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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Most Americans are better off financially now than before the pandemic
    Reported by CBS, not according to CBS. It wasn't a CBS analysis.
    CBS was reporting a Republican analysis and reporting that the administration had issues with the analysis. IOW, CBS reported two different political analyses.
    The analysis, from Republican members of the U.S. Senate Joint Economic Committee, taps government data such as the Consumer Price Index and Consumer Expenditure Survey to examine the impact of inflation state by state.
    ...
    The Biden administration called the analysis "flawed." Citing federal labor data, a White House spokesman noted that per capita disposable income has risen 16% since December 2020, just prior to President Joe Biden's inauguration.
    "14 million more Americans have jobs today than when President Biden took office and household disposable income is up by almost $21,000 since December 2020," the spokesman said in a statement to CBS MoneyWatch.
    https://www.cbsnews.com/news/inflation-households-need-extra-11400-these-states-its-even-higher
    Maybe my arithmetic is flawed, but it looks like a gain of $21,000 (nominal) less $11,434 in extra costs leaves almost $10K (nominal) in extra money to raise households' standard of living. Or maybe that $21K is not an annual figure but a cumulative figure. Who knows?
    Now I don't believe any of these politically spun figures. If you've got BLS figures, or Fed figures, or some other comparable figures, as opposed to Republican or Democratic figures that help, please do post them here.
    But also, please be careful when you do so. I saw above that you said that layoffs were starting to rise. Layoffs have been declining, though the unemployment rate has started to rise. It's easy to misuse terms whether inadvertently or deliberately and draw mistaken conclusions.
    Layoffs and Discharges: Total Nonfarm (Oct 2022 - Sept 2023)
    image
    Unemployment Rate (Oct 2022 - Sept 2023)
    image
  • Most Americans are better off financially now than before the pandemic
    ...according to CBS, the The typical American household must spend an additional $11,434 annually just to maintain the same standard of living they enjoyed in January of 2021, right before inflation soared to 40-year highs.
  • High yield long term CDs
    Thanks. Understood. I thought it to be worth sharing that NORTHEAST BANK is offering up to 15 month CD at 5.3% yield. FDIC insured, of course. Branches are in Maine, but of course, a money transfer ought to be routine with account number and routing number. ($5k minimum.)
    https://www.northeastbank.com/
  • TIAA outage
    Access has now been down all of November. This has become "service" as usual. The whole stock market was up and running six days after 9/11. It can't possibly be five times as hard to fix this cyberattack on TIAA's third party server or to migrate operations to another third party provider.
    Please be advised that TIAA Life is currently experiencing an operational outage due to a cybersecurity event with one of our vendors. Current account values are unavailable for individually owned life insurance policies and annuity contracts. We are diligently working with the vendor to mitigate the impact to you until the outage is resolved. At this time, we are unable to provide an estimated timeline for resolution. Any pending transactions will be completed as quickly as possible in the order in which they were received when serviced is restored. Your transaction will be processed effective the date it was received in good order, without negative impact to you. General TIAA Life product inquiries may be directed to the service center at 800 223-1200. This issue does not affect any other TIAA products. Account values and online services for all other TIAA products are available as usual.
    Notice there is no information on how to place those orders that will be processed later (in 2024?).
    At least I can log in and see my Nov 1 balance. Earlier today all I got was:
    Page Expired
    The page you are trying to access is no longer available.
  • BBG: Multistrat funds bubble in the making

    Interesting BBG piece about how a new crop of PE funds (and the existing players) may be setting up for market drama in the coming years due to insanely-crowded trades and positioning ...
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-11-30/ken-griffin-s-citadel-hedge-fund-rivals-draw-scrutiny-over-crowding-leverage?srnd=premium#xj4y7vzkg
    Nevertheless, I'm sure those highly-compensated pension fund advisors will continue singing the praises of such 'alternates' as a good 'diversifier' despite their risks and often exhorbitant fees.....and that many pension fund committees will be only too happy (or stupid / untrained) to go along with it or ask serious questions.
  • When the Market is Rising
    At a general, unsophisticated Rule, I ALWAYS plow $ into stocks near/at the end of three consecutive S&P DOWN months that cumulatively register a total drop near/in correction territory. That was the case a couple of days ago when I did my standard % dump in.
    And, FWIW, I try not to THINK of that Rule, or my overall investment strategy, as smart or dumb, because I KNOW the market will soon enough inform me I'm looking a lot like the other one!

    For the ST time being at least, with the major indexes all UP 5.1%-7.6% last week, the above-noted Rule has paid off much faster than usual, and provides support for the old adage that
    "Even a blind squirrel finds an acorn every once in a while!
    Meanwhile, the jury is still out on the move being smart or dumb LT.
    So...my so-called general, unsophisticated Rule worked again, for the time being at least.
    Nov was a monster month in stocks, with us personally recouping ALL of our paper losses of the past THREE months and then some.
    If you don't have a BUY plan, you might want to consider this one of mine for the times described in my prior posts. It's kind of a no-brainer, but emotions can sometimes keep investors from BUYing markets while they're in Correction. Applying this Rule eliminates the emotion. FWIW, I can't recall a time that it didn't work to near perfection.
    FWIW, our BUYs at the end of October were mostly to the general market, but we did also add to one Sector fund:
    Fund, MTD TR (thru 11/29)
    VTSAX, UP 8.9%
    FXAIX, UP 8.7%
    FSELX, UP 16.7%
  • AAII Sentiment Survey, 11/29/23
    AAII Sentiment Survey, 11/29/23
    BULLISH remained the top sentiment (48.8%; high) & bearish remained the bottom sentiment (19.6%, low); neutral remained the middle sentiment (31.7%, average); Bull-Bear Spread was +29.2% (high). Investor concerns: Budget; inflation; economy; the Fed; dollar; crypto regulations; market volatility (VIX, VXN, MOVE); Russia-Ukraine (92+ weeks); Israel-Hamas (7+ weeks); geopolitical. For the Survey week (Th-Wed), stocks were mixed (cyclicals up, growth down), bonds up, oil up, gold up, dollar down. Interest rates declined a bit. Gold & cryptos are rallying. #AAII #Sentiment
    https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/post/1268/thread
  • T Rowe Price Capital Appreciation & Income is live
    I got alphabet-soup-itis from all this.
    OK, TCAF is the ETF.... Next:
    PRWCX, the existing, CLOSED fund.
    I bookmarked a Bloomberg link for TCIFX. Is this ticker DEAD, now?
    Lastly, there is PRCFX (Investor class of the new fund: Cap. Apprec & Income Fund.) Then the Institutional shares are PRCHX.
    I will be watching for the ACTUAL grand opening. Figure $10/share?
  • Most Americans are better off financially now than before the pandemic
    Inflation has been the highest since the 80s at about 20% since 01/2020. Did employees get an equal increase to keep up with it? No
    "Median usual weekly earnings of full-time wage and salary workers ... quarterly averages, seasonally adjusted"
    https://www.bls.gov/news.release/wkyeng.t01.htm
    4th Quarter, 2019 - $935
    3rd Quarter, 2023 - $1,118
    Pct change (my calculation): 19.6%, or about 20%.
    Did employees get an equal increase to keep up with inflation? Yes.
    In case you consider my arithmetic suspect, the same BLS table gives figures in constant (inflation adjusted) dollars:
    4th Quarter, 2019 - $362
    3rd Quarter, 2023 - $365
    Did employees get higher wages in 2023, after inflation, than they did at the end of 2019? Yes, though the gain was barely discernable (about 1%) by these figures.
    People pay attention to their losses (high inflation items) more than their gains (items with prices rising less than their wages). They look at how much they lost to inflation since 1/1/20 (prices about 20% higher), rather than how much their portfolio made (VFIAX up 40% per M* chart). This is why metrics like Sortino ratio were invented - to measure what people focus on (losses).
    Do I feel bad every time I walk into a grocery store and see the prices? Yes, at least usually. However, iceberg lettuce is down from $6+ to $1.49. Overall, after looking at what I can afford, after reviewing my portfolio, do I feel good? Yup.
    I was able to afford a river cruise to Transylvania offered on Black Friday. Looking forward to seeing my ancestors' old stomping grounds. Might even run accross Vlad there :-)
    image
  • Most Americans are better off financially now than before the pandemic
    Big items went up.
    House are about 30% more expensive (https://www.atlantafed.org/center-for-housing-and-policy/data-and-tools/home-ownership-affordability-monitor)
    Vehicles are 30+% more expensive since 2020. Many categories went up 20+%(https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2023-inflation-economy-cost-of-living/#xj4y7vzkg).
    So, if you have a house, you are OK, if you want to buy it the first time, it's more than 30% higher.
    BTW, how much more your insurance increase in 2023?
    Inflation has been the highest since the 80s at about 20% since 01/2020. Did employees get an equal increase to keep up with it? No.
  • Fund Allocations (Cumulative), 10/31/23
    Fund Allocations (Cumulative), 10/31/23
    There were noticeable shifts out from stocks into m-mkt funds. The changes for OEFs + ETFs were based on a total AUM of about $30.92 trillion in the previous month, so +/- 1% change was about +/- $309.2 billion. Also note that these changes were from both fund inflows/outflows & price changes. #Funds #OEFs #ETFs #ICI
    OEFs: Stocks 50.42%, Hybrids 6.11%, Bonds 19.09%, M-Mkt 24.38%
    ETFs: Stocks 79.96%, Hybrids 0.43%, Bonds 19.61%, M-Mkt N/A
    OEFs & ETFs: Stocks 57.24%, Hybrids 4.80%, Bonds 19.21%, M-Mkt 18.75%
    https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/post/1267/thread
  • Most Americans are better off financially now than before the pandemic
    Good article.
    I can't wait until their outlook improves and they start shoveling the record $5.73 trillion
    in MM funds into the stock market...
    +1 And don’t forget the bond market. The current month long move in long duration bonds of all stripes and colors has been a lock out rally and one of the best in many a moon. Many muni funds have had but one down day the entire month and up 6% to 7%+. Tomorrow’s inflation report could be pivotal if this move is to continue. It has been said many times that the best money, be it stocks or bonds, is made long before the outlook improves and the coast is clear. Markets are anticipatory as well as counterintuitive.
    Edit: After today’s action make that 7% to 8%+ for munis. Other bond categories have seen double digit gains the past month.
  • T Rowe Price Capital Appreciation & Income is live
    Edgar/SEC filings will be under T Rowe Price Capital Appreciation (CIK#: 0000793347)/T rowe Price Capital & Income (Series: S000081993)
    https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=S000081993
  • T Rowe Price Capital Appreciation & Income is live
    Schwab message for a test purchase for PRCFX,
    "1. The symbol you entered is not available to trade. If you have entered this symbol in error, please try again. If you are attempting to place an order for a fund in subscription, thank you, but the fund is not yet available. Once the Subscription Offering Period begins you will be able to enter your order. Please call 800-435-4000 if you need further assistance."