It looks like you're new here. If you want to get involved, click one of these buttons!
Many believe that the recent rise in US treasury yields has crept up on the Fed policy radar and that the natural next step for the Fed is to hint at and eventually deliver a yield curve control (YCC) policy, just as it has been forced into so many easing moves in the past, once the market is sufficiently distressed to provide the excuse. Here, we look at why comprehensive YCC is not on the way any time soon.
home.saxo/content/articles/macroMy favourite way to keep tabs of all of this remains the Gold price. If YCC was really on the way, gold would be $1,000 higher (as capped interest rates and emerging inflation would force real rates even deeper into the negative.) Instead, gold is losing altitude quickly as right now, real rates remain stubbornly bid, and this even before the incoming, monster $1.9 trillion Biden fiscal spending and $2-3 trillion in infrastructure spending to come later, before the EU starts allocating its new budget, and before China reverses its current tight monetary stance. In other words, we have only just started on this move higher in yields as the physical world is way too small for the fiscal spending on infrastructure, the green transformation, and supporting incomes for the lower half of the “K” in the K-shaped recovery.
Gold is your indicator for yield curve control and real interest rates. Speculative equities and those valued at nosebleed multiples of even the steadiest of free cash flow yields could be another.
k-shaped-recoveryA K-shaped recovery occurs when, following a recession, different parts of the economy recover at different rates, times, or magnitudes. This is in contrast to an even, uniform recovery across sectors, industries, or groups of people. A K-shaped recovery leads to changes in the structure of the economy or the broader society as economic outcomes and relations are fundamentally changed before and after the recession. This type of recovery is called K-shaped because the path of different parts of the economy when charted together may diverge, resembling the two arms of the Roman letter "K."
https://mitpress.mit.edu/contributors/vaclav-smilPower density—the rate of energy flux per unit of area—is an important but largely overlooked measure. ...
[Smil] argues that our inevitable (and desirable) move to new energy arrangements involving conversions of lower-density renewable energy sources will require our society—currently dominated by megacities and concentrated industrial production—to undergo a profound spatial restructuring of its energy system.
LOL - @Blitzer, The fund is not meant to be understood. :)TMSRX down .56% today. I know it's only one day's performance, but any ideas what happened?
@Sven - I doubt very many, including myself, understand how it behaves. It’s always had kind of a “doomsday” following (the end of civilization crowd). I think the wild swings are associated with very large holders “playing” the market. Likely these guys (hedge funds, etc.) are making money whether the price rises or falls. They’re loaded with algorithms and smart traders able to predict what we Tom Dick and Harry are likely to do - in the same way professional gamblers know how to game the system and take advantage of the unsophisticated. (Remember we’re talking about a relatively narrow market.)” I never quite understand gold as an investment ... “
Thank you. Will explore further with this interesting idea.To reduce volatility by 25%, one can use a 75/0/25 portfolio (stocks/bonds/cash).
It can be the most wonderful - and also most awful - holding among one’s investments. I’ve slowly bought down in recent months in my one mining fund (OPGSX). It now amounts to 2.5% of total investments, dwarfed by most everything else. Yet, on a daily basis it is often the biggest determiner of how the day went. IMHO - it’s about as close to gambling as one can get with their investments. I could never recommend it to anyone - though in physical form I think some of the bullion coins lovely (keeping in mind that beauty is in the eyes of the beholder).I see little value of holding gold in this environment. Perhaps gold miners maybe use for trading purpose. I share the opinion with Warren Buffet on gold.
Forbes (2018), The Most Confused Identity In Your Portfolio: High Yield BondsHigh yield bonds, also known as “junk” bonds, have always had an identity crisis. They show up in our portfolio reviews under the category of “bonds,” but in reality, they move more closely with the stock market than the bond market. ...
High-yield bonds historically have a correlation of .71 with stocks, and a correlation of .17 with traditional bonds, meaning they move much more closely with stocks than bonds.
© 2015 Mutual Fund Observer. All rights reserved.
© 2015 Mutual Fund Observer. All rights reserved. Powered by Vanilla