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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Robo-Advisors - Barron's Rankings, 2022
    I have not delved into Robo-Advisors or their products.
    Since Schwab Robo is mentioned a few times, how does their performance compare against a moderate allocation fund such as PRWCX, FBAKX, & VWELX over a 1, 3, & 5 year period.
    I am always looking for passive, buy and hold options. If the Schwab Robo performance (inclusive of cash) keeps pace with a combination of the above three active funds, then Schwab Robo is attractive.
    What is Schwab's stated logic of keeping 12% permanently in cash?
  • Robo-Advisors - Barron's Rankings, 2022
    @MikeM, The Professor’s a true “buy and holder” from what I can recall. However, does make adjustments occasionally. I’m eager to hear his more recent take on TMSRX. (An alt fund?) I think he owned a fair amount at one time. I and a few others have entirely vacated this one over the past year.
    On another note, I think you’re just a bit harsh on those of us who use some “alternative” funds. What’s in a name? FWIW my “alternative” sleeve does contain some more traditional alt funds, but also included in it are 3 individual stocks representing 3 different (alternative) sectors: Insurance, a large regional bank, and a global food producer / distributor.
    Re the performance chasers, yes, I see what you see but would never call anyone out. And - there are those rare individuals who know and understand momentum investing. But, like you, I see some buying high and selling low.
    I may have indirectly touched on that last point in a different post recently (See below.)
    -
    Relevant Excerpts:
    However, when I see & hear average investors trying to time buys and sells based on the most recent print or electronic pundentary (consumer sentiment / inflation / deflation / recession / depression / interest rate direction / Fed discount rate and Federal Reserve “projections” - duh), I think of the futility of it all.
    Do those concepts matter? Yes. It’s just that I think there are financial professionals making decisions based on those readings who are 2 or 3 steps ahead of most of us. We’re the guy showing up at the fire with a garden hose and shovel after the fire brigade has already arrived. Or the fella dipping a net in the lake right after the commercial trawlers have swept through.”
    Here’s the Thread
  • "too late to cancel."
    @Crash, I like the suggestion from David. Also, I’ve found nothing works as well as a carefully typewritten letter outlining your case and sent to a company’s customer relations department by certified mail. It serves notice that you’re a literate person who might just be willing to enlist your own legal representation, write nasty online reviews, or refer the case to regulators. No need to say that. Don’t threaten. They’ll infer as much if letter is well written. Doesn’t always work, but worth the effort.
    However, since you’re not intending to pursue this any further with TRP, I’ve linked some music to lesson your angst from the album “Too Late to Cancel” by Mitch Benn and the Distractions.
    Too Late To Cancel is the third album by Mitch Benn, released in 2004 under the name of 'Mitch Benn and The Distractions' and featuring his backing band composed of Kirsty Newton (of Siskin) and Tasha Baylis (of Hepburn). All songs were written by Mitch Benn. Several had previous versions feature in the radio shows The Now Show, It's Been a Bad Week and Mitch Benn's Crimes Against Music.”
    Track Listing
    "We Haven't Got A Clue" – 2:32
    "Never Went Through A Smiths Phase" – 2:17
    "Boy Band" – 3:13
    "I Want" – 1:17
    "Can't Do Disco" – 2:33
    "Lonesome Führer" – 2:43
    "Stinky Pants" – 2:14
    "Now He's Gone" – 2:51
    "Never Mind The Song (Look At The Stage Set)" – 3:22
    "Tea Party" – 2:39
    "One-Way System Blues" – 2:53
    "Hard To Shock" – 3:07
    "I'm Still Here" – 1:28
    "West End Musical" – 3:48
    "The Hardest Song In The World To Find" – 3:12
    "Please Don't Release This Song" – 3:05
    "The Interactive Song (Live)" – 2:58
    "Macbeth (My Name Is) (Live)" – 4:48
    "Baby I'm Sorry (Live)" – 3:43

  • Current New Issue CDs
    I think that you change (nonqualified) annuity carriers through 1035 Exchange. It is not a complicated form but just another layer of paperwork beyond normal account/money transfer paperwork. I found a sample 1035 Exchange form from NY Life. Inheriting annuity (or anything else) can be more complicated due to required proof of death and the legitimacy of beneficiaries; besides, there are different options for spouse and non-spouse beneficiaries.
    https://www.nylannuities.com/assets/documents/applications-and-forms/service-forms/1035 Exchange Form.pdf
  • Current New Issue CDs
    Don't you have the option to take your monies elsewhere after the 5 year term? And couldn't the APY go up if interest rates go up 5 years from now?
    YBB - so after you are 59.5 no penalty, to moving your monies after term expires correct?
    Generally no fees, correct? (I'm asking, I don't know)
    I do know when my wife inherited an annuity it was a colossal and I mean colossal task getting the monies from the insurance company...so many hurdles, BS was off the charts....from rather well known company.
    Thanks for the replies
  • Current New Issue CDs
    Local paper ad. 2yr annuity 2.85 , 3yr 3.35 , & 4yr 3.6 %. 100 k minimum .
    What happens if holder dies ?
  • Current New Issue CDs
    Keep in mind that once an annuity, always an annuity (until 59.5).
    So, that 5-yr term-annuity can only be rolled into another term-annuity to avoid 10% penalty before 59.5.
    So, comparison with 5-yr CD (bank or brokered) is not fair.
    Insurance co is counting on keeping that annuity money forever by offering 5-yr teaser rate.
  • Current New Issue CDs
    Team,
    Might be off topic but more adjacent to convo....
    Please talk to me and share opinions, experience with...Immediate Fixed Rate Annuities.
    Looking on bluprintincome.com...
    5 year, term, balance percent withdrawls allowed, Brighthouse, A rated, 4.30%.
    advantages, disadvantages, tax consequences, etc?
    Obviously not FDIC insured but....why would someone NOT do this rather than a 5 year CD?
    Thoughts?
    Best,
    Baseball Fan
  • Current New Issue CDs
    A few years back I bought a 2 yr Cd @ 3%. After the second year came to an end I "wished " I had a 5 yr CD as their rates went into a steady decline.
    I believe a CD ladder is the way to go. That kind of puts a lot of cash into one CD on hold.
    Have a pleasant Sunday, Derf
  • U.S. Government Defaults
    I've often heard that the U.S. government has never defaulted on its debt.
    This is simply incorrect as four explicit defaults have occurred.
    Link
  • Robo-Advisors - Barron's Rankings, 2022
    People often say that allocation/balanced funds are declining, dead, kaput. But they are wrong. Broadly speaking, target-date funds, robo-advisors and age-based 529s are nothing but allocation/balanced funds in some form. So, this universe is expanding. Robo-advisors alone are $1 trillion now.
    Completely agree. I checked out Wealthfront the other day and opened a portfolio. I've followed them from their earliest days and was a fan of Andy Rachleff (spelling?).
    I was kind of shocked with Wealthfront's suggested "portfolio solution". It was a 3 ETF portfolio that I could of built myself. Is this what Roboadvisors have come to be?
  • Matthews Asia - New CEO
    Word on the street is that Bill Hackett was asked politely to retire, or in otherwords, he was fired. Matthews has lost more than 10 portfolio managers in the last 2 years, and no, they aren't people retiring but rather the up and coming, next generation portfolio managers that got tired of poor leadership of the firm. Tiffany Hsiao, Beini Zhang, Lydia So, Raymond Deng, Rahul Gupta are just a few names. Just last month, Teresa Kong head of fixed income, also left. This exodus of talent is unprecedented and something I've never seen in my career from a small boutique.
    Per their website, Matthews Asia's assets stood at $17.2 billion as of July 2022. I was in their offices in 2017/2018 and their assets were nearly $35 billion. I've heard from portfolio managers at the company that most of the drop in assets are due to outflows (clients redeeming), not markets.
    It sounds like Cooper was brought in to try and turn things around. He has a tough job ahead of him. Besides massive outflows, the performance of the funds has been horrible. Their flagship, Pacific Tiger has underperformed its benchmark for nearly the last 5 years. Two of their other big funds, Innovators and Asia Growth, were heavily loaded with tech names and took huge hits with the latest correction.
    https://www.matthewsasia.com/funds/mutual-funds/asia-growth/pacific-tiger-fund/?FundClassType=MIPTX
    Matthews fall from grace has been sad to see. I met with their founders years ago and loved their passion for Asia and entrepreneur spirit. But that energy left the firm many years ago, and the firm has become mediocre at best. I wish Cooper luck, but its a steep mountain to climb and competitors have really stepped up their game in both Asia and EM. Matthews is not the only trick in town anymore.
  • RiverPark Short Term High Yield Instl RPHIX vs NexPoint Merger Arbitrage Z HMEZX
    Some notes from the RPHIX/RPHYX 06-30-2022-Shareholder letter (I've added the bold):
    As of June 30, 2022, the portfolio was comprised of securities with an average maturity of 4.43 months. At quarter-end, the invested portfolio had a weighted average Expected Effective Maturity of 11/10/22, and 43.10% was comprised of securities with an Expected Effective Maturity of 30 days or less.
    As of June 30, 2022, the Weighted Average Market Yield to Effective Maturity was 7.17% for Effective Maturities of 31 days or more. That comprised 57% of the invested Portfolio.
    yes, thank you, I've seen that article. Are the concerns still valid today?
  • RiverPark Short Term High Yield Instl RPHIX vs NexPoint Merger Arbitrage Z HMEZX
    Thank you for the comments, my appeal to both funds because although they may have different investment approaches can be used as "cash" when the funds are not invested, like right now. I am about 95% in RPHIX. Why wait when the markets break moving averages as even smart people like Meb Faber in Tactical Asset Allocation use tools to reduce the drawdowns and stomach ulcers, Ulcer Index. https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=962461.
    This is my personal view, in contrast to a view by the bogleheads crowd to hold the allocation no matter what. Yes, I am using various tools to gauge the risk levels and premiums. Let's just say that even if you hold equities, it is a very smart idea to add put options as well in today's environment. I don't "play" too much with options, but the tools are handy. Why sit in the 17%-20% drawdowns, especially knowing that the Fed will continue to reduce liquidity from the market?
    And as @TheShadow mentioned Fed just raised the CDs and you are locking yourself for several years and risking paying early withdrawal penalties. I do have 3% CDs with Andrews. I locked right when Covid hit. It doesn't make sense to have all my money in CDs.
    The appeal of HMEZX is that although it has a bit higher st deviation, the return is higher with this vs RPHIX. I use portfoliovisualiser extensively, and although, it is a backward-looking tool, it provides clues about the stability of funds and how they fared in various environments.
    So, I goal is to ask if you have valid reasons to avoid HMEZX, but also looking forward to your thoughts/ideas. Thank you
  • QT
    Barron's article has 2 charts that cannot be linked except as screenshots. But I find that less appealing. FRED is cited as reference, so I created those 2 charts using FRED - see links at the end. The articles goes on to explain that appearances are deceptive and the Fed is allowing 3-mo settlements for its MBS purchases and is also reinvesting paydowns. And then notes the QT bump (as planned) coming in September. A short synopsis is in my Part 2, LINK:
    "ECONOMY. People are confused by the Fed QT (or, -QE). Some even wonder if QT has started – yes, in June. Right now, the roll-offs are at a half-pace, the MBS at -17.5 billion/mo, the Treasuries at -30 billion/mo but those will become full strength in September (to -35 billion/mo and -60 billion/mo, respectively). So, why haven’t the Fed balances of MBS declined, although the Treasury balances have declined some? Well, the Fed allows 3-mo settlements for MBS bought to lessen any housing market disruptions, so yes, the MBS declines are surely coming. Moreover, any mortgage paydowns are being reinvested. So, the QT will become more visible after September. But remember that QT has been tried only once before and it amounts to an effective rate hike of an unknown amount, so the Fed is being cautious. Also, dollar strength had the effect of an additional rate hike of unknown amount. Remember all this going on in the background as most people are focused only on fed fund rate hikes. Also, that the QE had an effect, so will the reverse QE, or QT."
    FRED - MBS https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=SxNg
    FRED - Treasuries https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=SxNo
  • Robo-Advisors - Barron's Rankings, 2022
    Thanks for the new info.
    I remembered that Investopedia had its Robo-Advisor Ranking earlier in the year. So, I checked the stuff I saved/bookmarked, and sure, there was this from 2/28/22.
    https://www.investopedia.com/investopedia-2022-best-robo-advisors-awards-5220680
    What you have posted is 7/31/22 "update" with different authors but the info appears the same/similar. I will compare and see what they are trying to do now.
  • Safe Withdrawal Rates (SWRs)
    @Bee, as ORP's James Welch is older than I (75), I fear the worst, but I have not written him. At least it is not a 404.
  • RiverPark Short Term High Yield Instl RPHIX vs NexPoint Merger Arbitrage Z HMEZX
    Some notes from the RPHIX/RPHYX 06-30-2022-Shareholder letter (I've added the bold):
    As of June 30, 2022, the portfolio was comprised of securities with an average maturity of 4.43 months. At quarter-end, the invested portfolio had a weighted average Expected Effective Maturity of 11/10/22, and 43.10% was comprised of securities with an Expected Effective Maturity of 30 days or less.
    As of June 30, 2022, the Weighted Average Market Yield to Effective Maturity was 7.17% for Effective Maturities of 31 days or more. That comprised 57% of the invested Portfolio.
  • "too late to cancel."
    Crash, send them email noting that your cancel order was submitted 9:15a ET or whatever it was and see what they say, and report back.
    Many times over the year with both ML and Fidelity I have submitted buy / sell orders and canceled within the last minute or two, no problem, though the usual 'you are attempting a trade | cancellation close to market close and' yada yada.
  • QT
    Mr. Rattner believes markets are overly optimistic about how much the Fed will need to hike rates.
    He contends rates will have to increase substantially since the embedded rate of inflation is 4% - 5%.
    He is currently fairly bearish on stocks.