Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. If you want to get involved, click one of these buttons!

Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Why is China ETF Up While Everyone Blames China?
    Barron's options guy Sears noted in the weekend issue the recent bounce in FXI and thought that investors were looking ahead for 2023. He recommended calls on FXI. May be this mentions also caused it to go up when the China and HK markets closed down (although not as much as they were last night) - the so-called Barron's effect (doesn't always work).
    https://www.barrons.com/articles/china-reignite-growth-limiting-risks-51669157037?mod=past_editions
  • Crypto investing coming to your 401(K) account
    And in current "crypto" news:
    Crypto lender BlockFi files for bankruptcy after FTX collapse-
    Chapter 11 bankruptcy filing as fall of FTX continues to reverberate across industry

    Following are excerpts from a current report in The Guardian:
    The crypto lender BlockFi has become the sector’s latest big operator to declare bankruptcy, as the fallout of the collapse of offshore cryptocurrency exchange FTX continues to spread.
    BlockFi, which operates in a similar fashion to a conventional bank, paying interest on savings and using customer deposits to fund lending, says it has $256.9m cash in hand. According to court documents, its creditors include FTX itself, to which it owes $275m, and the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), to which it owes $30m.
    In a statement announcing its Chapter 11 bankruptcy filing, BlockFi said: “This action follows the shocking events surrounding FTX and associated corporate entities and the difficult but necessary decision we made as a result to pause most activities on our platform.
    “Since the pause, our team has explored every strategic option and alternative available to us, and has remained laser-focused on our primary objective of doing the best we can for our clients.
    “These Chapter 11 cases will enable BlockFi to stabilise the business and provide BlockFi with the opportunity to consummate a reorganisation plan that maximises value for all stakeholders, including our valued clients.”
    The SEC levied a $100m fine on the company in February for violating securities laws, arguing that the investment products the company offered qualified as unregistered securities. The outstanding $30m debt is apparently the unpaid portion of that fine.
    BlockFi has already stumbled close to bankruptcy once already this year, in the wake of spring’s crypto crash.
    After chief executive Zac Prince said the company needed an injection of capital to stave off a liquidity crisis, it signed a deal with none other than FTX, which gave the company access to $400m in loans. The price of the deal was an option from FTX to buy the lender for about $240m, a sharp decline from a peak valuation of $3bn.
    That option was never exercised, and the collapse of the cryptocurrency exchange sparked a bank run at BlockFi, seen by customers as dangerously entangled with Sam Bankman-Fried’s company, that proved terminal. Without the ability to draw on the credit line, nor access its own funds stored on the FTX platform, BlockFi was forced to file for Chapter 11 bankruptcy.
  • Alexa, how did Amazon’s voice assistant rack up a $10bn loss?
    The inclusion of privacy and security issues in this thread warrants notice of this:
    Meta fined €265m over data protection breach that hit more than 500m users-
    Facebook, Instagram and WhatsApp have been fined nearly €1bn by EU since September 2021

    Following are edited excerpts from this report in The Guardian:
    Facebook’s owner (aka: Mark Zuckerberg) has been fined €265m by the Irish data watchdog after a breach that resulted in the details of more than 500 million users being published online.
    The Data Protection Commission (DPC) said Meta had infringed the EU’s data protection laws after details of Facebook users from around the world were scraped from public profiles in 2018 and 2019.
    The data appeared on a hacking website last year, prompting an investigation by the DPC, which is responsible for regulating Meta across the EU. The watchdog said a “significant” number of the users were from the EU.
    In addition to the fine, it “imposed a reprimand and an order” requiring Meta to “bring its processing into compliance by taking a range of specified remedial actions within a particular timeframe”.
    In a statement Meta said: “We made changes to our systems during the time in question, including removing the ability to scrape our features in this way using phone numbers. Unauthorised data scraping is unacceptable and against our rules.”
    The punishment brings the total amount of fines imposed on Meta by the DPC to nearly €1bn since September last year. In September Meta was fined €405m for letting teenagers set up Instagram accounts that publicly displayed their phone numbers and email addresses, while in March the watchdog fined Meta €17m for further GDPR breaches and in September last year it fined Meta’s WhatsApp €225m over “severe” and “serious” infringements of GDPR.
    However, one legal expert questioned whether strong enforcement of the EU’s General Data Protection Regulation would have the deterrent effect that it intended.
    “By any measure, these are significant fines,” said David Hackett, head of data protection in the Ireland office of law firm Addleshaw Goddard. “GDPR envisaged the imposition of such fines in part to serve as a deterrent to other companies which might consider breaching the law. We are likely to see increased debate about whether such fines actually influence corporate behaviour or if some companies simply see them as an added cost of doing business.
    The DPC regulates Apple, Google, TikTok and other technology platforms owing to the location of their EU headquarters in Ireland. It currently has 40 inquiries open into such companies, including 13 involving Meta.
    Note: Textual emphasis was added
  • Crypto investing coming to your 401(K) account
    Congressional bills regarding cryptocurrency (S. 4760 / H.R. 8730) have at most a tangential relation to DOL's regulation of 401(k) plan investments.
    Here's a brief negative critique summarizing the bill(s): https://ourfinancialsecurity.org/2022/09/news-release-cftc-should-have-narrow-role-in-crypto-to-preserve-sec-primacy/
    For more specifics, that links to a letter detailing several concerns:
    https://ourfinancialsecurity.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/AFR-Letter-Stabenow-Bill.pdf
    And a similar letter with some different items described:
    https://www.nasaa.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/NASAA-Letter-to-Committee-Leadership-Regarding-the-DCCPA-9-9-22-F.pdf
    Finally, a set of slides on the state of cryptocurrency regulation in the United States, "Brought to you by the Connecticut Department of Banking and the Securities Advisory Council to the Banking Commissioner", dated November 15, 2022.
    Among other things, it explains how cryptocurrencies can be viewed as securities by the SEC, as a commodity interest by the CFTC.
    https://www.daypitney.com/wp-content/uploads/2022-11-15-Unmasking-Crypto-Presentation-Final.pdf
    The Congressional bills were referred to the House Committee on Agriculture and to the Senate Committee on Agriculture, Nutrition and Forestry. I suppose given the risks involved, it makes a kind of warped sense to lump crypto in with pork belly futures :-)
    As to DOL fiduciary duty, my feeling is that it doesn't go far enough. The standard is what a prudent investor would do, not what each individual employee would do.
    While I would personally be delighted with a brokerage window, I do not think that it serves a typical employee well. Studies have shown that employees when faced with a myriad of options (even without a window), are paralyzed. They may dump everything into cash, or divide their money evenly among all options, or not even participate. More choice is not necessarily better choice.
    See, e.g.
    https://www.marketplace.org/2022/01/11/default-options-are-popular-in-financial-decision-making-but-are-they-effective/
    https://www.wsj.com/articles/are-too-many-choices-costing-401-k-holders-1454900917
  • Crypto investing coming to your 401(K) account
    With all due respect to Elizabeth Warren, Dick Durbin and Tina Smith, IMHO cryptocurrency is no more unsuitable today for employer-sponsored plans than it was a month ago. Their current letter is more or less a followup to a similar but more extensive letter sent by Senators Warren and Smith in May. That in turn came after DOL issued guidance on cryptocurrency in 401(k) plans in March, emphasizing its risks.
    Fidelity isn’t the first company to give 401(k) participants access to cryptocurrency assets. Another industry provider, ForUsAll Inc., has linked workers with cryptocurrency exchanges through brokerage windows for several years. Fidelity takes a different approach with its Digital Asset Accounts product, which doesn’t rely on outside exchanges or brokerage windows.
    Employee Benefit Plan Review, October 2022, Volume 76, Number 8, pages 16-19. CCH Incorporated.
    (Published before FTX's collapse)
    The genie has been out of the bottle since brokerage windows were allowed. Fidelity just provided another route to the same investments. That's not to say that plan sponsors have no responsibility for how those windows are used. The DOL guidance hints at that. Quoting again from CCH:
    DOL provides a clear and definite warning to plan fiduciaries:
    The plan fiduciaries responsible for overseeing such investment options or allowing such investments through brokerage windows should expect to be questioned about how they can square their actions with their duties of prudence and loyalty in light of the risks described above.
    While the focus of this guidance is on 401(k) plans, the DOL’s warnings also extend to plans and plan fiduciaries responsible for allowing cryptocurrency investments through self-directed brokerage windows.
    One way of addressing this is to set limits. As stated in the OP, Fidelity sets a 20% limit. So the 20% Bitcoin decline in value lamented in the senators' letter would have resulted in a 4% or less decline in a participant's plan value. Significant but not catastrophic. And ForUSAll sets an even tighter limit, just 5%.
    Finally, note that while some senators are advocating caution, others welcome wild west investing in retirement accounts.
    Update: A Partisan Divide

    The Department of Labor's cryptocurrency guidance has provoked contrasting responses on Capital [sic] Hill.

    On May 5, Sen. Tommy Tuberville, R-Ala. introduced legislation that would prohibit the DOL from limiting the kinds of products workplace retirement savers can invest in through self-directed brokerage accounts.
    A day earlier, Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., criticized Fidelity Investments for its decision to launch a new 401(k) cryptocurrency product, in a May 4 letter to Fidelity CEO Abigail Johnson.
    https://www.shrm.org/resourcesandtools/hr-topics/benefits/pages/dol-guidance-could-crimp-401k-brokerage-windows.aspx (Limit 3 free articles per month)
  • 2022 year-end capital gains distribution estimates (Vanguard's Final estimated year-end posted)
    Thanks, @TheShadow. After making a big distribution in 2021, BCSIX will do the same this year. According to M* the fund holds 45% of its $3.6 billion in its top 10 positions. Concentration is great until it isn’t. Hard to blame shareholders for fleeing when they see it’s down 42% in the past year and that they’ll have to pay the IRS for the privilege of sticking around.
  • Bruce Fund. BRUFX: holding lotsa cash
    I agree with yogi that FCNTX and PRWCX isn't an apples to apples compare.
    For investment period commencing June 1, 2006 to present day an investment of 10K would be valued at 46K for Danoff and 42K for Giroux. But the ride was a lot more turbulent with Danoff (as can be expected for an all equity fund)
    SD for Danoff is 15.62 vs. 11.64 for Giroux, max DD at -46 vs. -36 and worst year at -37 vs. -27.
    While Danoff beat Giroux since Giroux took charge of PRWCX Giroux has beaten most all equity funds with a lower risk.
  • Bruce Fund. BRUFX: holding lotsa cash
    Yep, Berkowitz the manager of FAIRX. He still holds a 75% position in JOE which is astounding.
  • Bruce Fund. BRUFX: holding lotsa cash
    And elsewhere here, there's a thread regarding Amazon and Alexa. An unexpected FAIL, there. Giroux put a bunch of money into Amazon, and then for the first time, the stock fell, in line with losses, rather than profits. Oops. AMZN is now 2.61% of the equity stake in PRWCX. That's a 31% downshift from the prior portfolio report obtained by Morningstar. Over the past one year, AMZN is down -48%. Ouch.
    PRWCX holds one-third of its stocks in its top 10. THERE's a hefty bet. AMZN is #5 in size there.
  • Bruce Fund. BRUFX: holding lotsa cash
    Giroux does openly assert that his strategy is to maximize profit while allowing for only about 2/3 of the average market volatility, generally. I won't get into an analysis of the numbers you have both reported. I guess wifey and I hold the best of both worlds, with these two. BRUFX and PRWCX. But it's foolish under our current circumstances to add to them with new money. Not enough reportable income. If we did that, they would be non-deductible contributions, while also being tax-free upon withdrawal. I'm already withdrawing money annually from the IRA, and according to the ridiculously arcane and convoluted IRS formula, the tax-free, non-deductible portion is just a fraction of the full amount of my customary annual withdrawal. My tax guy understands it.
    "Hello, IRS? I'm holding $5,000 in my T-IRA which is non-taxable and non-deductible from several years ago, before realizing that it is counter-productive to deposit $$$ into a T-IRA when there's no deduction to be had.
    Why don't I just withdraw that $5000 in one lump, and be done with it?"
    IRS: "Sorry. No. THAT would make TOO MUCH SENSE! We can't have THAT!"
  • Bruce Fund. BRUFX: holding lotsa cash
    Not to malign BRUFX, but I think you own the better fund with PRWCX. I calculate 1,3,5,7,10 year returns as of last friday to be all higher for PRWCX than BRUFX, and with less volatility.
  • Bruce Fund. BRUFX: holding lotsa cash
    BRUFX is a great fund. Rolling returns for 3,5,7,10,15 year periods are higher than the much beloved PRWCX (which I own at present)
  • Bruce Fund. BRUFX: holding lotsa cash
    I have not owned BRUFX for a while, either; however, I do not recall such a high cash allocation, low bond stake, and such a big commitment to utilities (32%). The latter might be bond substitutes.
    That makes sense! Yes! ...And for what it might be worth, it's back to a 5-star and Gold rating at Morningstar. I stopped worrying about those stars and medalist decorations at Morningstar quite a while ago. I do steer clear if I see them rating a fund NEGATIVELY.
  • BONDS, HIATUS ..... March 24, 2023
    Bond bottom, Oct. 25 ??? One calendar month, 23 trading days. Just the numbers. Global central bankers remain in group think mode hoping they can fix what, in many cases, could partially fix itself; via the consumer. Let us hope that central bank egos don't stand in the path of a positive economic direction, eventually.
    Eight random bond etf's returns for the past month, from the recent bottom (?).
    CHART
    NOTE: I've kept the prior dated reports in the beginning of this thread; and have added YTD to this data.
    All listed etf's below have nice price gains for this past week, except the 'bear/short' etf.
    For the WEEK/YTD, NAV price changes, November 21- November 25, 2022
    --- AGG = +1.07% / -12.5% (I-Shares Core bond etf) widely used bond benchmark, (AAA-BBB holdings)
    --- MINT = +.14% / -1.6% (PIMCO Enhanced short maturity, AAA-BBB rated)
    --- SHY = +.15% / -4.3% (UST 1-3 yr bills)
    --- IEI = +.46% / -9.5% (UST 3-7 yr notes/bonds)
    --- IEF = +1.02% / -14.3% (UST 7-10 yr bonds)
    --- TIP = +1.3% / -11.8% (UST Tips, 3-10 yrs duration, some 20+ yr duration)
    --- STPZ = +.58% / -4.65% (UST, short duration TIPs bonds, PIMCO)
    --- LTPZ = +4.35% / -29.9% (UST, long duration TIPs bonds, PIMCO)
    --- TLT = +3.3% / -29.3% (I shares 20+ Yr UST Bond
    --- EDV = +4.65% / -36.8% (UST Vanguard extended duration bonds)
    --- ZROZ = +5.1% / -38.5% (UST., AAA, long duration zero coupon bonds, PIMCO
    --- TBT = -6.2% / +83% (ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (about 23 holdings)
    --- TMF = +9.8% / -69% (Direxion Daily 20+ Yr Trsy Bull 3X ETF (about a 3x version of EDV etf)
    --- BAGIX = +1.08% / -13.4% (active managed, plain vanilla, high quality bond fund)
    *** Other, for reference:
    --- HYG = +1.05% / -10.8% (high yield bonds, proxy ETF)
    --- LQD = +1.85% / -16.6% (corp. bonds, various quality)
    --- FZDXX = 3.81% yield (7 day), Fidelity Premium MMKT fund
    *** FZDXX yield was .11%, April,2022. The rate of rise in the yield is slowing for this past week, versus the past six months.
    Remain curious,
    Catch
  • Bruce Fund. BRUFX: holding lotsa cash
    Just a heads-up. My wife's rollover T-IRA is all in BRUFX. We are not unhappy. But I was a bit surprised to see them sitting on so much cash. Maybe they are smarter than me. THAT'S a sure bet. Perhaps markets ARE indeed headed for another leg downward in '23. Only 5+ percent of portfolio is in bonds right now.
    https://www.morningstar.com/funds/xnas/brufx/portfolio
  • Alexa, how did Amazon’s voice assistant rack up a $10bn loss?
    The tech giant’s flawed business model for its popular smart devices has cost the company a fortune and thousands of jobs
    A commentary by John Naughton, in The Guardian
    Following are edited excerpts from that commentary:
    Intrigued by an Ars Technica post about Amazon’s Alexa that suggested all was not well in the tech company’s division that looks after its smart home devices, I went rooting in a drawer where the Echo Dot I bought years ago had been gathering dust. Having found it, and set it up to join the upgraded wifi network that hadn’t existed when I first got it, I asked it a question: “Alexa, why are you such a loss-maker?” To which she calmly replied: “This might answer your question: mustard gas, also known as Lost, is manufactured by the United States.” At which point, I solemnly thanked her, pulled the power cable and returned her to the drawer, where she will continue to gather dust until I can think of an ecologically responsible way of recycling her.
    Initially, it looked like a shrewd beachhead for the invasion of our homes. Alexa became a kind of hub for other IoT (internet of things) gizmos – lights, thermostats, heaters, doorbells and so on. Clearly, other tech giants also thought it was significant – Apple, Google and Facebook raced to get their home hubs over our thresholds. And people seemed to like using Alexa: children loved conning her into saying stupid things, while their elders used her to set timers for cooking, compiling shopping lists, playing music, requesting definitions of words or information from Wikipedia and so on. But since it was of no real use to me, I switched it off and put it away, assuming that Amazon’s big bet had really paid off.
    How wrong can you be? “Amazon Alexa is a ‘colossal failure’,” ran Ars Technica’s headline, “on pace to lose $10bn this year.” It was picking up on a long piece by Business Insider reporting that during the first quarter of this year Amazon’s worldwide digital unit, which includes everything from the Echo smart speakers and Alexa voice technology to the Prime Video streaming service, had an operating loss of more than $3bn, the “vast majority” of which was accounted for by Alexa and related devices and was the largest among all of Amazon’s business units.
    So what went wrong? Basically, the business model underpinning Alexa failed to deliver. The company thought that the Echo device (which apparently was sold at cost) would lead people to buy more stuff on Amazon. And when more than 5m of the devices were sold in its first two years, that must have looked like a plausible idea, especially when it transpired Alexa was getting a billion interactions a week!
    Sadly, it seems that most of those “conversations” with the device were rather like mine had been: trivial and inconsequential. And, as time went on, the “smart assistants” offered by the other tech giants muscled in on the market. Alexa, with 71.6 million users, now occupies third place but even the thought that the other two are also losing money on their gizmos will not provide much consolation for the Alexa team as its unit is slimmed down.
    Amazon, which went on a hiring spree during the pandemic, is now, like all the big tech outfits, shedding jobs on an industrial scale; beginning this month, it plans to lay off 10,000 workers, quite a few of whom will probably be in its hardware division. So maybe the industry is about to discover that invasions – of homes as well as countries – don’t always work out as well as you hoped.
  • "Analysis" or sales pitch? PSTL
    Improvements may be depreciated but land is never depreciated. Regardless of the business. A farmer may depreciate his silo but not his acreage. I imagine this distinction is for just the reason you describe - land tends to increase in value over time. Though improvements either require maintenance or deteriorate.
    From the IRS's FAQ on depreciation:
    Can I depreciate the cost of land?
    Land can never be depreciated. Since land cannot be depreciated, you need to allocate the original purchase price between land and building. You can use the property tax assessor's values to compute a ratio of the value of the land to the building.
    Example:
    Ryan bought an office building for $100,000. The property tax statement shows:
    Improvements $60,000 75%
    Land                $20,000 25%
    Total Value      $80,000 100%
    Multiply the purchase price ($100,000) by 25% to get a land value of $25,000. You can depreciate your $75,000 basis in the building using the mid-month MACRS tables
    https://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-regs/depreciation_faqs_v2.pdf
  • "Analysis" or sales pitch? PSTL
    Funds from operation (FFO) is a measure of cash flow that is calculated simply by taking net income and "backing out" depreciation and amortization. That intuitively makes sense in terms of cash, since depreciation is a bookkeeping figure, not "real" cash that is flowing out of a business' bank account.
    Many types of businesses present a non-GAAP (and non-standardized) EBITDA figure to give a "truer" (read: more favorable) picture of income. This is net income after backing out depreciation, amortization, interest and taxes.
    Even though EBITDA is focused on income and FFO is focused on cash flow, they look very similar. That's especially true in real estate where depreciation and amortization can constitute the vast majority of tweaks. So if it helps, think of FFO as income without accounting "tricks".
    You can see how massive an impact depreciation and amortization have. For PSTL in the third quarter:
    net income =     $1,150K
    deprec,amort = $4,616K
    FFO =               $5,766K
    https://investor.postalrealtytrust.com/Investors/news/news-details/2022/Postal-Realty-Trust-Inc.-Reports-Third-Quarter-2022-Results/default.aspx
    M* says that free cash flow over trailing twelve months was 6.88x net income. (That's a bit higher than the 5x for the third quarter.) Take the 94% payout based on cash flow and multiply by 6.88, and you get roughly the 653.57% payout ratio that M* reports. The small difference is likely due to rounding (95% x 6.88 = 653.6).
    Given this huge difference between net income and payouts, one might think that the divs can't all be income. And one would be right. Over the past year, about a third of the divs represented return of capital (lowering your cost basis). I'm not going to venture a guess as to how one comes up with that 1/3 figure; I'm just reporting it from the PSTL filings:
    https://s29.q4cdn.com/654642337/files/doc_downloads/dividend-tax-information/Dividend-Tax-Treatment-of-2021.pdf
    https://s29.q4cdn.com/654642337/files/doc_downloads/dividend-tax-information/Form-8937-2021.pdf (see line 15 for adjustment to cost basis)
    https://www.hrblock.com/tax-center/income/investments/nondividend-distributions/
  • Latest memo from Howard Marks.
    Thanks for that clarification @stayCalm. Can you determine if the 11/15 distribution of 98 cents is the last one for 2022? It seems that the fund is not on a quarterly distribution schedule.