More RED this morning #2 Notes from FOMC releases & Powell's press conference:Rate hikes will start soon (March). The fed fund rate will become the primary tool of Fed monetary policy. Expected will be gradual +0.2
5% rate hikes, but +0.
50% hikes were not ruled out.
The QEs will be reduced in February & should end in early-March.
The Fed balance sheet reductions will start (around mid-year) after the rate hikes begin (in March) & will run in the background. The MBS will be gone faster & entirely at some point. The balance sheet will shrink substantially to a level needed for Fed operations.
The labor market is very strong. The current inflation is also very high but is expected to decline. People on fixed-income are affected more by high inflation. Less fiscal stimulus is expected. The Fed will remain flexible in its policies & actions. The yield-curve is normal now & will be watched. It will be a year of tightening. Risks include high inflation, various threats to economic expansion, Covid-19 factors, supply-chain disruptions (that should gradually clear), Europe, etc.
The stock market has been very volatile this week. It was up strong on Wednesday morning but turned down after the press conference.
Additional statements were issues on 1) long-term monetary policy & strategies, 2) principles for Fed balance sheet reduction.
LINK
More RED this morning #2 “... somehow I don't think this will end well.”Yep. Nuts
Just another bizarre day. Haven’t liked the market action for a while. Missed most of the Fed news today. Need to catch up. Powell’s mumbling something on Bloomberg … DKNG pulled back from +17% to only +9%. The DOW which has been up 300 points or more today is negative
50 as I write. Hmm …
Gold’s getting mildly slammed today (off $33.00). But it’s still $1818 - far ahead of the $1700 it flirted with last year. I’m hanging on to DKNG this time around because I have some good hedges in place if all H breaks loose. As
@Derf says “Enjoy the ride.” YOLO
WTF?. The Dow fell another 300 while I was writing. Will need to write faster! ;)
Pundits welcome!
PRWCX Shakey Start to Year By weekly or monthly peaks do you mean simply a rollup or summary of each week's values that shows the highest intraday (instantaneous) value achieved during that week? I'm not sure if that's what you're looking for since you add that intraday data is too noisy.
Perhaps you're looking for easy access to each week's closing value. Then one could calculate a monthly peak as the highest of the weekly closes, much as one might calculate a monthly peak as the highest daily close over the month. Either way, this is filtering out some noise. In the former, one is filtering out even daily fluctuations. In the latter, one is filtering out only intraday fluctuations.
Whatever. Here's Yahoo's weekly data for the S&P
500 (and its pre-19
57 predecessor) going back to 1927. Since it gives both weekly instantaneous highs and weekly closes, it gives you whichever you're looking for. Digital, discrete. No analog charts, no mouseovers needed.
Yahoo weekly historical S&P 500 data (Yahoo can also return monthly data rather than weekly data.)
Unfortunately, not downloadable, likely due to licensing issues:
Please note: This [download] feature is not available for all instruments due to data licensing restrictions, in which case the "Download" option is not present.
https://help.yahoo.com/kb/SLN2311.html
PRWCX Shakey Start to Year I don't look at intra day numbers to define off high/low because intra day is way too noisy. Even daily is noisy imo and I would prefer weekly or monthly but I need to find a tool that allows me easy access to weekly and monthly peaks without whipping out the calculator and reading charts.
SP500 is about 9% off its last peak so this isn't even technically a correction yet.
The S&P
500 ended with a 0.3 percent gain, but not before plunging to a point where it was more than 10 percent below its Jan. 3 record. That kind of drop,
called a correction, doesn’t happen often, and is a marker of investors’ souring attitudes toward stocks.
per Yahoo). Does it really matter whether the index drop is "technically" a correction? What's the difference between dropping 9.99% and 10.01%?
As the NYTimes puts it, "The 10 percent trigger for a correction is an arbitrary, round-number threshold. But it serves as a signal that investors have turned pointedly more pessimistic about the market."