Tariffs The sad investment and economic realities of the current adm's fiscal polices, the most notable of which is his asinine tariff strategy, are concisely and accurately explained in the OP's linked article. This article is exemplary of hundreds, if not thousands of articles, that have been written over the past 5 months in investment letters, magazines, newspapers, etc.
I posted several times today on a parallel, appropriately placed tariff thread, about the significant impact his asinine tariff strategy has had on my investment strategy and thinking, and cited it as THEE reason I broke a golden rule of portfolio strategy.
So there's that.
On a macro level, anyone not understanding how tariffs may impact investing or the economy, or how tariffs, you know, have been THEE biggest market mover since he started spewing about them months ago, probably shouldn't be taken seriously on an investment forum.
This Investing Trend Is Your Friend—Until It Isn’t I never used momentum indexes; I only used typical funds but looked at the best risk/reward ones and kept changing according to uptrends, and several parameters.
How to do that? It's the $64K. I developed my system for years, just as I developed my timing one for retirement. None is mechanical. See (
link).
I have posted for over 1
5 years on several boards, and I can say that there are maybe
5-7 people who do it well. The rest don't believe it, don't want to put in the effort, or don't care.
T Rowe Price ETFs in registration TCAL up .92% today vs S&P 500 .55%, interesting. Stock selection/weighting account for the over performance for today at least?
From my limited understanding is that funds that write call options normally don't keep up with the market.
This Investing Trend Is Your Friend—Until It Isn’t "If momo doesn't work, how come US LC were great during 1995-2000 + 2010-2024
while Value, SC, and international were better during 2000-10."
The author does state that an S&P momentum index beat the S&P 500 and a basket of value stocks.
He also suggests that it may not be the optimal time to use a momentum strategy
due to near-term economic headwinds. I don't know whether this suggestion will be proven correct.
This Investing Trend Is Your Friend—Until It Isn’t ""Momentum makes less sense to a thoughtful, long-term investor."
MMM...this investor has been using momo successfully since 2000 because it works if you know how to do that, and it's not that easy.
The other choice is to have some diversification LT with minimal trades, which is pretty good for most.
Something that is not easy doesn't mean it's undoable. You must have a system that works and keep tweaking it. It doesn't mean it's perfect; just better is enough to get better results.
If I had stocks, I would have a higher % in Value, Europe, China, and gold.
If momo doesn't work, how come US LC were great during 1995-2000 + 2010-2024 while Value, SC, and international were better during 2000-10. Each one lasted for years.
Generally, when US LC do well, it's difficult to beat them per risk-adjusted performance. When they are not, it takes more effort to find other categories and I would advise being more diversified.
Investors who don't believe it, don't practice it, and don't trade it can't be good traders.
Liberation Day! What’s the play? I guess that's what makes markets and debates.
FWIW, some believe we are already in or about to enter a period of stagflation with recession probabilities clearly spiking.
Components of stagflation and my 2 pennies:
Slow growth - Financial firms have already cut their YE S&P projections based on slower growth.
High unemployment - Coming back very soon to a country near us?
Rising prices - A lot of wood was chopped on this one, but under the tariff czar,
"It's all over now, baby blue?"
https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/stagflation-radar-us-economy-no-repeat-70s-2025-03-25/BTW, you kind of lost me with, "I have to take the administration’s word on it."
No capisce.
No need to debate it any further. We will not know the effects of the tariffs for quite some time yet and will not know what conditions we actually experienced until we look back.
Tariffs The following comments regarding Trump's tariffs were excerpted from an AP article published on Oct. 27, 2020.
Although the situation is different this time, historical information is useful in providing some context.
Please limit comments to how tariffs may impact the economy or investing.
This thread is not intended for political diatribes - please use Off Topic for that. "Trump set his sights on shrinking America’s vast trade deficits, portraying them as evidence
of economic weakness, misbegotten deals and abusive practices committed by other countries.
He pledged to boost exports and to curb imports by imposing tariffs — import taxes — on many foreign goods.""America’s deficit in goods and services now exceeds what it was under President Barack Obama.
Steel and aluminum makers have cut jobs despite Trump’s protectionist policies on their behalf.
His deals made scarcely a ripple in a $20 trillion economy.
For most Americans, Trump’s drastic trade policy ultimately meant little, good or bad, for their financial health.""Yet the belligerent approach has made scant difference in the number he cares about most:
The overall trade deficit in goods and services.
It barely dipped last year — by 0.5% to $577 billion, still higher than in any year of the Obama administration.
This year, the gap has widened nearly 6%, with the coronavirus pandemic having crushed tourism, education
and other service 'exports.'”"Contrary to his assertions, too, Trump’s tariffs have been paid by American importers, not foreign countries.
And their cost is typically passed on to consumers in the form of higher prices.
Researchers from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and Princeton and Columbia universities
have estimated that the president’s tariffs cost $831 per U.S. household annually."“His administration’s approach has delivered few tangible benefits to the U.S. economy while undercutting
the multilateral trading system, disrupting long-standing alliances with U.S. trading partners
and fomenting uncertainty, said Eswar Prasad, a Cornell University economist who formerly
led the International Monetary Fund’s China division."https://apnews.com/article/donald-trump-virus-outbreak-global-trade-trade-policy-mexico-39aadae9a6d18de2b91889f1e552b605
Liberation Day! What’s the play? Roger all that.
From March 1, 202
5:
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/03/01/doge-actions-may-cause-social-security-benefit-interruption-ex-agency-head.htmlExcerpt (
BOLD added):
...
“Ultimately, you’re going to see the system collapse and an interruption of benefits,” O’Malley said. “I believe you will see that within the next 30 to 90 days.”...
For people who are already receiving Social Security benefits, most of that is automated and may not be affected, she said. However, processing new claims — whether it be for retirement or disability benefits — may take longer since those cannot be processed without Social Security employees, Hornick said.IF they are affected, pretty sure
There Will Be Blood.
Tick. Tick. Tick.
EDIT: An apparent afternoon (IMO) dead cat bounce, if it holds, will play nicely into the plans of anyone who is today running from this scary looking freight train.
This Investing Trend Is Your Friend—Until It Isn’t "Momentum makes less sense to a thoughtful, long-term investor. It also seems reckless. Essentially, you buy more of what just went up. Many successful strategies require both analytical chops and discipline.
Following the crowd is already human nature and is a feature of bubbles.""But it is hard to argue with long-term results: A momentum index maintained by S&P Dow Jones Indices since the summer of 1994 would have turned a $1,000 investment into $28,500 by last summer—71% more than by just owning the S&P 500. It also beat value and high-dividend baskets handily while being less-volatile.""That is especially relevant at the moment because tariffs could dent global economic growth while also raising domestic prices.During low growth and rising inflation periods momentum has had annualized returns of negative 13.33% and lots of volatility too, according to a 2024 study by S&P. The risk-adjusted return for a high-dividend basket of stocks, by contrast, has been basically flat under the same conditions."https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/savingandinvesting/this-investing-trend-is-your-friend-until-it-isn-t/ar-AA1BZcW6
Liberation Day! What’s the play? FWIW, all SELLs (per above posts) have been entered today.
Reduced stock exposure by ~
50%.
Parking proceeds in VMRXX, FZDXX and will likely BUY a coupla new rungs on
5-yr CDs ladder that virtually guarantees a net positive TR in 202
5.
Kudos to
@larryB for this thread.
(Sadly) Timely and actionable.
EDIT: NOT saying this strategy is correct for anyone other than me and the missus.
BUT, our #1 goal this year, after two monster stock gain years under a REAL president, was to NOT allow the buffoon's asinine fiscal policies (read, orange brain farts) to cause us to be anything but net positive for the year on 12/31/2
5. And that goal has virtually been guaranteed with these moves today. Plus, we will sleep MUCH better thru year-end!
Liberation Day! What’s the play? MSF. The 51st state will be massively BLUE! Why would he who can’t be named want to add the bluest state unless elections were a thing of the past? Unless he hasn’t thought it out.
You think he THINKS of anything beyond his current conversation or tweet? He just ... does things, like a toddler with genetic impulse-control problems.
Liberation Day! What’s the play? MSF. The 51st state will be massively BLUE! Why would he who can’t be named want to add the bluest state unless elections were a thing of the past? Unless he hasn’t thought it out.
Liberation Day! What’s the play? @LarryB, from a historical perspective, what's going to be absolutely galling is that FOTUS and his people will be crowing over the next year about how 'great' America is (or 'will be') during its 2
50th celebration, thumping their chests for the cameras and celebrating Americana with all sorts of faux patriotic events/spectacles -- all while doing their damnest to rip us apart at home, screw the citizenry (including their base), and turning the majority of the world against us. This won't be "fiddling while Rome burns" or Nero appointing his horse as consul-crazy ..... this is "getting the symphony drunk and then playing the show in front of opening night reviewers"-level of crazy, and then complaining when the reviews are harsh.
I'm not going entirely to cash, but I've been lightening a few positions in recent weeks to be able to buy other things that may go on 'deep' discount soon.
Liberation Day! What’s the play? IMHO the biggest problem is the uncertainty. What are the tariffs today? Wednesday? Next Tuesday? And because businesses cannot make long term capital allocation plans, this virtually guarantees that GDP will be below
potential GDP. That's an argument against investing in stocks generally.
But some companies can benefit. The tariffs (whether actually imposed or not) have united Canadians in their opposition to buying US products (regardless of whether their governments officially boycott or tariff US goods). This bodes well for Canadian companies that sell domestically (i.e. to Canadians).
https://ca.style.yahoo.com/trumps-unjustified-25-tariffs-have-begun-heres-how-to-buy-canadian-during-a-trade-war-list-of-canadian-brands-to-shop-144356266.htmlAnd as an added bonus - once Canada is incorporated into the US, the large US market will again be open to all those Canadian companies without foreign tariffs. Just a thought for those with a longer investment horizon :-)
Liberation Day! What’s the play? I think that the real liberation day will be when the two presidents are in handcuffed and on their way to prison. Until then my investment plan is not to lose money. Lots of safe 4% yield spots to stash our chips we can watch what’s going on in horror . I was a graduate student of history long ago and I often wonder how the history of 2025 will be written.
Liberation Day! What’s the play? Agreed, but...that's a mighty BIG and highly unlikely "IF".
The buffoon will only remove/reduce the tariffs IF he can, in his f*cked up mind at least, reasonably declare victory.
Us? It's a fiscal policy freight train being driven by a mad man. Time to get the f*ck outta the way.
Disclaimer: All SELLs will be in IRAs and all positions being SOLD are UP 35%-95%.
Liberation Day! What’s the play? Liberation Day? Now is that the day when the buffoon proclaims he will be able to grab women's genitals on LIVE national TV without repurcussion?
Oh no, wait...
Great post by
@rforno.
What to do? We are breaking a cardinal rule of our investment strategy, SELLING stocks, especially tech and small caps, to take our stock allocation BELOW the minimum % we believe one MUST keep in ANY LT investment strategy.
That's how FEARFUL the buffoon's fiscal policies are.
That's how much worse we think it will get before it gets ANY better.
EDIT
Disclaimer: All SELLs will be in IRAs and all positions being SOLD are UP 3
5%-9
5%
====================================
From
The Barron's Daily
Trump Tariffs Are a Nightmare for Stock Markets. Next Quarter Could Be More Terrifying and 5 Other Things to Know Today.
At the end of the first quarter, the S&P 500 is reeling—don’t expect a March Madness-style comeback soon.
The benchmark index is on track for its worst quarter since 2022, largely driven by concerns about President Donald Trump’s tariff policy, and trading continued to be dismal on the final day. Things could get worse—White House advisors are considering tariffs of up to 20% on virtually all U.S. trading partners, according to The Wall Street Journal.
There remains some hope in the market that Wednesday’s “Liberation Day” tariff announcement could mark a turning point by removing the uncertainty. If the Friday jobs report continues to show a broadly healthy labor market and Tesla defies fears about its delivery figures on Wednesday, maybe sentiment could improve.
That’s likely too optimistic. Trump’s tariffs will likely spark retaliation from other countries and it’s hard to judge where an escalating trade war will end. The probability of a U.S. recession in the next 12 months has risen to 35% from 20%, according to Goldman Sachs, which also forecasts a 5% fall in the S&P 500 over the next three months.
When can investors hope to see light at the end of the tunnel? Probably not until the latter part of the year when it should become clear what the new base level of tariffs will be and the focus could shift to Trump’s planned tax cuts. By that point, the Federal Reserve could well be cutting interest rates, with the possibility of steeper reductions in reaction to any tariff-induced economic weakness.
There is still hope for a turnaround but without a buzzer-beating reversal from Trump, the second quarter could be tough to watch.
Asian Markets: Stocks Sink as Trump’s Tariff Threats Weigh on Confidence Following are excerpts from
a current report in The New York Times:
Stocks in Japan tumbled nearly 4 percent as investors braced for a week of market turmoil caused by an expected announcement of more tariffs.
Stocks in Asia tumbled Monday as investors braced for a week of market tumult caused by an expected announcement of more tariffs by President Trump on America’s biggest trading partners.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 index fell nearly 4 percent in early trading. Stocks in South Korea and Taiwan were down more than 2 percent. Stocks in Hong Kong and mainland China were mostly unchanged, bolstered by a report signaling that China’s export-led industrial sector continues to expand despite Mr. Trump’s initial tariffs.
Futures on the S&P 500, which allow investors to trade the benchmark index before exchanges reopen in New York in the morning, slumped 0.5 percent on Sunday evening. On Friday, the S&P 500 dropped 2 percent on concerns about inflation and weak consumer sentiment.
Over the weekend, Mr. Trump ramped up the pressure, threatening so-called secondary sanctions on Russia if it does not engage in talks to bring about a cessation of fighting in Ukraine. The tactic echoes similar sanctions concerning Venezuela. He said last week that any country buying Venezuelan oil could face another 25 percent tariff on its imports to the United States.
The threats over the weekend add to tariffs of 25 percent on imported cars and some car parts set to be implemented this week, barring any last minute reprieve. That’s in addition to previously delayed tariffs on Mexico and Canada, as well as the potential for further retaliatory tariffs on other countries.
.
