10-Year CDs @ 4% On the Schwab CD quote page, under New Issues, they organize the CDs by term (1 month, 3 month, 6 month, 9 month, 1 year, 18 months, 2 years........), and the listings are only for FDIC insured banks. For each Bank listed, they then give a clear statement of the coupon interest rate it is paying, the frequency of interest rate payments, and what the Maturity date is for the CD. Again, I discussed all of these details in conference calls with Schwab representatives, and the subject of my call was to ensure there is no difference between CDs you buy directly from a bank, compared to CDs you buy from the banks through the brokerage. I am confident that that information is correct. However, I did not do additional extensive research on each bank to determine if they are "financially shaky banks", to use your terminology. I will say that your statement above, about Brokered CDs fluctuating in value according to bid/ask is accurate, and in my conference calls with Schwab, they did not acknowledge that difference from CDs offered directly from banks. When I monitored my CDs in my account, I did see those daily values changing very frequently, and that was a surprise to me. I called my regional Schwab representative back, she acknowledged that "they could have done a better job with that aspect of the description brokerage CDs", but she then connected me with the CD office at Schwab, who assured me that those fluctuating daily values are "just paper values", and if I held those CDs to maturity, I would get all the coupon interest accurately quoted on their CD brokerage page, and on the maturity date I would have CD amount distributed back into my account cash account. I do believe that there are some differences in the penalties, for early selling of the CDs, between brokerage bought CDs and Banks, so you need to be fully aware of those penalty differences if you have any plans on doing that.
NY Fed Sees 80% Probability of Hard Landing From Today’s WSJ:
The U.S. economy is very likely on a path to shrink this year and next, a Federal Reserve Bank of New York report said on Friday. According to how the New York Fed models the economy’s path, the report said that “the chances of a hard landing…as occurred during the 1990 recession are about 80%,” while the probability of a “soft landing,” in which gross domestic product essentially remains positive over the next 10 quarters, is 10%.
* The ellipsis marks reflect editing by the WSJ and not by me.
10-Year CDs @ 4% ADVANCE to the
12:00 minute mark for a brief lesson on how “rainy day” time deposit withdrawals work.
10-Year CDs @ 4% @yogibearbull : The CD I bought at Schwab starts on 6/22 - ends7/22. I take it Chuck is using the money as "float". Could this be instead of the bank paying a fee ? CD was purchased about
10 days ago.
Thanks YBB, Derf
10-Year CDs @ 4% Fido is showing their current CD ladders as follows:
1 yr = 2.14%
2 yr = 2.75%
5 yr = 3.14%
When you click on these "CD ladders" at Fido, you may end up with some questionable CD issuers.
Their FZDXX money market fund is giving .86% (7 day yield).
10-Year CDs @ 4% Yup, Bought 1 month CD @ 1% at Chuck's place. I'll wait for the next rate increase to see if I will buy another month or go longer.
Differ strokes for differ folks, Derf
10-Year CDs @ 4% Schwab is offering a 2 year CD at 3.10%, a 18 month CD at 2.7%, 12 month at 2.65%, 9 monrh at 2.1%, and 3 month at 1.8%. It takes a minimum of $10,000 for a CD. I am expecting these rates to increase substantially during the last half of 2022. Longer term CDs do not interest me.
10-Year CDs @ 4% Local CU here (Hickam FCU, Oahu) offers 0.85% interest rate on a 60-month CD. And to get that, you must tie-up $200k. That's just a bad joke. Navy FCU--- my other one--- wants you to let them hold your money for SEVEN years in order to get 3.15% from them. No, thanks.
10-Year CDs @ 4% Everyone will put their on spin and expectations on this bear market, strong probability of becoming a recession. For me, I am 74, and 9 years into retirement. My focus is to preserve my accumulated assets, and to do my best to make a positive return in this tough market. I exited the market several months, with a slight YTD loss--less than 1% and have been in money market funds. I am now adding shorter term CDs to my portfolio, to ensure I will finish with a positive total return by year end. My focus is on 6 to 9 month CDs, which have been going up in interest return in the past month. I am expecting shorter term CD interest rates to rise significantly by the end of the year--if I am correct, I will look at some laddering for 2023, but if I am wrong and this bear market/possible recession is shorter than I have predicted, then hopefully I can catch some of the rebound and maybe more stability in investing. My current, imperfect opinion, is that 2022 will not improve for the remainder of the year, and 2023 will not start off well--I may very well be wrong, but I think the Feds will continue raising interest rates to try to beat down inflation, oil supply will struggle for the rest of the year, and we will start seeing unemployment creep up. All in all, I would prefer the safety of CDs until I see more positive signs that this bear market is over.
Looking for TCHP ….. @hank, may be edit the Subject to fix the ticker. Thanks.
BTW, bid-ask displayed over the weekends (or, when the markets are not open) are stub/fake quotes, not real at all.
Yes. I took a screen shot when I did a test buy today. It shows: Bid $
14.45X2 and Ask $000.X0 with volume of
117,543. So figured something was off.
Bloomberg Wall Street Week There’s an extensive interview with Summers in Barron’s this week. He reiterates and expands upon the same points of view voiced on the show. I also record the show.
What I enjoyed most on the most recent program was the brief 1971 clip of a youthful Louis Rukeyser pointing out the track of the Dow Jones over the previous 5 sessions. It appears that back than more importance was attached to the Dow than other indexes.
Importance of Consecutive 90% Down Days ???? While the fwd P/E for small-cap (SC) R2000 has dropped dramatically, R2000 has many unprofitable companies (30-40% ?). Looking at more selective SP MC 400 and SP SC 600, those fwd P/Es have also dropped dramatically. See these charts by Yardeni via a Twitter post,
https://twitter.com/ayeshatariq/status/1538469641722413062
The Russell 2000 is a flawed benchmark.
As was mentioned, it includes many unprofitable companies since it doesn't screen for profitability.
Also, the Russell 2000 index reconstitution process enables front-running.
The S&P 600 is a better small-cap index.
Barron’s likes asset managers @Observant1. It worked! No pop-up message, either. Maybe my ad-blocker did that?
Glad it worked for you!
Importance of Consecutive 90% Down Days ???? “More than 90% of stocks in the S&P 500 declined today.
It’s the 5th time in the past 7 days.
Since 1928, there have been exactly 0 precedents.
This is the most overwhelming display of selling in history.”
I don't know the significance of this particular event.
Looking at the broader picture, it appears that market volatility will be high in the coming months.
An extended period of low inflation and "easy" money is behind us.
The Federal Reserve is aggressively raising the Fed funds rate and has implemented quantitative tightening. There are several current, influential events - Ukraine war, COVID-19, supply chain issues - where the final outcome is unknown.
Barron’s likes asset managers @Observant1. It worked! No pop-up message, either. Maybe my ad-blocker did that?
