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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • AAII Sentiment Survey, 6/15/22
    The broader market on Thursday, the day after 75 bps rate hike is all red. And now it is in bearish territory with DJIA dripped below 30,000.
    Yes - I noticed the slide to below 30,000. What a contrast to less than a year ago when some were buying dips, even with a Dow above 35,000 and the NASDAQ 20-25% higher.
    I’m not in agreement with others here on the Fed rate hike. I’d have gone slower than they did. But I majored in the liberal arts and so know little about economic matters. Can’t help asking if folks are buying? I continue to dribble small amounts in - aware it can get much worse.
  • AAII Sentiment Survey, 6/15/22
    The broader market on Thursday, the day after 75 bps rate hike is all red. And now it is in bearish territory with DJIA dripped below 30,000.
    FED should have raised by 1%.
  • PIMCO TRENDS Managed Futures Strat Instl PQTIX
    @fred495: you’re right about PQT_X taking a hit yesterday; so did KMLM. However, with today’s merde show in the markets, KMLM has recovered smartly. I suspect the PIMCO funds will be positive this evening. Thanks for the info on the Wadhwany fund. PGIM seems to have several small shops under its large wing.
  • M* screwing everything up again
    I pay about $50 yearly for an app from Apple’s store. Positives and negatives. Usually one of the prices on a fund is inaccurate or missing.
    M* has been fine over several years.
    I’m looking now at Yahoo‘s free tracker. Provided recovery email. You can opt out of their request for a phone number, Confusing to set up. Also being bombarded with ads even with my blocker running.
  • AAII Sentiment Survey, 6/15/22
    The broader market on Thursday, the day after 75 bps rate hike is all red. And now it is in bearish territory with DJIA dripped below 30,000.
  • M* screwing everything up again
    M* Investor (Replacing Old/Legacy M* Portfolios)
    investor.morningstar.com/
    I haven't explored the new M* Investor fully. But some comments.
    1. I had stopped using the old Watch Lists because I couldn't add Notes there. There is a small headache in making entries in the Portfolios because they requires dates, share numbers and prices, but for "watchlist" purposes, I just entered random dates (start of the month/year), 1 share, $1 price. In fact, when I converted some old Watchlists to Portfolios, it internally almost did that. So, I won't miss the new less convenient access to Watchlists (via new pages).
    2. The Chart feature within M* Investors seems better - it can Compare different things (OEFs, ETFs, CEFs, stocks). This was a sudden new restriction of the Chart feature accessed from M* Homepage (that remains restrictive/limited). There are both Price and Growth-of-10K displays. However, these Charts are not linkable, and Export just creates a screenshot.
    3. One main change I see is that there won't be multiyear subscriptions, but yearly renewals only. I haven't checked the access/feature differences between M* Basic and M* Premium subscriptions.
    I will add more updates here,
    https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/thread/256/interactive-charts-newer?page=1&scrollTo=669
  • M* screwing everything up again
    I will certainly look at other options for basic portfolio monitoring before I pay $250. Another thing is if I do not use M* for portfolio stuff I will have no need to visit the site. Self defeating IMO.
  • M* screwing everything up again
    Nice to have advance warning.NOT. Where will we go to keep the data as I have many watch portfolios. New M* is $250 year.
  • AAII Sentiment Survey, 6/15/22
    For the week ending on 6/15/22, Sentiment was extremely negative: Bearish remained the top sentiment (58.3%; very high) & bullish remained the bottom sentiment (19.4%; very low); neutral remained the middle sentiment (22.2%; near average); Bull-Bear Spread was -38.9% (very low). Investor concerns included high inflation & supply-chain disruptions; the Fed (+75 bps hike was "leaked" to WSJ on Monday; expect more 50-75 bps hikes); market volatility (VIX, VXN, MOVE); Russia-Ukraine war (16+ weeks; no longer in headlines). For the Survey week (Thursday-Wednesday), stocks, bonds, oil, gold were all down, dollar was up. #AAII #Sentiment #Markets
    https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/thread/141/aaii-sentiment-survey-weekly?page=6&scrollTo=667
  • PIMCO TRENDS Managed Futures Strat Instl PQTIX
    Sorry, but PQTIX lost 1.70% today.
    But, PGAGX - PGIM Wadhwani Systematic Absolute Return Fund gained 0.66%! PGAGX, a fairly new fund, is currently on my watch list. Looking for lower volatility funds in this category. So far, so good.
    According to the Financial Times, the investment objective of the related UK fund is to seek a positive return on capital while simultaneously attempting to limit the risk of capital loss using a multi-faceted risk management. PGAGX intends to achieve its investment objective through investment in financial markets globally, gaining exposure through the use of financial derivative instruments to currencies (through forward foreign exchange contracts), fixed income securities (through bond futures) and equity securities (through equity index futures and equity index swaps) or by investing directly in equities.
    Per M*, the manager, Dr. Sushil Wadhwani, CBE, is the Chief Investment Officer for QMAW, originally founded as Wadhwani Asset Management in October 2002. Prior to joining QMA, Sushil served as the Founder and Chief Executive Officer of Wadhwani Asset Management. He was formerly a full-time member of the Monetary Policy Committee at the Bank of England from 1999 to 2002. Prior to this, his roles included director of research, head of systems trading and partner at the Tudor Group, and director of equity strategy at Goldman Sachs International Ltd, and as an academic economist at the London School of Economics. He has over 25 years of quantitative modelling experience and runs a high calibre team of quantitative and qualitative research analysts...
    Fred
  • Those who buy stocks the day the S&P 500 enters a bear market...
    https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.marketwatch.com/amp/story/those-who-buy-stocks-the-day-after-the-s-p-500-enters-a-bear-market-have-made-an-average-of-22-7-in-12-months-11655224023
    Those who buy stocks the day the S&P 500 enters a bear market have made an average of 22% following year
    ***
    Good information, traders: Wall Street is holding a sale, providing shares at 20% off!
    You’re not ? That simply means you solely discuss the speak about being a contrarian investor, however don’t stroll the stroll. Now’s your likelihood to purchase when the blood is operating within the streets, as that well-known contrarian Nathan Rothschild as soon as stated.
    If you have been keen to purchase shares in the beginning of the yr, when the S&P 500
    SPX,
    -0.48%
    was 20% greater, why aren’t you much more keen now?
    To provide help to reside as much as your contrarian bona fides, I analyzed how you’ll have achieved if, in each bear market since World War II, you acquire shares on the day the S&P 500 closes beneath the 20% loss threshold. Sometimes that day got here close to the tip of the bear market, and in different circumstances the market continued falling earlier than finally turning up. But on common you’ll have achieved very properly.***
    Hello
    Few days ago ust10 yr usdollar, commodities at all time high, RSI >80s
    Imho maybe very close bottom
    Maybe good ideas to unload these and consider buying more equities dca slowly in
  • FOMC Statement, 6/15/22
    That means the FED rate will exceed 3.0 to 3.5% by year end. By the way, Canada is aiming to hike by 75 bps next week as US.
  • FOMC Statement, 6/15/22
    CME FedWatch is indicating 75-50-50-25 bps hikes for 2022. But as Powell said, nothing is for sure and things may change.
  • Crypto next cycle to start by Q4

    Some excellent commentary/analysis on the curent crypto shennanigans by BBG's Matt Levine:
    https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-06-15/crypto-debt-can-be-trouble
  • FOMC Statement, 6/15/22
    The fed fund rate was raised by +75 bps (+0.75%) to 1.50-1.75% range & more 50-75 bps increases are coming; the QT is continuing as previously announced. The interest paid on reserves held at the Fed are now 1.65%; the discount/primary rate is 1.75%. The labor market remains strong & inflation data have surprised to the upside. Fed's goals are positive real rates & taming consumer demand because many other factors are out of Fed's control (global commodity prices, Russia-Ukraine war, Covid-19 issues in China). Headline inflation is what the public & the Congress care about, but the core inflation is more meaningful for the Fed to adjust monetary policy. Changing inflation-expectations via forward guidance is working as intended but the Fed is not locked into its previous guidance (so, it isn't bothered by "misses") & looks at the incoming data (current retail sales & housing data, UM Sentiment, etc) & some of it came during the blackout week this time.
    https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/thread/158/fomc-statements-6-7-weeks?page=1&scrollTo=665
  • Move the Inflation Goal Post to +4.7% Avg - Yellen
    I may be “whistling in the graveyard.” But, when I see PRWCX (no matter who the manager) off 15+% YTD, it gives me hope the broader equity indexes are near half-way down to their maximum losses. Check ‘07-09. I think the fund’s around 50% of the way to its losses back than. Could be wrong. Maybe we’re looking at the 1930s again. But I don’t think so. On the other hand, I think inflation is here to stay. Probably OT - Just responding to Sven’s comment comment.
  • Move the Inflation Goal Post to +4.7% Avg - Yellen
    S&P500 is up 1.3% on Wednesday morning. Will see later what % the rate hike is. Many traders are leaning toward 75 bps.
    Wonder if the rate hike will improve the already bearish investor sentiment?
  • Can Home Prices and Interest Rates Soar at the Same Time? ---- Maybe Not......
    Is 7% coming soon?!.....
    The average rate on the popular 30-year fixed mortgage rose 10 basis points to 6.28% Tuesday, according to Mortgage News Daily.
    The rate was 5.55% one week ago.
    The drastic rate jump this week is the worst since the so-called taper tantrum in July 2013, when investors sent Treasury yields soaring after the Fed said it would slow down its purchases of the bonds.

    6.28%

    Also, a city by city chart showing mortgage payment increases since January 1:
    US mortgage payments are on the rise