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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • JULY commentary, mugs, profiles, vacation recs and more!
    Enjoy Western New York! We, too lived in Rochester for five years well before the wineries became so popular.
    A friend and I spent several hours in Konstantine Frank's basement "sampling" his wine with him in the 80's.
    https://www.drfrankwines.com/
    Frank singlehandedly developed the vinifera grapes in the area in the 1950's. When he started it was all Concord grapes grown for Welch's grape Jelly. I think his vineyard still has the best Chardonnays and Rieslings
    A great read for the story of the vineyards there
    "Summer in a glass" By Evan Dawson.
    https://www.amazon.com/Summer-Glass-Coming-Winemaking-Finger/dp/1402797109
  • JULY commentary, mugs, profiles, vacation recs and more!
    Re “the impending launch of a whole new series of funds from T. Rowe Price”
    I have been very impressed with TROW as a stock holding...anyone own TROW?
    https://morningstar.com/stocks/xnas/trow/quote
    Quick comparison with PRWCX, TRRBX, & TROW over the life of TRRBX.
    TROW Comparison
  • JULY commentary, mugs, profiles, vacation recs and more!
    Re “the impending launch of a whole new series of funds from T. Rowe Price”
    Can’t wait!
    image
  • Be glad you don’t own this one (PFIX)
    If you are interested, I would encourage you to read Harley Bassman's "Convexity Maven" blog. Even if you do not agree with his concerns about inflation, he is wicked smart and worth listening to. He also has a model portfolio in December with some very interesting ideas, and has been referenced frequently in Barrons, for example.
    He designed PFIX as "fire insurance" against the damage the rising interest rates can do to financial commitments that are interest rate sensitive, ie Intermediate and Long Term Bonds, or an adjustable rate mortgage for example.
    https://www.convexitymaven.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/convexity-maven-fire-insurance.pdf
    He sees this a a $50,000 insurance premium against a $1,000,000 portfolio of intermediate bonds, that will pay off if interest rates shot up. If you believe inflation is truly "transitory" then you do not need this insurance. Some of us remember the 70's, however.
    I think this represents the biggest tug of war going on now: Will inflation truly be transient, and all of the price increases are only the result of Covid disruptions to supply chains et. The "no increased rate or inflation" view is best summarized by Lacy Hunt at Hoisington Management, who believes Treasuries will continue to rally.
    But he thinks this will happen because the feds are sucking all available capital out of the system to pay for the deficit. This does not bode well for the economy either.
    Of course we might get both: Collapsing growth and higher rates ie stagflation.
  • $100 oil? Analysts share their price forecasts after a strong rally in the first half of 2021
    John said: “Increase buy enery maybe good idea
    Added more Vde yesterday”

    Yes - Buying after something’s price has rocked up 150%+ is always a good idea. Why buy a home for $200,000 when you can wait a year and get it for $500,000? Why pay $50 for a new shirt if you can have the same shirt for $150 in a year? That new car you’re looking at for $40,000 will definitely be a better buy when the price tops $100,000.
    “Chop-logic” (as one of Shakespeare’s players put it).
    Note: The chart does not reflect today’s oil price at over $75. But it does show that oil ended 2020:at around $50 after briefly falling below 0 that spring.
    image
  • Be glad you don’t own this one (PFIX)
    +1 Just the name: Simplify Interest Rate Hedge! Probably should have used a term like strategic, quantitative, analytical, research, quantum. Near a 52 week low for this fund, which probably means nothing, since the fund managers don't know anything either !
    You mean like the Quadratic Interest Rate Vltly and Infltn Hdg ETF which was Vltl-as-F recently and not the smooth portfolio 'ballast' that many expected it would be?
  • Markets, July 2 and July 5 (Monday)
    If you're fiddling about at the keyboard and thinking about clicking the BUY or SELL icon; July 2 (today) finds a normal business day for equity, and a bond market early close at 2pm.
    Monday, July 5 is a full close of U.S. markets.
    'Course other countries and other folks will still be trading.
  • Be glad you don’t own this one (PFIX)
    +1 Just the name: Simplify Interest Rate Hedge! Probably should have used a term like strategic, quantitative, analytical, research, quantum. Near a 52 week low for this fund, which probably means nothing, since the fund managers don't know anything either !
  • HYI: High Yield, No Leverage, Term Structure Fund Worth A Look
    1 year average discount 5.04 %, 1 month average discount 2.58%, so maybe a better buy when current discount reaches 6% ?
  • Be glad you don’t own this one (PFIX)
    http://www.funds.reuters.wallst.com/US/etfs/performance.asp?YYY622_G33B++xjN5AzUc4z1D4ErazCbDBLcGXIWzlyYCETzzYLmgzyAfnbo2oYm86Tdu3i
    A pundit I watch mentioned PFIX (Lipper score card above) as a potential buy 3-4 weeks ago. So I’ve been tracking it, just as I sometimes track funds folks here mention or buy.
    The idea behind this fund makes sense. Profit from the increase in interest rates everybody and his brother (or sister) expect to be coming by shorting longer dated bonds. This fund attempts to do that. I haven’t studied the mechanics. And don’t own it. Judging by the dismal 4 week results it must be using some leverage.
    Since inception (May 10, 2021): -18.9%
    Last 4 weeks: -13%
    Not to flagellate a fund (or anyone who might have thought it a good idea). But might be sobering, possibly instructive, for all of us to consider the difficulty “calling” interest rates. Just because everybody agrees they’re going to rise doesn’t mean they will - at least anytime soon.
  • donuts or DNUTS to day ?
    For the life of me. I don’t understand the appeal of donuts in this day & age. What’s the nutritional value of a donut? What’s the calorie count? I think I can honestly say I haven’t eaten one in at least 25 years. There’s a legion of serious health complications associated with being seriously overweight.
    No thanks.
  • Wasatch Long/Short Alpha Fund in registration
    How in the world can anyone short anything in this market ...
    You might as well ask how in the world anyone can underweight anything in this market. Easy, because some securities perform better than others. Shorting just takes underweighting a step further. Do you remember 130/30 funds?
    The rationale for the concept had a degree of logic. A 130/30 fund combines a gross long position of 130 per cent with a short position of 30 per cent, meaning it still has the same 100 per cent net exposure to the market as a traditional long-only fund.
    However, long-only managers can only underweight, not short, stocks they do not like. This leaves little room to generate outperformance from these stocks, particularly if they are say, only 0.1 per cent of the index.
    https://www.ft.com/content/fdbf6284-b724-11e2-841e-00144feabdc0
    It doesn't matter whether the shorted stocks go up or down. What matters is that they don't do as well as the stocks purchased with the proceeds from shorting them.
    That article goes on to note:
    "The problem came when many asset managers discovered they did not have the necessary skills to short,” says Amin Rajan, chief executive of Create Research, a consultancy. “It’s a very specialised skill. It’s more a psychological than academic discipline.”
    If one uses shorting to time the market rather than to magnify the impact of stock picking skills, it's easy to get burned:
    While some mainstream fund managers periodically have shorted stocks - Mario Gabelli of the Gabelli funds and CGM's Kenneth Heebner come to mind - most have shied away from it.
    The late 1990s story of manager Jim Crabbe and his Crabbe-Huson Special fund illustrates why. Crabbe-Huson Special (eventually sold to Liberty Funds Distributors, now part of FleetBoston Financial) adopted shorting provisions in the mid-1990s to guard against a downturn. But Crabbe got bearish early, going short on technology stocks just as they rocketed to new heights. From 1995 through 1999, the fund lost more than 20 percent, while the Standard & Poor's 500 index was up roughly 200 percent; years of gains in the fund were wiped out.
    https://www.baltimoresun.com/news/bs-xpm-2002-10-13-0210120267-story.html
  • Wasatch Long/Short Alpha Fund in registration
    Will be interesting to see how this one performs;expense ratio of 1.75% for investor shares is competitive for this market segment.
  • Wall Street powers through the first half of 2021 with U.S. stocks at record highs
    … with investors defying pessimistic projections .. and pushing past concerns of rising inflation and potential rate hikes. The Dow Jones industrial average advanced more than 210.22 points …The S&P 500 … chalked up its 34th record finish of the year. The tech-heavy Nasdaq dropped 24.38 points.
    “A day earlier, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq set all-time highs,highlighting Wall Street’s optimism for economic recovery —reinvigorated by widespread vaccinations, businesses ramping up operations and consumers eager to spend …
    “Kristina Hooper, the chief global market strategist at Invesco, emphasized the dramatic changes … which have help (sic) fuel an economic comeback. Wall Street also has been bolstered by significant spending from Congress and aggressive monetary policy …

    Good write-up for those who like their financial news served hot.
    Strong Verbs “Weak verbs can tell your reader what’s happening, but only strong verbs can catapult them right into the action.”
    Does the WP have a stockpile of negatively connotative verbs stored somewhere for those occasional bad market days?
    Maybe something like this:
    Stunned traders raced for the exits as major indexes plunged more than 20% in the first few minutes of frantic trading Friday. Bloodied, but determined, one shocked investor vowed to “go all in”, even as as his legs began to tremble and panic permeated the air …
  • Wall Street powers through the first half of 2021 with U.S. stocks at record highs
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2021/06/30/stock-markets-today-june-2021/
    *Wall Street powers through the first half of 2021 with U.S. stocks at record highs
    The Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq are up by double digits this year, as investors pushed past inflation and rate hike fears*
    We are hoping for 2nd best half
  • Withdrawals from your TSP plan
    I had no idea.
    The Washington Post
    Personal Finance
    Your retirement with Michelle Singletary.
    A reality TV couple wanted to ‘bless’ Black people suffering financially. The FTC says it was a pyramid scheme.
    A Texas couple once featured on an OWN network reality show “Family or Fiance,” promised people they could get a financial blessing of 800 percent in as little as a week.
    It turns out they were running a pyramid scheme that targeted and then bilked Black people affected by the pandemic, according to two lawsuits filed against the Black couple.
    In a joint complaint filed on June 16, the Federal Trade Commission and the state of Arkansas accused Marlon and LaShonda Moore of operating a pyramid scheme program called “Blessings In No Time,” or BINT. The Texas attorney general also has filed a lawsuit against the couple for scamming needy Black families.
    For an upfront fee of $1,400 or $1,425, participants were told they could receive a return of $11,200 or $11,400 respectively — eight times their contribution to a “blessing loom.”
    “In general, these schemes falsely promise a big return — or as BINT termed it, being ‘blessed out’ — following a modest initial payment,” the FTC and Arkansas complaint said. “In reality, however, very few consumers make any money. And the few consumers that do make money sometimes lose their profits by reinvesting in the scheme.”
    Marlon Moore is known as DJ ASAP, which he says in marketing materials stands for “Always Serve A Purpose.” Participants said in interviews that the couple often chastised people for not recruiting enough. And in one call, they tried to discredit my reporting and warnings about pyramids schemes, one participant said.
    Attempts to contact the Moores were unsuccessful.
    Coretta Vanterpool of Florida said she lost close to $13,000. In total, Vanterpool said she and the family members she recruited were out $30,000. Others paid as much as $62,700 to participate in BINT, according to the FTC.
    Vanterpool said she was told that an initial contribution of $1,425 would net her a “blessing” of $11,400 in seven to 10 days. To make even more money, she paid for multiple places on the blessing loom board. She was going to use the money to help pay down some of her $50,000 in student loans.
    “They just made it sound so real, so nice,” said Vanterpool, whose nephew recruited her. “Since he received his first payment, he thought it was legit. A lot of people came in because they had been furloughed or they had lost their jobs. Their companies had closed. A couple of ladies were about to lose their homes. I met one lady through the group who was trying to get the money so she could pay for chemotherapy.”
    The type of fraudulent schemes alleged in the complaint go by various names — sou-sou, gifting circle, money board, or blessing loom. The illegal operations borrow the principles of legitimate sou-sous, informal savings clubs that have cultural roots in West Africa, the Caribbean and other immigrant communities.
    In the real-deal saving circles, groups are small. People pool their money, taking turns receiving a payout. But they don’t get back more money than they put into the pot. It’s more like a forced savings program with accountability partners.
    The hallmark of an unlawful pyramid scheme hinges on two key elements: You are asked to pay an upfront entry fee with the expectation of a significant payout, and you have to recruit others to do the same.
    Typically, people are relentlessly pushed to recruit. There are steps or levels of the circle or octagon that lead to a center, which is when you are supposed to get your payout. The core of the con is that you’ll get a substantial “gift” relative to what you put up from people joining after you. The whole enterprise eventually collapses, and the last folks coming in — the wide base of the pyramid — lose their money.
    Here’s why these scams work. Some participants get the promised payout. They in turn share testimonies of their substantial gains. But after several rounds of this fraudulent scheme, the money dries up because not enough new people are recruited who are willing to make upfront payments.
    I’ve been reporting the rise of illegal pyramid schemes since last summer as desperate folks started looking for quick ways to make money. Promoters often target certain communities in which they share an affinity. Black promoters, for example, have been exploiting the disenfranchisement that many African Americans are feeling, especially those who have lost jobs because of the coronavirus. The operators get recruits to drag in family and friends, fellow church members and co-workers.
    The message of building Black wealth that the Moores espoused resonated with people, the lawsuits said.
    “People were really vulnerable, just ready for any kind of hope,” one California woman who was involved in BINT said in an interview. “They were talking about building a Black community and building generational wealth. Those are the catchphrases now. They were just kind of selling people a dream.”
    I asked Vanterpool how she felt recruiting family members who lost money.
    “It hurts because I brought someone else into a situation that they didn’t have to be in when they were already suffering,” she said. “I’ve put in money that I really don’t have that I should have just used for what it was for and that was for my loans. Now I’m starting back at square one and hoping and praying that I’ll get this money back.”
    Reader Question of the Week
    If you have a personal finance or retirement question, send it to [email protected]. In the subject line put “Question of the Week.” Please note that questions may be edited for clarity.
    Q: As a federal civil service employee, I heard that when I retire, I can’t specify which Thrift Savings Plan fund (e.g., C fund or G fund) I can withdraw from. It sounds like any amount I withdraw will be from all funds that I have invested in. Is this true?
    A: For those not familiar with the federal government’s workplace retirement plan it’s called the Thrift Savings Plan or TSP, which is available to federal employees and members of the uniformed services, including the Ready Reserve.
    TSP generally offers the same types of savings and tax benefits that many private corporations offer their employees under their 401(k) or similar plans.
    If you have a TSP and will be tapping the funds, you should read “Withdrawing from Your TSP Account.”
    You can leave your entire account balance in the TSP after you leave federal government service if the balance is $200 or more.
    The options in the TSP include the following:
    G Fund – Government Securities Investment Fund
    F Fund - Fixed Income Index Investment Fund
    C Fund - Common Stock Index Investment Fund
    S Fund - Small cap stock Index investment fund
    I Fund - International Stock Index Investment Fund
    L (Lifecycle) Funds - A diversified mix of the five core funds (G, F, C, S, and I)
    So, as to the question, can you withdraw from specific TSP funds? The answer is no. Distributions are taken proportionately from each fund.
    When participants retire, they can specify whether they want to withdraw solely from their traditional (pre-tax) balance or from their Roth money. But, “the withdrawal will come from all of the funds,” said Kim Weaver, director of external affairs at the Federal Retirement Thrift Investment Board. “A participant cannot specify which fund she or he wants to withdraw from.”
    Weaver said participants can rebalance their accounts with an interfund transfer if they want to, pre or post-withdrawal.
    Two years ago, there were major changes to withdrawal options for TSP account holders. Here’s a Washington Post article that explained the changes:
    Federal employees have more withdrawal choices for their retirement savings
  • Dalio*s skewed views
    Let's say you have a money manager with a $100 million fund that goes up, say, 200% in one year. Say, $10 billion of new money pours into the fund as a result. The hedge fund manager charges a 2% expense ratio. The next year the fund is down 50%. By the end of the year say he has $3 billion as some investors have redeemed their shares. He still made well over $6 million in fees that year. The thing about funds is they're essentially toll roads and managers get paid whether they do well or poorly. Why am I posting this here? Because today's investment "genius," may be tomorrow's fool, yet he'll still be a billionaire at the end of the day. The genius is getting people to believe in his toll road, not in the accuracy of his predictions. The problem is some extremely wealthy managers start to believe their own hype. Worse, they think their narrow expertise extends beyond securities markets to other realms such as politics.