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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • When Secular Trends Reverse…and Economic Time Bombs
    What worked yesterday may not work going forward, until it does again, We invest in cycles and cycles trend up and down.
    The most significant investing trends over the last 10 years can be summarized as follows…
    1. Large Caps over Small Caps.
    2. US over International.
    3. Growth over Value.
    4. Tech over Everything.
    5. Long Duration over Short Duration (Yields Falling, Curve Flattening).
    6. Stocks over Commodities.
    7. When Covid-19 first hit the US last February and March, all of these pre-existing trends accelerated.
    when-secular-trends-reverse/
  • Degree of Attribution of the "Robinhood" Investor to Market Advances (and Future Corrections)
    Here's some insight on the topic, albeit a bit dated from 08/2020.
    https://www.investors.com/news/robinhood-investors-charging-into-stock-investing-what-could-go-wrong/
    And some 2020 stats that another more learned poster may add some color to:
    https://www.businessofapps.com/data/robinhood-statistics/
    Excerpt;
    Robinhood Total Transactions
    2015 $500 million
    2017 $50 billion
    2018 $100 billion
    2019 $150 billion
  • Large Cap/All Cap dividend investing, need input
    @Crash I think you may be correct... Bonds may just be poison. I'm looking at my FUAMX , FXNAX , FNBGX and wondering what the future holds. I don't like making changes either but what does the next 2-3 years mean for bonds? It seems like foul weather ahead.
    I'm still 55% bonds, in retirement, and wanting to reduce risk and volatility. Though I'm still re-investing the monthly dividends, I'm glad to see that income show up at the end of each month. (Though my PTIAX pays in the middle of the month, after someone thought it would be a better idea.) 38% stocks is about enough for me. The Fund Managers of the funds in my portfolio together have me holding 8% in cash. I'm giddy to see days like today, even though I know I'm missing a chunk of the profits by holding all those bonds. The ballast feels comfortable when the Market drops, the way it did, last week. ..... So..... I'm sure you'll think this through to do the best thing in your own situation.
    I'm happy with my bond funds: PTIAX, PRSNX, RPSIX. I think I'd steer clear of anything specifically devoted to long term bonds right now. (FNBGX.) Those are all Fidelity funds. Maybe you're semi-married to Fidelity? The same way I'm rather married to TRP? I'm in my holdings DIRECTLY with the fund family, not using a brokerage. If you use a brokerage, that would make spreading out your stuff a lot easier than in my case.
    Anyhow, if you've got some years to go, wanting to grow rather than preserve, I'd create a meaningful position in small-caps. Just don't bet the farm. I own PRDSX and it's great. @TheShadow pointed out to me that it is open to new investors. I was mistaken.
    FOCSX (A Fidelity fund.) HASGX (Harbor, $50k minimum to get in.)
    Also, global: HGGIX (Harbor, again.) PRGSX (TRP Global.)
    ...Or a million others you might prefer. Zero interest rates and a big investment in bonds will not serve you well if you still have several years to go.
  • Own PRIDX? Morningstar contradiction... again. And AGAIN
    ...and right up through 5:00 p.m. (EST) the FOLLOWING day, the mistake persists, not updated. Uncorrected.
  • Firstrade Brokerage- A mutual fund buyers/sellers heaven -My Experience
    All MF's are NTF. No commission. I did not mention load. That is a separate item. In my account if you click on" research and tools", then click on mutual funds, a page appears where you choose( in small letters) the list you wish ,either load list, no load list or NTF funds. Clicking on the no load list brings up a page and at the bottom it notes there are 11090 funds on the list. My checks were free. My Fidelity and Firstrade checks both list UMB bank in Missouri. I did not look at the ATM cards.
    If purchasing TF funds at Fidelity for $5 is by first setting up the account for recurrent purchases on a timed basis and then discontinuing this, I prefer just buying NTF without the extra work. There is no secure e-mail that i know of.
    Again I have no connection to Firstrade. For those who are willing to deal with the negatives and fees are an issue with another company then this may be an option. I have had a good experience so far. Yours may be different. As I noted earlier, I buy load waived funds at Fidelity ,if need be. I think Fidelity is a great company and have had an account with them for at least 20 years. Due diligence as always before making any decisions.
  • ETF HNDL
    The high turnover appears to be more for making profit than protecting against loss. For example:
    A funds turnover ratio can vary and rise due to a plethora of causes. Pastor, Stambaugh, and Taylor (2016) suggest that turnover ratios are higher when the market environment falls within certain parameters. Their findings suggest that turnover ratios are higher in an environment where investor sentiment is high, stock volatility is high, and stock market liquidity is low. These market characteristics allow for more profitable opportunities for fund managers, as well as an increase in flows in to the funds as investor sentiment rises. These parameters are similar to that of the recovery period following the time period one which is the time period analyzed in the research by Li, Klein, and Zhao (2012) who find that the highest turnover ratios are found during the time following a financial crisis. Following a time when markets are severely down it is not unexpected that many old positions would be sold off in order to replace them with new more promising positions that arise as the market begins to see positive returns again.
    https://scholarsarchive.library.albany.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1013&context=honorscollege_finance
    SEC yield is based on the idea of constant yield to maturity. Think about a yield curve where 2 year bonds pay 2% to maturity and one year bonds pay 1%. If you buy a two year bond with 2% YTM, you're getting a total of 4% interest. After a year, the market says that it will pay 1% interest.
    The price adjusts accordingly though effectively you're getting 3% for that first year and 1% for the second year. If a fund continually buys two year bonds and sells them off after a year, it achieves a 3% yield. That comes at a cost. The average maturity of that fund is 1.5 years (bonds are all between one and two years from maturity). If the fund held the bonds to maturity, the fund's average maturity would be one year. Shorter maturity and less risk.
    Here's a brief paper explaining this phenomenon:
    https://www.northerntrust.com/documents/commentary/investment-commentary/maturity-bond-funds-vs-individual-bonds.pdf
  • Firstrade Brokerage- A mutual fund buyers/sellers heaven -My Experience
    I'll first reiterate that if there's a specific fund that you want, there's a good chance that Firstrade has it with no brokerage-charged commission and that it may have a lower min than one would find elsewhere.
    That said, there are a lot of other statements that seem to be misunderstandings or misleading; or I don't understand.
    Every MF on the platform is NTF.
    If NTF means "no commission", that's true. But if it means no fee including no load, that doesn't appear to be the case. (Note that load funds are generally commission-free everywhere even though you may still have to pay the load.)
    Consider Praxis Genesis Growth Fund. It has only one share class, MGAFX. When I log in to Firstrade, go to the customer fund screener, check Fund Family (Praxis), and check Load Type (Load), this fund along with a few others shows up. (It does not show up if I select no load instead of load to screen.)
    FWIW, it appears to be NTF (really NTF, i.e. load-waived) at TD Ameritrade.
    Firstrade does sell this fund: I go to my mutual fund trading page (from the "Trading" drop down, select "Mutual Funds") and enter MGAFX. It says that at Firstrade the fund has a $1K min and three day settlement. Since I closed my account years ago I can't actually test a trade.
    The site is quirky in that the M* info page shows the normal 50,000 minimum [for VWIAX] but on the buy ticket the minimums change to $500
    Same as for me, so that's evidence that I'm looking at the same page when looking up VWIAX or MGAFX. Note that if one enters VWELX or VWENX one sees that Wellington is not open to new investors at Firstrade. But if you could open VWENX at Firstrade, you'd only need $500.
    Old joke: Customer - the guy down the street is selling the same thing at half the price
    Shopkeeper - why don't you go down the street and buy it there?
    Customer - he doesn't have any left
    after becoming a customer and opening an account (no minimum) that number became 11,090 no load NTF funds when you are signed into the site and click on the no load fund list and they are all listed as such.
    Yet the customer screener shows "just" 9,903 no load share classes. In addition, it shows 6,316 load share classes. To borrow from Graeme Edge of the Moody Blues: which is right and which is an illusion?. Buffalo Springfield also comes to mind.
    I re-balance twice yearly. Also I prefer to reapportion monthly dividends/gains to positions of my own choice based on the economy, my current financial and tax situation or cash needs. Typically I would do about 40 buys/sells a year. At Fidelity about $800-1000/yr
    At Fidelity, I can add to a TF position for $5 and sell for $0. 20 buys and 20 sells would run me $100 bucks.
    I'm glad you mentioned tax situation. Fidelity has had online cost basis services - specific lot identification and changing default disposal method - down pat for decades. These days, most other brokerages make it easy as well. All I've found so far at Firstrade is: "Please contact your broker if you wish to change the default tax-relief method for your account or specify different tax lots for liquidation".
    https://www.firstrade.com/content/en-us/accounts/taxcenter/?h=costbasis
    Though few in number, Firstrade does have some nickel and dime fees. It charges $15 (or $50) for check printing. It doesn't appear to provide ATM rebates and charges 3% for foreign transactions after the first one each month. (BTW, Fidelity's debit card is provided by PNC bank, not UMB.)
    Lewis asked about security against hacking. A question worth thinking about considering that I was able to log in years after closing my account by just looking up my old login/passwd/pin in my home files. The system didn't suggest that I might want to change my password (no password aging).
    It doesn't seem to offer two factor authentication, though it claims that a PIN constitutes "an additional factor". It does not.
    there are three generally recognized factors for authentication: something you know (such as a password), something you have (such as a hardware token or cell phone), and something you are (such as your fingerprint). Two-factor means the system is using two of these options."
    https://www.pcmag.com/how-to/two-factor-authentication-who-has-it-and-how-to-set-it-up
    As near as I can tell, Firstrade doesn't provide secure email.
    https://www.firstrade.com/content/en-us/customerservice/contactus
    (The internal contact page has a different URL but the same info.)
    Firstrade does meet legal requirements on security but doesn't seem to go beyond that.
    We maintain physical, electronic, and procedural safeguards that comply with federal standards to guard your personal information. We protect your account information by placing it on the secure portion of our website and use industrial strength firewalls and encryption technology to protect personal information on our computer systems.
    https://www.firstrade.com/content/en-us/customerservice/onlinesecurity/onlineprotectionguarantee
    Note that SIPC insurance (or excess insurance) only kicks in when a brokerage is in financial trouble or filing bankruptcy. It doesn't cover run of the mill hacking or identity theft.
    Firstrade, as with other brokerages (e.g. Fidelity), guarantees to cover your direct losses. This guarantee "does not include any tax consequences, legal fees and expenses, or any consequential, lost opportunity, special, indirect, incidental, punitive, exemplary or non-monetary damages."
  • Will near ZERO rates drive the market higher ?
    The amount of federal debt held by the public totals more than $21 trillion, magnitudes above the $5.3 trillion debt carried by the country in the fourth quarter of 2008. Almost $4 trillion was added to the debt following the Trump administration’s efforts on the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act.
    But the former Fed chair commented that because of near-zero short-term interest rates, the total interest burden as a share of GDP is lower now than it was before the financial crisis in 2008.
    It looks t me , a fine line to walk .
    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/treasury-nominee-janet-yellen-outlines-priorities-under-biden-administration-185327249.html
    Stay Safe, Derf
  • Firstrade Brokerage- A mutual fund buyers/sellers heaven -My Experience
    If the ACH transfer is initiated before 1pm then the funds are available almost immediately, at least that has been my experience. If after 1pm the funds are available the next day. Why. I am not sure. Possibly it is based on the amount of assets in the account. It was a surprise to me, as I expected a 5 day wait according to their information on the site. I have only bought MF's so far. I use other brokerages for my ETF,s etc. so far.
  • Firstrade Brokerage- A mutual fund buyers/sellers heaven -My Experience
    Every MF on the platform is NTF. Also instead of VWINX I bought VWIAX the admiral share with a lower ER with a $500 minimum. Same with the other Vanguard admiral funds so far. The site is quirky in that the M* info page shows the normal 50,000 minimum but on the buy ticket the minimums change to $500. I also have a Vanguard acct that was switched from the MF account that I had for 20 years and find that Firstrade is much easier to use online.
  • Own PRIDX? Morningstar contradiction... again. And AGAIN
    Just a note to alert those concerned: PRIDX
    Using (premium!) Portfolio Manager, Morningstar STILL, at this hour, shows a loss per share today, 19th January, of 3 cents. But look instead at the "snapshot" view of the fund, and you'll see that the actual daily performance was +1.75%.
    (The lovely geniuses in charge stopped offering hard-currency amounts in that space, long ago. Percentage is offered, only.) .....MARKETWATCH shows the per share rise in actual dollars and cents to be +$1.61. And that info is available FOR FREE.
  • Firstrade Brokerage- A mutual fund buyers/sellers heaven -My Experience
    Schwab has some other perks that I like. The debit card issued with Investor Checking (its ludicrous to call it HY) has no foreign transaction fees and ACH transfer fees (nominally $25) from the brokerage account are waived. Just paid quarterly taxes electronically from the checking account, seamlessly. The service reps have been unfailingly helpful and knowledgeable; for the oldsters among us, speakers of standard English really help my comprehension. While I like CapitalOne for its credit card, I don’t like having to put all my effort into listening carefully to reps who struggle with the language. (I used to profess French lit, so I have some expertise in language; the curmudgeon in me does come out, nevertheless.)
  • Mutual fund SVARX
    I would like to know how I can find out how much leverage is used in a fund. I use the Schwab platform. Tkx!
    Knowing already that it's highly leveraged--- according to this thread (SVARX), I see what Morningstar offers in terms of examining what's in the fund's portfolio. Under "other," there's a BIG chunk of stuff. It seems to me that "other" ought to be a catch-all for a small portion of miscellaneous stuff that can't be accounted for, otherwise. But SVARX shows 38.14% in "Other." weird. It's a backdoor way of seeing it. But I suppose that is what's going on there.
  • Small Caps
    IJR tracks the S&P 600 index. VTMSX is an actively managed fund which tracks the same index while attempting to minimize taxable gains.
    VSMAX tracks the CRSP U.S. Small Cap Index.
    It has more holdings and a higher median market cap than S&P 600 index funds.
    FSMAX tracks the Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market Index and VEXAX tracks the S&P Completion Index. Both of these extended market funds are designed to complement an S&P 500 index fund.
    These mid-cap funds have more holdings and higher median market caps compared to VSMAX.
    I would avoid funds which track the Russell 2000 index due to this index's inferior design.
  • Some questions on Emerging market funds ?
    Thanks All for the comments and suggestions . @BewnWP &@AndyJ > I was cautious about the Mathews fund due to the recent departures of fund managers. I definitely understand EM is inherently more risky, exactly why I was concentrating on the MAxDD and time to recovery . I am risk averse by nature and willing to give up some upside capture if it mitigates downside. Weirdly on Schwab the portfolio detail has 85 of japan in FSEAX .
  • Mutual fund SVARX
    I would like to know how I can find out how much leverage is used in a fund. I use the Schwab platform. Tkx!
    The above will not show you how much and how long leveraged was used over the years. The managers can change it anytime.
    I found the semi-annual report for SVARX (link) from 3/31/2020 and more than 50% is in treasury bills, mutual funds about 30%, MM at 13.8%(maybe used for leverage).
    What was the leverage 3-6-12 months prior at any time? no way to know