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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Delayed CPI
    Thanks for the dose of reality. What have you got on the shrinkflation of Three Musketeers Bars and the disappearance of 50 cent burgers at local lunch counters? :-).
    1964 to 1974 isn't much time to a kid looking back from my vantage point I guess.
    The first thing that happened was the local Ben Franklin that sold them went of business. I just remember them becoming very hard to find anywhere. This was shortly after the time Franklins, Kennedy's, Mercurys, Roosevelt's and any other silver coins disappeared, along with silver certificates.
    Inflation scares the hell out of me.
  • Delayed CPI
    Memories fade. Perhaps the 25¢ comic books you are thinking about were the 80 page Giants, containing mostly reprints.
    Prices for regular editions, by year and publisher:
    image
  • Delayed CPI
    and the widely estimated +3.1% wasn't that bad.
    That's the attitude I remember from the mid 60's when comic books went from 12 cents to 25 cents in no time at all.
  • Delayed CPI
    I think BLS said that data collection stopped with DC shutdown on 10/1/25. BLS only recalled CPI data analysts who used the data on hand as of 10/1/25. These data analysts didn't try to complete any surveys in progress or collected any new data. IMO, the analyst team could have just stayed home and the widely estimated +3.1% wasn't that bad.
  • Delayed CPI
    Do you believe the numbers?
    No I don't, not the numbers in the Wolf Street piece. From that writing:
    Overall CPI rose by 0.31% (+3.8% annualized) in September from August. So not a benign inflation reading, but the second worst since January.
    The eight M/M CPI changes since January, in descending order since January are:
    0.444% (Feb), 0.341% (June), 0.311% (April), 0.287% (Aug), 0.254% (Sept), 0.225% (Mar), 0.209% (May), 0.151% (July).
    As it turns out, 0.310% is the M/M seasonally adjusted increase for Sept. But the writer does his best at directing you away from adjustments. A commenter says that BLS didn't release seasonally adjusted figures; the writer posts a response but doesn't correct this part of the comment. Perhaps ironically, the only M/M figures in the BLS press release are those that are seasonally adjusted.
    BLS press release
    My figures are calculated from monthly seasonally adjusted and unadjusted CPI values as posted by the BLS.
    As far as OER is concerned, it looks like the writer was confused about what it represents. He wrote:
    OER is a stand-in for the costs of homeownership. OER indirectly reflects the expenses of homeownership such as homeowners’ insurance, HOA fees, property taxes, and maintenance. It’s the only measure for those expenses in the CPI. It is based on what a large group of homeowners estimates their home would rent for, with the assumption that homeowners would try to recoup their cost increases by raising the rent.
    Suppose a homeowner, renting out their home, is netting $100/mo in profits (i.e. rent minus expenses), e.g. $2100 rent - $2000 expenses. Then if expenses go up 10%, the owner will only raise the rent enough to maintain that $100 profit. The owner will charge $2300 in rent (with $2200 in expenses). That is, the owner will increase the rent by $200, or by just 9% (of $2100), even though inflation is running at 10%. No wonder the writer thinks the OER is rigged. He's got the definition wrong.
    OER is, as he wrote "based on what ... [a] home would rent for". That's what the market will bear. If an owner's costs go up, they might eat some of those costs (as sellers are currently doing with tariffs), they might just try to recoup those costs (as the writer claimed), or they might try to pad their profits (if housing is in short supply and renters are expecting large hikes in rent). Whatever the rent increase is, it is only loosely coupled to costs (expenses).
    See Ken Perry's comment in the cited piece.
    Side note: my home is assessed for property taxes according to OER, not comparable sales. So this is of more than academic interest to me. While the method used to calculate my OER is different from the BLS's (my municipality looks at rents in comparable buildings), and the city calculates a figure per building, not an aggregate for the region, the idea is similar.
  • The REAL Economy: 'Empty shelves, higher prices’- Americans tell cost of Trump’s tariffs
    The irony continues. After years of panic-inducing narratives from unhinged Democrats, inflation is finally under control. Yet these same Democrats once denied the highest inflation in four decades during the Biden years—and now they’re attempting to spin the truth all over again.
    One-track mind. No, it's not just Dems who can see the higher prices. I'm no Dem, nor a Rep. The Orange Moron took office and soon instituted tariffs which upended any kind of trade normalcy. He claims lots of money coming into the Treasury. Who's paying it, in the end? The U.S. consumer. Businesses will eat the cost of the tariffs for only so long. Then it falls on everyone who needs to buy anything, literally.
    I do believe Joe was too free in throwing around covid-era money, to rescue the economy. It resulted in big-time inflation, which Yellen, Powell and the others claimed for too long, was "transitory." They got it wrong. I see no one here denying that. Go fight your own straw man where we're not bothered by it.
    Jump right in to 1:50 of this clip, if you care to taste a bit of Reality. And I never thought I'd be agreeing with Ronny Ray-guns about anything, but there it is:

  • The REAL Economy: 'Empty shelves, higher prices’- Americans tell cost of Trump’s tariffs
    Bought a towel hook for in the shower. $4.60 in Feb 2025 and 8 months later (now) $5.60. What inflation?
  • The REAL Economy: 'Empty shelves, higher prices’- Americans tell cost of Trump’s tariffs
    Real inflation numbers here. Call it "real" or "personal" or whatever you like. But, it is a like for like comparison from trump 2.0 day 1 to now.
    https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/heres-much-more-expensive-groceries-212033110.html
    A few examples:
    The price of a bag of coffee at TheEggWatch's local store was previously $7.99. Now, it's $9.99 a bag.
    On Jan. 19, 2025, TheEggWatch bought a pack of bacon for $7.49. Now, it's on sale for $8.99.
    Lean ground beef was $5.69 per pound in January. Now, it's $7.49 per pound.
  • Food stamps to run out: ‘the greatest hunger catastrophe since the Great Depression’
    Following are edited excerpts from a current report in The Guardian:
    Nearly 42 million people in danger as federal government shutdown continues and Snap funding to end 1 November

    While Republicans have sought to blame Democrats for the potential loss in benefits that people who make little money rely on, those who work in the food-insecurity space say that is misleading because Donald Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act already eliminated almost $187bn in funding for Snap through 2024, according to a congressional budget office estimate.
    Should funding run out at the end of the month, “we will have the greatest hunger catastrophe in America since the Great Depression, and I don’t say that as hyperbole”, said Joel Berg, CEO of Hunger Free America. Snap supports working families with low-paying jobs, low-income people aged 60 years and older and people with disabilities living on a fixed income, according to the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities.
    Snap participants generally must be at or below 130% of the federal poverty line. The average participant receives about $187 a month, the center reports. The Department of Agriculture recently sent a letter to regional Snap directors warning them that funding for Snap will run out at the end of the month and directing them to hold payments “until further notice”.
    More than 200 Democratic representatives have urged the USDA to use contingency funds to continue paying for Snap benefits. “There are clear steps the administration can and must take immediately to ensure that millions of families across the country can put food on their table in November,” a letter from the lawmakers to the USDA states. “SNAP benefits reach those in need this November would be a gross dereliction of your responsibilities to the American people. We appreciate your consideration of these requests.”
    Democrats have refused to pass a funding resolution to reopen the government because they want the legislation to include provisions to maintain healthcare subsidies under the Affordable Care Act, which the Trump administration cut and are set to expire at the end of the year.
    A USDA spokesperson blamed Democrats for the upcoming loss in Snap benefits: “We are approaching an inflection point for Senate Democrats,” the spokesperson told Fox News. “Continue to hold out for healthcare for illegals or reopen the government so mothers babies, and the most vulnerable among us can receive timely Wic [special supplemental nutrition program for women, infants, and children] and Snap allotments”.
    That claim is inaccurate¹:  undocumented immigrants are not eligible for Affordable Care Act subsidies.
    While his organization is focused on food insecurity, Berg supports the Democrats in fighting for healthcare subsidies because “this has grave repercussions for the people we represent”. “The population getting the healthcare subsidies may have a marginally higher income than people getting Snap, but there is certainly a lot of overlap,” Berg said.
    The profile of a Trump supporter:
    Brittany, a 38-year-old mother of three, lives in Greenup, Kentucky, and works 35 to 40 hours each week as a home health nurse. She also has received Snap benefits for a few years.
    “It’s not like I receive benefits and not work,” said Brittany, pushing back against the misconception that people who receive food stamps just sit on the couch. They allow her to get “most of the necessities throughout the month and then I just pay cash for the rest of them”, said Brittany, who did not want her last name used.
    If the Snap funding is cut off, she said, she would have to work on the weekends to make up the difference, which would mean she would have “hardly any time with my children”.
    Still, she supports Trump and blames Democrats for the shutdown because “they are not agreeing on anything that the Republicans offer”.

    ¹-   "inaccurate" = yet another outright Trump government lie.
  • Delayed CPI
    And the BS reports start. Do you believe the numbers? Get ready for all the numbers to start looking great no matter the facts.
    https://wolfstreet.com/2025/10/24/massive-outlier-in-owners-equivalent-of-rent-pushed-down-cpi-core-cpi-core-services-cpi-something-went-awry-at-the-bls/
  • Delayed CPI
    If the CPI is supposed to measure consumer goods pricing, it seems silly to strip out both food and energy. Who cares if food and energy are affected by commodity prices.
    SS COLA at 2.8%, but meanwhile Health insurance gaps up at double digits each year.
    Me thinks the US uses the wrong measuring stick.
    Here's a couple of double digit Medicare increases coming in 2026:
    AARP Article:
    Part B premium is projected to jump 11.6 percent, $21.50, to $206.50, the Medicare trustees reported in July. That would raise the Part B annual deductible by 12 percent, $31, to $288 in 2026.
    Article:
    https://aarp.org/medicare/medicare-part-b-premium-increase-2026/
  • Are PM prices near their peak?
    The gold miners ETF (GDX) has risen 117.6% YTD, 72.5% over the past year and 49% annually for 3 years
    The more subdued gold etf (GLD) is up 56.4% YTD, and has risen 51% over 1 year and 35% over 3 years.
    I can’t think of any other asset class (ie equities, energy, real estate) in my lifetime that held those types of short term gains without a significant correction somewhere down the road. Color me skeptical.
    Then again - maybe Haggard explained gold’s workings in his Rainbow Stew classic.
    * Figures from M* and do not include today’s gains.
  • U.S. national debt hits $38 trillion and Washington is ‘numb to our own dysfunction
    @sven. That’s exactly where our house is investing. We are not adding anything to US equity and working towards 50/50 or even more ex US than that. I keep going back to a two fund portfolio of Dodge and Global Stock Fund and Dodge and Cox Global Bond Fund,,,, mixed to taste haven’t pulled the trigger yet. We are very risk adverse and in preservation mode.
    owning: EWS (Singapore ETF)
    watching: DHT (marine shipping.)
  • U.S. national debt hits $38 trillion and Washington is ‘numb to our own dysfunction
    @sven. That’s exactly where our house is investing. We are not adding anything to US equity and working towards 50/50 or even more ex US than that. I keep going back to a two fund portfolio of Dodge and Global Stock Fund and Dodge and Cox Global Bond Fund,,,, mixed to taste haven’t pulled the trigger yet. We are very risk adverse and in preservation mode.
  • Westinghouse Nukes
    Article states that China's nuclear ambitions far outpacing the rest of the world.
    Comment section of the article is worth a read.
    Actually, the United States is the global leader in the construction of cheap, safe, powerful nuclear reactors. They just happen to all be owned and operated by the United States Navy (563 reactors over the past 75 years, at last count.) So if the Navy and China can build reactors, but US power companies can't, we should probably look at why that is.
    One obvious reason seems to be that neither the US Navy, nor the Chinese nuclear program needs to satisfy shareholders. Since they don't have to constantly cut costs to drive up stock price, they can instead focus on good design and safe operation. (I would have loved to see a Navy bean counter try to tell Admiral Rickover that there wasn't any money in the budget for something he wanted.)
    It's unrestrained capitalism that causes the problem, not the technology.
    https://nytimes.com/interactive/2025/10/22/climate/china-us-nuclear-energy-race.html
  • Are PM prices near their peak?
    The chart below is all over the social media - it shows that the VALUE of global central bank gold holdings (at current prices) recently exceeded that of the value of US Treasuries held.
    Lot of that rise is indeed attributed to a dramatic increase in the price of gold.
    But since 2022, central banks have been adding gold at about 1,000 tonnes/yr and the the total global gold holdings are around 36,000 tonnes. That +2.8% annual increase in gold tonnes by central banks cannot be overlooked either. Much of that increase is from central banks in Asia and EMs, not by developed countries or IMF.
    In trading, it's the incremental demand that drives prices.
    Another trend is that many countries are taking their gold home vs lot of gold they previously held in US and UK vaults. Moving large amounts of gold isn't easy as there are logistics and security challenges. Specific gravity of gold is 19.32, so it's 19.32x heavier than water.
    BTW, 2009 was a low point for gold in terms of both prices and the amount of gold held by central banks. Things are much different now.
    https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/golds-rise-central-bank-reserves-appears-unstoppable-2025-09-04/
    image
  • Are PM prices near their peak?
    Price of Gold:Oil relationship:
    Gold's price (up and down) moves like a wave impacting other commodities and their pricing. The linked article suggests that we are in for higher oil prices to come as a result of Gold's upward price move.
    learning_center/weekly_chart/inflection_point_for_crude_oil/?
  • Orange Tantrum-Child cuts off talks with Canada.
    Because they were making too much sense.
    https://www.cnbc.com/2025/10/24/trump-canada-trade-reagan.html
    Uncle Trumpy claims the Canadian-sponsored ad was "FAKE." The Reagan Foundation said the editing was unauthorized and misrepresented Ronny's message. No way.
  • U.S. national debt hits $38 trillion and Washington is ‘numb to our own dysfunction
    We can't bear the thought of moving again. When I was single and a professional student, it was much easier. If need be, the entire EU "is our oyster." (Or indeed, the UK.) Georgia and Albania will allow even tourists to remain for a whole year
    image