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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Reshma Kapadia, Time for Actively Managed Mutual Funds
    The article takes a contrarian approach. Their underlying premise is that they see a dangerously narrow concentration of only a few tech giants in the S&P. So, the idea behind the piece is to find funds that have little or no exposure to the five tech giants.
    I was able to excerpt a few passages from the lead-in to the story that might shed more light on the story and funds she picked. I’d never invest in specific products of any kind simply because Barron’s featured them. There’s an element of “fluff” and the elicitation of “eye-balls” in most of the feature stories - especially pertaining to actively managed funds, I think. That’s not to say Barron’s doesn’t do a fine job raising important issues for investors to think about.
    “The S&P 500 is generally considered to be the best proxy for the U.S. stock market. It represents about 80% of all U.S. stocks, and it is capitalization-weighted, just like the market itself. That means the largest stocks make up a bigger portion of the index. Today, the five largest companies— Apple (ticker: AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), Amazon.com (AMZN), Facebook (FB), and Alphabet’s Google (GOOGL)—make up 22% of the S&P 500.
    “That isn’t diversified. Putting more than a fifth of your assets into five stocks isn’t diversification—and putting more than a fifth of your assets into five technology stocks is even less so. This isn’t a new phenomenon, and Barron’s has warned about the risks the tech megacaps pose to many portfolios, especially the $4.6 trillion that sits in S&P index funds. But the Big Five are showing some early signs of weakness, and those risks may be coming to bear soon, says Barron’s associate editor Reshma Kapadia.
    “So what’s an investor to do? Reshma has you covered: She found five actively managed mutual funds that own none or very little of the tech megacaps. And while that has hurt recent performance, these funds have terrific long-term track records and could serve as a good hedge if the giants start to stumble.”

    Excerpted from current issue of Barron’s - July 2021
  • Reshma Kapadia, Time for Actively Managed Mutual Funds
    From the article’s comments:
    Alejandro M
    11 hours ago
    A quote from the article:
    "She found five actively managed mutual funds that own none or very little of the tech megacaps. And while that has hurt recent performance, these funds have terrific long-term track records and could serve as a good hedge if the giants start to stumble."
    If you click on the link to her picks, you get the funds below. Let's mine the data & compare their performance to the QQQ index fund:
    Fund YTD 1 yr 2 yr 3yr 5yr 10 yr
    QQQ 14.3% 42% 92% 108% 233% 528%
    AMCPX 10.5 27 34 30 66 116
    AKREX 15.7 28 45 77 160 385
    JENSX 12.3 23 23 28 59 118
    POGRX 17.6 28 27 25 93 201
    CAMOX 19.3 42 37 26 32 53
    VS
    SPY 15.9 39 48 60 107 229
    The numbers speak for themselves. The funds not only underperformed recently but for the past 10 yrs. The risk is grossly underperforming the unmanaged QQQ & S&P 500 index funds. If you own the funds recommended your probably not a happy camper knowing this data. Follow the data points.
  • AMG to Acquire Parnassus Funds
    AMG is effectively a holding company. You may be familiar with at least a few of their funds, e.g. YACKX, TCMPX (mentioned by a few posters here as recently as 2020), BRWIX (formerly Brandywine), MGSEX (" Effective March 19, 2021, AMG Managers Special Equity Fund ... changed its name[] to AMG Veritas Asia Pacific Fund"), etc.
    Though as noted with that last fund, AMG seems to have recently overhauled a few Managers Funds. And while one can ignore the earlier name change of BRWIX, M* observed that the entire management team was just replaced in March rendering its past history meaningless.
    https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/series?sc=companyseries&type=N-PX&company=AMG
  • AMG to Acquire Parnassus Funds
    Thanks for the information! Try this link in a private window in Mozilla/Firefox/
    https://www.barrons.com/articles/amg-to-buy-parnassus-51625420672
  • AMG to Acquire Parnassus Funds
    Complete text of article from Barron's: Affiliated Managers Group, the big holding company for asset managers, has agreed to buy Parnassus Investments, the socially responsible investment firm, for $600 million, according to a person knowledgeable about the transaction.
    The move demonstrates the popularity of environmental, social, and governance, or ESG, investing. In recent years, Parnassus, based in San Francisco, has grown swiftly as the vogue for sustainable investing strengthened and as the firm developed a reputation for reliably good performance. It has five mutual funds, all fossil-fuel free.
    Sustainable investing, also known as ESG investing, has been a huge and steady trend in recent years. In 2020, nearly a quarter of all fund flows went into sustainable funds. That could gain strength as U.S. retirement plans open up to sustainable investing.
    About a third of the $51.4 trillion of U.S. assets under management is sustainably managed, according to US SIF, the trade group for the sustainable-investment industry. Indeed, a survey by investment manager Schroders found that 69% of retirement-plan participants said they would or might increase their overall contribution rate if their plan offered ESG options.
    Both Parnassus and AMG (ticker: AMG) declined to comment or confirm the terms of the transaction. The transaction is subject to the agreement of Parnassus fund shareholders.
    Parnassus is approximately 35% owned by its employees and 65% by the founder, Jerome Dodson, and his family. It oversees $47 billion. AMG invests in independent investment managers and allows them to remain independent while providing capital, distribution, and other capabilities to affiliates such as AQR Capital Management and Yacktman Asset Management. It has roughly $720 billion in assets under management.
    In recent years, some of the most venerable names in U.S. sustainable investing have been purchased by larger entities. Calvert Research & Management was acquired by Eaton Vance in 2016, which in turn was bought by Morgan Stanley (MS) this year. In 2018, Pax World Management was acquired by Impax Asset Management (IPX.London). Trillium Asset Management was purchased last year by Australian financial services company Perpetual. This year, AMG bought 15% of Boston Common Partners, while Boston Common’s management team and principals retained 85%.
    AMG has agreed to pay Parnassus $400 million in cash on closing and an additional $200 million one year later. There is an additional performance fee, according to the person familiar with the transaction. As part of the transaction, Parnassus CEO Ben Allen and chief investment officer Todd Ahlsten, both longtime employees, are signing contracts to remain with the firm. Ahlsten is also a member of the Barron’s Roundtable.
    Founder Dodson, 78, a longtime star investor, stepped back last year, leaving Parnassus Endeavor Fund (PARWX) and the funds’ board of trustees. Dodson founded Parnassus in 1984 with $350,000 from friends and family.
    Write to Leslie P. Norton at [email protected]
  • What Could Go Wrong? The Answer Isn't Exactly Obvious - Barron’s
    In 1997 my stock walked around 200 acres baa-ing or naa-ing. I had 250 shares of baa and 50 shares naa. My “stock” broker would buy the sheep and goats at last Saturday’s auction price minus 4%. In 1983, I sent a dozen lambs to market and got $100 a piece, in 1999, I sent 100 lambs and got $37 a piece. Soon all I had left was dirt and debts which will be the title to my country and western song if I ever write the lyrics. Fortunately over time the dirt grew in value enough to cover the debts with a little left over to start a handyman business in town. I will always know those years, and yes, with fond memories.
  • JULY commentary, mugs, profiles, vacation recs and more!
    “Where is the evidence that the market could "slap (you) in the face" soon? There is none. With respect, the very person who recently told us to ignore speculative comments like this has just made one himself! The facts all point to continued growth in the US stockmarket for the foreseeable future. There is absolutely zero evidence supporting the recession theory, let alone the crash theory.”
    - Posted by @Simon - January 2020
    Nobody could have foreseen the market swoon that befell us only weeks after that comment was posted. A bloody time for stocks, gold, commodities - even corporate bonds until the Federal Reserve stepped in and shored up the BBB markets. Had you been light on risk assets at the time you could have made out like a bandit buying them up in the aftermath. Possibly, the “old f’s” that hang out here were on to something with their cautious note. You’re never too old or too young to learn - young from old and old from young.
    March 9, 2020 Market Crash
  • What Could Go Wrong? The Answer Isn't Exactly Obvious - Barron’s
    Ben Levisohn writing in this week’s Barron’s:
    “Like Superman, the S&P 500 appears unstoppable … For the S&P 500, Friday’s close was its seventh high in row, the longest streak since 1997.
    https://www.barrons.com/articles/covid-19-delta-variant-stock-market-51625271990?tesla=y
    (Remember where you were or what you were doing back in 1997?)
  • Robinhood IPO Could Sound the Bell For the Market’s Top
    Provocative title from Randall Randal Forsyth’s Barron’s column this week. It’s a fascinating and lengthy look at current market conditions and investor psychology.
    Brief excerpt:
    “’Most investors also seem to view the stock market as a force of nature itself. They do not fully realize that they themselves, as a group, determine the level of the market,” Nobel laureate Robert Shiller wrote in his now-classic book Irrational Exuberance. “In short, the price level is driven to a certain extent by a self-fulfilling prophecy, based on similar hunches held by a vast cross-section of large and small investors and reinforced by news media that are often content to ratify this investor-induced conventional wisdom.”
    https://www.barrons.com/articles/robinhood-ipo-sign-stock-market-peaked-51625244300
  • Be glad you don’t own this one (PFIX)
    Here’s another one …
    http://www.funds.reuters.wallst.com/US/etfs/overview.asp?symbol=DUST.K
    DUST is down nearly 50% since inception (2010) and has lost more than 70% of its value over the last 3 years. This one bets against gold, employing 2X leverage.
    (“Rules by Which a Great Fortune May Be Reduced to a Small One”)
    With both of these funds, I think they’re meant more to be traded by experienced hands in the game than average investors. Read somewhere that some die-hard gold bulls use DUST temporarily to hedge their gains after a big run up in gold’s price. A bit disillusioning to know that some actively followed gold bulls may be shorting the stuff whille continuing to preach its virtues to their followers..
    All the above is too complex for me. I’ll stick to a conservative static allocation with occasional underweighting or over-weighting of a component plus regular rebalancing.
  • JULY commentary, mugs, profiles, vacation recs and more!
    @Simon who said:
    "There is practically nothing at all within these pages to cater for or appeal to those starting out on life's investment journey. In fact, nothing to appeal to those from 18-45. I'm 55, and Lynn Bolin's monthly articles bore the hell out of me despite their impeccable quality. I'm still seeking agressive growth.
    What's a younger invester to do?"
    Maybe said investor might consider starting the type of discussions they wish to have.
  • MultiSearch’s New Quick-and-Easy Results Table Customization
    For those of you that want to tailor your MFO Premium searches to specific metrics, say just 20 or 50 or 100 of the more than 600 data columns available, this upgrade satisfies.
    You can read more here.
  • JULY commentary, mugs, profiles, vacation recs and more!

    I dearly wish, however, that MFO wasn't almost exclusively aimed at catering for those in retirement or approaching retirement.
    There is practically nothing at all within these pages to cater for or appeal to those starting out on life's investment journey. In fact, nothing to appeal to those from 18-45. .... I'm still seeking agressive growth.
    That sounds a bit ageist, don't you think?
    Expanding on Catch's suggestion to look at the discussions:
    I've posted several comments speaking positively about Pfau and Kitces research on rising glidepaths in retirement. In a sense I've gone further, suggesting that if you're investing to leave a legacy, you might consider the heir's lifetime not your own for the investment horizon. Many, um, older people have reasons to invest as aggressively as "those starting out".
    Then there's the question of what you mean by "aggressive growth". If you're looking for a gambling table, here's a recent thread on dogecoin, appropriately titled "keep gambling ?!! Anyone buying dogecoin"
    Or perhaps you're looking for posts on the latest hot fund manager. There's been a fair amount posted on Cathy Wood, e.g.
    https://mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/57508/ark-investing-etfs-interview-with-cathy-wood
    https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/57784/digging-into-ark-innovation-s-portfolio/p1
    https://mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/57574/you-want-some-more-ark-coming-soon-to-a-choice-near-you-x
    Personally, not my cup of tea. To add to the comments of some of the posters in those threads, I find the buzz reminiscent of that surrounding Van Wagoner. All I know of Tsai is what I read in history books, but it seems there were similarities to him as well.
    "Aggressive growth" might mean building an aggressively allocated portfolio or it might mean disregarding "risk". On the former, there's been a fair amount of discussion about giving up on bonds. On the latter, I've questioned how risk is quantified, or if it even matters: "why do you care about the volatility of an investment you won't touch for a decade or more?"
  • Yahoo Quote History No Longer Includes Capital Gains
    For many years the Yahoo historical data for funds included capital gains in the "dividend" historical data. Some time in the last three months, only "dividend-dividends" appear in the amounts. (Go look at a fund that pays sometimes-whopping CG but not income like RYPNX for proof.) So back to scraping prospectuses for the data.
    For 30 years I've kept a database of weekly quote data for 50 or so funds, etfs, and indices, including distriubution data. So goes the last vestige of usefulness for Yahoo Finance for this, unless you like spam from crypto pump and dump schemes. I switched to Tiingo for my weekly quote update long ago when Yahoo dumped their finance API, and I recommend it. It's free for modest use; they seem to make money by charging for more advanced and real time data.
  • When a 59% Annual Return Just Isn’t Enough - Jason Zweig
    Got curious and found a report by Natixis about the survey. The optimism is global:
    US investors may have the highest long-term return expectations at 17.5%, but the 161% gap with the professionals’ call for returns of 6.7% looks better than what’s expected in other countries. The 157% gap in France looks considerably smaller as well (12.1% vs. 4.7%2).
    It may be surprising to say the countries where the lowest gaps are found are those where investor expectations were still more than double what advisors say is realistic. This includes 118% in Germany (10.7% vs. 4.9%2) and 120% in Canada (11.2% vs 5.1%2).
    image
    https://im.natixis.com/us/research/2021-natixis-global-survey-of-individual-investors
  • When a 59% Annual Return Just Isn’t Enough - Jason Zweig
    “Optimism is as American as hot dogs and apple pie. Too much optimism, though, is about as good for you as eating a few dozen hot dogs and slices of pie. In a recent survey of 750 U.S. individual investors, Natixis Investment Managers found these people expect to earn 17.3% this year, after inflation. That might not sound like pie in the sky. The S&P 500 returned 18.4% last year, counting dividends, and is up 15.9% so far in 2021. Recent past returns always mold future expectations.
    “Over the long run, however, the people in the Natixis survey anticipate earning an average of 17.5% annually, after inflation—even higher than for this year. That’s up from the 10.9% long-term return they expected in 2019, the previous round of the survey. It’s also more than twice the return on U.S. stocks since 1926, which has averaged 7.1% annually after inflation. It’s more than triple their 5.3% return over the same period after both inflation and taxes, according to Morningstar … The biggest winner of all over the 10 years through the end of May was Tesla Inc., up an average of 59.1% annually …”

    Full story appears in The Wall Street Journal July 3, 2021
  • Old_Skeet's Market Briefing, July 2, 2021
    Hi guys, I copied and pasted Old_Skeet's Market Briefing for July 2, 2021 from the Armchairinvesting board with his permission. Thought some of you would enjoy the read. It read as follows:
    This briefing is for the week ending July 2, 2021.
    The Index Review
    For the week the major market indices finished up for the week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up +1.02%. The S&P 500 Stock Index gained +1.67%, while the Nasdaq Composite climbed +1.94%. The Russell 2000 Small Cap Index gained +1.23%. The three best performing sectors for the week were technology +3.24%, consumer discretionary +2.07% and health care +1.99%. The 10-year US Treasury bond yield closed at 1.44% while the dividend yield on the S&P 500 Index was listed at 1.33%. Year-to-date the widely followed S&P 500 Index has gained +15.86%.
    Articles Investment Interest
    Morningstar: Q2 2021 Market Performance in 7 Charts
    https://www.morningstar.com/articles/1045559/q2-2021-market-performance-in-7-charts
    If the link fails, simply Google the article title and read through Google. Often times this works.
    How investors should reload stock gun for second half of 2021
    https://video.foxbusiness.com/v/6261767651001/
    Global Regulators Try Again to Eliminate Money-Market Hazards
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-06-30/global-regulators-try-again-to-eliminate-money-market-hazards
    Old_Skeet's Third Quarter Investment Focus
    For the third quarter my investment focus centers in the following areas of my portfolio as I look for stocks to continue an upward path while most bonds, I think, will trend lower by year end. On the equity side I plan to buy around the edges in my growth & income area and especially in funds which pay qualified dividends plus some buys in my commodity strategy fund. In my income sleeve I plan to increase my muni income fund's weighting from about a 6% to an 8% weighting over time. Should the S&P 500 Index pullback into correction territory I most likely will open a special investment position (spiff) to play the swing. Funding for these buys will come from the portfolio's income generation which has averaged about 4.4%, per year, over the past three years along with a cash draw if needed. From my perspective, cash is the best "at will" call option there is. I use the below resource links to help me determine the better times to buy on the equity side of my portfolio as I like to add to existing positions, that are under step buy construction, during market dips and pullbacks.
    Short Volume S&P 500 Index ... http://nakedshortreport.com/company/SPY
    Breadth Reading ... http://indexindicators.com/charts/sp500-vs-sp500-stocks-above-50d-sma-params-3y-x-x-x/
    S&P 500 Chart, Elder Impulse System ... http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p20881173280
    Thanks for stopping by and reading ... and, I wish all "Good Investing."
    Old_Skeet