Peter Navarro is 75 years old. Maybe his day in the light of genius is fading and and his day in the cognitive scaffolding of his brain is emerging in an inflexible, narrow, misguided caricature of his former, more broader, genius.

New position started in CMCSA @ 31.50 ... down 8.25% premarket on earnings, paying a now-decent and covered yield for an information infrastructure company.

AAII Sentiment Survey, 4/23/25
BEARISH remained the top sentiment (55.6%, very high) & bullish became the bottom sentiment (21.9%, very low); neutral became the middle sentiment (22.5%, very low); Bull-Bear Spread was -33.7%* (very low). Investor concerns: Tariffs, jobs, inflation, recession, Fed, budget, debt, dollar, geopolitical, Russia-Ukraine (165+ weeks), Israel-Hamas (67+4 weeks). For the Survey week (Th-Wed), stocks mixed (growth up, cyclicals down), bonds down, oil down, gold down, dollar up. NYSE %Above 50-dMA 25.43% (oversold). President Trump & Treasury Secretary Bessent tried to calm the markets. #AAII #Sentiment #Markets
Sentiments are CONTRARIAN indicators.
*Negative since 2/5/25.
https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/post/1960/thread

Hurricane season is just around the corner.
Not to worry. Remember Trump saying that "If we stop testing right now, we'd have very few cases [of Covid], if any"? Works the same way with hurricanes. Cut NOAA funding, we'll stop tracking them, and so there will be very few hurricanes.
https://www.voanews.com/a/covid-19-pandemic_trump-if-we-stop-testing-wed-have-fewer-cases/6191165.html
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ (NOAA National Hurricane Center)

Who cares if Trump can do 50, 60 or 75 trade deals in 90 days, the elephant in the room is still China.
There are no negotiations going on. China is giving Trump the silent treatment. Trump blinked saying that China's tariffs will "come down substantially". They seem to be holding the winning hand.
I don't think our economy is strong enough to ditch China and the Chinese know it. Currently, container bookings from China to the West Coast are down 60%. How will the American consumer react to the empty shelves in the big box stores this summer?
China also holds a number of strategic tools for retaliation against the U.S. For example, it dominates the global rare earth supply chain – critical to military and high-tech industries – supplying roughly 72% of U.S. rare earth imports. China is also the second-largest foreign holder of U.S. Treasury debt, following Japan. Etc.,etc.
In this conflict, China seems to be holding the trump card.

Paul Krugman had this to say about tariff flip-flops today
Cronyism, Capitulation and Utter Chaos

$USD +0.94% from StockCharts.
https://stockcharts.com/sc3/ui/?s=$USD&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p52220085156

CEOs of Walmart, Target, and Home Depot met with and schooled the prez Monday on the impacts of his tariff madness. Then on Tuesday he "turned the dial down." Axios article.

AND, for today only (Wednesday, April 23); although you've probably already looked. Price gains in most bond related areas, with lower yields, as of 6pm, EST.
***Mike McKee, Bloomberg, noted this morning; that demand for the shorter duration UST's are slow and/or slowing. Both MINT and SHY below had price drops.
There has been a lot of mixed 'chatter' from the DC area this afternoon. Perhaps the food order was wrong and created a 'mood swing'.
--- AGG = +.25% (I-Shares Core bond), a benchmark, (AAA-BBB holdings)
--- MINT = -.02% (PIMCO Enhanced short maturity, AAA-BBB rated)
--- SHY = -.07% (UST 1-3 yr bills)
--- IEF = +.10% (UST 7-10 yr bonds)
--- TIP = +.29% (UST Tips, 3-10 yrs duration, some 20+ yr duration)
--- TLT = +.97% (I Shares 20+ Yr UST Bond
--- BAGIX = +.21% (Baird Aggregate Bond Fund (active managed, plain vanilla, high quality bond fund)
--- LQD = +.74% (I Shares IG, corp. bonds)
--- HYG = +.50% (I Shares High Yield bonds, proxy ETF)
U.S. Dollar Index Data indicated about a +1% through most of the day. No data is available at 6pm.

@larryB - or 5 min from now or tomorrow morning. I can't and don't trust this current market at all.
@Crash - Thanks. I was hoping that I wasn't the only one. Took some recently bought ABBV shares off the board near the open. Tempted to take some QQQ's out as well but I'd like to see what the tariff talks with China might produce first. I'm comfortable holding them for a bit longer.

Predicting FD's future post (sometime in August/Sept) **IF** SP500 goes up from here:
I went all in April 23rd. ;^)

As it turns out, not all T/A are created equal!
One particular T/A from BellCurveTrading has, even in these seemingly blindfolded times, successfully projected and predicted the recent, respective index tops AND the respective index % drawdowns that we've seen to date. Pretty remarkable!
Today on CNBC he stated these levels as the likely bottoms on the respective indexes:
S&P: 4,500-4,100
N100: 16,000-14,500
Dow: 35,000-33,000
So, after reading and watching way more stuff than I really wanted to about this, the prevailing thinking amongst the T/A's that I've reviewed is that it appears we are headed for a recession, the S&P will see 4,500, and could go as low as 4,100.
NOT saying this will happen - just putting out there the possible LOW target.
Take it or leave it. YMMV.

Comment: Boeing has lost 7% of its market value since the start of the year, with potentially a lot worse to follow. @FD1000 notwithstanding, this would seem to qualify as an investment consideration.

Finally, yes. After dozens of no.
But wait, why should most care about one stock? Watch the SP500 and let me know.
Boeing had problems for years now and the stock lost money in the last 3 years(https://schrts.co/iMhxbfFJ)
If you believe in all your posts. You should sell everything, or at least all your American stocks + bonds and be In MM until Trump is out of office.
It will be interesting to see your reaction when the SP500 breaks its previous high. I will be back :-)

Trump blinked again. See CNN below:
https://cnn.com/2025/04/22/business/trump-china-trade-war-reduction-hnk-intl/index.html
Depending who is the point person to negotiate with China, the outcome may vary considerably. Certain individuals such as Vance and Navarro should not be part of this team.

So much winning! At what point does Wharton revoke his 'business' degree since clearly he has no business sense other than attracting attention to himself as a shameless self-promoter and grifter...

Trump blinked again. See CNN below:
https://cnn.com/2025/04/22/business/trump-china-trade-war-reduction-hnk-intl/index.html
Depending who is the point person to negotiate with China, the outcome may vary considerably. Certain individuals such as Vance and Navarro should not be part of this team.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/white-house-insists-still-seal-184028885.html
White House insists it can still seal 75 trade deals in 90 days – but says it’s currently only in talks with 34 countries
And if you believe the 34 number, I got some choice land...
Also, let us not forget that executing a deal with a respective country does not mean they executed a good deal with them.
The count is one thing. The content, and market moving potential, are quite another.

Yup! And as I said, a 'deal' by this WH might just be an agreement to continue talking about doing a 'deal' down the road.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/white-house-insists-still-seal-184028885.html
White House insists it can still seal 75 trade deals in 90 days – but says it’s currently only in talks with 34 countries
And if you believe the 34 number, I got some choice land...
Also, let us not forget that executing a deal with a respective country does not mean they executed a good deal with them.
The count is one thing. The content, and market moving potential, are quite another.

Aside: Add a HUGE asterisk to all that given that the vast majority of the market action in the past three months has been self-induced, with wild market swings being caused daily by smoke, mirrors and WAG data.

And that is indeed the catch, isn't it? Without a market which is functioning 'normally', how accurate and effective can we expect TA (or anything) to

be?!

Agreed. But, T/A has been guiding our strategical moves since Election Day and the results have been rewarding. It feels like we are all flying blind to some extent at this point, but without T/A, our port would have taken on significant damage by now. With it, we are successfully treading water with our stock exposure, and reaping the rewards of a steady interest flow from our oversized 5-yr CD ladder. And, T/A has allowed us to develop a strategical plan while effectively removing emotions from our decisions. It ain't for everyone, but as I've stated here or on other threads, it's a worthy tool always, but IMO an essential one during market drops like these.
If I may add, the prevailing T/A notion that is burning a hole in my ear?
Expect rallies to be sharp and short-lived.
EDIT: S&P is currently taking a look see at the Buffoon BLINK Bounce high. Until we convincingly re-take it, the 50% Fibo retracement AND elevate to the 61.8% retracement level, it all likely adds up to an extended period of starts/stops and sideways action, with an early July (postponement) date looming.

So, there seems to be little interest in T/A here, but for anyone who is interested...
Here's a great historical look by MW at S&P drops in various prior periods, including those that did and did not end in recessions.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-how-far-the-stock-market-and-other-assets-have-gone-in-pricing-in-a-recession-according-to-deutsche-bank-baddff80?mod=home_lead
Bottom Line: We appear to NOT have yet priced in even a mild recession. Per the comments of a different T/A yesterday, a mild recession on the S&P would be priced in at ~4,500. (The S&P closed at 4,982.77 on Liberation Day.) Per my calc's, that estimate tracks well with the MW historical analysis.
FWIW, as I noted on other threads, I project we will be in a trading range for several months between the Lib Day low and the Buffoon BLINK Bounce high, with a strong likelihood that we will re-test the Lib Day low, and that we won't see Golden Crosses for 6-12 months.
Aside: Add a HUGE asterisk to all that given that the vast majority of the market action in the past three months has been self-induced, with wild market swings being caused daily by smoke, mirrors and WAG data.