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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Any predictions upon what day the DJI tops 40,000?
    :) Not sure where I am …
    Likely 40 / 30 / 30 Equity / Bond / Other
    (or something along those lines)
    Re Electronic online gambling in Michigan - Markets are so exciting haven’t even bothered to watch a BB game or wager on anything.
    Re DFKG / Per earlier post, unloaded small position around 11/6 after NY approved their operation - but with a 51% state tax on earnings. Since than it has fallen from the mid $40s to under $39 at one point this morning. Hope folks aren’t sitting on a big slug by way of C Wood’s Ark fund.
    Wishing Catch and everybody here investing success!
  • Any predictions upon what day the DJI tops 40,000?
    36,280 this morning +200 points for the day. At that rate, the 40,000 mark would be accomplished around December 1.
    Anybody think before Thanksgiving?
    Anybody see 50,000 by year end?
  • A Flexible Fund Adept at Finding Income - FMSDX / by Lewis Braham in Barron’s
    I have treated it as moderate-allocation, not conservative-allocation. I see that now M*, Fido, etc have also moved it from Allocation 30-50% (that was misclassification) to Allocation 50-70%.
  • T. Rowe Price Summit Program
    @Roy, you brought up excellent point. We consolidated our brokerage and mutual accounts a number years ago for ease of tracking to two large brokerages. So we have to reconsider this announcement from TRP since we already invested in a number of their excellent funds. The ability to invest in their institutional shares at $50K is quite tempting, plus other offering. At Vanguard, one can purchase Pimco institutional shares at $25K instead of $1M (thanks to @msf). At present, we are evaluating the pros and cons of each brokerages and which one would fit our long term needs. My experience of transfer process with TRP was slow, but that was over 5 years ago.
    With regards to Grandeur Peak funds, you can purchase their institutional shares at much lower minimum at many brokerages with a transaction fee. The $ minimum is set at the agreement between Grandeur Peak and that specific brokerages. Since Grandeur Peak funds invest in small to mid cap space, it poses challenges to existing investors when the funds closed, where one cannot purchase additional shares from their brokerages. One can transfer their shares to Grandeur Peak but that is not something I wish to do in the long run.
    Also, I am trying to
    look at what is under the hood of TRP brokerage but am having issue finding it for comparing to brokerages I am currently using. No luck by calling their customer service.
  • Needham Small Cap Growth
    The institutional class, NESIX, has a lower ER than MSSMX and Schwab only requires a minimum investment of $2500/$1000 with a TF. (Fido, unfortunately, has a $100K minimum.)
    NESIX is also available at T Rowe Price brokerage for a minimum of $1000 and NTF.
    Though I like the strategy very much, its 44 stock portfolio is not without the occasional risk. Its 3.23% weighting in Telos Corp suffered yesterday as their shares lost 28%.
  • World Stock Funds-Are they a viable alternative?
    +1 Yes-you could have done a lot worse than paying the 3 and 5% load on FCNTX and SGENX in the early 1990's and staying in those fund sthe last 30 years !
  • World Stock Funds-Are they a viable alternative?
    Couple thoughts. Not my expertise.
    - If I were very young and saving for 25+ years out, a good actively managed time tested global fund is what I’d use. Heck, with a 25-35 year time horizon until even the first withdrawal, that’s about all I’d use. TEMWX was a great fund in the 70s and for several years beyond. (Went downhill after Franklin took over).
    - Here’s one of the first things I learned from our plan’s advisor (whom I don’t begrudge for the 4% commission he was raking in). Says Bob: “Global’s better because if the U.S. becomes overvalued they’ll simply take the money and move it to other areas of the world that aren’t overvalued.” Made sense to me than and still does.
    - You might already be invested in a global fund without realizing it. Recently I looked at the Lipper stats for sedate conservative PRSIX which I’ve long held. It’s currently invested 61% in North America. I can pin down about 25% shown to be on other continents. Doesn’t add up to 100. Might be that the fund’s substantial cash & “other” holdings aren’t assigned to any particular geographic area.
  • 10 Mistakes...
    ...Every Investor makes.
    Courtesy of Peter Lynch:

  • T. Rowe Price Summit Program
    TRP is trying to get some of their bigger investors away from the online mutual fund supermarkets so they can reduce the amount of their management fees they have to pay to Fidelity, Schwab, etc.
    For several years I've considered returning our accounts directly to TRP out of loyalty and appreciation for the excellent investment management our accounts have received through PRWCX and Giroux. Around 80% of our investments are in TRP funds (primarily PRWCX). I moved our accounts first to TDA and now at Schwab, why should they be getting a big chunk of the management fees, what are they adding to our investment returns in those funds?
    But, up until now there has been no personal financial incentive otherwise to make the move back to TRP. Now that the new Summit program has dramatically lowered the hurdle to access institutional shares ($50,000 rather than $1 million) at the lower ER and also gives access to closed funds like PRNHX, I'm seriously considering making the move. Any non-TRP funds we want to invest in can still be done so through a TRP brokerage account. Being able to park our investments in the institutional shares will potentially add TENS OF THOUSANDS OF DOLLARS to our returns over the next number of decades if we are blessed to live that long.
    I've wondered why more fund shops haven't followed the lead of organizations like Grandeur Peak who will let shareholders purchase the cheaper institutional shares at far lower minimums if they invest directly with the fund rather than through brokers. Kudos to TRP for finally coming around.
    Please let me know if I am overlooking something here.
  • Preparing For The Grizzly Bear
    +1 old joe If I was as successful as FD, I would be sharing a $50 million yacht parked off St Bart's with Shakira, Zoe Saldana or Halle Berry !
  • Inflation
    Here's an interesting and perhaps unprecedented factor that's helping to drive inflation- huge increases in warehousing costs.
    "In a matter of a year, warehousing rents in some markets have doubled. Brand-new buildings that would normally sit vacant for months are selling space before they're finished."

    ➤ Link to PBS article

  • Preparing For The Grizzly Bear
    Love "experts" predictions, see (link)
    Example: In 05/2012 (article)
    Question:You have become famous for your cyclically adjusted 10-year price/earnings ratio. What do the latest numbers say about future stock market returns?
    Shiller: we found a correlation between that ratio and the next 10 years' return.
    If you plug in today's P/E of about 22, it would be predicting something like an annualized 4% return after inflation.
    FD: reality, the SP500 made 15+% average anually since that date and much better than countries with lower PE10.
    ==============
    I would love if markets collapse because I would be out. I have been doing it for years and why my biggest loss from any top since 2018 was less than 1%. I made money every week in March of 2020.
    How do I know? VIX is one of my indicators, the rest is in a lock box.
    The key is to be mostly invested. I'm in the market at 99+%(never cash) at 90+% of the time.
  • SS increase: what to do
    @Crash-in the above comment, "to be held harmless" means that your SS benefit (net of Medicare deduction) will be the same as the prior year, that is no change. Probably most will not be affected by this, since their SS increase will be more than the $21.60 increase in Medicare each month, considering that 5.9 % is a rather large SS increase.
  • Let the SS COLA Projections for 2022 Begin
    Your tax dollars at work.
    Well, yes. Part B premiums cover about 1/4 of the cost of providing health care to participants. Tax dollars pay for the other 3/4. So the government is increasing the tax dollars it is contributing toward recipients' care from $445.50/mo (3 x $148.50) to $510.30.
    Medicare is one of the only places in which the government has actively sought to hold down medical costs. That's true even in the ACA, where despite the hype, most of the cost containment measures were on the Medicare side.
    You're right that in some areas Congress doesn't have a backbone. For example, deferred and then eliminated the Cadillac tax.
  • SS increase: what to do
    In a sense, the whole claims system is a game. The insurers do everything they can to come up with excuses to deny or delay paying the fair amount on claims.
    My doctor's office had a claim denied because they had not stated explicitly that the coding was in ICD-10 (the current coding system) rather than ICD-9, which had been obsolete for years. They had to refile with no changes, just a declaration that it was coded correctly.
    Medicare Advantage insurers game the government by trying to make their customers appear as sick as possible. The way the system works, "To provide an incentive for insurers to cover sicker patients, the plans are paid commensurately more for their care."
    So the insurers push customers to accept a one time in-home visit from an insurer's clinician to find any condition that would get the insurer more money. Of course that's not what the insurers tell their customers the visit is for. And it raises all our costs.
    "If you are healthy and the visit results in an increased risk score, you won’t have to pay more for your care. But the higher Medicare reimbursement your insurer receives may contribute to the nation’s rising health care costs."
    https://www.health.harvard.edu/blog/medicare-advantage-when-insurance-companies-make-house-calls-201512168844
    In this game, I find I'm more on the side of the providers. Especially PCPs, where as @sma3 noted, margins are razor thin. Which is not to say that I haven't seen gross abuses of the system by providers. But I haven't seen nearly the level of nickel and diming that the insurers do that drives up administrative costs. Just MHO.
  • Old_Skeet's November 2021 Market Briefings
    Hi Pudd,
    Thanks for stopping by.
    Comments and quetions for Old_Skeet should be directed to him on the Big Bang Board. I believe his handle "Old_Skeet" is still in "timeout" on the MFO Board.
    Here is what I was able to locate for your questions. This is my thinking not saying that it is correct as applied to VYCAX.
    Q: What is float adjusted market cap?
    A: "The number of shares used for calculation is the number of shares "floating", rather than outstanding. An index that is weighted in this manner is said to be "float-adjusted" or "float-weighted", in addition to being cap-weighted. For example, the S&P 500 index is both cap-weighted and float-adjusted."
    Q: What do options do for the fund?
    A: "Options speculation allows a trader to hold a leveraged position in an asset at a lower cost than buying shares of the asset. Investors use options to hedge or reduce the risk exposure of their portfolios. In some cases, the option holder can generate income when they buy call options or become an options writer."
    Assumption: Options lower the cost to position and maintain the fund within target ranges as it rebalances positions quarterly. In this rebalance process, most times, the fund generates capital gains (a source of income) which are subject to taxation on the share holder. In addition, the fund pays a dividend.
    Best regards,
  • T. Rowe Price Summit Program
    Here's the benefits sheet on the old Select Client Services.
    https://individual.troweprice.com/staticFiles/Retail/Shared/PDFs/FullBenefits.pdf
    Something else missing on the new Summit Program benefits sheet is Turbotax. The online version was free at the $250K level, and downloaded products were free at the $1M level.
    I'd say that they were more targeting the mass affluent than the high net worth investors. Really, is that free subscription to Kiplinger's Personal Finance at the $1M level going to get you to double your $500K investment with them?
  • T. Rowe Price Summit Program
    $250k seems to be lot of dough for the privilege of getting TRP’s closed funds.
    As you know, Vanguard investors need $1M (Flagship status) to access certain closed Vanguard funds.
  • SS increase: what to do
    Many European countries do not use single payer systems.
    Everyone in France must buy health insurance, sold by a number of nonprofit funds [i.e. multiple payers]. ...
    Switzerland has a universal health care system, requiring all to buy insurance. The plans resemble those in the United States under the Affordable Care Act: offered by private insurance companies, community rated and guaranteed-issue, with prices varying by things like breadth of network, size of deductible and ease of seeing a specialist.
    https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/09/18/upshot/best-health-care-system-country-bracket.html
    See also: International Health Systems for Single Payer Advocates
    https://www.pnhp.org/single_payer_resources/international_health_systems_for_single_payer_advocates.php
    Even with a single payer system (e.g. original Medicare), providers would still need to code claims to receive payment for services rendered:
    What are ICD Diagnosis Codes Used For?
    Help Medicare claims paying offices process Medicare claims
    https://www.cms.gov/Medicare/Coordination-of-Benefits-and-Recovery/Mandatory-Insurer-Reporting-For-Non-Group-Health-Plans/NGHP-Training-Material/Downloads/ICD-Diagnosis-Code-Requirements-Part-I.pdf (see slide 5)
    Codings are used not just for billing purposes but to keep accurate records and communicate clearly. From the UK's National Health Service, describing a coder's job:
    You begin by recording the stay of an elderly woman who had a hip operation two days ago. From her medical notes, you find out the ward she stayed on before surgery, how long her operation took, her recovery time and any other treatment she received. Then you use the special alphanumeric code you've been trained in and record everything on the computer system.
    These records can be understood throughout the NHS and used to plan for future patient care.
    https://www.stepintothenhs.nhs.uk/careers/clinical-coder