A Glimpse into Barron’s Roundtable Part 1 (January 17 print edition) This is a fascinating and lengthy look at the markets past and present. I highly encourage folks to obtain and read the full text. While I quote a few lines from different participants, realize each had a unique point of view. And, sometimes those viewpoints diverged sharply.
Participants:
Todd Ahlsten - Parnassus
Rupal Bhansali - Ariel
Scott Black - Delphi
Abby Cohen - Columbia Univ.
Sonal Desai - Franklin Templeton
Henry Ellenbogen - Durable Capital
Mario Gabelli - Gamco
David Giroux - T. Rowe Price
William Priest - Epoch
Meryl Witmer - Eagle
Quotable Quotes:
Cohen: “Unlike in recent years past, we will see that diversification, stock selection, and risk control matter.” She terms 2022 “the revenge of the nerds”.
Bhansali: “My (year-end) forecast implies a double-digit decline in U.S. markets (S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100) …”
Giroux: “The asset class today with the most attractive risk/reward profile is leveraged loans. I’ve taken leveraged loans to 12% of my portfolio …”
Giroux: “I would make a bet that the 10-year doesn’t get above 2.5% in the next year.”
Witmer: “What has been noticeable in the past year is extreme volatility in individual stocks.”
Witmer: “If the music stops and crypto tanks, there could be a contagion into the stock market. It could set up a good buying opportunity.”
Black: “The NTF craze in the art market is reaching the heights of delirium.”
Black: “I would avoid fixed income like the plague.”
Desai: “With TIPS, you end up taking on duration risk. If there is a selloff in Treasuries, TIPS won’t deliver …”
Priest: “There is also an existential political risk to the market around the question, ‘Does market efficiency require a democracy in order to operate optimally?’ “
Some of the funds mentioned favorably by various panelists at different points in the interview:
GLFOX, PAVE, EAPCX, SRLN, FRIAX, FEIFX, MPACX, CPREX (closed end)
From Barrons - January 17, 2022
Hold On or Move On These 5 funds make up 5% of the total portfolio. They all at one point had greatly appreciated in value in the past year, but in the last 6 weeks have moved down significantly. Overall I am up in value from the initial investment, but down considerably from the high points. So the question is "Hold On or Move On?" Hold on meaning are they likely to appreciate in the next year and stay with them or Move on meaning to put the present value into allocation funds where 95% of the portfolio is invested and be happy that I did not lose any of the initial investment?
MGGPX Morgan Stanley Global Opportunities Negative return
BGAFX Baron Global Advantage Fund Positive return
ARTYX Artisan Developing World Fund Negative return
MIOPX Morgan Stanley Institutional Fund, Inc. International Opportunity Positive return
BCSVX Brown Capital Management International Small Company Fund Positive return
Barry Ritholtz. reminds folks at all knowledge levels about market timing skills or lack of....... TIPS are controversial. They have higher durations than Treasuries of comparable maturities, so they are hit worse from rising rates. Almost 25% of TIPS are held by the Fed, a price-insensitive buyer. And TIPS funds behave quite differently from individually held TIPS to maturity (well, other bonds do too, but TIPS more so than other bonds). There is also confusion on how the TIPS funds report 30-day SEC yield (some report only real 30-day yield, others add CPI to it).
True, I don't know of any allocation fund based on stocks and only TIPS, but there may be good reasons for that.
Many TDFs do include TIPS. Vanguard TDFs switched from IT-TIPS (too volatile) to ST-TIPS (to capture most of the inflation effects) years ago.
Hold On or Move On I recently purchased PWJZX and I'm getting spanked the past 2 months. I'm certainly not a market timer but looks like I 'timed' this one ...badly! Also, own ARTYX aka the Global fund with 50% in EM.
In hindsight, not sure if owning both is necessary ...other Int'l holdings are WAGTX, MSMLX
Wealthtrack - Weekly Investment Show @Derf,
I have three puddles of retirement income: Roth IRA, T-IRA and HSA. I have pension, but no Social security.
Until 6
5 I will be contributing to my HSA and managing my income to maximize my ACA (Affordable Care Act) premiums.
From 6
5 to 72 I plan on managing withdrawals / conversions from my T-IRA to the extent that I can maximize my (1
5%) tax bracket. At 72 RMDs will start.
RMDs percentages increase each year. Depending on your T-IRA balance, these RMDs could be more than one needs to spend.
Do you find you spend your entire RMD or does some end up puddling in a taxable account?
Here's
@yogibearbull's RMD chart:

Gambling in 2022 The Intelligent Investor by Jason Zweig:
The Best Investment for This Coming Crazy YearAs the money manager Martin Zweig (no relation), who died in 2013, liked to say: “The markets will always do whatever they have to do to screw over as many people as possible.”
Gambling in 2022 #1 Precious metals and miners. Silver followed by gold.
#2 I think Cathie Wood’s ARKK will rebound later this year. But probably has farther to fall first. Finishing positive for the year would be a feat, as it’s 15% down after the first 2 weeks.
Note that the question says “which you think will appreciate most in value.” I would never sink a significant sum of money into what I “think” will happen. Stay well diversified.
Gambling in 2022 IBonds.
to roll the dice if that is what your are asking...and NOT that I am doing that...but I think the risk/reward with Hussy, HSGFX might be a time when the broken clock is correct this year. Risk/reward skew might be in the fund's favor this year.
Not a fund but kind of like one...BRK.B (full disclosure, I'm in)...$150B in cash in case it all goes to sheisse...large holder of the "religious like company, meaning Apple", railroads, banks, well run businesses'.
Maybe 50/50 HSGFX/BRK.B? Dunno?!
Good Luck!
Baseball Fan
Wealthtrack - Weekly Investment Show Christine Benz's withdrawal suggestion (3%, rather than 4%)...3.3% to be precise... has a lot to do with future expectation of portfolio returns during the next 30 years. To me it really has more to do with future expectation over the next five years and next year, it will be about the next five years. In my 60's I am looking at a rolling five year withdrawal strategy when it come to retirement income from my retirement investments.
Retirement Income is more about providing an income floor rather than an income ceiling. If you spend some time prior to retirement determining your income floor (basic expenses) and than determine where you will derive this income from, you find yourself forming a pecking order of income sources.
Full time income will end and will need to be replaced with other sources of income such as - SS, pension, part time work, passive income from rental investments, investment income, etc.
Fine tune your basic expenses. You have the time (in retirement) to shop what things cost...this might help lower your income floor. Shop your monthly expenses (cable, phone, internet, insurances, etc.) for the best service at the best price. Shop those larger one-time purchases (a car, setting up your workshop, taking a vacation, etc.)
it was prudent to keep 3-6 months of emergency cash on hand in case work income got interrupted. In retirement, keep this same cash on hand for market interruptions or emergencies (such as unexpected health care costs).
If part of your income in retirement come from your investments, match the time horizon of your income need with the time horizon of the investment so you have a better chance of achieving your investment objective.
Equities need 5 - 15 years to smooth out the volatility inherit to its asset risk. If, in retirement you need some of your investments for income, you should have "a rolling 5 year income strategy" for some of your retirement money that is less risky... less volatile.
Using Christine's safe withdrawal rate (3.3% of your total investment portfolio) you can approximate what your can afford to spend and how much you should keep safely invested for withdrawal purposes to fund the next 3-5 years of withdrawals.
Would love to hear how others view this topic.
CEF: Saw this one mentioned in an article linked from here: AGNC Food for ThoughtEdited to add: Pay attention to the chart of dividends paid out over time. It goes without saying I hope that the biggest dividends are not always proof of the best investments.
Wealthtrack - Weekly Investment Show Jan 14th Episode:

Barry Ritholtz. reminds folks at all knowledge levels about market timing skills or lack of....... Most jobs do not require more than 2-3 yrs to be very good at it, provided one has aptitude for that job.
That’s the reason I deleted the line about some of us having 50+ years investment experience. I agree it’s a non-issue. Thanks for the note.
I hope those arguing against term limits for elected offices take note of your comment. Unfortunately, we citizens confuse ability to win elections with ability or even desire to govern.
I'm Not Sure Wood at ARK ETF Knows What "Soul Searching" Really Is
Barry Ritholtz. reminds folks at all knowledge levels about market timing skills or lack of....... Most jobs do not require more than 2-3 yrs to be very good at it, provided one has aptitude for that job.
That’s the reason I deleted the line about some of us having
50+ years investment experience. I agree it’s a non-issue. Thanks for the note.