across the US – including Atlanta, Charlotte, Denver, Dallas/Fort Worth, Orlando, Los Angeles, Miami and San Francisco. In some of the biggest cities – such as New York, Houston and Chicago – multiple airports will be be affected, as will all three airports serving the Washington DC area, inevitably causing delays and cancellations for lawmakers and other travelers. The cuts could represent as many as 1,800 flights and upwards of 268,000 seats combined, according to an estimate by the aviation analytics firm Cirium.
    The flight reductions, according to ABC News, will start at 4% on Friday and increase to 10%. The flights affected by these reductions are scheduled during the hours of 6am to 10pm. The likely airspace shutdown comes two weeks before the Thanksgiving holiday – typically the busiest travel period of the year – and raises pressures on lawmakers to reach a deal to end the shutdown.
    Air traffic controllers, already in short supply, have been working unpaid since 1 October, with many working mandatory overtime and others taking second jobs, according to Sean Duffy, the US transportation secretary. The Air Traffic Organization (ATO, the operational arm of the FAA) is responsible for the scheduling and safety of more than 44,000 flights and more than 3 million airline passengers daily across more than 29m square miles of airspace.
    The government shutdown has left shortages of up to 3,000 air traffic controllers, according to the administration, in addition to at least 11,000 more receiving zero wages despite being categorized as essential workers. Bryan Bedford, the FAA administrator, said the flight reductions are intended to keep the airspace safe during the shutdown.
    “I’m not aware in my 35-year history in the aviation market where we’ve had a situation where we’re taking these kinds of measures,” Bedford said. “We’re in new territory in terms of government shutdowns. “Our sole role is to make sure that we keep this airspace as safe as possible.
    From Friday to Sunday evening, at least 39 air traffic control facilities reported potential staffing limits, according to an Associated Press analysis of operations plans shared through the Air Traffic Control System Command Center. The figure, which is probably an undercount, is well above the average for weekends before the shutdown.
    During weekends from 1 January to 30 September, the average number of airport towers, regional control centers and facilities monitoring traffic at higher altitudes that announced potential staffing issues was 8.3, according to the AP analysis. But during the five weekend periods since the shutdown began, the average more than tripled, to 26.2 facilities.
    The shutdown may also have other consequences, including slowing the investigation in a UPS cargo plane crash on Tuesday in Louisville that killed at least 12 people.
    “At a minimum, the shutdown will certainly slow down the investigation,” said Matt Stoddard, an Atlanta-based transportation attorney, in a statement to the Guardian. “National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) investigators must interact with other parts of government and those other departments’ responses will certainly be slowed.”

  • TCAF
    Very unlikely to outperform a very low cost S&P500 index, like VOO, over the long term. Friction costs such as higher expense ratio and bid/ask spread are the primary factors.
  • US markets tumble amid Wall Street concern over job losses and AI
    Following are edited excerpts from a current report in The Guardian:
    S&P 500 down 1.1% and Nasdaq down 1.9% as hiring freezes and layoffs sharpen fears US economy is slowing
    Fears that the US economy is slowing, with firms shedding jobs and imposing hiring freezes, sent Wall Street tumbling on Thursday. The S&P 500 index of leading firms was down 1.1% as investors also highlighted concerns about the potential for a slump in the value of businesses that have benefited from huge investments in artificial intelligence. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite fell 1.9%.
    A report showed that last month was the worst October for US layoffs since 2003, which grabbed the attention of investors in the absence of official data delayed by the federal government shutdown. Companies cut jobs and imposed hiring freezes, according to the global outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas.
    Chris Beauchamp, the chief market analyst at the trading platform IG.com, said “The lack of US data and the ongoing government shutdown is making investors nervous.” US markets have been rattled by a review of Donald Trump’s tariffs by the supreme court, which could result in the US president being forced to abandon his flagship policy. Beauchamp added that "If the supreme court rolls back some of the tariffs then inflationary worries will subside to an extent, though this is a topic that will not come to fruition for weeks.”
    A lack of official data has also forced the Federal Reserve to judge the state of the US economy with only a fraction of the information it would usually sift before judging the level of interest rates. Beauchamp further said the Fed and financial markets had found themselves “groping around in the dark” after the suspension of inflation and employment data.
    Speaking on CNBC, the Fed board member Austan Goolsbee said the lack of official data on inflation during the government shutdown accentuated his caution about cutting interest rates further. “I lean more to the: when it’s foggy, let’s just be a little careful and slow down,” he said.
    The survey by Challenger, Gray & Christmas found that employers announced 153,074 job cuts last month, compared with 55,597 in October 2024. It said US firms announced the termination of 1.09m roles during the first 10 months of this year, up 44% from the 761,358 cuts in 2024. Technology businesses led private-sector layoffs, it added.
    The FTSE 100 fell 41 points or 0.4%. European stocks also fell. The Stoxx Europe 600 closed 0.7% lower, with tech stocks suffering the heaviest losses, and the Dax in Germany fell 1.3%.
    Tech valuations have ballooned, and fears of a bubble loom large. “In the US, most of the big tech beasts have reported earnings but there is still lingering concerns about those lofty valuations and the mind-boggling sums of cash being invested into the AI dream,” said Danni Hewson, head of financial analysis at AJ Bell.
  • Bird flu surges among poultry amid a scaled back federal response
    Following are edited excerpts from a current NPR report:
    As birds fly south for the winter, they're carrying with them some unwelcome cargo: the H5N1 virus, or bird flu. In the past 30 days, the virus has struck 66 poultry flocks, leading to the deaths of more than 3.5 million turkeys, chickens and ducks, a steep increase compared to the summer months. The virus can spread easily when infected wild birds mix with commercial or backyard flocks.
    If not taken seriously, the fallout could lead to more than high egg prices. Influenza researchers fear a replay of last year when, for the first time, the U.S. saw close to 70 human cases, including one death. Scientists involved in tracking the virus say they don't have good visibility into what's happening in animals or humans. That's because the federal government has scaled back on surveillance and communication.
    "We're not in a great position for monitoring things," says a virologist at Tufts University. She says a network of influenza researchers used to be in constant contact with their counterparts at federal health agencies about H5N1, mapping out research priorities and discussing changes in the virus. But now "much of that infrastructure has been either completely closed down or significantly hampered," under the Trump administration, due to cutbacks in staffing, early retirements and other policies.
    Another pressing issue: Data coming from the federally-run lab that does genetic sequencing of virus collected from infected animals has slowed to a trickle, something that was true even before the government shutdown. Loss of staff at the U.S. Department of Agriculture — and the fact that communication with scientists needs to be "pre-approved" — has created obstacles, at a time when the threat of spillover from wildlife is increasing.
    As far as scientists can tell, the strain of H5N1 that's widely circulating has not seen the kind of mutations that would enable it to easily infect humans. But the conditions on farms with infected cattle are clearly a risk for workers who are essentially breathing in H5N1 particles that are aerosolized and remain infectious. Minnesota has seen about two dozen outbreaks on farms since mid-September, and an epidemiologist at that state's department of health says they are monitoring about 35 people who were exposed in case they develop symptoms.
    Testing farm workers – the group at the highest risk of catching and spreading the virus – has been a problem since the beginning of the outbreak. This kind of long-term research requires buy-in from farmers and their workers who are often undocumented. And that's unlikely to happen now because of fears about the Trump administration's immigration enforcement. When they were interviewing farm workers in California about bird flu this fall, many were too afraid to leave their homes. Their survey of several hundred workers in three states showed about 20% had symptoms at the same time animals on their farms were sick. Most of those people said they were never tested.

    Comment:   Another example, as if we needed one, of Trump's hatchetmen looking out for the welfare of
                          the nation and it's working people.

  • Tesla vote on Thursday
    Following are short excerpts from a current report in The New York Times:
    Elon Musk Wins $1 Trillion Tesla Payday
    Tesla shareholders on Thursday approved a plan that could make Elon Musk the world’s first trillionaire, two days after New Yorkers elected a tax-the-rich candidate as their next mayor.
    These discrete moments offered strikingly different lessons about America and who deserves how much of its wealth.
    At Tesla, based in the Austin, Texas, area, shareholders have largely bought into a winner-takes-all version of capitalism, agreeing by a wide margin to give Mr. Musk shares worth almost a trillion dollars if the company under his management achieves ambitious financial and operational goals over the next decade.

  • Tesla vote on Thursday
    My favorite MuskRat post recently
    "Control of Tesla could affect the future of civilization"
    He demanded door handles flush with car and that could not be opened from outside without battery power, causing multiple deaths and infants locked inside hot cars.
    Rather than spend $2500 or more to install radar and Lidar on cars ( and those that had it earlier were deactivated) he demanded only cameras ( $400) causing multiple deadly crashes in low light dusty and glare conditions with FSD .
    The salary is bad enough but he wants 29% of the stock. Many reports I have read say the criteria for him to be granted that are very flexible and the board is likely to do so regardless of company's performance.
    Yes yes, but the cars can make fart noises and light up for the holidays, isn't that enough??? /sarc
  • Tesla vote on Thursday
    My favorite MuskRat post recently
    "Control of Tesla could affect the future of civilization"
    He demanded door handles flush with car and that could not be opened from outside without battery power, causing multiple deaths and infants locked inside hot cars.
    Rather than spend $2500 or more to install radar and Lidar on cars ( and those that had it earlier were deactivated) he demanded only cameras ( $400) causing multiple deadly crashes in low light dusty and glare conditions with FSD .
    The salary is bad enough but he wants 29% of the stock. Many reports I have read say the criteria for him to be granted that are very flexible and the board is likely to do so regardless of company's performance.
  • Reinvestment Blues,,,, anyone else?
    I think inflation is sticker than most people believe so I would stay short duration, or barbell your exposure.
    CBUDX yields 4.8% and only 22% junk. 22% floating rate.
    CBLDX is over 6%
    David's write up of ICMUX still holds, although duration is a little longer and it has a significant amount of junk.
    There are a number of financially solid stocks paying over 4% and even 5% dividends in Energy, consumer staples telecom and real estate that are not going anywhere
    SCHD pays 4%
  • The OpenAI bubble
    Speaking of the AI Bubble... when companies start musing openly about creating ways to 'backstop' or 'guarantee' their investments, you know it's a bubble.
    https://www.cnbc.com/2025/11/06/trump-ai-sacks-federal-bailout-openai-friar.html
  • The REAL Economy: 'Empty shelves, higher prices’- Americans tell cost of Trump’s tariffs
    Hey, there was an emergency. His hero in Brazil was being sent to jail! That's an emergency for all ordinary Americans isn't it? smh
    :(
  • Reinvestment Blues,,,, anyone else?
    TRBUX. If my memory serves me well,,, and that is increasingly a question,,,,,, I owned and sold TRBUX for about 5.09 …. It was when mm,,, CD’s and online savings were zeroed. When people were talking about Toyota drivers notes and MYGA and other things. One could do worse than TRBUX for its intended purpose.
  • Tesla vote on Thursday
    In fairness, that doesn't seem to be the case though. From what I've gathered he's proceeding slowly and carefully on the rockets, as one would hope”
    Well, subject to debate.
    image
  • Reinvestment Blues,,,, anyone else?
    TBUX is still working for me. But, it carries some risk I-bonds are not too bad, but limited in the total amount annually.
    I had a CD in the early 1980s that was paying 16%. Sad when that matured! lol
    This is going to be a bigger issue going forward with CDs, MMF and even ultrashort bond funds

    Less than half the bonds in TRBUX are rated higher than BBB. And it does hold some junk bonds and a lot of “unrated” which could be perfectly fine, but subject to TRP’s assessment. Possibly their strategy here: about 1/3 of the holdings consist of BBB / BB rated, with BBB being the greater of the two. I guess ultra-short funds can pull this off OK. It gives me some pause.
    Albeit -T Bills & insured bank deposits represent the very safest “cash” holdings if that’s your desire. Beyond that you’re playing with credit risk, duration risk, management risk and in some cases derivatives risk. Sleep well. :)
    Point taken. You can definitely lose money in TBUX, if the economy turns sour. It is more of a momentum play. And it will start losing gradually, providing plenty of time to exit. TBUX (current yield 4.59%) is the ETF, TRBUX is the mutual fund. I use TBUX to supplement my MMF.
  • Tesla vote on Thursday
    I don't expect much from the usual suspects.
    That depends on whether they follow the guidance of the duopoly of proxy advisors, Glass Lewis and ISS.
    Proxy firm Glass Lewis has recommended that Tesla (TSLA.O) shareholders vote against the proposed $1 trillion pay package for CEO Elon Musk, days after ISS also urged investors to reject what might be the largest-ever compensation plan awarded to a company chief.
    https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/boards-policy-regulation/proxy-firm-glass-lewis-joins-iss-urging-vote-against-musks-1-trillion-pay-2025-10-20/
    Stay tuned
  • Reinvestment Blues,,,, anyone else?
    What to do with maturing CDs? Oh, dear. DODLX at 4.43% yield? I'm still holding my junk, yielding over 7%. But share price has been very slowly falling... FALN yields 6.15%. "Break a leg."