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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • CDs versus government bonds
    @Old_Joe. +.1. Your remarks about the possible hazard of a 5 year CD @5% in the face of declining rates are insightful. And loading up on such counting on the FDIC is an example of a moral hazard.
  • PKSAX? What do you think?
    @Old_Joe… I bought VSCRX through my 401K… no load
  • PKSAX? What do you think?
    These are the key attributes that attracted me to PKSAX. It is the only equity fund that I have found that has the combination of Great owl, consistent strong long term performance (3 year -- 15.9%, 5 year -- 13.9%, 10 year -- 14.9%), what I consider to be reasonable Max drawdowns in both March 2020 of 18.3% and 2022 of 17.7%, and managers who have been in place for a long time (since 2008). It has consistently beaten both its index and its category and does so with a non-traditional approach to sector selection. It has heavy concentrations in both industrials and financials which are quite different from its index. I was able to purchase it through the Thrift Savings plan which is the government's retirement program. I wonder if it might also be available in some other 401k programs. You are right its unfortunately not available at Schwab and Fidelity. Lewis is correct in that it is fairly concentrated, but it has managed that risk to date quite well. I would be very interested if anyone has identified any funds with similar attributes. I think they are rare...
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    I bought GS 2 days ago and SCHW today. Hard to pull the trigger but that’s when you need to do it

    +1.
    Indeed. Added to a regional bank CEF (BTO) and then to PRU, and C.
  • CDs versus government bonds
    Our Social Security benefit is 55k per year. Home is paid off and no debt.
    We live pretty frugally - pretty much homebodies (boring you could say).
    I have just started to calculate how much we will spend including Medi-Care, taxes etc.
    We have no equities - all in CD’s and Money Market. I don’t have the stomach for the stock market.
    I did come across a 5%, 5 year CD with this credit union. It seems to be well established and the early withdrawal penalty is better than most. It’s supposed insured by the government. I would appreciate your opinion on it. Most other institutions are in the 4.5 range.
    https://allincu.com/
    All In Credit Union - 5.00% APY
    Term (months): 60
    Minimum deposit: $1,000
    Early-withdrawal penalty: 3 months of interest
    Membership: Anyone can join All In by signing up for a free membership in the Fort Rucker/Wiregrass Chapter of the Association of United States Army, keeping at least $5 in a savings account, and paying a one-time fee of $1.
    I’ll look into CD and Treasury ladders as I don’t understand the advantages over regular CD’s but it would seem those exempt from federal taxes would/could make a big difference.
    Thanks for all the feedback!
  • Do others have a favorite fund, or two?
    @sfnative - I give the fund credit for recovering the loss in 2018 ergo my 2 yr comment
  • PKSAX? What do you think?
    MikeW mentioned this fund in another thread. I was going to ask for your opinions on this one, but when I tried entering a "test order" at Schwab it shows open to existing buyers only. Anyway, below is some info from Schwab- it looks to be a pretty good fund.
    image image image
  • CDs versus government bonds
    With respect to directly- (bank-) sold CDs, Ken Tumin at depositaccounts.com has a cautionary note:
    Some banks and credit unions have language in their CD disclosures that allows them to refuse an early withdrawal request. Although CD early withdrawal refusal by a bank or credit union is rare, it is possible. Review the CD disclosure for this type of wording.
    https://www.depositaccounts.com/blog/2019-study-cd-early-withdrawal-penalties-changed.html
    He reports finding typical early withdrawal penalties averaging around 1 year's interest on a 5 year CD. Tolerable I suppose if you hold the CD for at least half way. The piece was written in 2019; I doubt penalties have gone down since then.
    Broker-sold CDs can be harder to get out of. This is usually done by selling them on the secondary market. The CDs are thinly traded and one risks losing a lot by selling early.
    Either way, with bank failures more than a theoretical concern now, you should probably check into the financials of the bank you're thinking of using. While a CD and its accrued interest is insured, should the bank fail, your rate going forward might be reduced. This isn't a concern for short term CDs. However, you're looking to lock in a rate for many years, and that could be stymied by a bank failing.
    https://publicintegrity.org/inequality-poverty-opportunity/when-banks-fail-so-do-those-promised-cd-rates/
    Buying a CD (for some of your money) is not a bad idea, you just need to exercise care.
    ---
    I think you (OP) meant that if interest rates rise and you need cash, selling a bond could result in a significant loss. Just look at what happened at Silicon Valley Bank.
  • Does anyone have a fav fund or two LOOKING FORWARD
    Started to nibble at hstrx.
    Not a bad pick if you can buy NTF. There’s a fee at Fido. I looked at that one yesterday and was surprised it hasn’t done better this year with both gold and bonds having a decent year. Your question doesn’t define the time frame. For most nowadays a year seems an eternity. Some have much shorter and will eject after a month or two or three when a fund heads south.
    I must not have any favorites because I have 20 different holdings. The largest 4 come in at 10% of portfolio each. They represent different variations on alternative and asset allocation type funds where I’m most comfortable at my age. While each could loose 5 or 10% in a terrible year, as a group they are fairly stable - very much “set it and forget it” type holdings. I rationalize a somewhat expensive L/S alternative by considering the overall cost of my funds and also by holding a few individual stocks to reduce costs.
    You mention EM funds. I have a very small 1-2% hold in one. Bought in at the depths last year, so it’s already gained some. Before it gets back to any kind of reasonable valuation I will sell and roll the $$ into a broadly diversified balanced fund at the same house. In that case you’re paid to wait because by most accounts EM valuations are still compelling. I have a very small 2% bite on SPDN - an 1X inverse S&P. That’s to moderate volatility on down days. I think there are many other areas that will perform much better than the S&P over the next several years. With that inverse offset it allows taking on a bit more risk in other areas. International funds plus a few individual socks stocks are some I like. Japan is a long-shot. But exposure there might add a bit of diversification relative to domestic markets.
    Inserted later - Non dollar-hedged Japan adds a currency play. I suspect that’s the better way to go at this point. Check back in a year.
    Whoever said PRPFX in @MikeM’s thread made good sense to me. With some funds, throw away the performance numbers and look at what’s inside. If you see a case for precious metals, foreign currencies, real estate, and some AAA government bonds for defense in the future you might like the fund. I do. Albeit, some criticize it saying fees are too high for what amounts to a passive investment approach.
  • Wealthtrack - Weekly Investment Show
    Dividend-paying stocks are gaining new respect among investors, and they are proving to be a protective asset in times of market volatility. ClearBridge Investments’ Dividend Strategy Fund has been named one of “The Best Dividend Funds” for 2023 by Morningstar. Michael Clarfeld, co-portfolio manager of the fund, is with us to explain why high-quality companies with histories of growing their dividends are particularly valuable now.


  • CDs versus government bonds
    Don’t know about your finance situation and risk tolerance. So here it goes for your questions on CDs:
    1. As of today the only CDs that yield 5% are those with shorter duration ones, 9-12 month. Creating a CD ladder is necessary in order to maintain cash flow (income) as you desired. For example, a one-year ladder consisting of 4 CDs with each maturing every 3 months would provide income every 3 months. So it boils down to how much extra income you want from your CDs. Don’t forget that the interest accrued from CDs is taxed as ordinary income with both federal and state tax applies. Treasury bills/notes are federal tax-exempt but state tax is still applied.
    2. CDs are safe (FDIC insured) but they are not liquid during the investment period. Some bank CDs pay interest monthly, but they pay at lower yield. Brokered CDs at your brokerages pay higher yield, but majority of them pay at maturity, not monthly. Treasury bills (1 -12 months), on the other hand, are highly liquid and one can sell them on secondary market if necessary. Creating T bills ladders will provide periodic income just as CD ladders.
    3. At current inflation rate (CPI as of Feb 2023 is at 6.2% y-o-y), you are losing future buying power each year by investing in CDs alone. Thus, other investment vehicles such as stocks, bonds, and others are required as part of the “growth” component of your retirement income.
    Within this MFO discussion forum, you are getting opinions from other investors. The best answer should come from your financial planner. At least you have something to consider as a starting point. Best wishes.
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    I bought GS 2 days ago and SCHW today. Hard to pull the trigger but that’s when you need to do it
    +1.
  • CDs versus government bonds
    I’m 70 and still working. I have about 700k in savings and CDs, home is paid off and I plan to retire in a year.
    I am considering putting a portion of the $ into long-term CDs since the interest rates are near 5%.and relatively safe.
    I figure if the worst possible scenario happens, I can always withdraw from the CDs and pay the penalty, From what I understand government bonds could be less forgiving in that if the interest rates fall I would have to sell the bonds at that price.
    I just want to have some extra income coming in after I retire and am tempted to invest in 5 or even even 10 year CDs.
    Any advice would be appreciated.
  • Do others have a favorite fund, or two?
    PRWCX
    RWMGX (AF WaMu Investors 0 where 100% of my 403b is parked)
    PRBLX/PRILX is a good one I've held, too. Wish there was an ETF version b/c it pays out big each year.
  • Morningstar charts not working
    In my email: a correction notice from wonderful Morningstar. I don't even think I was affected, because I never use the "My View" feature, and don't use the phone for data.
    The text:
    Dear Morningstar Customer,
    We wanted to make you aware of a recent error you may have encountered.
    Between February 2022 and March 2023, Morningstar displayed incorrect Analyst Ratings for a subset of Funds and ETFs. The incorrect Analyst Ratings would have been visible to users in the Desktop "My View" or the Mobile App "Portfolio View.” The issue has since been corrected.
    During the same period, ratings were displayed correctly within the default Tracking view in legacy Portfolio Manager, as well as on the securities’ quote pages.
    Should you have questions, please contact our support team at
    (312) 424-4288.
    Thank you,
    The Morningstar Investor team
  • King Cash
    Good, pithy, valuable read. Thank you, @Mark.
    ...Just saw something else, doing some homework for a friend. They're in Fido. I'm attempting to find out the current interest rate being generated by the Fidelity "Cash Management" account they are saving into. They started out from zero, and their balance is still just a few hundred.
    The fine print says that deposits are "swept" into bank accounts? I have a sweep acct. at TRP, but the money is put into Treasuries and repurchase agreements. WTF? The posted rate at Fido is just 2.34%. Am I missing something? TRP "sweep" is offering 4.31% and my own "Personal Rate of Return" since inception is 3.24%.
    https://www.fidelity.com/cash-management/fidelity-cash-management-account/overview
  • TCAF, an ETF Cousin of Closed Price PRWCX
    Steve Romick manages both FPACX and SOR Source Capital a closed end fund with a very similar portfolio
    Until 2021 or so they were almost identical. FPACX has done better since.
    Never quite understood why SOR is out there, but you can buy it for free at Schwab, although the mutual fund will cost you $50
  • TCAF, an ETF Cousin of Closed Price PRWCX
    The accounting on PRWCX has to be clean. It is not a fund-of-fund as it spells out in the prospectus.
    VGHCX is an active managed fund runs by Wellington and VHT is passively managed ETF runs by Vanguard Quantitative Group. They may share some stocks but their weightings and mandates are different. Their performance and risk profile are not identical.
    Another case, FPA Crescent is an allocation fund with a great record. The same team also runs a new global equity ETF, FPAG. They share some stocks in the top 10 holdings, but FPAG is more volatile along with oversea stocks and small % of emerging market. I much prefer the Crescent fund.
    @Mike W, going to ETFs has their trade off. Running active managed mutual funds is a highly competitive business on the stock picking and tactical moves in fast changing environment. That is their edge against their competitors. Smaller cap funds working with thinly traded stocks are particularly susceptible to being front-run by someone else to bid up the stock price while they are building up the position, or vice versa.
    By the time the managers talk openly about their portfolio, they have already bought enough for the new positions and made sizable changes/exiting certain stocks probably months afterward.
    We will see how Giruox runs this ETF, but I think it will be mostly stocks and little exposure to bond allocation. Thus it will not be a clone fund.