Linking some analysis from today. (Published before the price turned and headed south again.)
LINK
Hard to figure out. It’s a rocky investment most of the time and hasn’t done as well as equities over the years. Still, some find it appealing as a small holding in a diversified portfolio. Others have an almost spiritual fascination with it and have loaded up mightily.
- Rising interest rates tend to spook metals markets.
- Perceptions the Fed will keep rates very low tend to support metals markets.
- The bitcoin craze has, as others noted, impacted the metals markets for the worse.
It should be noted that metals & miners did very well during 2019-20. Some mining funds sported one year gains of around 50%. To some extent, dues are being paid today for that immense run-up.
LINK to miners ETF (shows current price)

As of 2018 according to Cerulli Associates, 2/3 of all 401(k) contributions and 1/3 of assets were in Target Date Funds. One can speculate that those invested in shorter maturity vehicles (2025 or earlier) with higher bond percentages (by design) in an environment of escalating rates may find their quarterly statement does not reflect the level of return and/or principal preservation they had expected.
Interested in reading other perspectives.

How do you managed on the bond portion of the equation as a retiree?
I've never yet actually USED any of my bond funds' dividends. I'm still reinvesting all of that. ... Luckily, we don't need that money. What I take from the IRA, I've been taking from my biggest holding--- which is PRWCX. It's a balanced fund, though. Because of its size in my portfolio, it's easier to grow back the chunk I take. I plan for that chunk-taking to be an annual ritual. Done it only twice, so far. And what am I talking about? Just $4-5K. The bond dividends help keep the portf. stable in weird, "interesting" times.

update to institutional shares (GCMFX, GNMFX):
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/810893/000119312521062769/d124234d497.htm
497 1 d124234d497.htm 497
PIMCO Funds
Supplement dated March 1, 2021 to the Municipal Value Funds Prospectus (the “Prospectus”), and to the Statement of Additional Information (the “SAI”), each dated July 31, 2020, each as supplemented from time to time
Disclosure Related to the PIMCO California Municipal Opportunistic Value Fund and PIMCO National Municipal Opportunistic Value Fund (each a “Fund” and collectively the “Funds”)
As previously disclosed, PIMCO may from time to time determine to close either or both Funds to initial purchases by new investors or to initial purchases by new investors and subsequent purchases by existing shareholders and will provide notice regarding such closures.
Effective March 3, 2021 (the “Effective Date”), the Funds will close to initial purchases by new investors and subsequent purchases by existing shareholders. Such closure will not affect the rights of existing shareholders with respect to shares of the Funds held as of the Effective Date. The purchase of additional shares of the respective Fund through dividend reinvestments will continue to be permitted.
Notice will be provided regarding any future reopening of a Fund to subsequent purchases by existing shareholders or to initial purchases by new investors and subsequent purchases by existing shareholders.
Investors Should Retain This Supplement for Future Reference

Jonathan Krinsky used to work at MKM Partners. Here is article he wrote in Seeking Alpha back in 2016.
https://seekingalpha.com/article/3859006-krinsky-on-stock-market-primary-trend-shifted-to-downside

@WABAC, you may want to review River Park Short Term High Yield, RPHYX. David has provided a detail analysis of the fund.
https://mutualfundobserver.com/2017/05/riverpark-short-term-high-yield-fund-rphyxrphix/
YTD return is +0.3% while vast majority of bond funds are in red for the year.

Thanks for the tip. I did read your link. And I did look into RPHYX on other sources.
I like the duration. The ER is too high for me to get into a B-rated bond fund. I don't think anything could get me into a B-rated fund.

With growth ETFs off 5-6% in the last 2 weeks. (OK, that’s nothing). But here’s a guy that has predicted they will slow.
https://theonedave.substack.com/p/momentum-last-seen-in-2000-puts-us
The originator is actually: Jonathan Krinsky, Bay Crest Partners LLC , but I can’t seem to locate his original work.

fmsdx cfiax azanx hold a lot of non investment grade bonds so they dont compare well to hblix, wbalx or bampx. they are all classified as conservative allocation funds. but fmsdx cfiax and azanx loose a lot more when the market melts down. I would rather buy moderate allocation funds with more stocks. such as lkbax,msfrx,mapox.Which I own.

Hmmm...Many believe non-investment grade bonds is the place to be right now and for the near-to-intermediate future.
Not sure about the volatility of the respective funds but "Volatility is the price you pay for growth" is the wisest and most profitable investment advice I ever received.
In the 50%-70% cat, I have long owned PRWCX, FBALX, and VBIAX. All 5* funds that all have better TR performance for just about every period than 4*/3* LKBAX, MSFRX and MAPOX.
Never heard of LKBAX before you posted about it. MFS is a worthy family but MSFRX clearly ain't their best fund. Used to own MAPOX long ago but do not like their overall strategy.
Based on this post of yours, I trust you'll have something negative to say about my three, but not sure it will make any sense to me. To wit, if I only owned three funds, it would be these three.
Really don't care to discuss this any further. Good luck to you.

Well as they say hindsight is 20-20 right?
Should note that the fund did have a nice pedigree and backing, David Bonderman, chair and founder of TPG, private equity firm w/~$85B in assets backed (per WSJ, TPG/Bonderman had no day to day participation in the mgmt or valuation of investments in the fund") InfinityQ and per the WSJ article, according to people familiar with the matter had approx $100MM invested in the fund.
To the Monday morning QBs...Please show me any other fund that was around since Oct 2014 and had the same combo of low drawdown, volatility and return and zig when the SPY zagged downward...(potential fraud and make believe numbers not withstanding)
@Wabac, noting that the return of the fund was after paying the high fee, still not a bad return...dunno, I get it that expenses eat into returns, but if I'm going to the Doc, Dentist, auto mechanic, I look for the most experience, value and quality etc...not low price necessarily. If he was not cooking the numbers, I would argue that this fund was worth the high cost.
Just be careful, you might be next...we might be talking about the wisdom of those who put their monies into a SPY index fund that includes Tesla and the Cathie Wood funds as something that in hindsight looked really foolish...let's be intellectually honest with each other as why not, we don't know each other anyways...but I'd argue that the ARK funds could easily go down another 50% from here...we know they are way overvalued but some pour money into them until maybe last week. That to me, seems like a way crazier investment that putting monies into a fund with an over 5 year track record and backed by a very experienced private equity founder.
So, anyways, let's hope it all works out and no one loses too much monies for this financial lesson....as always, respect, good health and good luck to all,
Baseball Fan

@WABAC, you may want to review River Park Short Term High Yield, RPHYX. David has provided a detail analysis of the fund.
https://mutualfundobserver.com/2017/05/riverpark-short-term-high-yield-fund-rphyxrphix/
YTD return is +0.3% while vast majority of bond funds are in red for the year.

There is a lot more information in Buffett's interview with respect to bonds in general.

“Bonds are not the place to be these days,” Buffett said. “Fixed-income investors worldwide – whether pension funds, insurance companies or retirees – face a bleak future.”
Buffett noted that the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield had fallen drastically to 0.93% at the end of 2020 from 15.8% in September 1981. Meanwhile, investors earn a negative return on trillions of dollars of sovereign debt in Germany and Japan, he added.

If US investment opportunties are so great, why is he buying back $9 billion worth of Berkshire Hathaway stock? The answer is that he have had hard time buying them within his metrics and this is consistent with his investment pattern for a number of years. Recent purchase in drug and telecommunication stocks is a reflection of his forward looking view in post-pandemic scenario.
In addition, Buffet also made many mistakes just like other investors or fund managers. His value investment approach exposes him to the value-trap stocks. At least he owed up to his mistakes and moved on.
https://reuters.com/article/us-berkshire-buffett-precisioncastparts/warren-buffetts-10-billion-mistake-precision-castparts-idUSKCN2AR0MZ

Don't bet against him/market
Keep buying brk.b & dji sp500 Nasdaq
Also contribute 25-30% overseas eu
You maybe laughing your ways to bank 10 20 yrs from today.

Weird. Here in DC I got a re-run from last summer with Jim Rosenblatt of Gotham Securities. ;/

Feb 26th Episode:

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“Whoa. A lot to unpack there” - Not really. It’s just one of a half-dozen different market takes Barron’s typically presents from a variety of different sources in a small section of the magazine each week. More, I think, to give a flavor of the kinds of questions advisors are batting around (to borrow your spring training metaphor) than to provide any definitive or accurate point of view.
“But I hear the GOP wants to position itself ... ” - OK

Oh, I get that.
Among other things I was thinking about putting Reagan and Volker in the same basket after packing the 50's and 60's into the same bear market as the 70's. And that whole four decade bull was pretty much treading water for 13-14 years after the dot com bust. At some point the market became Friedman's, and now seems to be a wholly owned subsidiary of the Fed.
Took my brain a while to boil it down to a paragraph.
Rest assured that my opinions are neither definitive nor accurate. ;-)
Spring training game today. First Moderna shot on Monday morning.

I have learned from past mistakes and would never buy a new unproven fund like IQDAX. And I might add I would not buy the TMSRX fund either. For a low risk fund for my portfolio I would prefer a funds like bampx, wbalx, hblix. I own all of them. they usually hold 50% bonds 50% stocks.

I have no interest at all in IQDAX.
I have been DCA'ing into TMSRX. FWIW, it has easily been outperforming those three AA funds since its inception with only ~28% stocks.
In the 30%-50% cat, I own CFIAX and FMSDX (the latter which I regard as Best in Class). If I were to add another, it would be AZNAX. After that, I'd consider adding BAMPX and likely stop there.

I have learned from past mistakes and would never buy a new unproven fund like IQDAX. And I might add I would not buy the TMSRX fund either. For a low risk fund for my portfolio I would prefer a funds like bampx, wbalx, hblix. I own all of them. they usually hold 50% bonds 50% stocks.

If inflation remain less than the 2% target, what is the value of holding gold as a hedge against inflation?

@Sven - Also noticed the reference to gold in the cited passage. I have no idea what gold might do or whether one should own it. I’ve concluded that gold fits the definition of manic-depressive - being prone to extreme mood swings with little apparent reason.
Likely the article cited was penned several days prior to being published. Over those few days gold’s price stumbled from around $1800 (start of week) to $1730 at yesterday’s close. The miners fell about 5% Thursday and another 3-4% Friday.
IMHO - It’s too erratic to serve as a reliable inflation hedge. Those who promote buying gold seem to be of the belief that the Fed’s stimulative measures along with massive government spending will eventually lead to a cataclysmic fall in the dollar’s value.

@hank

We expect that the clamor for bigger government will contribute to a secular bear market that could rival the one that persisted from the 1950s to the 1980s.

Are they talking about a bear market in bonds? Or what?

Just one view ...
By Daily Insight Research - BCA Research (excerpt from Barron’s March 1, 2021 issue)
“We recommend that multi-asset investors underweight bonds, especially Treasuries. We expect that the clamor for bigger government will contribute to a secular bear market that could rival the one that persisted from the 1950s to the 1980s. Within Treasury portfolios, we would maintain below-benchmark duration and favor Treasury inflation-protected securities over nominal bonds, at least until the Fed signals that its campaign to re-anchor inflation expectations higher has achieved its goal. Gold and/or other precious metals merit a place in portfolios as a hedge against rising inflation, and other real assets, from land to buildings to other resources, are worthy of consideration, as well.”
(No link. I’m a Barron’s subscriber.)

Feb 26th Episode:

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