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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • A Glimpse into Barron’s Roundtable Part 1 (January 17 print edition)
    @yogibearbull - Thanks for the links. Please know I welcome your more comprehensive Barron’s’ summaries, which received a number of positive responses last week. My occasional Barron’s posts are “hit & miss”, focusing on single articles.
    Re crypto, I can’t say any of the participants was very enthralled by it. One point of view expressed was if the central banks issue their own crypto currencies backed by sovereigns it might put the current ones out of business.
    There was a nice swipe at Musk’s SNL appearance … to the effect that if a single “off-the-cuff” comment by a celebrity on television can cause one of these currencies to soar or plunge in value, it ought to be avoided.
    PS - I’ve been trying to guess which miscalculation or failure will bring down the equity markets. Generally it’s an unanticipated “bolt out of the blue”. Crypto could be one ignition source. But there are plenty of others. I will concede there’s already been some correction. Can’t see the ARKK type stuff going much lower. Some of the holdings are off 70% over 1 year. My guess: Maybe another 10-15% for many of the names on Wood’s little tug that couldn’t.
  • A Glimpse into Barron’s Roundtable Part 1 (January 17 print edition)
    There are several classes of CPREX. In Barron's/Lipper database, interval-funds are shown under CEFs as "Continuously Offered" but info is very limited, mostly N/A. The Franklin Templeton site link is https://www.franklintempleton.com/investments/options/mutual-funds/products/92083/I/clarion-partners-real-estate-income-fund-inc/CPREX
    BTW, I own ANOTHER direct real estate fund, TIAA Real Estate Account VA through my 403b. https://www.tiaa.org/public/investment-performance/investment/profile?ticker=41091375
    Real estate has done well but it has a long cycle. Other options are real estate equity (VNQ, FRESX, etc) or hybrid (FRIFX, not many similar funds).
  • Hold On or Move On
    Bobpa, as I mentioned earlier in this thread, I too hold MIOPX and BGAFX, both representing LG global, together around 15% of portfolio. I’m holding, for reasons Observant asked about above. Both are funds are highly rated, respected managers, and fill a role in the portfolio. Given the conservative overall AA of my total portfolio, equities less than 50%, I’m okay with the volatility. Actually, I’m prepared to add when I next rebalance. As mentioned on another thread about the research on tinkering with one’s portfolio, I try and remember “less is more”. I’m not sure I agree that rebalancing is the same as tinkering.
    Best of luck,
    Rick
  • A Glimpse into Barron’s Roundtable Part 1 (January 17 print edition)
    Direct real estate fund CPREX is an interval-fund, a special type of unlisted fund that can be bought from brokers any time, but redemptions are limited.
    For CPREX, that redemption is up to 5% per quarter at NAV (so, may take 20 quarters (5 years) to get completely out). There are about 3 dozen such interval-funds that are suitable for illiquid securities. These are sort of in between ETFs and CEFs. Some describe them as roach-motels.
    Thanks. Most interesting. I wondered about CPREX as Lipper couldn’t locate it. From what I could find, there’s a $1,000,000 minimum. Of all the mentioned funds (I already own GLFOX) this one looked interesting. Generally I won’t open a new position in anything that’s up 20-30% in a year’s time. Prefer to buy low and get paid to wait. I suspect, that like real estate funds generally, CPREX has already seen a nice run up - hence off my radar.
    PS - a link to its 1, 3, 5 year performance would be appreciated.
  • Hold On or Move On
    I have no idea if your 5 funds will appreciate in the next year.
    Regarding your question whether to "hold on or move on":
    Why did you purchase these funds in the first place?
    Have there been any material changes (management, strategy, etc.) since the initial purchase date?
    When there have been no material changes to a fund, I usually opt to "hold on".
    However, if funds' volatility/drawdowns create excessive anxiety it may be best to "move on".
  • A Glimpse into Barron’s Roundtable Part 1 (January 17 print edition)
    Direct real estate fund CPREX is an interval-fund, a special type of unlisted fund that can be bought from brokers any time, but redemptions are limited. For CPREX, that redemption is up to 5% per quarter at NAV (so, may take 20 quarters (5 years) to get completely out).
    There are about 3 dozen such interval-funds that are suitable for illiquid securities. These are sort of in between ETFs and CEFs. Some describe them as roach-motels.
  • A Glimpse into Barron’s Roundtable Part 1 (January 17 print edition)
    This is a fascinating and lengthy look at the markets past and present. I highly encourage folks to obtain and read the full text. While I quote a few lines from different participants, realize each had a unique point of view. And, sometimes those viewpoints diverged sharply.
    Participants:
    Todd Ahlsten - Parnassus
    Rupal Bhansali - Ariel
    Scott Black - Delphi
    Abby Cohen - Columbia Univ.
    Sonal Desai - Franklin Templeton
    Henry Ellenbogen - Durable Capital
    Mario Gabelli - Gamco
    David Giroux - T. Rowe Price
    William Priest - Epoch
    Meryl Witmer - Eagle
    Quotable Quotes:
    Cohen: “Unlike in recent years past, we will see that diversification, stock selection, and risk control matter.” She terms 2022 “the revenge of the nerds”.
    Bhansali: “My (year-end) forecast implies a double-digit decline in U.S. markets (S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100) …”
    Giroux: “The asset class today with the most attractive risk/reward profile is leveraged loans. I’ve taken leveraged loans to 12% of my portfolio …”
    Giroux: “I would make a bet that the 10-year doesn’t get above 2.5% in the next year.”
    Witmer: “What has been noticeable in the past year is extreme volatility in individual stocks.”
    Witmer: “If the music stops and crypto tanks, there could be a contagion into the stock market. It could set up a good buying opportunity.”
    Black: “The NTF craze in the art market is reaching the heights of delirium.”
    Black: “I would avoid fixed income like the plague.”
    Desai: “With TIPS, you end up taking on duration risk. If there is a selloff in Treasuries, TIPS won’t deliver …”
    Priest: “There is also an existential political risk to the market around the question, ‘Does market efficiency require a democracy in order to operate optimally?’ “
    Some of the funds mentioned favorably by various panelists at different points in the interview:
    GLFOX, PAVE, EAPCX, SRLN, FRIAX, FEIFX, MPACX, CPREX (closed end)
    From Barrons - January 17, 2022
  • Hold On or Move On
    These 5 funds make up 5% of the total portfolio. They all at one point had greatly appreciated in value in the past year, but in the last 6 weeks have moved down significantly. Overall I am up in value from the initial investment, but down considerably from the high points. So the question is "Hold On or Move On?" Hold on meaning are they likely to appreciate in the next year and stay with them or Move on meaning to put the present value into allocation funds where 95% of the portfolio is invested and be happy that I did not lose any of the initial investment?
    MGGPX Morgan Stanley Global Opportunities Negative return
    BGAFX Baron Global Advantage Fund Positive return
    ARTYX Artisan Developing World Fund Negative return
    MIOPX Morgan Stanley Institutional Fund, Inc. International Opportunity Positive return
    BCSVX Brown Capital Management International Small Company Fund Positive return
  • Barry Ritholtz. reminds folks at all knowledge levels about market timing skills or lack of.......
    TIPS are controversial. They have higher durations than Treasuries of comparable maturities, so they are hit worse from rising rates. Almost 25% of TIPS are held by the Fed, a price-insensitive buyer. And TIPS funds behave quite differently from individually held TIPS to maturity (well, other bonds do too, but TIPS more so than other bonds). There is also confusion on how the TIPS funds report 30-day SEC yield (some report only real 30-day yield, others add CPI to it).
    True, I don't know of any allocation fund based on stocks and only TIPS, but there may be good reasons for that.
    Many TDFs do include TIPS. Vanguard TDFs switched from IT-TIPS (too volatile) to ST-TIPS (to capture most of the inflation effects) years ago.
  • Hold On or Move On
    I recently purchased PWJZX and I'm getting spanked the past 2 months. I'm certainly not a market timer but looks like I 'timed' this one ...badly! Also, own ARTYX aka the Global fund with 50% in EM.
    In hindsight, not sure if owning both is necessary ...other Int'l holdings are WAGTX, MSMLX
  • Wealthtrack - Weekly Investment Show
    @Derf,
    I have three puddles of retirement income: Roth IRA, T-IRA and HSA. I have pension, but no Social security.
    Until 65 I will be contributing to my HSA and managing my income to maximize my ACA (Affordable Care Act) premiums.
    From 65 to 72 I plan on managing withdrawals / conversions from my T-IRA to the extent that I can maximize my (15%) tax bracket. At 72 RMDs will start.
    RMDs percentages increase each year. Depending on your T-IRA balance, these RMDs could be more than one needs to spend.
    Do you find you spend your entire RMD or does some end up puddling in a taxable account?
    Here's @yogibearbull's RMD chart:
    image
  • Gambling in 2022
    The Intelligent Investor by Jason Zweig: The Best Investment for This Coming Crazy Year
    As the money manager Martin Zweig (no relation), who died in 2013, liked to say: “The markets will always do whatever they have to do to screw over as many people as possible.”
  • Gambling in 2022
    #1 Precious metals and miners. Silver followed by gold.
    #2 I think Cathie Wood’s ARKK will rebound later this year. But probably has farther to fall first. Finishing positive for the year would be a feat, as it’s 15% down after the first 2 weeks.
    Note that the question says “which you think will appreciate most in value.” I would never sink a significant sum of money into what I “think” will happen. Stay well diversified.
  • Gambling in 2022
    IBonds.
    to roll the dice if that is what your are asking...and NOT that I am doing that...but I think the risk/reward with Hussy, HSGFX might be a time when the broken clock is correct this year. Risk/reward skew might be in the fund's favor this year.
    Not a fund but kind of like one...BRK.B (full disclosure, I'm in)...$150B in cash in case it all goes to sheisse...large holder of the "religious like company, meaning Apple", railroads, banks, well run businesses'.
    Maybe 50/50 HSGFX/BRK.B? Dunno?!
    Good Luck!
    Baseball Fan
  • Wealthtrack - Weekly Investment Show
    Christine Benz's withdrawal suggestion (3%, rather than 4%)...3.3% to be precise... has a lot to do with future expectation of portfolio returns during the next 30 years. To me it really has more to do with future expectation over the next five years and next year, it will be about the next five years. In my 60's I am looking at a rolling five year withdrawal strategy when it come to retirement income from my retirement investments.
    Retirement Income is more about providing an income floor rather than an income ceiling. If you spend some time prior to retirement determining your income floor (basic expenses) and than determine where you will derive this income from, you find yourself forming a pecking order of income sources.
    Full time income will end and will need to be replaced with other sources of income such as - SS, pension, part time work, passive income from rental investments, investment income, etc.
    Fine tune your basic expenses. You have the time (in retirement) to shop what things cost...this might help lower your income floor. Shop your monthly expenses (cable, phone, internet, insurances, etc.) for the best service at the best price. Shop those larger one-time purchases (a car, setting up your workshop, taking a vacation, etc.)
    it was prudent to keep 3-6 months of emergency cash on hand in case work income got interrupted. In retirement, keep this same cash on hand for market interruptions or emergencies (such as unexpected health care costs).
    If part of your income in retirement come from your investments, match the time horizon of your income need with the time horizon of the investment so you have a better chance of achieving your investment objective.
    Equities need 5 - 15 years to smooth out the volatility inherit to its asset risk. If, in retirement you need some of your investments for income, you should have "a rolling 5 year income strategy" for some of your retirement money that is less risky... less volatile.
    Using Christine's safe withdrawal rate (3.3% of your total investment portfolio) you can approximate what your can afford to spend and how much you should keep safely invested for withdrawal purposes to fund the next 3-5 years of withdrawals.
    Would love to hear how others view this topic.
  • CEF: Saw this one mentioned in an article linked from here: AGNC
    Food for Thought
    Edited to add: Pay attention to the chart of dividends paid out over time. It goes without saying I hope that the biggest dividends are not always proof of the best investments.
  • Barry Ritholtz. reminds folks at all knowledge levels about market timing skills or lack of.......
    Most jobs do not require more than 2-3 yrs to be very good at it, provided one has aptitude for that job.

    That’s the reason I deleted the line about some of us having 50+ years investment experience. I agree it’s a non-issue. Thanks for the note.
    I hope those arguing against term limits for elected offices take note of your comment. Unfortunately, we citizens confuse ability to win elections with ability or even desire to govern.
  • I'm Not Sure Wood at ARK ETF Knows What "Soul Searching" Really Is
    Not sure there's any point to discussing politico-economical issues where someone can write 'Far left government paid people to sit at home and is still trying to hand out freebies', but this was enlightening, about "socialist" (har) gov and loafers and layabouts and QoL elsewhere:
    https://messaging-custom-newsletters.nytimes.com/template/oakv2?campaign_id=116&emc=edit_pk_20220114&instance_id=50392&nl=paul-krugman&productCode=PK&regi_id=22268089&segment_id=79774&te=1&uri=nyt://newsletter/2506423f-8181-5221-97e3-1080724eb062&user_id=83d45440ead1d14c2a89a1e7221337d1
  • Barry Ritholtz. reminds folks at all knowledge levels about market timing skills or lack of.......
    Most jobs do not require more than 2-3 yrs to be very good at it, provided one has aptitude for that job.
    That’s the reason I deleted the line about some of us having 50+ years investment experience. I agree it’s a non-issue. Thanks for the note.