Tariffs Anent the fantasy of US "reindustrialization," Krugman today:
The economy changes over time, and so do the industries in which people work. A century and a half ago, despite rising industry, America was still largely a nation of farmers; today hardly any of us work on the land:
Oh, and many, possibly a majority of farm workers are foreign-born, with many of them undocumented.
You don’t hear a lot of nostalgia for the days when agriculture dominated employment, although some politicians still portray rural areas and small towns as the “real America.” (If you ask me, Queens, New York comes a lot closer to being who we are now.)
There is, however, a lot of nostalgia for the 1950s and 1960s, when more than a quarter of U.S. workers were employed in manufacturing. Income inequality was much lower in that era; many blue-collar workers considered themselves middle-class. And there’s a widespread narrative that
(a) attributes those good times for workers to the availability of well-paid jobs in manufacturing, and
(b) attributes the relative decline of manufacturing to outsourcing and trade deficits.
But is this narrative right? It’s a simple, compelling story, but as I tried to explain to Clinton all those years ago, the math doesn’t work. To preview the conclusions: Even if we could somehow eliminate our trade deficit (which Trump’s tariffs won’t do, but that’s another story), America wouldn’t reindustrialize — our manufacturing sector would be slightly bigger, but nothing like what it used to be. And any wage gains for ordinary workers would be trivial at best. ...
Reality check (closed, this has sort of run its course) Big Bang is the place I go for investing chat.
Big Bang has been directing the political dumpings here:
"I may or may not moderate political posts (which most of these are) unless they are rabid, but I do encourage people to keep to the topic "Economic Impact of Tariffs". If you want to discuss the politics of tariffs, please go here:
www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/63635/tariffs/p7"
"No, you don't have to offer your solution to trade problems. This forum is for investing. Take it off-line with Raq. BB is not going to follow MFO into the mud-wrestling pit."
Any good sources for CEF performance in 2008? / Question answered. Thanks all! Thanks
@Mark /
@msfCEF Connect did the job (provided the fund existed in ‘08). Losses appear in line with how growth stock OEFs performed. The worst one of what I hold, UTF, lost
57% in ‘08. I’ll probably sell that one. Two I plan to add are FMY (+4.
56%) and ETJ (+6.32%). And there were 3 decent performers which I currently own: GDL ( -8.4
5%), MMT (-9.61%), TSI (-6.32%).
@msf is correct that MIN gained in ‘08. I’ve had that one on radar. But seems to have lagged cash for a decade or more.
One of interest is MGF which invests in government paper and rose +26.29% in 2008. But it hasn’t kept pace with cash over the past decade. I suppose it might someday make a useful hedge. Perhaps even in the near future. :)
Tariffs Is it normal for the POTUS to instruct a retail company (Walmart) to eat tariffs that he was responsible for?As to FOTUS demanding companies bend to his tantrums on tariffs, pricing, and production locationsWaPo:
Trump’s view of his role was reflected in his recent comparison of the U.S. economy to a department store. “It’s a giant, beautiful store, and everybody wants to go shopping there,” he
told Time magazine last month. “And on behalf of the American people, I own the store, and I set prices, and I’ll say, if you want to shop here, this is what you have to pay.”
...
Trump is not the first president to take a direct hand in economic decisions, although that has generally happened when the country faced dire conditions.
Franklin D. Roosevelt, scrambling to overcome the Great Depression, personally dictated the government’s daily price for gold, reportedly raising it by 21 cents on one occasion because that was a lucky number. Richard M. Nixon, worried that inflation would dampen his reelection prospects, imposed wage and price controls in 1971.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2025/05/18/trump-economy-tariffs-taxes-trade/Is it normal? No. Does it happen? Yes, under dire conditions. Though not when those dire conditions are self-induced (higher costs due to tariffs).
Any good sources for CEF performance in 2008? / Question answered. Thanks all! You may need to change the M* chart settings. It sometimes defaults to monthly frequency. Make sure that this is set to daily, then try it again.
Also, make sure that you have selected the data type(s) that you want. NAV or price, with or without divs. Personally I prefer to include divs because without that I don't get a sense of total return.
As an example, and to illustrate the impact of leverage in a down market, I charted (on M*) MIN (unleveraged) vs MMT (current leverage is around 1/4), from 12/28/2007 to 12/30/2008 - just to show that dates other than month's end can be used.
MIN price only - 2.79%
MIN NAV only - (4.55%)
MIN price+div - 13.01%
MIN NAV+div - 3.94%
MMT price only - (15.28%)
MMT NAV only - (15.71%)
MMT price+div - (8.14%)
MMT NAV + div - (9.61%)
This is not to say that leverage doesn't help over the long term, but it can be deadly at times. From 12/28/2007 to now, the cumulative price+div returns are:
MIN price+div - 111.82%
MMT price+div - 247.87%
Still, between 10/31/21 and 10/14/22, MMT (price+div) lost 30.47% while MIN lost "only" 17.88%. For perspective BNDW (Vanguard Total World Bond) lost 14.85%.
Tariffs You can learn from somebody else's mistakes. Watching these negotiations was a lesson in how not to approach a situation.
Liberation day was a bust.
On Friday, Trump claimed about 150 countries would soon receive letters “essentially telling” them of new US duty rates on their exports. Many learned of similar rates last month, only for the plan to change in a matter of days.
Not much winning here.
Well, at least he negotiated some shady deals in the Middle East for his family this past week. I'm sure he feels "liberated".
Any good sources for CEF performance in 2008? / Question answered. Thanks all! In most charting tools, using multiple tickers switches to %changes, while single tickers may display prices.
StockCharts allows dates to 1985.
Interesting Chart - Fund Fee Trends for 2025
4 Fund Fee Trends to Watch in 2025
Keep an eye on the growth of once-novel investment strategies and the industry’s push into higher-cost areas. Investors should continue seeking low-cost funds and avoid paying unnecessarily high fees for complicated products. Some higher-cost funds and ETFs may prove beneficial for investors, but any benefit should match the higher cost.
https://morningstar.com/funds/4-fund-fee-trends-watch-2025
July MFO Ratings & Flows Posted Just posted all ratings and flows to
MFO Premium site, using Refinitiv data drop from Friday, 16 May 202
5.
Reality check (closed, this has sort of run its course) The IRA is mostly in SPAXX now,You might consider moving that to FZDXX ($10K min in IRA), though it would only have gotten you six extra basis points YTD.
Almost enough to feel stupid about :-)
Summary prospectus
Reality check (closed, this has sort of run its course) This post belongs in Other Investing as much as some other posts I have followed in recent months. Politics and investing (at least short term trading) seem to be fairly highly intertwined these days. I suspect it will take at least a few more months to get a reasonable sense for the intermediate term extent and impact of Trump's evolving tariff policies. Federal budget parameters should also become clearer during that time period. I have not touched my portfolio since early January and am not inclined to change that approach based on what I have observed so far this year. (YTD my portfolio is up 0.9% with 72% invested in stocks (per Fido).)
Haven't touched the taxable account. It's doing pretty well since the largest positions are funds like DODGX, VWIGX, and DIVO. SEQUX has been the real star. Things should work out OK by the time all that is left to the kids. I'ld have to log in, and do some math to figure it all out since I'm at least 30% cash there, and I don't track that portion at M*. What I do track is up 2.84.
I can't be that sanguine with the retirement fund since it's purpose is to keep me from funding retirement from selling off the taxable. I wouldn't have been happy watching it lurch from pillar to post with all of the Tariff Theater churn coming out of DC.
The IRA is mostly in SPAXX now, so call it up 1.
50 YTD, to save me from another login, and more math. M* tells me that SPY is up 1.69 YTD. Do I feel stupid missing out on that extra .0014? Oooh boy. I'll just have to grin and bear it. :)
I won't even try to predict when I might feel safe getting a little riskier with the IRA. I am eying some bond funds with standard deviations below 1. Can't say that I have been tempted to spend any of the dry powder in the taxable either. Like Chairman Powell, I feel reasonably well postioned to watch things develop.
Tariffs
Normal for a mob boss, yeah.
Is it me or did his tweet earlier today essentially say that China wasn't paying tariffs? So if they weren't, who was? Oh, right ... the American consumer. (But let's not talk about that, mmmksy?)