Thanks YBB Yes, a fine group of folks here; who help, share, ask questions and provide answers that makes all of us better. This, of course; includes Mr. Snowball and behind the scenes staff, as well as those who provide the monthly commentaries, and Charles for his selfless efforts with the data and those who continue to provide monetary support..
I will place this short write that may or may not be attributed (disputed) to Kurt Vonnegut, but good for life in general, and investing for this forum; keep learning and be happy. All of your skills and experiences may be applied to investing.
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Kurt Vonnegut wrote: "When I was 15, I spent a month working on an archaeological dig. I was talking to one of the archaeologists one day during our lunch break and he asked those kinds of “getting to know you” questions you ask young people: Do you play sports? What’s your favorite subject? And I told him, no I don’t play any sports. I do theater, I’m in choir, I play the violin and piano, I used to take art classes.
And he went WOW. That’s amazing! And I said, “Oh no, but I’m not any good at ANY of them.”
And he said something then that I will never forget and which absolutely blew my mind because no one had ever said anything like it to me before: “I don’t think being good at things is the point of doing them. I think you’ve got all these wonderful experiences with different skills, and that all teaches you things and makes you an interesting person, no matter how well you do them.”
And that honestly changed my life. Because I went from a failure, someone who hadn’t been talented enough at anything to excel, to someone who did things because I enjoyed them. I had been raised in such an achievement-oriented environment, so inundated with the myth of Talent, that I thought it was only worth doing things if you could “Win” at them."
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POINT: Lots of things are worth doing because they bring you joy, and for no other reason. Do them, enjoy them, be fulfilled. Do things that make you happy!
U S TREASURY BILL DUE 04/20/23 DTD 04/21/22 Thanks. Your explanation on liquidity makes perfect sense.
Is there good reasons to go longer duration treasury beyond 52 weeks, in light of the current yield curve?
AAII Sentiment Survey, 11/23/22 2022 has been an unusual year for the AAII Sentiment, a contrary indicator. The low-high ranges YTD are:
Bullish: 15.84% (4/14/22) to 33.33% (8/18/22)
Bearish: 27.54% (3/31/22) to 60.87% (9/22/22)
Bull-Bear Spread: -43.1% (9/22/22) to +4.3% (3/31/22)
The current Sentiment reading is fairly negative, but not as bad as it was in September (or, in April or June). However, Charles Rotblut of AAII sees the current situation much more optimistically (e.g. "new 2022 high for bullish sentiment" last week; he hasn't tweeted yet about today's readings).
There has been a rush into guaranteed products* (Treasuries, CDs, stable-value/SV, m-mkt funds, etc) but that may be justified for now. My rule of thumb is to favor guaranteed products so long as their guaranteed rates well exceed the 30-day SEC yield of competing choices. This will change eventually.
*Principal and interest are guaranteed currently or at maturity.
Crypto investing coming to your 401(K) account Due to Fido's push for cryptos in general, and for 401k/403b in particular, I also started the "Crypto Crash" thread at the Fido Investment Community, a closed, by-invitation group for Fido account holders (links from there cannot be posted elsewhere). I kept that thread current for a while, but then just referred to the (open) MFO "Crypto Crash".
https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/60259/crypto-crash-11-8-22#latest
Crypto investing coming to your 401(K) account Three US Senators have urged Fidelity to stop its 401(k) sponsor partners from offering bitcoin exposure — likening crypto investing to “catching lightning in a bottle.”
In a Monday letter penned to Fidelity CEO Abigail Johnson, Democrat Senators Elizabeth Warren, Dick Durbin and Tina Smith argue that crypto markets have become riskier following FTX’s sudden collapse, making bitcoin unsuitable for retirement plans.
Boston-based Fidelity began allowing employees to put as much as 20% of their retirement savings into bitcoin exposure this fall.
The crypto industry considered the move a strong sign of shifting institutional sentiment toward the 12 year old asset class, although bitcoin has shed some 60% of its value since Fidelity flagged the 401(k) move in late April.
Fidelity, which overall boasts some $9.6 trillion in assets under administration, is the largest individual retirement plan (IRA) provider in the US — supporting more than 35 million IRA, 401(k) and 403(b) retirement accounts. As of 2020, FIdelity controlled more than a third of the retirement fund market in the US, maintaining $2.4 trillion in 401(k) assets.
https://blockworks.co/news/senators-fidelity-stop-offering-bitcoin-401ksFor full disclosure, Fidelity was my past 401(k) plan administrator. The choices were solid and their service, phone or online, were second to none. Outside of that, they also have been our main brokerage for many years.
In emerging markets, the bulls are back again
BONDS, HIATUS ..... March 24, 2023 Observations. This does not necessarily indicate a trend of 3 or 6 months or longer; for longer duration bonds, but what some traders 'think' may be coming down the road for long duration bond rates.
A rotation of directions took place one month ago, October 24. This is still holding, one month later.
TMF (lower long rates) has gained 3
5% since October 24 pricing (using current price at 2pm, EST, November 23.
TBT vs TMF chart--- TBT = (ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (about 23 holdings)
--- TMF = (Direxion Daily 20+ Yr Trsy Bull 3X ETF (about a 3x version of EDV etf)
Comments and insights most welcomed.
Catch
In emerging markets, the bulls are back again Try this for the text:
https://fidelity.com/news/article/top-news/202211230959RTRSNEWSCOMBINED_KBN2SD11Z-OUSBS_1?print=trueBe sure that you consider the
total return of emerging market debts, not just the yields alone. The EM bond prices get crushed as their yields rise. A minus 20% down for this year will take more than one year to fully recover. I learned my lesson in 2008 and it took over 4-
5 years to recover. Talking about opportunity cost when the market came back strongly after 2008 when you are still holding 80 cents on a dollar of investment.
Several Fidelity Disruptive ETFs in registration
11 years of jail time for Ms. Holmes As a retired retail pharmacist as of October 2022, I was witness to the accurate testimony of the previous commenter and physician sma3. Perhaps I can address the challenges confronting the second stop after your doctor or mid-level practitioner visit--your pharmacy.
Briefly, in the early part of the 2000's, there was an acute shortage of pharmacists and salaries were escalating. In response, with the encouragement of rapidly expanding retail pharmacies and the prospect of a high value (both to the student and institution) professional curriculum, the number of pharmacy schools doubled. As these newer schools starting pumping out new graduates in the last decade and simultaneously retail pharmacy saturation in many markets reduced new construction, very quickly equilibrium then a surplus of pharmacists emerged into the latter part of the last decade.
Of course, the major chain employers then found themselves in a favorable supply/demand status. Starting salaries fell markedly as thousands of particularly new graduates with six-figure loan debts competed for a much lower level of job openings. Prospective students began to contemplate the deteriorating cost/benefit of a pharmacy degree and chose another--enrollments began to plunge 5-10% (or more) annually.
Then--the pandemic hit. Immunization service demand skyrocketed and in some areas the diminishing supply of new pharmacists could not fully compensate. Across the nation, most acutely in rural areas, this situation is not improving with companies being forced to offer five figure bonuses to fill positions. It is quite possible you are witnessing this as many pharmacies have been forced to limit hours and/or be closed on weekends unexpectedly due to lack of staff.
Of course, much of the detail sma3 shared (reimbursements, government edicts, patient counts, excessive EMR bureaucracy, high turnover of medical professionals) also contribute at the pharmacy level. All combined, what has evolved are common long wait times for making appointments, tests, and procedures, and the timely readiness and availability of your prescription. Please understand--this frustration is mutual.
11 years of jail time for Ms. Holmes One final comment.
I was not trained in "preventative medicine" but I practiced holistic medicine as I tried to help patients make decisions that were right for them as people and not tell them what to do. I would document for them the expected results of what they wanted to do, if we agreed to disagree.
I think the jury is out on "preventative medicine" at least if it means with different training health care professionals could correct people's bad habits. I had little luck trying to get people to stop smoking eating not exercising etc. I knew all the correct approaches from the literature and seminars etc, but the data says such interventions have a success rate of about 10%.
I might be different with different TV programs, Social Media, advertisements, but if you can't convince 35% of the population to be fully vaccinated against a potentially fatal pandemic disease, good luck with smoking cessation or obesity
