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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • "Core" Bond Fund Replacement
    Max DD for QDSIX since inception is 4.45% as per PV unless @FD1000 you have info to the contrary.
  • Is the AI trade a speculative bubble waiting to unravel?
    Perhaps we should ask AI? Ahahah
    Key figures on AI's impact:
    -75% of S&P 500 gains: Since the launch of ChatGPT in November 2022, AI-related stocks drove 75% of the gains in the S&P 500, according to a September 2025 analysis by JPMorgan.
    -60% of 2025 market returns: In 2025, approximately 60% of market returns were attributed to AI-related stocks.
    -Dominance of the "Magnificent Seven": Much of this growth is tied to a handful of companies, including Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, NVIDIA, and Tesla.
    -Through the first three quarters of 2025, this group added $3.1 trillion in market capitalization.
    -Sector-specific outperformance: A Morningstar analysis showed that a basket of 38 AI stocks significantly outperformed the overall market in the third quarter of 2025, gaining 15.7% compared to the market's 7.7% return.
    I don't know about you guys, but I am not feeling any better after reading that! If true, this bubble has been forming for 3 years already. And is highly focused on the usual suspects.
  • "Core" Bond Fund Replacement
    DD is per month, not daily, and why it's not accurate.
    QDSIX is far from the bond category. It lost about 7-8% this year from peak to trough and in 2024.
    I would rather invest in QLEIX, it lost about the same in 2025, and 2024.
    In the last 3 years QLEIX made 128%...QDSIX only made 85%.
    Sharpe: QLEIX=2.8...QLEIX=1.2
    Both should not be compared to bonds.
    Earlier market tests do not guarantee future results. Many select only funds with many years of history and miss relatively great risk/reward in the last 3-6-12 months.
    That's fine; leave the small AUM for me and jump in after the best 3-5 years since inception. :-)
  • "Core" Bond Fund Replacement
    Here is the direct QDSIX to BND compare
    https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/fund-performance?s=y&sl=3hYp9dTgZx25fW564h0zrq
    Key take-aways
    CAGR of 12.59% vs. -0.43%
    MaxDD 4.45% vs. 17.54%
    Sortino 2.85 vs. -0.64
    Short story is that QDSIX has blown the lights out of BND across various time periods since inception in 2020 at significantly lower volatility.
  • "Core" Bond Fund Replacement
    @stayCalm. QDSIX? QDSIX? As a substitute for bonds ? Or as a substitute for money previously allocated to Certificates of Deposit as per the original poster? Anyway with a 5m mini I am not going to allocate 10% of my IRA to that particular fund.

    FYI, another share class, QDSNX, is available at Fidelity or at Vanguard, for example, as a NTF fund with a $2,500 initial minimum investment. Good luck.
  • Is the AI trade a speculative bubble waiting to unravel?
    I don’t know. Many are making a case for the affirmative. (Here’s one.) The problem is that you can be “right” and yet early by several years. So, often skeptics end up looking like idiots six months or a year later.
    I’ve been searching in vain for Vanguard’s warning to its investors about excessive valuations made in the late 90s. The most memorable line was: “… trees don’t grow to the sky.” It received a lot of attention across the investment community back then. The markets continued to soar. I did uncover Fed Chair Alan Greenspan’s famous “irrational exuberance” remark from December 1996. Market impact lasted for a day or two. For perspective on the then looming catastrophe, in less than a decade (1995-2002) the NASDAQ rose 600% and then lost 78% of its value. Thrills and chills.
    Aside - Can’t help wondering how Fed Chair Alan Greenspan might have dealt with the kind of attacks on him personally and on the institution we have witnessed recently. My bet is he wouldn’t have taken it lying down.
  • "Core" Bond Fund Replacement
    @Bitzer
    -
    - I would also consider APHPX as a solid bond sub
    As of 6-30-2025, Artisan Global Unconstrained Fund had a Yield to Worst of 11.83%. Its been very solid in it's short ~3 year life, but not yet firmly battle tested. Bought some this year, may add.
  • "Core" Bond Fund Replacement
    @stayCalm. QDSIX? QDSIX? As a substitute for bonds ? Or as a substitute for money previously allocated to Certificates of Deposit as per the original poster? Anyway with a 5m mini I am not going to allocate 10% of my IRA to that particular fund.
  • Is the AI trade a speculative bubble waiting to unravel?
    AI for hard science may lead once we are far (years) past trough of standard hype cycle.
    experts disillusioned elsewhere (e.g., toxic media,defense,finance) join Applied Minds and such companies.
    as for current bubble , see nobel prize skeptic from mit, and this :
    https://slate.com/podcasts/what-next-tbd/2025/09/artificial-intelligence-isnt-a-viable-business-but-investors-are-acting-like-it-is
  • Barron’s Funds Quarterly+ (2025/Q3–October 6, 2025)
    Barron’s Funds Quarterly+ (2025/Q3–October 6, 2025)
    https://www.barrons.com/topics/mutual-funds-quarterly
    (Performance data quoted in this Supplement are for 2025/Q3 and YTD to 9/30/25)
    Stocks of FUND ASSET MANAGERs have languished: BlackRock (BLK; yield 1.8%; fwd P/E 23.6; #1 by AUM), Invesco (IVZ; yield 3.7%; fwd P/E 10.9), T Rowe Price (TROW; yield 5.0%; fwd P/E 10.6); Franklin/BEN is mentioned; private Vanguard is also mentioned and it now has 50% of the fund industry assets (excluding money-market funds). The fund industry is changing and growing overall. The most problematic are active mutual funds/OEFs but the mutual fund category (passive and active) hasn’t been growing. Mutual funds flourished during the baby-boomers era but now they are in retirement-decumulation phase.
    New growth is in ETFs/ETPs, ETF classes of funds, retirement TDFs (soon to include alternatives), interval-funds (IFs), alternatives (cryptos, private-equity/credit) (other developments have been in CITs and guaranteed-income options within 401k that involve partnerships between fund firms and insurers). These listed asset managers are also adjusting to this new environment and should do well long-term. Goldman Sachs/GS is investing $1 billion in TROW to develop Price TDFs with some GS alternatives.
    QUARTERLY REVIEW. WINNER – gold-miners. High gold prices finally kicked into the bottom lines of gold-miners and they have rallied furiously. Mentioned are gold-miners GDX, GDXJ, SGGDX, OPGSX; gold-bullion GLD; silver-miners SLV (gold:silver ratio recently peaked at 105 in 04/2025 and is currently around 82).
    RUNNER-Ups – China region funds and digital assets (cryptos). In a boost to cryptos, stablecoins became mainstream through GENIUS Act.
    Ironically, many mainstream investors stayed away from these highflying categories. Among the traditional fund categories, the best was large-cap-growth. LC-blend SP500 easily outperformed bonds. Inflows into ETFs (passive, active) were strong. Outflows from OEFs continued. But some unusual observations: (i) strong inflows into money-market funds despite the expectations of lower rates (maybe the investors were derisking a bit), (ii) outflows from small-caps despite strong performance (investors getting out after years of frustration?), and (iii) weak inflows into foreign funds despite their strong outperformance vs US funds (weak dollar added to the performance of foreign funds). So, there was euphoria, but not extreme euphoria. (By @LewisBraham at MFO)
    MFOP data for Q3 pending.
    Top 5 Categories, Q3
    image
    Bottom 5 Categories, Q3
    image
    LINKs: Quarterly Digest1 Digest2
    Accessible from Mutual Fund Observer (MFO).
  • WealthTrack Show
    Oct 3rd Episode:
    Part 2
    While the number of publicly traded companies in the U.S. is shrinking, the opposite is happening overseas. Artisan International Fund’s award-winning portfolio manager, Mark Yockey, is finding more opportunities than ever in expanding foreign markets.


  • Vanguard Nudging Customers To Be Better Investors
    I saw a video on TQQQ - since inception in 2010 has returned 42%. Just a little nudge…just wait till it drops 75% then go in.
  • The Week in Charts | Charlie Bilello
    The Week in Charts (10/03/25)
    The most important charts and themes in markets and investing...
    00:00 Intro
    00:21 Topics
    01:21 Markets Are Partying Like It's 1999
    08:48 Government Shutdown Won't Stop Spending Spree
    16:41 Tesla's Turnaround
    18:34 Cooling Labor Market Continues
    24:56 Do Home Prices Always Go Up?
    29:03 Microsoft: a Safer Credit Than the US Government
    31:28 The Egg Price Crash No One Is Talking About
    Video
    Blog
  • Is the AI trade a speculative bubble waiting to unravel?
    To begin with, I look at all of the money being spent on data centers, and then I recall all of the money spent on rolling out fiber before the dot.com bust. It wasn't just pets.com that blew up.
    I wouldn't put new money into a fund like GRID, or any of the utes, at this time. If you're just now buying Seagate and Western Digital, well, I would stay close to the door. I'm old enough to remember the last time they boomed.
    After that, I think people need to look hard at what they expect AI to do. Those with rosier projection might consider recent comments by Thomas Wolf if they are interested in contrary points of view. Here's one link. And here's another.
  • Is the AI trade a speculative bubble waiting to unravel?
    Some of this has been mentioned in other threads here. What is somewhat surprising to me is how many are all starting to speak up. So, I thought this might deserve its own thread.
    https://www.cnbc.com/2025/10/03/goldman-sachs-ceo-david-solomon-warns-stock-market-drawdown-is-coming.html
    -Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon said AI presented opportunities but that some investors were overlooking “things you should be skeptical about.”
    -Speaking at Italian Tech Week in Turin, Italy, he said a “drawdown” was likely to hit stock markets in the coming two years.
    -“I think that there will be a lot of capital that’s deployed that will turn out to not deliver returns,” he said.
    “I wouldn’t be surprised if in the next 12 to 24 months, we see a drawdown with respect to equity markets ...and when that happens, people won’t feel good.”
    Amazon founder Jeff Bezos said Friday that artificial intelligence is currently in an “industrial bubble.”
    Karim Moussalem, chief investment officer of equities at Selwood Asset Management, meanwhile, warned of “enormous risks” on the horizon for the AI trade which could rapidly unravel. “The AI trade is beginning to resemble one of the great speculative manias of market history,”
    Veteran investor Leon Cooperman told CNBC that we are in the late innings of a bull market where bubbles can form — something Warren Buffett had warned about.
    Most believe there is money to be made, but that the euphoria may be overblown.
  • This Day in Markets History
    From Markets A.M. newsletter by Telis Demos.
    On this day in 1913, President Woodrow Wilson enshrined into law a federal income tax,
    less than 20 years after it was declared unconstitutional by the U.S. Supreme Court.
    He signed the act after 9 p.m. to prevent anyone from hiding assets during that day's business hours.
    The tax kicked in at 1% of all earned income over $2,500 for single taxpayers
    and $3,333.35 for married couples.
    Note: President Wilson was rightfully concerned about tax evasion in 1913.
    Today, very wealthy individuals — with the assistance of shrewd tax attorneys and cunning accountants —
    can take advantage of tax loopholes to avoid paying much (on a percentage basis) in taxes.
  • Wasatch International Small Cap Value & Wasatch Global Small Cap Value funds - now available
    Excellent! I am in.
    Both funds are already available on intermediary platforms.
    Schwab: Investor Class NTF @ $1 min / Institutional Class $49.95 fee @ $1 min
    Fidelity: Investor Class NTF @ $2K min / Institutional Class $49.95 fee @ $100K min