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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • U.S. consumer spending surges in January; inflation heats up
    PCE went up in January as CPI. This is one of Fed’s metric monitored carefully. As a result, another round of sell off in both stocks and bonds today.
    The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index shot up 0.6% last month, the largest increase since June 2022, after gaining 0.2% in December. In the 12 months through January, the PCE price index accelerated 5.4% after rising 5.3% in December.
    Excluding the volatile food and energy components, the PCE price index increased 0.6%. That was the biggest gain since August 2022 and followed a 0.4% rise in December. The so-called core PCE price index increased 4.7% on a year-on-year basis in January after advancing 4.6% in December.
    The Fed tracks the PCE price indexes for monetary policy. The government reported on Thursday that inflation increased much faster than initially thought in the fourth quarter, mostly reflecting upgrades to consumer and producer price data published this month. That left some economists to expect that the road to disinflation would be slow and bumpy.
    https://fidelity.com/news/article/top-news/202302240842RTRSNEWSCOMBINED_KBN2UY12C-OUSBS_1
  • Short Term High Yield vs. CDs vs. Treasuries vs. I-Bonds
    @msf : Thanks again for more info. I was wondering what to do with A199 dividends.
    Have a great day, Derf
  • Short Term High Yield vs. CDs vs. Treasuries vs. I-Bonds
    Takes a million dollars to get into SNAXX, so you often must give up about .15% yield and settle for its sibling SWVXX. I was able to buy SNAXX, in one of my accounts, in March of 2022, when I sold/reduced OEFs, but since then I have been able to retain SNAXX, at much lower amounts. With interest rates continuing to rise, I choose to own both SNAXX and some short term CDs paying 5%.
    I also own SNAXX, I also transferred one share from Rollover to Roth and switched from SWVXX to SNAXX at Roth. When I trade, I made sure to leave 1-2 shares of SNAXX, so I can buy it later, when I sell.
  • Short Term High Yield vs. CDs vs. Treasuries vs. I-Bonds
    Several posts I made over the years
    1) 2020, going to cash on 2/29/2000(link). I actually posted here too(link)
    2) In early 2022, going to cash(link).
    3) In 11/2022, going back in and why (link).
    4) I posted about one good indicator I have been using for years, called 3 line break. You can read about it (here). I explained some of my trades. If you look at 3 line break (link) it's very clear why I sold early in Feb. HYD,ORNAX are HY Munis.
    Unfortunately, no more trades in real-time.
  • Jamie Dimon says we might get to 6%
    OK - Ya got me on those cheesy little driver side mirrors. Hard to adjust - but there were some in the 60s. But the passenger side (right side) were late in coming and of course, even then, it was hard to reach over and adjust them when driving. :)
    ”Even until the late 1980s, new cars didn’t come pre-installed with passenger side-view mirrors. “ Source
    Let’s remember that the kind of people who frequented White Castle (and devoured 20-cent burgers) weren’t the wealthiest on the block. Quite likely in the 60s they were driving something built in the 50s or earlier.
    @msf - your experience with non-power steering is different from mine. The ‘57 and ‘62 Chevies I owned were a bit of a struggle to steer. But one got used to it and didn’t really notice. It’s amazing the things we got used to in those days.
  • Jamie Dimon says we might get to 6%
    We each have different memories. Vehicles w/o mirrors are before my time:
    The National Traffic and Motor Vehicle Safety Act of 1966 addressed safety standards, including rear visibility, and although it did not specifically require [rear or side] mirrors, they started to become standard equipment in the mid-to-late '1960s.
    https://www.caranddriver.com/features/a39613608/side-view-mirror-evolution/
    Now manual steering is something else. While it could take a lot of effort to steer, remember that cars were much lighter then and the engines weren't sitting over the front axle. My old MR2 had the easiest, most responsive steering of any car I've owned - with a curb weight of 2100 lbs, mid engine (M) rear wheel (R) drive, (2) seater (MR2) - pure joy. But also decades later.
    Some TVs in the 60s, even the 50s did have wireless remote controls, but they were very limited in both capacity and availability. They were sold with some Zenith sets. The one I knew about was the "Space Command" (ultrasonic) in the 60s. Though earlier, in the 50s, Zenith had an optical remote control, the Flashmatic "ray gun". Just because you couldn't afford a remote control that cost 1/6 the price of a car (without mirrors or power steering) doesn't mean it didn't exist :-)
    https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20180830-the-history-of-the-television-remote-contro
    Without a remote control, this is how one adjusted a TV (Ernie Kovacs video 1½ min)
    https://content.jwplatform.com/previews/tQ5Knynv
  • Jamie Dimon says we might get to 6%
    Nice take L.B.
    Used to buy those White Castles when visiting relatives in and around Detroit in the 60s. Remember 20 cents. I was making $1.25 an hour than at a summer job at a gas station. No benefits of course. The 3-speed stick-shift cars we drove to White Castle were clunky gas guzzlers. (20 mpg was nearly unheard of). No power steering, power brakes or turn signals. Reach out and adjust the side mirror by hand if lucky enough to have one - most cars didn’t. Might even have to hop out and change a flat tire ourselves on the way home - as “flats” were common in those days. After getting home we’d watch something on a small black & white TV - whatever the 3 or 4 available networks decided to air. No remote control of course.. Would need to get up to adjust the “vertical” or “horizontal” settings every few minutes as the picture would always go out of kilter. But the burgers tasted damn good.
  • Jamie Dimon says we might get to 6%
    Why is it people always remember the lower prices from the past, the music and young love, but so rarely the horrors? Wally and the Beave weren’t the 1950s reality for many if not most people who lived back then. I doubt it was even the reality for the actors playing Wally and the Beave. Yet half the nation wants to go back. Nor is this meant to pick on you. I have bouts of nostalgia too.
  • Short Term High Yield vs. CDs vs. Treasuries vs. I-Bonds
    msf : Thanks again for covering all the bases. At this time I'm looking at an amended 2021 return.
    It occurred to me that I may have been a little loose in saying that divs = qualified divs + nonqualified divs. That's somewhat of a tautology, relying on the "law of the excluded middle" - everything is X or not X. I didn't go into what "nonqualified div" means.
    Box 1(a) - all divs - includes qualified divs (box (1(b)) and ...
    - short term gains (for mutual funds)
    - section 199A dividends (from REITs; these get a special 20% break in taxes)
    - "ordinary" nonqualified divs (nonqualified divs other than STG or Sec 199A divs)
    Perhaps I still shouldn't go into what "nonqualified div" means. That likely makes things more confusing. Just stick with 1(a) for each fund if you have that on your supplemental information (detail) statement for each fund.
  • Jamie Dimon says we might get to 6%
    "(Remember 19 cent burgers?)" Of course. We used to get White Castle's for 8 cents and endless coffee for 5 cents a cup.
  • Short Term High Yield vs. CDs vs. Treasuries vs. I-Bonds
    Short term CD rates of 5% are becoming more commonplace. My Capital One Bank has been offering 5% CDs for an 11 month period in recent weeks. Schwab has 4 banks offering 5% CDs for one year. If you go shorter for 6 to 9 months, you can get about 6 banks offering 4.9% CDs, and if you want to go a little longer to 18 months, there are about 4 banks offering 4.9% CDs at Schwab. I am expecting CD rates, for shorter term CDs, to approach 5.5% in the next 3 to 6 months. It is hard for a retired investor, to ignore 5%+ CDs, in very volatile markets. I am getting 4.62% Money Market rates at Schwab, in my IRA account, and I fully expect those rates to creep up to around 4.75% in the next 3 to 6 months--much better than my more liquid banking accounts at Capital One.
  • Jamie Dimon says we might get to 6%
    ...He got that from ME. I had the scoop before uncle Jamie. Is this really news, after all? Perhaps.
    Anyway, inflation's not going away. Unless there's another Great Depression. I learned in history class that unemployment was into the 30s percent and a full meal could be had at a restaurant for a quarter in those days. (Remember 19 cent burgers?)
    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/jpmorgans-dimon-says-u-interest-012212631.html
  • Billions Pouring Into Bond ETFs Are Bright Spot for Blackrock / FT
    I was able to read it--- after I got past the stupid cookies page. God, there MUST be an app that can EFFECTIVELY block that crap. Anyway, it makes sense. Though ordinarily, there should not be much to worry about. Even so, we DO live in "interesting times."
    Bloomberg is airing a Ukraine War special. Surely they'll replay it so the rest of you can see it. 11:40 p.m. here, 5 hours behind the East.
  • PRTXX performance
    TRP sweep account. I've held very small amounts in it, and for just a little while, about $1k. I checked to see what it's giving me.
    I initiated this position at the start of my brokerage account. June 24, 2021.
    Up until tonight, 23 Feb, 2023, "Personal Rate Of Return":
    Last calendar quarter: 2.93%
    YTD: 0.37
    1 year: 5.62
    since inception: 3.22
    **********************
    Convenient, and a lot better than the standard savings account at the lovely credit union.
    YMMV.
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    Preparing to make our monthly contribution to David Giroux"s retirement fund, I mean TRAIX. ;)
    I've been in it since Nov. 2013. Through thick and thicker, it's served me well. Lately, when it's had a couple of very good days, I grabbed some small chunks and reassigned them into junk bond fund PRCPX. I'm growing that one. Letting TUHYX just ride. In hard dollars, I figure I've devoted enough to TUHYX already.
  • Victory Funds' name change of USAA funds
    There is an interesting background story.
    When USAA went back to its core business of serving military personnel and veterans, it sold its fund operations to Victory Capital/VCTR in 2018, & brokerage + wealth management operations to Schwab/SCHW in 2019.
    These USAA funds at Victory have been losing AUM. One problem is that former the USAA advisors that are now with Schwab have stopped recommending them, or even pulling their clients' money out. So, after 5 yrs, Victory is rebranding (it is really a boutique of several brands, see link below).
    By the way, soon after acquiring USAA funds, Victory Capital moved its HQ from Ohio into San Antonio, TX facility formerly owned by USAA.
    https://www.vcm.com/
  • Short Term High Yield vs. CDs vs. Treasuries vs. I-Bonds
    @msf : Thanks again for covering all the bases. At this time I'm looking at an amended 2021 return.
  • Short Term High Yield vs. CDs vs. Treasuries vs. I-Bonds
    To add to the skepticism, the timing of the post is curious. "Indicators triggered a sell in early Feb.", yet this sell wasn't posted until the last week of February, right after the worst market decline of the year.
    To OJ: if the timing had been perfect, it seems we would have heard about it immediately, rather than weeks later, when the indicators finally proved out (for the moment).
    It makes one wonder if these indicators (with a nod to Samuelson) have signaled nine of the last five market declines.
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    I took a scalpel to my O holding, sending half to RQI, and the balance to PDT. RQI is a current holding, and I expect a greater degree of growth plus enhanced distribution when compared to O. PDT is a new holding, 50% in stocks (primarily utilities and some energy) plus the balance in fixed income (mostly preferred holdings plus bonds and some cash). This may be a bit squirrelly over the next 6 months as rates peak then level off as with any fixed income holding, but currently trades at a discount with a 9.15% monthly distribution.