But please leave out the widely understood part about past performance being no guarantee of future results. Got that part.

Ok, but that's exactly what you based your whole argument on. Past 3-5 year performance.
I do agree with everyone else though that with CD's at 5%, it's hard to take on more risk to get 6, 7 or 8% as rates plateau or start to come down. But it may be close to that time IMHO. I do believe the next 3-5 years will not look like the past 3-5 years. Extrapolate YTD returns on some of these funds now and it shows returns growing greater than 5% for the year.
The only bond fund I've held on to over the past couple years is in my withdrawal bucket, RPHYX. I recently added RGHYX and SAMBX to that bucket in small dosage. A couple TIP funds too, but that bucket still consist of more than 50% in 3-12 month treasuries, CDs and MM. I'll add, because it's not talked about much, also a nice consistent player in this bucket has been SPC, Crossing Bridge Pre-Merger SPAC ETF.

....
It is hard to beat 4 to 4.5%

=====================================
With taxable and municipal bond funds, indeed it is.
-------------------
Here's a link to the 1,921 taxable bond funds that Fido currently offers.
https://fundresearch.fidelity.com/fund-screener/results/table/overview/averageAnnualReturnsYear5/desc/1?assetClass=TBND&category=BL,CI,CL,CS,EB,FX,GI,GL,GS,HY,IB,IP,MU,NT,PI,RR,TW,UB,WH,XF,XP&order=assetClass,category
For kicks, sort them by descending 5-yr total returns.
Note that only 11/1,921, or 0.57% exceeded TRs of 4.50% for the past 5 years.
-------------------
Here's a link to the 903 municipal bond funds that Fido currently offers.
https://fundresearch.fidelity.com/fund-screener/results/table/overview/averageAnnualReturnsYear5/desc/1?assetClass=MBND&category=HM,MC,MF,MI,MJ,ML,MM,MN,MO,MP,MS,MT,MY,SI,SL,SM,SS&order=assetClass,category
For kicks, sort them by descending 5-yr total returns.
Note that only 0/903, or 0.00% exceeded TRs of 4.50% for the past 5 years.
-------------------
Read it again s-l-o-w-l-y and try to understand it.
Then s-l-o-w-l-y try to explain why an investor, going forward, should invest in either taxable or municipal bond funds in their portfolio's fixed income sleeve instead of say, 5-yr, 4.50%, non-callable CDs.
But please leave out the widely understood part about past performance being no guarantee of future results. Got that part.

Well! I've learned some lessons through the years. I cannot sell my smallish, mid-sized bank stock at THIS point. (Stick out foot, then pull trigger.) ...I did unload a true beast: PRISX. TRP Financials, though. I redeployed the money, not taking it out. When I get some spare cash again at the head of the month of June, I'll be buying more of BHB. They've even managed to RAISE the dividend a tiny bit. P/E stands at 7.23. And P/B is 0.84. Price-to-cash-flow = 5.96. Trailing div is 5.81%. (That last one is surely connected to the fall in the share price.) The geniuses at Morningstar say I'm holding a stock that sits at 33% less than its true value. Market cap = 343.7588 Mil. Call me stubborn. But this one I can see is a "keeper." This crisis will pass, like the others. And I sense that it's a GOOD thing that this stock is not in the news.

“The fear-driven selloff that’s cut the stock-market values of some banks in half may look like a perfect chance to buy the dips. If only they’d stop falling.  As shares of lenders (BKX) tumbled for a fourth straight week, investors are showing signs of throwing in the towel. They yanked $2.1 billion out of financial stocks in the week through May 10, the most since May 2022, according to Bank of America Corp. (BAC) strategists citing EPFR Global data. Exchange-traded funds focused on the sector saw the biggest exodus of cash since September, according to Refinitiv Lipper. And the $29 billion Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund has seen more than $2 billion pulled out over just the past two weeks.”
Yahoo Finance (Reprinted from Bloomberg)

@msf In addition to the evidence you provide about Dem vs Rep budgeting, there have been a number of studies refuting the 1998 research @Baseball_Fan cites by Feldstein and Wrobel regarding progressive tax policies, income inequality and wealth migration:
https://cbpp.org/research/state-budget-and-tax/tax-flight-is-a-myth
https://researchgate.net/publication/4731605_Do_Redistributive_State_Taxes_Reduce_Inequality
While it is possible for a billionaire to leave a high tax country for a low tax one with relative ease, it is far less likely for the average high-earning wealthy person to do this. Among the reasons is that normally people are usually later in their lives when they are at their peak earnings levels, and have established important career and business ties in their local area that are not so easy to rebuild in a new state. Moreover, moving is a pain, and causes disruption of family and friends.
The evidence indicates that Feldstein and Wrobel's research was skewed by the fact that progressive tax states already had high levels of income inequality to begin with before such taxes were enacted. It is one of the reasons the taxes were enacted in the first place. The taxes reduce inequality, but there remains often a higher than average level of income inequality in such states. No tax is going to fix the difference between a Silicon Valley millionaire/billionaire and the average person. But it eases the pain.

yes, even h.y. munis give 4.15 now. HYMU...although i don't own it.
I keep some bond funds, yes. I'm not the sort that reacts and makes moves based on the macro picture------much. SCHP tips and HYDB junk. And prcpx & tuhyx, both junk. I bought into tuhyx at just the wrong time. i held on, and it's very slowly rising for me. attractive dividends.

State budgets have to follow the rules of economics, because they cannot print money. CT was running neck and neck with IL for the most indebted state
consequently, taxes went way up, real estate shriveled ( housing prices were flat from 1987 to 2019!) and people left.
A moderate Democrat has refused the left wing's demand to spend more, and the pension deficit is easing.
Massachusetts was in similar shape in the past but they have a flat rate income tax, passed a law preventing town budgets from rising more than 2 1/2% without voter consent and they let loose Harvard and MIT Biotech and they are no longer Taxachussets.
But with the Covid budget surplus, the politicians want to spend again and they haven't learned their lesson
There are massive amounts of money that can be cut in the Federal budget, if the corporate hogs were kept away from the trough.
Medicare is a prime example. The US spends twice as much as any other country on health care, with worse results.
"Of the 10 highest paid among all corporate executives in the US in 2020, 3 were from Oak Street Health, and salary and benefits included, reportedly, $568 million for the chief executive officer (CEO). Executives in large hospital systems commonly have salaries and benefits of several million dollars a year."
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2801097
The budget busting Alzheimer's drugs are just the start.

subject says it all.
Press Release:
https://ir.oneok.com/news-and-events/press-releases/2023/05-14-2023-232007760
Merger Presentation:
https://ir.oneok.com/~/media/Files/O/ONEOK-IR-V3/financial-reports/2023/05-14-2023-investor-presentation.pdf
I own about 1000s MMP ... for now.

In late 2021, we greatly reduced bond exposure as multiple inflation signs flared up. That saved the misery in bonds through much of 2022 when we turned to CD Treasury ladders.
Right now, FED rate hike cycle is near the end (terminal rate) and likely to hold at that rate for the remaining of the year. This means that there are more opportunities to have respectable gains in bonds and bond funds. YTD total return of the Barclays aggregated bond index (bond benchmark) is up 3.7%, and it is only May. So there is still time to invest in bonds. If US falls into a severe recession, the FED will cut rate quickly and bond prices will go up too.
During the banking turmoil in March, bonds fell and recovered when FDIC and Treasury intervened. Otherwise, bonds have moved up most of the year. Today, we prefer high quality bonds including short- and intermediate-term treasury, total bond index (BND), and DODIX. Other bond exposure we have are from balanced ad global allocation funds.

I exchanged my core bond position (DODIX) for a stable-value fund at the end of 2021.
This was an uncharacteristic move on my part since DODIX represented ~20% of my overall portfolio.
My other fixed-income investments were sold during 2022 for different reasons:
1. Sold ultra-short-term bond fund to harvest tax losses.
2. Sold multisector bond fund after an abrupt fund manager departure.
The stable-value fund was exchanged for DOXIX (replaced DODIX in 401k) at the beginning of 2023.
Sales proceeds from the ultra-short-term and multisector bond funds were invested in T-Bills/VMRXX.
I'm comfortable with my current fixed-income allocation and have no plans
to increase/decrease bond positions in the near future.
We're probably close to the Fed's terminal rate (if not already there) during this tightening cycle.
I don't believe the Federal Reserve will be cutting rates soon unless we experience a sizable recession.

Look at Chicago, getting choked by the pension costs and debt service....just like virtually all democratic run cities in the USA.
There's no question that Chicago's pensions are way underfunded - its four unions have funding ratios ranging from just 21% to 46%, according to this 2022 WTTW (Chicago PBS) report. That's close to, if not at, the bottom of the pack. A 2019 Pew Research Center Report specifically called out Chicago for it low and rapidly declining funding ratio.
And that's the point. It's dangerous to draw inferences from a single data point, especially from an outlier. Instead, use broader data. Here's a 2023 report from the conservative think tank (per Crain's) Truth In Accounting. It presents 2021 debt (or surplus) per taxpayer for the 75 largest US cities, including pension liabilities. 25 cities have surpluses, 50 are in debt.
Ballotpedia reports that in 2020, of the mayors in the 100 largest cities, 64% were Democrats, 29% were Republicans, and 7% were nonpartisan. That's almost exactly in line with the breakdown of the 25 cities reported to have surpluses: 16 Democrats (64%), 8 Republicans (32%), and 1 nonpartisan (4%). Republicans don't seem to have done a better (or worse) job than Democrats in managing city budgets, once one controls for percentage representation.
this is what some people in a very low percentage of counties who vote for govt handouts want, not the huge majority of counties in the USA
Take care not to conflate people and counties. Otherwise one might wind up thinking that Illinois is a deep red state.

Then there's Los Angeles County. Just one of 58 counties in California, yet 25% of the state's people live there. One can have a majority of people in a minority, even a small minority of counties. What counts, or what should count, are the people, not the land.

Whether or not an investor should own foreign equities is a contentious topic in some circles.
Some prominent investors (Warren Buffett, Jack Bogle) have stated
that international diversification is not required.
"If you could predict the future there would be no reason to diversify but no one has the ability to know what comes next in the markets or global economy."
"Diversification is hard because you just know there is always going to be something in your portfolio that’s going to underperform. You just don’t know what that asset class or strategy it will be at any given time."
"Global diversification is about accepting good enough returns to avoid the potential for terrible returns at an inopportune time."
The author compares returns for the S&P 500 and MSCI World ex-U.S. indexes below.
We have MSCI data for international stocks going back to 1970.
Here are the annual returns for the S&P 500 and MSCI World ex-U.S. through April 2023:
U.S. stocks +10.5%
International stocks +9.1%
It’s also true that much of the outperformance has taken place during the latest cycle.
From 1970-2012, the annual returns were basically dead even:
U.S. stocks +9.7%
International stocks +9.6%
Link

Now only 2 more weeks of this manufactured crisis.

I couldn’t agree more. During the 2011’s debt limit debate, the Standard and Poor downgraded US treasury from AAA to AA and all three indexes fell 3-7% on the same days. Most likely this will trigger the downgrade again before the actual “defaulting”. The consequences are grave for the world economy. There is no hiding place in treasury and CDs.

Not sure I completely buy Subramanian’s argument on commodity as US is entering a recession. Oil, a major component of commodities is driven by supply and demand that follows the business cycles. Oil prices have been trading well below its high (Russian-Ukraine war) and fell again this week. Demand from the second largest economy, China, has not met the expected high demand for oil. Same argument can be made for industrial metals. The rise of gold this year to over $2,000 per ounce was driven by fear of economic collapses and recession, and its demand severing as a hedge is used by many investors.
Her argument that this recession is different from others is not sufficient to indicate a demand for commodities, even at the best scenario of a shadow recession or “soft landing”. In reality, there are other more severe “hard landing” scenarios.
For full disclose, we have made modest gains on commodity futures in 2020-2021 as we re-emerged from the pandemic. We exited our positions early this year as there are more compelling opportunities elsewhere.

From my perspective this is about the egregious spending by the Biden administration...his wacky progressive policies...frightening to think that one person, Manchin prevented the Grifter from spending another what $4 Trillion...to think we don't already have enough inflation. Funny how you don't see that kook Stephanie Kelton spouting her prattle regarding MMT on the propoganda outlets anymore...anyone with a rational thought knew and knows this is insane thinking.
Remove your political beliefs and do the math...it doesn't work, too much monies go towards entitlements and debt service. Tax the rich, tax the rich...No, you need to create a bigger revenue pool for cripes sake! Look at Chicago, getting choked by the pension costs and debt service....just like virtually all democratic run cities in the USA.
Earlier post by Lewis B stated this is what people want...No, this is what some people in a very low percentage of counties who vote for govt handouts want, not the huge majority of counties in the USA.
There has to be some compromise....no one wants to see a default. But this out of control spending needs to stop.
As I'm fairly certain we won't agree on any of this...my question to the class is WHEN exactly does the Schmeissing start in the stock market? Seems to be of not great concern meaning the debt limit to date...could happen any day now meaning a 10-20% drawdown?

yes, i'm glad they got rid of the yes-or-no quickie at the end, also.

me too!

+1.

Between March 8 and May 13 I only worry about the performance of my favorite baseball team.

Just checking in again since the first post on March 8th. Quote "78% prefer Value (IWD) (VONV) vs. 12% who like Growth (IWF)"
This (chart) since March 8th shows that IWF=growth continues to outperform IWD=value by more than 9% since and GLD did pretty well at 10+%
YTD: IWF leads by "only" 16.5% (chart).

The debt kept increasing during Drumpf's time in the WH and the GOP thugs happily enabled it. The GOP didn't suddenly discover religion on debt and deficits during Biden.
This is naked politics and McCarthy does not have the cojones to take a principled stand against the renegades who can throw him out as Speaker. McCarthy has always been a weasel his entire political life. He actually makes the toad McConnell look good.
The renegades are itching for a showdown...just because and skepticism about the disaster that will unfold with a default. This path by the GOP is going to bite them in the a@@ when there is a GOP President and Dems control one part of Congress.
All that said, as someone else before commented -- the sole purpose of the GOP is to enrich the top 10% of taxpayers but no question the GOP has done a brilliant job cobbling together a coalition of low IQ sods who actively vote against their own economic interests. The ludicrousness of red states that get more from the federal purse than their contributions to it is tragicomic.
Dems need to wake up and get to the center of hot button topics to expand the tent.

+1.