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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Minimum Volatility ETFs Failing Again?
    VMVFX grabbed my attention in 2019.
    The fund generated category-beating 5 Yr trailing returns with considerably less volatility.
    The relative performance for VMVFX deteriorated from 2019-2021.
    Like most factor funds, minimum volatility funds will periodically underperform relevant indexes.
    I prefer funds which include dividend growth stocks or wide-moat stocks to somewhat dampen volatility.
  • Giroux selling energy / value stocks. “We have really fundamentally changed…” WSJ
    here are the top holdings of PRWCX as of 2/28/22. I believe that BD is the only new company in the top 10. So if he's making changes in the portfolio its outside the top 10. Alphabet's % of the overall portfolio has decreased.
    Top 10 Holdings (02/28/2022)
    Data as of:
    02/28/2022
    Holding Name
    % of Fund
    Microsoft--6.55%
    Amazon.com--5.76%
    GE -- 4.67%
    Alphabet --3.97%
    Yum! Brands-- 3.16%
    Thermo Fisher Scientific-- 2.99%
    Humana-- 2.54%
    PerkinElmer-- 2.46%
    Becton, Dickinson & Company-- 2.34%
    PNC Financial Services Group-- 2.32%
  • TMSRX
    @hank, Looks like TMSRX popped today. The first up day in a month(?) Hmm, what changed? :)
    Seriously, there may be better alt funds than TMSRX, but I'm not all that dissatisfied YTD. I hold a few alternative funds as a hedge against equity holdings, in lieu of bonds actually, and in that perspective TMSRX is doing well as measured by the S&P 500.
    One alternative fund I bought last fall in my 401k was REMIX. I had a rude awaking with it in November through January, but since it's January low it's up ~11%. More roller-coaster than I like but I'll give it a year or so to play out.
  • Minimum Volatility ETFs Failing Again?
    In highly volatile markets, minimum volatility ETFs end up on the wrong side, or rebalance inappropriately. If it was a fluke in 2020, well, it is happening again. Of course, they are not adjusting in real-time, so this is understandable, but their names sound more reassuring.
    Shorter-term YTD view from Stockcharts, LINK1
    Longer-term 3-Yr view from PV, LINK2
  • 2022 YTD Damage
    YTD damage continues getting worse (change time to YTD in the link below if it defaults to 1 Yr). https://stockcharts.com/h-perf/ui?s=$SPX&compare=$COMPQ,$INDU,$TRAN,IWM&id=p05528334466
    Terrible sounding death-cross (50-dMA crossing 200-dMA on downswing) was noted for Nasdaq Comp about 3 weeks ago, in mid-February (it had happened to R2000/IWM in mid-January). One may have thought then whether the other indexes will follow, or will pull up R2000 and Nasdaq Comp. We now have a partial answer. DJIA/$INDU also has a death-cross and SP500/$SPX may follow in about a week. Surprisingly, it may happen to very cyclical DJ Transports/$TRAN in 2 weeks, or not. It is not in the cards for DJ Utilities/$UTIL - strength in it belies the talk of the coming rate hikes, starting next week. So, the market has several cross-currents. Of course, the disastrous Russia-Ukraine situation remains very fluid too with news changing by the day, sometimes by the hour.
  • Alternate energy area having a POP, at this time
    For an additional perspective on alternative electrical power sources take a look at this post. I really like the concept.
  • Someday soon a car could power your home, say PG&E, Ford and General Motors
    I'm not sure how or if THIS LINK will work for non-subscribers to the SF Chronicle, but the news article content is fascinating to me, and I'd like to share it if possible.
    Some excerpts:
    The automobile could become an unlikely crucial new backstop for keeping the lights on in an era of more frequent wildfires, hotter heat waves and aging power infrastructure in California.
    Pacific Gas and Electric Co. and General Motors announced Tuesday that the companies are in the early stages of developing a system for people to electrify their homes using vehicle batteries — it’s the latest corporate collaboration exploring this new use for the largest battery most people own. And it could minimize power disruptions from rolling blackouts or emergency shutoffs during dangerous weather.
    Last year, Ford Motor Co. and San Francisco-based solar installer Sunrun announced the debut of an all-electric pickup capable of electrifying a house. Scheduled to be available later this year, the Ford F-150 Lightning is advertised as being able to provide power to a home for up to three days on a fully charged battery, or longer if power is rationed.
    The idea for using electric vehicles as emergency power sources first came about in Japan during the nuclear disaster of 2011, when an earthquake and tsunami caused a meltdown at Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant. With communities turned to rubble, gasoline became scarce, but electric cars were crucial for moving emergency responders, refugees and supplies.
    Japaneses automakers soon after began manufacturing electric vehicles with two-way charging systems capable of stepping in during emergency power outages,but that technology hasn’t yet reached United States consumers.
    Most electric vehicles already have the capacity to be sources of power, said Rick Spina, General Motors’ vice president of electric vehicle infrastructure. What’s needed is further development of battery software and hardware to bring that power into the home.
    The system the company is developing will include safeguards so people can control the outflow and ensure the battery retains enough of a charge so they can drive a certain amount of miles. That could be essential during an emergency, Spina said.
    Vehicle batteries could become a linchpin for solar power during emergencies, said James Bushnell, an energy economist at UC Davis.
  • Some Top funds over 10 years with YTD to 3/7/22 returns
    (To see what I did, "quote" this post; that will show you the HTML.)
    https://ibb.co/DVX5yDM
    image
    Name				 Ticker	  %TR YTD   %TR 5 Year   %TR 10 Year
    William Blair Large Cap Growth I LCGFX -21.08 19.62 16.55
    Akre Focus Retail AKREX -18.4 16.49 15.23
    Jensen Quality Growth J JENSX -12.88 15.57 14.59
    Parnassus Core Equity Investor PRBLX -11.95 14.79 14.42
    Vanguard 500 Index Investor VFINX -11.65 14.05 14.08
    Vanguard Health Care Inv VGHCX -9.13 9.59 13.84
    Conestoga Small Cap Investors CCASX -18.81 14.2 13.59
    Grandeur Peak Global Opp Inv GPGOX -22.38 13.17 12.94
    Mairs & Power Small Cap MSCFX -10.37 7.86 12.41
    T. Rowe Price Capital App PRWCX -7.79 12.25 12.16
    T. Rowe Price Mid-Cap Value TRMCX -1.1 9.49 12.06
    Wedgewood Retail RWGFX -19.05 14.82 12.04
    Artisan Small Cap Investor ARTSX -26.13 12.73 11.89
    AMG Yacktman Focused N YAFFX -5.99 12.17 11.59
    AMG Yacktman I YACKX -5.55 12 11.54
    Manning & Napier Disc Value I MNDFX -5.1 10.6 11.42
    Meridian Growth Legacy MERDX -15.53 11.6 11.3
    T. Rowe Price Small-Cap Value PRSVX -11.01 9.61 11.11
    Amana Income Investor AMANX -11.49 10.97 11.03
    Walthausen Small Cap Value WSCVX -7.27 7.06 10.32
    Osterweis OSTFX -13.03 11.42 10.31
    Fidelity Advisor® Small Cap I FSCIX -16.18 9.97 10.07
    FPA Queens Road Small Cap Value QRSVX -6.81 9.64 9.68
    Fairholme FAIRX 4.21 10.44 9.44
    Vanguard Balanced Index Inv VBINX -9.02 9.39 9.24
    Auxier Focus Inv AUXFX -5.04 9.24 9.23
    Janus Henderson Small Cap Val T JSCVX -7.67 5.1 8.66
    Oakmark Equity And Income Inv OAKBX -6.33 8.2 8.46
    Artisan International Value Inv ARTKX -10.86 6.98 8.35
    DCM/INNOVA High Eq Inc Innovt TILDX -12.74 7.52 7.98
    FPA Crescent FPACX -8.32 6.96 7.96
  • Some Top funds over 10 years with YTD to 3/7/22 returns
    image
    I put this link in src="link" but doesn't work. The link works, so can someone help me out?
    https://ibb.co/DVX5yDM
  • Some Top funds over 10 years with YTD to 3/7/22 returns
    Need to fix formatting.
    Standouts are
    Name Ticker "%TR YTD" "% TR 5 Year" "%TR 10 Year"
    T. Rowe Price Capital Appreciation PRWCX -7.79 12.25 12.16
    T. Rowe Price Mid-Cap Value TRMCX -1.1 9.49 12.06
    Vanguard Health Care Inv VGHCX -9.13 9.59 13.84
    AMG Yacktman Focused N YAFFX -5.99 12.17 11.59
    AMG Yacktman I YACKX -5.55 12 11.54
    Manning & Napier Disciplined Value I MNDFX -5.1 10.6 11.42
  • Some Top funds over 10 years with YTD to 3/7/22 returns

    Name Ticker "%TR YTD" "% TR 5 Year" "%TR 10 Year"
    William Blair Large Cap Growth I LCGFX -21.08 19.62 16.55
    Akre Focus Retail AKREX -18.4 16.49 15.23
    Jensen Quality Growth J JENSX -12.88 15.57 14.59
    Parnassus Core Equity Investor PRBLX -11.95 14.79 14.42
    Vanguard 500 Index Investor VFINX -11.65 14.05 14.08
    Vanguard Health Care Inv VGHCX -9.13 9.59 13.84
    Conestoga Small Cap Investors CCASX -18.81 14.2 13.59
    Grandeur Peak Global Opportunities InvGPGOX -22.38 13.17 12.94
    Mairs & Power Small Cap MSCFX -10.37 7.86 12.41
    T. Rowe Price Capital Appreciation PRWCX -7.79 12.25 12.16
    T. Rowe Price Mid-Cap Value TRMCX -1.1 9.49 12.06
    Wedgewood Retail RWGFX -19.05 14.82 12.04
    Artisan Small Cap Investor ARTSX -26.13 12.73 11.89
    AMG Yacktman Focused N YAFFX -5.99 12.17 11.59
    AMG Yacktman I YACKX -5.55 12 11.54
    Manning & Napier Disciplined Value I MNDFX -5.1 10.6 11.42
    Meridian Growth Legacy MERDX -15.53 11.6 11.3
    T. Rowe Price Small-Cap Value PRSVX -11.01 9.61 11.11
    Amana Income Investor AMANX -11.49 10.97 11.03
    Walthausen Small Cap Value WSCVX -7.27 7.06 10.32
    Osterweis OSTFX -13.03 11.42 10.31
    Fidelity Advisor® Small Cap I FSCIX -16.18 9.97 10.07
    FPA Queens Road Small Cap Value QRSVX -6.81 9.64 9.68
    Fairholme FAIRX 4.21 10.44 9.44
    Vanguard Balanced Index Inv VBINX -9.02 9.39 9.24
    Auxier Focus Inv AUXFX -5.04 9.24 9.23
    Janus Henderson Small Cap Value T JSCVX -7.67 5.1 8.66
    Oakmark Equity And Income Investor OAKBX -6.33 8.2 8.46
    Artisan International Value Investor ARTKX -10.86 6.98 8.35
    DCM/INNOVA High Eq Inc Innovt TILDX -12.74 7.52 7.98
    FPA Crescent FPACX -8.32 6.96 7.96
  • Oil touches $139 / barrel in overnight trading
    Hybrid vehicles have improved considerably in the last 15 years. They are now in the 5th or 6th generation with improved battery life and reliability. My neighbor has a Prius that gets over 40 miles per gallon on average and it is so quite while operating. Once the chip shortage is solved, the pricing will return to normal.
    I suppose so, but my '08 Prius (bought '07) has been unimaginably reliable from day 1, and I am hardly alone. Never had a car like it except for four somewhat newer Priuses; no repairs other than the routine maintenance. 45mpg and all that, down from 55 a while ago. Just an amazing ownership experience.
  • TMSRX
    Hi @hank
    Thanks for this note. I'm attempting to envision a "decision making" meeting with the criteria put forth.
    Kinda like going to the store for the 6 items one needs to make a very nice 5 quart pot of chili and buying 12 items, hoping the chili will be better this time.
    “The strategies currently available to the managers include Macro and Absolute Return; Fixed Income Absolute Return; Equity Research Long/Short; Quantitative Equity Long/Short; Volatility Relative Value; Style Premia; Dynamic Global FX; Dynamic Credit; and Global Stock. Mr. Hubrich explains that “there is a spectrum, where on one end you have strategies (like Style Premia) that are ‘born’ as absolute return strategies and require no additional hedging at all, while on the other end you have strategies (like global stock) where a traditional long-only investment is paired with an explicit, meaningful hedge.” While the constellation of strategies included in the portfolio changes with evolving market conditions, the goal remains to provide an absolute return portfolio throughout.”
    Remain curious,
    Catch
  • TMSRX
    DS:
    The purpose of MSTR [[ in-house synonym: 'MSTR seeks to invest in “non-market sources of return,” that is, returns that can be delivered whether the market rises or not. That’s possible by choosing investments that are intrinsically uncorrelated ... ' ]] is to diversify your portfolio, not be your portfolio. Many investors overdiversify, adding one stock (or bond) fund after another with each new addition adding less and less to the robustness of the entire portfolio. At base, investors just add more exposure to the same sets of risks and the same return drivers. MSTR diversifies by tapping into other sources of alpha which is reflected in its relatively low correlation to the S&P 500 (0.58), very low correlation to the bond market (0.16), and low downside capture ratio (0.12) against the S&P 500.

    Investors looking for a way out of high levels of volatility and inconsistent returns should add T. Rowe Price Multi-Strategy Total Return to their due-diligence list, just as many investment professionals at Price itself seem to have done.

    By way of full disclosure: I reallocated a substantial fraction of my retirement investments to TMSRX in May 2020 and disclosed that allocation in our June 2020 issue.

    underlining added
    Wonder if DS has bailed too.
  • TMSRX
    “The strategies currently available to the managers include Macro and Absolute Return; Fixed Income Absolute Return; Equity Research Long/Short; Quantitative Equity Long/Short; Volatility Relative Value; Style Premia; Dynamic Global FX; Dynamic Credit; and Global Stock. Mr. Hubrich explains that “there is a spectrum, where on one end you have strategies (like Style Premia) that are ‘born’ as absolute return strategies and require no additional hedging at all, while on the other end you have strategies (like global stock) where a traditional long-only investment is paired with an explicit, meaningful hedge.” While the constellation of strategies included in the portfolio changes with evolving market conditions, the goal remains to provide an absolute return portfolio throughout.”
    https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/2020/07/t-rowe-price-multi-strategy-total-return-tmsrx/
    I’ve been under the (possibly mistaken) impression that each strategy had / has its own management team doing research, analysis and making decisions. From the quoted passage by Dr. Snowball it appears the 2 managers may be attempting to implement the 5-7 different investment strategies. (No wonder they’re having problems.) I did attempt to phone them twice. Both times resulted hold times in excess of 20 minutes after which I gave up.
    Since I’m in the process of selling this fund, I’ll leave it to those who remain behind to continue the thread. No point in beating a dead horse.
  • Oil touches $139 / barrel in overnight trading
    image
    6300 California Street in San Francisco. No comment necessary.
  • TMSRX
    >> the 5-manager setup that’s partially to blame. Perhaps there’s little coordination among the competing members? And (just a guess) they’re probably relatively inexperienced people.
    You really think these are plausible conditions in a shop like TRP?
    But are we looking at the same fund?
    https://www.troweprice.com/financial-intermediary/us/en/investments/mutual-funds/us-products/multi-strategy-total-return-fund.html
    15y and 16y at TRP. One a division director of research. "Just a guess." Not finding the other three managers. M* also lists 2 guys.
    ... highly flexible investment approach in an effort to provide strong risk-adjusted returns, pursue positive returns through various market environments, and maintain low overall volatility. The fund has broad discretion in seeking investments and utilizes a wide range of strategies ...
    Highly flexible with broad discretion. Lots bonds and cash (~89%) w stock tweaking, at a glance, which evidently accounts for the benchmark.
    Wacko Equity / FI year-end holdings lists, w problematic headers and categorizations.
    >> Maybe somebody should call them?
    Sure, go for it; they can declaim the webpage subsections over the phone.
  • Oil touches $139 / barrel in overnight trading
    Warren Buffett says never to hold money during a war. Here’s a stagflation playbook for stocks... https://www.marketwatch.com/story/warren-buffett-says-never-to-hold-money-during-a-war-heres-a-stagflation-playbook-for-stocks-11646655287
    Interesting in this same article is some commentary on the oil situation visa via Russia ... JavierBlas tweets "The current half-hearted talks on Russia energy ban is a win for the Kremlin..."
    But the gist of the story is: "“The one thing you can be quite sure of is if we went into some very major war, the value of money would go down — that’s happened in virtually every war that I’m aware of. The last thing you’d want to do is hold money during a war,” he said.
    Buffett bought his first stock in 1942, when “macro factors were not looking good,” but insisted investors would frankly “be a lot better owning productive assets over the next 50 years” than pieces of paper."
    In a subsequent MarketWatch story: https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/berkshire-hathaway-tesla-market-cap-value-51646661852 = To answer @Mark question... Warren generally wins these.
  • European equities getting clocked today …
    friends say capitulation / could be as bad as 2008 or 2001 bubble+9.11.
    Futures bright red - bloody
    EU NASDAQ + EEM bears
    SP500 DJI follow soon
    probably holding patterns for 2-6 wks now/no buying
    Prob keep holding big vehicles sp500 dji etf/soxl spxl +20s% bonds for short /medium terms