Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. If you want to get involved, click one of these buttons!

Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Templeton Global Bond
    The September 2021 Morningstar Fund Investor newsletter indicates that Templeton Global Bond (TPINX) was downgraded from Silver to Neutral.
    "This fund has stuck to Its guns, and that means it has
    been wrong for a long time. Manager Michael
    Hasenstab has been bullish on emerging markets and
    bearish on U.S. bonds. The fund kept duration near
    zero while maintaining outsize bets on Ukraine and
    other emerging markets. We stayed positive on the
    fund given Hasenstab’s past record, but eventually we
    have to conclude that he’s not as good as we thought."

    TPINX was one of the premier funds in the World Bond category years ago.
    Templeton Global Bond was different from most World Bond funds due to substantial emerging markets exposure and its currency bets. As of 01/31/16, the fund generated top 1% / top 2% category returns for the respective 10 Yr and 15 Yr trailing periods.
    Michael Hasenstab (M* 2010 Fixed-Income Manager of the Year) started co-managing TPINX on 12/31/2001.
    Several fund managers have come and gone since then.
    Templeton Global Bond was moved to the Nontraditional Bond category in 2019.
    I remember purchasing Templeton Global Income (GIM - CEF version of TPINX) in late 2013.
    GIM was trading with an attractive discount and it had a lower expense ratio than TPINX.
    Unfortunately, the discount widened and Mr. Hasenstab lost his mojo.
    I sold the CEF approximately five years later booking a small profit.
  • Catastrophe Porfolio
    ”I worry that standard 30/70 funds will do poorly when both bonds and stocks get hit badly”
    That’s a great point. Normally “the world turns over” every 24 hours. But when it comes to falling or very low interest rates, this has been going on now for 30-40 years - an obscenely long time.
    The temptation is to run to riskier assets and away from bonds. Yet, when markets really tank, stocks can stink up the joint a lot worse than bonds can. If nervous about interest sensitive bonds, consider short duration bonds or bond funds out to perhaps 3-5 years.
    I also worry about traditional “balanced” funds - be the ratio 60/40, 40/60, 30/70 or 60/30/10 (RPGAX). All are subject to the “double-whammy” of bonds & equities submerging together. That, I think, is why TRP brought out TMSRX which is capable of garnering a modest return even in a market marked by falling bond and equity prices. I have a couple others I think may offer similar benefits, but am not confident or versed enough in them to post or recommend.
  • Quality Growth: AKREX, POLRX, EGFFX
    Agree @mark. When you carry that many funds, for every winner in a portfolio there are probably 5-10 mediocre to bad funds too. Just the rules of the game. Your portfolio is indexed at best.
  • Quality Growth: AKREX, POLRX, EGFFX
    I’ve been watching this discussion hoping for some insight on EGFFX, a fund unbeknownst to me. From what I can see looking at the holdings it’s a pure growth vehicle that has avoided the relative drop that affected so many growth funds this calendar year. A search on MFO of the fund symbol shows that the only person who said he was a buyer was our erstwhile contributor, Old_Skeet, and that message is from 2015. I have held AKREX for about 8 years and been very pleased. Thanks to @Griffin for showing us that there gems out there that don’t get our attention.
  • the Sequoia ETF
    I could name 50 funds I'd rather see in an etf wrapper- JABAX FBALX VWINX FTANX etc, but never in a thousand years SEQUX !
  • Vanguard Customer Service
    POLRX has beaten POGRX handily over the last few years. granted POLRX is 25% FANG but somehow I doubt when there is a major correction POGRX will loose less
  • the Sequoia ETF
    It always amazes me how people who did such a great job for so long a time could collectively agree to violate one of the most fundamental rule of investing DIVERSIFY!
    If they had remembered, betting on Valeant would have been a 5% blip, not 50%
    OF course they are in a not so small group. Bruce Berkowitz immediately comes to mind, Third Avenue Value etc.
  • the Sequoia ETF
    Apparently Ruane, Cunniff & Goldbarb plan to launch a non-transparent, active ETF version of the Sequoia Fund. The expense ratio has not been disclosed.
    The current Sequoia team began digging out from under the rubble almost exactly five years ago.
    Good news: Ummm ... an opportunity to write nostalgic pieces about The Titan That Once Was?
    Bad news: since the new team took over, Sequoia's rank in its 138 fund Lipper Multi-Cap Growth peer group is ...
    Annual return: 110th
    Sharpe ratio: 111th
    Capture ratio (S&P500): 115th
    Downside deviation: 97th, that is, 97 have better "bad volatility" scores than Sequoia
    Maximum drawdown: 120th
    I wonder where else there would be any buzz around the announcement, "hey, guys, we're offering a clone of the 115th best fund in its peer group! Climb abroad"?
    David
  • Real Yields on European Junk Bonds Go Negative For First Time
    “Investors in European junk bonds have begun accepting interest payments that are lower than eurozone inflation levels for the first time ever, in the latest sign that central banks’ crisis-era debt purchases have shifted the balance between risk and reward. The yield on ICE BofA index of European high-yield bonds was pushed down to 2.34 per cent this week, marking the first time buyers of so-called high-yield European currency bonds have accepted payments below consumer price inflation in the eurozone …
    Analysts said investors’ willingness to extend credit to the riskiest borrowers while losing money in real terms reflected the scarcity of other opportunities to earn returns in debt markets. At the same time, Europe’s strong recovery from the pandemic following a bumper earnings season has reduced the risk that junk bond issuers will default.”

    (If your bond or multi-asset fund holds global debt you may own some of these.)
    The Financial Times
  • Let the SS COLA Projections for 2022 Begin
    Interesting...to me anyways. PV is now posting in its inflation data for 2021 = 4.81%
    image
  • Quality Growth: AKREX, POLRX, EGFFX
    Good discussion on AKREX. I had almost forgotten about this fund. I just rechecked and another point in its favor is that only dropped about 15% in Feb and March of 2020. I need to study this one again. I’m also interested in looking at its correlation with SPY to see if helps diversify my portfolio more. Like others I am still a bit too heavy on growth — primarily because my 401K equity options are somewhat limited to SPY, EFA and FSMAX. EFA is a more value oriented index but Europe has greatly underperformed US for years
  • Infinity Q Capital Management Plans to Return $500 Million to Mutual-Fund Investors
    Multi-alternative funds tend to be pricey, complex, and opaque.
    They may use combinations of various strategies: long/short equity, interest rate/currency bets, derivatives, commodities, arbitrage, etc. Many investors don't understand how these disparate strategies interact or the actual risks involved. To add insult to injury in the IQDAX liquidation, $750M of investor's money is being set aside to cover potential lawsuits.
  • Catastrophe Porfolio
    VWINX current duration is 8 years. So if rates increase 2% the bonds will drop 16%, taking the fund down 11%.
    The problem with comparisons to the 1980s is the SP500 started at very low PEs, so a lot of the return in VWINX was from the 30% equity portion. From 12/79 to 3/80 before the equity blast off VWINX lost 13%
    I would think you need something to hedge the rate increases if they come, along with faltering economic growth. Maybe real assets as mentioned, but that implies economic growth, which would also support equites.
    "this time it is different" may in fact be true today , as they has never been a comparable time with sky high equities valuations and sky high bond prices
    I worry that standard 30/70 funds will do poorly when both bonds and stocks get hit badly
  • Quality Growth: AKREX, POLRX, EGFFX
    I've held AKREX/AKRIX for a number of years and am very pleased with it. It's all about perception and expectation, I believe. If you want a LCG fund with FAANG stocks and other go-go stocks, then AKREX/AKRIX is not the vehicle.
    AKREX has performed superbly outside of 2020, when it was in the 87th percentile (-15% of LCG), BY FAR its worst relative performance.
    Unfortunately, 2020 skews its multi-year relative category performance ranking. Its annual ranks range from 1% to 29%; YTD 28%. Not bad as far as i am concerned.
    Its ten-year rank is in the 17th percentile (20.04%), again good with me. As Graust stated, its a good diversifier for other growth funds. I'll go a step further and say it's a good diversifier for most LCV and LCB funds, particularly S&P500 indexes which are top-heavy with FAANG.
    One last point, its Risk/Reward profile for all time frames is exceptional; it's also a GO fund. That's not so say there aren't better funds available, but AKREX/AKRIX is a fund to consider.
    Just one man's opinion.
    A good discussion, keep the thread alive.
    Matt
  • Vanguard Customer Service
    If there's nothing stopping one from gaming the system, one could then immediately combine those multiple accounts to meet the $50K Admiral share requirement.
    I only gave an existence proof that even if one is not a flagship customer, once one has multiple open accounts they can be combined. Combining them does not violate Vanguard's restriction on opening new accounts (which flagship customers don't have to follow, anyway). Nor does it violate Vanguard's restrictions on buying additional shares.

    Thank you for your use of the word "one" instead of "you" in your prior post.
    I am a long time Vanguard Flagship Plus client with Vanguard. Opening an account in a closed Primecap managed fund in multiple accounts was a suggestion of the Vanguard Flagship Relationship Manager. One Primecap managed fund in one account does not interest me and multiple Primecap managed funds in multiple accounts interests me even less.
  • Vanguard Customer Service
    I do not own any shares in any Primecap managed fund.
    Flagship customers can open accounts, investing up to $25K in each. You don't see any reason why one cannot game the system and open[] additonal accounts at Vanguard with different account numbers and put $25K of Primecap and $25K of Capital Opportunity in each account, each year.
    If there's nothing stopping one from gaming the system, one could then immediately combine those multiple accounts to meet the $50K Admiral share requirement.
    I only gave an existence proof that even if one is not a flagship customer, once one has multiple open accounts they can be combined. Combining them does not violate Vanguard's restriction on opening new accounts (which flagship customers don't have to follow, anyway). Nor does it violate Vanguard's restrictions on buying additional shares.
  • Vanguard Customer Service
    "But if you want to game the system, why stop at $25K/account? Vanguard allows shares to be moved from one account to another existing (not new) account. Sure, it took me over an hour on the phone with Vanguard years ago when I converted some shares in kind from a traditional to a Roth IRA (with existing positions in both accounts), but it can be done."
    I do not own any shares in any Primecap managed fund.
  • Vanguard Customer Service

    Now you ask, what prevents me from opening additonal accounts at Vanguard with different account numbers and put $25K of Primecap and $25K of Capital Opportunity in each account, each year?
    My answer is nothing.
    My answer is that pretty much any fund from any fund company can reject a purchase order that it chooses. Sometimes this is phrased as "a trade that would be disruptive", sometimes not.
    Each Vanguard fund reserves the right to reject any purchase request—including exchanges from other Vanguard funds—without notice and regardless of size. For example, a purchase request could be rejected because the investor has a history of frequent trading or if Vanguard determines that such purchase may negatively affect a fund’s operation or performance.
    https://personal.vanguard.com/pub/Pdf/p059.pdf?2210168823
    Given that Vanguard has limited the amounts one can invest so that purchases don't negatively affect a fund, it's hardly a stretch for Vanguard to consider gaming their rules disruptive.
    But if you want to game the system, why stop at $25K/account? Vanguard allows shares to be moved from one account to another existing (not new) account. Sure, it took me over an hour on the phone with Vanguard years ago when I converted some shares in kind from a traditional to a Roth IRA (with existing positions in both accounts), but it can be done.
    So open two accounts with $25K, move the shares from one account to the other, then convert the $50K to Admiral shares. Even if you get so far as to open multiple accounts of the same type (e.g. two taxable accounts) in a closed fund, I have my doubts whether Vanguard will then let you take the next step.
    Side note: Fidelity once initially rejected a purchase order of mine for a Fidelity fund because it might have been disruptive. (Upon review, Fidelity allowed it to go through.) So this is not a matter of Vanguard being different from other families.
  • Vanguard Customer Service
    Exactly. Vanguard only allows cancel order early in morning. Other times are not okay even if you call their agents.
    I will talk with their Flagship service first to see if I can get into the Investor shares first. Afterward i can add up to $25k per year until reaching the Admiral requirement, $50K.
    As Flagship, you can. If you desire, you can purchase $25K of Primecap and $25K of Capital Opportunity between now and the end of the year, and then purchase $25K in each after the first of the year, and convert to Admiral Shares, assuming the total in each is 50K or greater.
    Let's have some fun with this and my guess is if you call Vanguard six times, you will get three different answers. This is my understanding:
    Let's say that you have your retirement accounts with Vanguard. A Roth, Inherited, and Rollover IRA. You can purchase $25K of Primecap and $25K of Capital Opportunity in each account, each year.
    Let's say that you have four taxable accounts with Vanguard, all with different account numbers. You can purchase $25K of Primecap and $25K of Capital Opportunity in each account, each year.
    Now you ask, what prevents me from opening additonal accounts at Vanguard with different account numbers and put $25K of Primecap and $25K of Capital Opportunity in each account, each year?
    My answer is nothing.
  • Vanguard Customer Service
    Exactly. Vanguard only allows cancel order early in morning. Other times are not okay even if you call their agents. I will talk with their Flagship service first to see if I can get into the Investor shares first. Afterward i can add up to $25k per year until reaching the Admiral requirement, $50K.