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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • FIVE GEE
    See a response (4th reply) on the 5G C-band by "Bentley", a retired pilot, in a M* thread (unfortunately, his post alone cannot be cited).
    https://community.morningstar.com/s/question/0D53o00005sqKJLCA2/aaii-sentiment-survey-11922
  • TIPS,,,,, can anyone explain price decline YTD
    Thanks gentlemen. I did switch to STIP for the shorter duration. I am a buy and hold guy and comfortable with my 35% equity allocation . It’s the other 65% that is driving me crazy. I suspect this is going to be a tough year for “the other.” I am not afraid of cash in the short term.
  • TIPS,,,,, can anyone explain price decline YTD
    TIPS have higher durations than Treasuries of comparable maturities, so they are hit worse from rising rates. Almost 25% of TIPS are held by the Fed, a price-insensitive buyer. And TIPS funds behave quite differently from individually held TIPS to maturity There is confusion on how the TIPS funds report 30-day SEC yield - some report only real 30-day yield, others add CPI to it.
    Many TDFs do include TIPS. Vanguard TDFs switched from IT-TIPS (too volatile) to ST-TIPS (to capture most of the inflation effects) years ago.
    (Edited post from another MFO thread)
  • PING CATCH
    Hi Puddnhead,
    Ya want me to get naked in front of everyone with my portfolio, eh? :)
    A few notes: At this time, all of our market holdings are either T-IRA or Roth accounts, so any position changes do not involve taxation considerations. We generally do not hold more that 5 investments at any given time, with 10 being a maximum; as beyond this number tends to not have a meaningful impact (positive or negative) upon a portfolio. An EXCEPTION would be: if one wants 25% of a portfolio to be in health related; and can find 3-5 funds/etf's that don't have a lot of overlap; this would be okay.
    Our house continues to favor health and technology. FSMEX, IMHO; is a fund that favors both of these areas. FSPHX, FHLC and similar funds are more broad based health funds. Although the ARK funds, ARKK in particular; has a lot of rocky performance and bad press at this time; the ARKG etf has become fairly inexpensive at this time and travels into another favorable long term area (IMHO) of medicine/health/tech. (genomics and related). Some of these companies will fail, but others will prosper and/or become the targets of M&A.
    Generally, one can expect decent distributions (div's, cap gains) from the healthcare area. So, a bonus, eh?
    AND YES, health care funds have taken a hit with much else, for 2022.
    Now: We no longer have FSPHX, which was replaced several years ago with FHLC.
    FHLC is 21% of the total portfolio
    FSMEX is 15% of the total portfolio
    You mentioned a poor year....2021....for health. I'm okay with the 2021 total returns shown in the below chart.
    CHART of FSPHX, FSMEX and FHLC (Fido health etf) for 2021.
    I've sure as heck forgotten something to jabber about, for this post.
    Remain curious,
    Catch
  • TIPS,,,,, can anyone explain price decline YTD
    Note the comment by Sonai Desai in my recent Barron’s Roundtable post (Quotable Quotes.)
    It’s second up from the bottom.
    I’ve avoided owning TIPS (except for a few short duration ones) because they are misunderstood by many and I can’t get a good read on their risk / reward profile myself. Putting them into a mutual fund subject to inflows and outflows further clouds the issue. Think of it this way: Foremost, you are buying a Treasury bond. Secondly, you are getting a certain amount of inflation protection along with that bond.
  • 7 bear market funds
    I’ve searched and searched the possibilities in recent months. Most I track haven’t done that well - yet, at least. For example SWAN, DFND, DRSK, NUSI, NLSAX
    Of course, you can go “straight up” with something like BEARX or DOG. But it’s a gamble I wouldn’t be comfortable with. Very risky. The old line … “Markets can remain irrational longer than most investors can stay solvent.”
    I’m using TAIL in small amount (5% give / take). It’s a small timing play as well as a bit of portfolio insurance. I’d add a little more on strengthening indexes and sell off a bit should markets decline substantially..
    I’ve always thought the best defense was broad diversification across: asset classes, geo-political areas, risk levels (beta), and some cash or short duration bonds. Also, don’t overlook the “alternatives” mentioned in various threads.
    Hope this helps.
  • Getting off the sidelines - when?
    @MikeM - TMSRX was up .50% yesterday. Somewhere in that concoction there must be some exposure to the precious metals. That would help explain its slump throughout much of 2021 as well as the bump up yesterday when gold and silver were hot. (Miners +7%)
  • Getting off the sidelines - when?
    Added a couple bond funds, PTIAX and MWTRX and index AGG, to Rick's chart for comparison to the alts. CTFAX and TMSRX, 2 alt funds I own, are performing YTD the same as bonds. I guess no surprise.
    I was actually looking at my alts and tracked bond funds this morning to see how they have compared return wise this year. As of this morning YTD, CTFAX was down -1.7%. TMSRX down -1.4%. Bond funds I track but don't own, AGG down -1.6%. PTIAX down -1.2%. MWTRX down -1.5%...
    A few ultra short bond ETFs I do hold in my withdrawal bucket; MINT -0.2%, FLRN 0.0, JPST 0.0, FTSL +0.17. RPHYX, my biggest holding in this bucket, is +0.01%. Seems like these funds are doing fine through this volatile start to the year.
    FWIW.
  • A lot of green in the markets today (midday)
    It's like the weather in Iceland; wait 20 minutes and it will get much worse.
    Mark Twain, "If you don't like the weather in New England, wait just a few minutes."
    But it applies to Chicago as well where we got up this morning with 7 degF.
    Iceland? Nah! 45 degF today.

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  • I'm Not Sure Wood at ARK ETF Knows What "Soul Searching" Really Is
    Even Louis Rukeyser enjoyed gambling in his day!
    Mr. Rukeyser lived on 4 acres in Greenwich, Conn., with his wife, Alexandra Gill, a British journalist whom he met while working in London for The Sun … He enjoyed gambling, wine and fine dining, and traveled the world to sample the best restaurants and casinos. “The best inflation hedge is living well,” Mr. Rukeyser said in a Sun interview.
    Baltimore Sun
  • I'm Not Sure Wood at ARK ETF Knows What "Soul Searching" Really Is
    I was locked out of @msf’s link on my ipad, but accessed it on smaller screen iphone.
    “Leakages come from three sources: cash-outs when participants change jobs, hardship withdrawals, and the failure to repay loans. The government has attempted to discourage leakages by generally imposing a 10% penalty — in addition to regular income taxes — on withdrawals before age 591⁄2. “
    Well, these additional taxes and penalties ought to really help with the (likely “maxed-out”) plan participant’s financial situation!
    My point - irresponsible money management (including gambling) takes many different forms.
  • A lot of green in the markets today (midday)
    Mark Twain, "If you don't like the weather in New England, wait just a few minutes."
    But it applies to Chicago as well where we got up this morning with 7 degF.
    Iceland? Nah! 45 degF today.
  • A lot of green in the markets today (midday)
    At Noon (1/20)
    DJI +1%
    S&P +1.29%
    NAS +1.59%
    Oil $87.65 + .80%
    Gold $1840 -$3.00
    Gold Miners -.15%
    ARKK +5%
    10-Year Treasury yield 1.84% (vs 1.86% at open)
    Head Fake?
  • 7 bear market funds
    Reviving this thread!
    Fund BEARX in Cycle 4(200009 to 200710) had an APR of 11.5 vs some others as listed below
    - VBINX: 4.3
    - VGSTX: 7.3
    - VTSMX: 2.7
    I have no idea whether we are entering a period comparable to Cycle 4 but I do believe that we will enter a period of some softness and turbulence ahead with the known headwinds -- rates, war, high equity valuations, etc..
    I am considering a position in BEARX. Would love to hear other pro/con views on the same.
  • FIVE GEE
    Yep. No one knew about 5G then. Actually, it is a relatively recent knowledge that mid-band offers the best compromise for 5G speed and range. And other parts of the mid-band are being used by other things. So, that leaves only the US C-band for T & VZ for now (TMUS uses another portion of the mid-band). If the Government pushes too hard on this, T & VZ may want refund of their money back from the FCC that sold this spectrum without proper conditions. But public safety should come first.
  • In your health (other investing)
    The federal government will be providing free N95 masks early next month in a way that IMHO makes more sense than the way it is providing free test kits.
    Instead of N per residence address, regardless of number of people, three masks per person will be provided.
    While one will still have to venture outside to get those masks, they will be available at local pharmacies much as vaccines are.
    https://www.cnn.com/2022/01/19/politics/n95-masks-biden-administration-covid-19/index.html
  • FIVE GEE
    FCC sold those C-band frequencies/spectrum (3.70-3.98 GHz) for $80+ billion. So, the FCC, and the companies who bought that spectrum (mostly T, VZ), want to push ahead; T-Mobile uses a different part of mid-band for its 5G. They are throwing stuff like "C-band is used in Europe without any issues" but C-band is wide and the devil is in the details. The issue is the specific US C-band frequencies used that are too close to those used in airplane instrumentations. The FAA has been in the loop, but many airlines have been blindsighted. Getting emergency alerts from Boeing & Airbus that some planes shouldn't fly in active 5G zones doesn't help. Not every airline has extra planes sitting around to tinker with the route, especially long haul routes.
  • FIVE GEE
    Howdy folks,
    So typically government. How many years ago did they auction off the spectrum? Duh.
    That said, I favor 5G over the airlines. It's more important. Sorry, but we've morphed from transportation to communication. Think about it. It's a continuum. Albeit moving goods and moving busses of data.
    I also don't believe the airlines. They're not having issues overseas AND these are the peeps who lied to us for what? 10? 15? years over cellphones in planes.
    Nah, roll it out completely. It's more important.
    and so it goes,
    peace and wear the damn mask,
    rono
  • FIVE GEE
    Many airlines are canceling flights due to an unexpected 5G issue (not Omicron, not weather) - the US C-band (3.70-3.98 GHz; part of the mid-band) that just turned on can cause interference with plane instrumentations (nearby 4+ GHz used) & some airlines don't want to take chances with the US flights; it is an issue to be settled among the FAA, FCC, airline industry & White House. Telecom commercial interests & public safety issues have to be balanced - how did things get this far without resolution?