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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • TIPS FUNDS/ETF’s,,,,,,, has 2022 proven them losers?
    @davidmoran, glad to see you return. Yes, it has been a tough year. When both stocks and bonds go down at the same time, there are few safe options left other than cash. With CPI reported this morning at 9,1%, cash is losing figure buying power too.
  • Amazing / TROW down nearly 40% YTD

    TROW $110.77 this morning.
    My guess is TROW will be a lot higher in a few years - if you have a long term horizon. Asset managers tend to wax and wane with the overall equity market since their earnings are based largely on fees assessed on those invested assets. In a bear market, like now, those assets have declined in worth - reducing fees earned. As some investors flee, it worsens the effect. A double-whammy this time around is that fixed income assets under management (ie bonds) have declined in sync with equities. On reflection, I don’t think these (asset managers) are a good hedge inside an equity heavy portfolio (for obvious reason).
    I’ve been trying to think through the possible effect the bonanza double digit yield on one-year inflation adjusted treasury bonds has had. Certainly, $10,000 isn’t enough to rock the risk markets. But magnify that sum by X number of investors and it has to have had an effect. I’m wondering too how that has possibly impacted the short term muni market?
    I often check the YTD Numbers on BB and they’re beginning to look stark. Last evening:
    DOW -14%
    S&P - 19%
    NAS - 27%
    Suspect we haven’t enjoyed this much drama in the markets since ‘08.
    Wonder if it’s recent 40% drop in share price was a result of institutional selling verses “dumb money” investor’s selling.
    I doubt that. But let’s look at this a different way. I wonder if more individual investors have fled the markets or stopped contributing to their workplace plan? And whether TRP with its stellar history of serving those smaller investors has felt the impact more than some institutions that cater to higher net worth investors?
  • Large unplanned LT cap. gain 2022. Should a 1040-ES be filed; to pay taxes now?
    1986. Ten year income averaging is still available for qualified plan lump sum distributions to people born before 1936.
    Subtitle E: Miscellaneous Provisions - Repeals income averaging.
    https://www.congress.gov/bill/99th-congress/house-bill/3838
    https://www.rbcwm-usa.com/resources/file-687802.pdf
  • Wall Street Week
    The 07/01 and 07/08 episodes were posted to the Bloomberg WSW website on 07/12 and 07/11 respectively.
  • Large unplanned LT cap. gain 2022. Should a 1040-ES be filed; to pay taxes now?
    Generally, with lots of exceptions, the IRS expects you to pay your taxes equally in each quarter. That should be pretty obvious, because otherwise everyone would skip their first three estimates and just pay everything on the last estimate.
    For estimated tax purposes, the year is divided into four payment periods. Each period has a specific payment due date. If you don’t pay enough tax by the due date of each of the payment periods, you may be charged a penalty even if you are due a refund when you file your income tax return.
    IRS Pub 505, When to Pay Estimated Taxes
    As Yogi wrote, withholdings are usually considered evenly applied. But if it advantageous to do so (e.g. if your withholdings are front loaded), "you may choose to include your withholding according to the actual dates on which the amounts will be withheld." Pub 505, instructions for Worksheet 2-7, line 31.
    However you choose to allocate withholdings, so long as you've paid in (estimates plus withholdings) of at least 1/4 of the total as of the first estimate deadline, 1/2 as of the 2nd estimate deadline, and 3/4 as of the third, the IRS doesn't care if these payments are even or not. However, if you back load the payments, the IRS does care. Unless your income was correspondingly back loaded.
    If your income was, say $15K in the first quarter, $15K in the second quarter, $15K in the third quarter, and (due to YE divs and cap gains) $45K in the last quarter, the IRS will allow you to pay in roughly half of your taxes in the last quarter.
    See Form 2210 for how the underpayment penalty is calculated, quarter by quarter. It has a Schedule AI (annualized income) where you can document how much income you received in each quarter. Based on those amounts, it adjusts how much you should have paid each quarter.
    This is not the easiest form to fill out and requires fairly detailed bookkeeping (e.g. how much interest did your bank pay you in April and May?). Like Ben, I am not a professional, but I have tried this at home more than a couple of times. I found it something to avoid unless one's income is very uneven.
    Still, it provides an escape in case you wind up with a lot of unexpected income in a quarter.
  • Large unplanned LT cap. gain 2022. Should a 1040-ES be filed; to pay taxes now?
    I am fairly certain if you pay 100% of your 2021 total on time, there will be no penalty regardless of your 2022 income.
    If you take RMDs, you can pay all of your estimates taxes at the end of the year and have it count for entire year without penalty. Ask your brokerage to send the amount you determine is due to the IRS as a tax payment. Just make sure you file for the withdrawal with enough time for them to process it before 12/31/2022
    This also reduces the value of your IRA, making next years RMD lower.
  • Amazing / TROW down nearly 40% YTD
    Note that SCHW is much more than an asset-manager. It is broker-dealer, custodian, bank, asset-manager, etc. IMO, it is not a peer of TROW.
    Your thoughts on a closer peer...JPM?
    Adding JPM to the comparison:
    TROW , SCHW, JPM
  • Large unplanned LT cap. gain 2022. Should a 1040-ES be filed; to pay taxes now?
    Only taxes withheld (W-2, 1099, etc) are considered evenly applied and one can do over-withholding from paychecks, IRA or pension withdrawals, etc to avoid penalties related to other income. Otherwise, estimated taxes must be paid quarterly on other income to avoid penalty. IRS would calculate penalty if you don't calculate/include it.
  • Large unplanned LT cap. gain 2022. Should a 1040-ES be filed; to pay taxes now?
    Thanks @Ben
    Your summary is in line with our understanding, too. Although not of consequence; one may pay estimated taxes at any time; not having to follow quarterly ending dates, to the best of our understanding. But, your note about Jan. 15th, 2023 is important, too; as we will fully know the tax impact at that time.
  • Large unplanned LT cap. gain 2022. Should a 1040-ES be filed; to pay taxes now?
    I am not a tax professional. What follows is simply my experience: The fourth estimated tax payment for 2022 is due Jan 15th 2023. So you can be quite precise about what you owe by then. But... the IRS says they will not punish a tax payer who pays in estimated taxes 100% of the tax due the previous year. So, whether in quarterly payments as I do, or in a lump sum, as my dad preferred doing, so long as you send the IRS estimated taxes equal to 100% of what your tax bill was in 2021, you are likely to be in accord with the rules of the IRS. You can pay the balance when you file your 2022 return some time before 4/15/ 2022. I hope this is helpful (I also hope it's accurate!)
  • Large unplanned LT cap. gain 2022. Should a 1040-ES be filed; to pay taxes now?
    Stuff happens, eh? An unanticipated LT capital gains from a real estate transaction (land, not a primary residence) will take place in 2022. We're familiar and comfortable with processing the 2022 taxes at a federal and state level; for cost basis calculations and related. However, the dollar value will be significantly higher than normal and will have an impact upon our "taxes due"for 2022, versus a "normal" tax year. We do understand that line entry items for "traditional" taxable income, versus "LT capital gains" will have different impact(s) on the taxes owed; but will show up in the final math for taxes. A consideration is doing a "test" filing account in our 2021 tax program to obtain an idea of the Fed. tax burden.
    We've begun to sniff around the internet for clues of the best path forward to avoid "underpayment/penalties". The IRS site offers information regarding doing calculations (what if scenarios) as to paying taxes before filing time via the 1040-ES. Numerous other online sites offer pieces of information as to a proper plan to avoid underpayment/penalties. A fairly common suggestion is to pay "110%" of ones prior year Fed. taxes now. We read these as a "good faith" gesture towards the IRS, that we know we'll need to pay more in taxes for 2022, but we're not yet sure of how much more. The "gesture" being a way to avoid an underpayment penalty.
    Gross taxable income basis for the household arrives "only" from pensions, RMDs and SS. All other investment distributions are in IRAs; therefore, no taxable cap. gains are ever a part of our tax schedules. 2022 will be an non-normal tax filing year.
    So, continuing to "sniff" around for a best path forward; which may likely contain paying estimated taxes before year end, for the full 2022 tax year.
    Suggestions welcomed as to the best path forward, from your knowledge/experience.
    Thank you.
    Remain curious,
    Catch
  • Which is more important?
    The 30 day SEC yield is the best approximation of what a fund would return if it held its bonds to maturity/call. If one thinks of a portfolio consisting of a single bond, the SEC yield would be the YTW.
    For example, a 5 year bond selling at $104, with a 5% coupon would yield 4.1% to maturity. That's the same as buying a 5 year bond selling at par with a 4.1% coupon. From the point of view of your total return, no difference. These are even treated the same for tax purposes - the higher coupon is treated as return of principal, so that at the end of five years, cost basis of the first bond is $100.
    If what you care about is higher interest payments (5% vs. 4.1%) and the loss of 4% in principal (over the life of the bond) is not of concern, then look at the trailing or current yield. If what you care about is total return, including loss (or gain) in principal because bonds don't always trade at par, then look at SEC yield.
    There's another SEC yield figure, which is the 7 day yield. It is used for MMFs, and is effectively a current yield calculation. Which makes sense because MMF portfolios mature extremely quickly - current yield and YTW are very similar. With MMFs, looking at TTM is silly. Consider:
    VMFXX TTM (1 year) return was 0.17%, while its SEC (current) yield is 1.45%
    Vanguard MMFs
    Here's what Calamos says about 30 day SEC yield:
    30-day SEC yield was introduced in 1988 by the Securities and Exchange Commission to standardize the inputs mutual funds employ to calculate the statistic, allowing for a fairer comparison. The calculation uses the current yields to worst of all fixed income portfolio holdings to estimate how much interest the fund’s assets would have earned over the past 30-day period. After deducting the fund’s expenses and fees, the income earned is annualized and divided by the net asset value on the day of calculation. While standardized, the 30-day SEC yield is limited in that it is based on a static portfolio as of month-end. However, because 30-day SEC yield is based on the yield to worst methodology ..., it is more forward looking and can provide a more accurate indication of the income an investor might expect to receive.
    https://www.calamos.com/globalassets/media/documents/sales-ideas/yldcom-033031-0917o-c_final.pdf
  • Amazing / TROW down nearly 40% YTD
    Backtesting these two stocks (TROW vs SCHW) with PV, nod to SCHW:
    Market Correlation for SCHW = .62, yet had a Max DD of 81% (between 2000- 2003)
    TROW vs SCHW
  • M* screwing everything up again
    No problem on the M* investor site downloading VWELX data going back to 1929. Of course M* data for that era is only monthly. So while daily values are downloaded, they don't change most days. You might want to do some interpolation as a fixup.
  • Mid-Year CG Distributions
    For the first time since inception, DVSMX paid a distribution of 2.3% on July 5. Since 2017, distributions have been paid in December. I suspect that formerly high-flying funds have had to sell winners. Current shareholders, myself included, will foot the tax bill. I wonder if other members' growth holdings have stepped up their distributions. I wouldn't be surprised if December brings another relatively high tax bill for growth funds, as occurred in 2021.
  • Amazing / TROW down nearly 40% YTD
    Good points by@msf. Yes, quite correct that an asset manager’s higher AUM would tend to increase its share of a stock holding. In addition, since a lot of TROW may be held by index funds, an investment in it might not reflect management’s true appraisal of the stock.
    D&C ‘s list of holdings for DODGX published 3/31/22 does not reference any TROW stock. The list may / may not be complete, but appears to cover at least their top 75 holdings. I checked the earlier Annual Report for the same fund and it appears as of 12/31/21 DODGX held 0 shares of TROW.
    Current price TROW $13.10 / Down 2.47%
  • TIPS FUNDS/ETF’s,,,,,,, has 2022 proven them losers?
    I am considering buying T-bills. I never did it, so maybe I am confused by something, but I see that 52 week T-bills yield almost exactly 3%.
    You got it, T bills are still gaining yield. I figure 3.05% based on the "price for $100" figure for the most recent 52 wk. auction. Makes me wish I hadn't started buying bills as soon as I did.
  • M* screwing everything up again
    A question for veteran M* users/those who found something better. The most valuable feature in the old M* for my (quite idiosyncratic) purposes was not the portfolio tracker. It was the ability to export historical performance into a spreadsheet (an option on the Interactive chart until just a few weeks ago).
    For instance, when I found a very old fund (Vanguard Wellington in this example), I could click max on the date, and the chart would show the value of $10,000 invested in 1929 when the fund began. A little export button gave the spreadsheet option; et voila, I had monthly performance data on Wellington back to 1929.
    Interactive chart is still there, but no export button now
    1. Is the export button there on the new paid M* site?
    2. Can I do the same thing at MFO?
    3. Could I recreate that sort of Wellington returns history on another site?
    -for instance, Dividend Shares was one of the oldest funds and among the largest for several decades. A lucky search, inspired in part by mfs, revealed it was eventually renamed Alliance Bernstein relative value. That fund shows the history to 1932 on the M* site, but alas I cannot download as before :-(