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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Tough Day in Bond Land
    For retirees who depend on bond yield, this is not a friendly environment.
    Today the yield on 2 and 10 year treasuries went down a bit today after the 10 Y went over 2.0% on Monday.
    Fed meets on Wednesday, March 16th and will decide to hike the rate 0.25% or 0.50%.
  • Plummeting commodity prices and inflation?
    I see the recent rapid "decent" in commodities, especially oil the past week, as just a correction to the rapid "ascent" from when the war started. I don't think the recent decline has much to do about any change in inflation forecast. Just my 2-cents.
    I did have a trailing stop order trim my DBC holding by about 20% after a 5% drop from highs last week. But I plan to hold on for the ride with the remaining commodities money through 2022. This war has just added tremendous volatility and confounded all investing.
  • Plummeting commodity prices and inflation?
    @Junkster said, “don’t want my bearish bias to influence me …”
    I resemble that remark. :)
    I don’t think I can time the markets. (Perhaps others can.) I almost always regret it. Raising my “alternative” sleeve from 30% to 40% is probably the best move I’ve made recently. it’s a moderate but diversified mix of various strategies and includes one equity. Some came out of growth and some out of income. Reduces neck discomfort from all the whip-saw action.
    Still holding another 9-10% in hedges against equity downdrafts. About half of that in TAIL - which reduces the discomfort evident in that classic “Observer” thrill-ride photo that’s already been reposted.
    Gold’s down over $45 today to just above $1900. May seem like a lot - but need to remember it got down to $1700 on 2 or more occasions in 2021. So still well above that.
    EDIT: While gold is down, the p/m miners are having a decent day up nearly 1%. Looks like the industrial metals have trimmed their morning losses as well.
    You can believe in inflation without giving it a name or degree: ie “transient”, “rampant”, “slight” or “just about right”. I can’t think of any other reason for those of us with gray hair (or none at all) to put a single dime at risk unless we think paper currencies will buy less in coming years than they do today.
  • Tough Day in Bond Land
    The FED should have started rate hikes at the end of last year, if not sooner. We would be in a better inflationary position to accept a .25% hike now - or none at all this time around. I believe history will show Powell F'ed up pretty bad with his view on inflation. Transitory inflation??? WTF. Even I didn't believe that and I'm as ignorant as can be on the topic.
  • Plummeting commodity prices and inflation?
    Alex Eule, Barron's writes | Monday, March 14
    "One change from the first days of the war, though, is that oil prices are now falling. That's possibly on hopes of a resolution, but more likely because China shutdowns are threatening the global demand for energy. Crude fell 5.8% on the day, to $103.01 a barrel. It's down 17% since March 8."
    "For nearly two years, though, it's been the tale of two pandemics. As cases surged in the U.S. and Europe, China's "Zero-Covid" approach seemed to work. Covid waves in the West continued to crest, while China's numbers were virtually flat. Chinese factories kept going, one bright spot amid the global supply chain's problems.
    But on Sunday, China reported 1,800 new cases of symptomatic Covid, its highest daily total in two years. The country put Shenzhen and its nearly 18 million residents under a new lockdown that will last at least a week. Shenzhen is home to key manufacturing facilities, including Apple iPhone assembler Foxconn. Shanghai is also dealing with new lockdowns."
  • Tough Day in Bond Land
    A Fed surprise is the last thing that the market would want at this time of a geopolitical event. I think a baby 25-bps hike will do for now with 50-bps shocker left in the reserve for later. But that is just my guess. At one time, I thought the Fed may start with 50-bps bang, but not now. The language and tone of the FOMC Statement would be important.
    BTW, for "tough day/time", look at some bond CEFs.
  • CEF. SOR. Source Capital
    SOR - Source Capital is a storied CEF with lots of history. Warren Buffett once thought so highly of the fund that he considered buying it, but that didn't happen. Activist Saba owns a stake. There was a big management change in 2016 and also changes in objectives from aggressive-allocation (70-85% equity) to moderate-allocation (50-70% equity) - so ignore record prior to 2016. Historically, the equity portion has been small/mid-cap using the GARP approach and fixed income riskier preferreds/convertibles, HY; there is income/distribution tilt - there are not many allocation funds with this mix. Effective-equity is 76% vs 61% nominal. Leverage is not indicated but there are common and preferred shareholders, so check this aspect. There is some value bounce lately. Also look at the info at CEFConnect.
    https://www.cefconnect.com/fund/SOR
  • Tough Day in Bond Land
    We'll find out today if this is due to a more hawkish FED. 50 basis points instead of 25 maybe?
    Barrons this morning:
    ...Either way investors now expect the Fed to be more hawkish.
    Another inflation reading, February’s producer-price index due Tuesday, could add weight to that theory. Producer prices are expected to rise 10% year-over-year up from 9.7% in January.
    The Fed meets later today ahead of its eagerly anticipated decision Wednesday, when it is expected to increase interest rates by 25 basis points. But the Fed’s forward guidance around rate hikes and Chair Jerome Powell’s tone will be the main event.
    If Fed officials share the markets’ view, they could even spring a hawkish surprise with their guidance.
  • Tough Day in Bond Land
    Even sedate SQIFX down .01 . I've sold all my bond funds-even lost 2.5% on my small foray into VCIT recently !
    @carew388
    In what direction did you throw that money, if I may ask? Or are you growing cash?
  • Tough Day in Bond Land
    Even sedate SQIFX down .01 . I've sold all my bond funds-even lost 2.5% on my small foray into VCIT recently !
  • Ping the Board
    To the original question in the Pudd's post, PQTAX (Pimco's trend following managed futures fund) is my one real winner year to date, up 10%. (Well, except for the short S&P 500 etf SH, which has done better, but I haven't participated in the whole ride.)
    I like that Pimco moves exposure around among stx, commodities, bonds, rates, and currencies, and they seem to get the direction reversals right fairly quickly, more often than not.
  • Tough Day in Bond Land
    PMZIX -6 cents
    DODIX -11 cents
    CLMAX -6 cents
    PIMIX -4 cents
    OSTIX -7 cents
    PDIIX -7 cents
    MWIGX -7 cents
    MWFEX -5 cents
    BHK -12 cents
    DMO -29 cents
    Better ...
    RCTIX -1 cent
    CBLDX -1 cent
    DLDFX -2 cents
    SEMMX -1 cent
    ICMUX -1 cent
    ZEOIX -3 cents
    DHEAX -2 cents
    RHHIX -1 cent
    But, look here:
    IOFIX even
    DPFNX even
    BDKAX even
  • Ping the Board
    Yep, state laws set up the basic public utility regulatory structure, and a public commission does the details based on the state law, covering all forms of energy generation. Solar net metering, for example, is governed the same way.
    But, there are sources of variability. For example, a number of states have renewables portfolio standards, and the commissions are very political bodies, more than a few of them pure lap dogs of the utilities, while others take the word "public" at least somewhat seriously.
    The structure for allowable profit may be different in different states, not sure how much that varies. My state has a return-on-capital formula, which leads the dominant utility in bizarre directions: the more they pay for a new source, the more they get to charge the ratepayer.
    The coal in the utility's portfolio costs the ratepayers more than twice as much per unit as the one large wind farm, which almost qualifies as historic now, having been finished in 2005, positively ancient and costly compared to newer ones. And yet, the utility doesn't want another watt of renewable power, and is trying to buy more coal for the portfolio, and thus can charge ratepayers more.
    Utility Dive is a good source for learning about the ins and outs of utility policy and regulation. Much of the news these days is about evolving renewables issues, but UD goes into just about every aspect of public utility power generation.
    P.S. This may be obvious, but in case it's not, the basic setup for regulated utilities is letting them act as a monopoly provider for a certain area/population, in exchange for public regulation with provisions for the utility's profitability.
  • Plummeting commodity prices and inflation?
    There is another tread on commodity below,
    https://mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/59300/my-commodities-basket-got-clobbered-today-dbc
    Since oil is a major component within the Bloomberg commodity index, large swings of oil price in both directions is what you are seeing. Crude oil went up to low $70/barrel to $130 briefly and now at $108. The Ukraine war and the sanction are part of the story here.
    https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CL=F?p=CL=F&.tsrc=fin-srch
    Not sure it is just oil I am seeing, It is palladium, copper, heating oil, coffee, wheat, oats, lumber, platinum, and more. I guess we will see going forward how the inflation scenario plays out. I get uncomfortable thinking like everyone else be it stocks or inflation and finding myself too aligned with groupthink. That said, be it groupthink or not, bonds look totally broken.
  • Golden Dragon China PGJ
    @sma3 - Correct me if I'm wrong but believe it was you who brought this doctor, Katelyn Jetelina, to our attention. Anyway she emailed this today:
    State Of Affairs, March 14
  • Plummeting commodity prices and inflation?
    There is another tread on commodity below,
    https://mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/59300/my-commodities-basket-got-clobbered-today-dbc
    Since oil is a major component within the Bloomberg commodity index, large swings of oil price in both directions is what you are seeing. Crude oil went up to low $70/barrel to $130 briefly and now at $108. The Ukraine war and the sanction are part of the story here.
    https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CL=F?p=CL=F&.tsrc=fin-srch
  • Plummeting commodity prices and inflation?
    Seems many are positioned for rising inflation in their fund holdings. I am no chartist but see tops galore in commodities - either exhaustion tops or just plain old fashioned tops. And lumber shows a classic triple top. Some commodities with exhaustion tops are down 20% to 25% (and more if you include palladium) in a very short period of time. I am a bear on equities (like just about everyone else) In January I had alluded to the 73/74 period with prices unfolding far worse than many bears are currently expecting - much deeper and longer. And the bond market looks broken beyond repair. But I am beginning to wonder if we are all being fooled by the headline news of uncertainty over Ukraine, interest rates, inflation, and the pandemic The stock market is a counterintuitive creature and even more so at bottoms. Logic just doesn’t cut it. I don’t want my bearish bias to influence me and will be closely watching for one or two humongous momentum days that come out of the blue (upside over downside volume) and then go from there. In other words, let the market tell me what to do and not my opinion. Meanwhile, If anyone can explain what is going on with the plummeting commodity prices I am all ears.
  • Ping the Board
    Here is a news article from an Allentown, Pennsylvania tv station about PPL cutting its dividend:
    https://www.wfmz.com/business/ppl-misses-earnings-estimates-cuts-dividend/article_5e33a4f0-90e6-11ec-b721-1bc89734cd0f.html
    Some states' electric and utility companies are regulated by Boards in their states.
    Here is a list of the Board of Utilities nationally in their respective states:
    https://www.puc.pa.gov/about-the-puc/national-list-of-utility-commissions/