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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Why Are Republican Presidents So Bad for the Economy?
    Crash asserted nonsense and I called him on it with substantiation. Then he started handwaving about a just society but calling for more flunking of kids.
    Whatever.
    Racqueteer, this may not be the best month to trot out the tired bootstraps argument yet again. It does remain perennially popular among some of us nonminority types, and even among some minorities too. Why can't everyone be like the Jews and the Asians and others similarly situated? What racism? What structural inequality?
    As for my career, I have been a teen worker, HS teacher, university TA, and most recently sometime HS coach and sub. Also parent and grandparent. Also married to an elem-schoolteacher for a decade. I do know the gut feeling of being in a difficult classroom. It all can be very discouraging, not to say difficult to have insights about.
    But I know that this is pernicious crap at the talk-radio level: 'You can't solve real, significant problems --- not at the root --- by throwing money at those problems.'
    The problem, to me, with BOTH sides is the unwillingness to bend from some absolutist stance. To my way of thinking, everyone is entitled to a fair chance. That may entail more help to some individuals than others. Ultimately, however, good intentions aside, I can't MAKE someone do what is necessary to be successful. And, like the reality or not, the society in which one lives has a huge impact on the outcome. Money is almost certainly an issue, but attitude on ALL sides is as well. "Throwing money" at a problem isn't the same thing as properly funding productive strategies. If we as a society were actually serious about the issue, we'd have better pay in hard to staff districts than in affluent ones. We have just the opposite. Further, it would be more 'help' to struggling students to have classrooms which are orderly (disciplined) than not.
    Having spent almost 30 years teaching mostly chemistry and physics in a heavily minority district, I know that I was drawing my classes from about half the population. Even THAT population was underperforming its potential; a situation which became WORSE over my career, Discipline issues became a greater and greater issue as time went by; since the schools didn't want to have 'bad statistics'. This despite the fact that, in a class of 1,000 students, there were probably only a dozen kids accounting for 75% of the serious instances. Instead of controlling THOSE kids, 'we' lightened up on enforcement and the problem spread.
    I don't want ANY kids to fail, but the reality is that, if you set standards, SOME will not meet them. The 'solution' isn't to lower the standards so that EVERYONE 'succeeds'. If you don't end up actually KNOWING anything, how is that 'succeeding'? Anyway, by all means, make it possible TO succeed, but don't expect that you can make everyone DO it.
  • Why Are Republican Presidents So Bad for the Economy?
    David, if you're not a teacher (and have never been one?), you can't begin to argue the issue with any insight.
    Gotta admit, I stopped reading your post there.
    Following that logic (?), do you also hold that if you've never played professional sports, you can't possibly be an insightful professional sports commentator, writer or analyst? Or is that somehow different? And if so, how?
    Lemme know so that I can wash my brain of anything I ever learned from Vince Scully, Bob Costas, Tom Verducci, Paul Zimmerman...
    Me, I went to school for ~20 years, have two relatives (both with PhDs) who taught for years, am married almost 45 years to a retired school teacher, live in a neighborhood overstocked with retired school teachers, and have audited the books of about 20-25 schools. But, OK, I've never been a teacher. Do I, and others with similar bios, also NOT have any insight on the issue?
    Fair enough, Stillers; I made too sweeping a statement going in. I would suggest that the cases you cite involve people who either have, or have access to, direct knowledge of the field involved. I submit that opinions tend to be less valid if not supported by actual evidence and experience. If you could be bothered to go beyond that flawed introduction, I'd be interested in your thoughts.
  • Diversifying with Bond Funds
    Hello... 65% of Mama portfolio comprised of FBND. BND, fidelity2020 Fpifx, fidelitycash FCASH, and trp2020 funds TRRBX
    She has many private bond corps from Ford att tmobile GM BAC
    Btw most cash CD/ yields are extremely low now so unclear if these are good vehicles going forward
    Kind regards
  • Long M* Interview with PRWCX's David Giroux
    I just tried to purchase ITCSX at Schwab, and was told fund wasn't available at Schwab, so now I'm confused? Schwab does offer FLOTX which is one of the least risky Floating Rate Bond funds with $2500 minimum and transaction fee.
  • Long M* Interview with PRWCX's David Giroux
    ITCSX is open at Schwab No load /with a fee - annual returns going back ten years within .05 -.15 basis points below PRWCX - Most likely as a result of the slightly higher ER .
  • Wealthtrack - Weekly Investment Show - with Consuelo Mack
    Feb 5th, 2021 episode:
    RYSEX is ranked #58th by US NEWS (Vanguard Funds are ranked #1,2,&3):
    https://money.usnews.com/funds/search?category=small-value

  • Diversifying with Bond Funds
    David Giroux (PRWCX) suggest Floating Rate loans (Leveraged Loans or Bank Loans). TRP price manages RPIFX (see if you can get around the $1M minimum) or PRFRX ($2500).
    Link to Bank Loan Mutual Funds:
    https://money.usnews.com/funds/mutual-funds/rankings/bank-loan
  • Why Are Republican Presidents So Bad for the Economy?
    David, if you're not a teacher (and have never been one?), you can't begin to argue the issue with any insight.
    Gotta admit, I stopped reading your post there.
    Following that logic (?), do you also hold that if you've never played professional sports, you can't possibly be an insightful professional sports commentator, writer or analyst? Or is that somehow different? And if so, how?
    Lemme know so that I can wash my brain of anything I ever learned from Vince Scully, Bob Costas, Tom Verducci, Paul Zimmerman...
    Me, I went to school for ~20 years, have two relatives (both with PhDs) who taught for years, am married almost 45 years to a retired school teacher, live in a neighborhood overstocked with retired school teachers, and have audited the books of about 20-25 schools. But, OK, I've never been a teacher. Do I, and others with similar bios, also NOT have any insight on the issue?
  • Long M* Interview with PRWCX's David Giroux
    VOYA version appears to be an annuity fund;not available for sale at the 5 brokerage platforms I reviewed.
  • Small Caps
    As I’ve noted... I’m in a fair number of MS funds... They have been @stillers for me (oops I mean Stellar) for me the last couple of years. This year looks strong as well. @BenWP shared a really interesting Baron EOY report which led me to this story: https://www.barrons.com/articles/more-than-two-dozen-funds-returned-more-than-100-last-year-heres-why-thats-not-good-news-51612570231
    It seems to be a quick generalization of why Morgan Stanley funds have had such terrific returns as of late. It also implies that they may just be lucky by selecting a few high flyers like Fastly and Stitch Fix and the writer opines that the long term performance is not as as consistent with MS funds. I always appreciate alternate views to mine. So I’ll continue to keep an eye on my MS funds but perhaps it wasn’t just sheer luck. Perhaps they are on a consistent long term path of identifying real winners. The performance in small caps, growth and International is something to marvel at.
  • Long M* Interview with PRWCX's David Giroux
    @Crash, you have it right. I've never known this fund to short by any significant percentage if at all. It is also my largest fund holding.
    David's info would classify this as a market neutral fund which it certainly isn't. Per Schwab, the portfolio has about 1% short in equity and other, which I'm guessing is typical of any fund. It is fairly concentrated in that it's top 10 holdings make up about 57% of assets (assets = bonds and equity), 31 % of that being in equity. But to me that is not outrageous.
    I don't really know where puts and sell call options list-out as long or short holdings, but could that be some of the confusion? Or could the short holdings be leveraged bond holdings. Maybe @msf might know.
  • Long M* Interview with PRWCX's David Giroux
    So a simpleton like me ... reads the paragraph on ‘Duration Risk” that @bee references above... and where Paul says to ‘take duration risk in your equity sleeve” ... and my take away is: be careful with long term bond funds and if you have a longer investing horizon/duration, stick with equities.
    But then I realized that I’ve never heard of equity duration risk. What is it? It turns out it’s quite complicated: https://www.ipe.com/equity-duration-how-viable/17520.article
    This interview is really educational and the posts by bee too.
  • Why Grantham Says the Next Crash Will Rival 1929, 2000
    Wasn't it FD100 who said VXX over 30 get ready, over 35 start selling, over 40 RUN !!
    What about on the downside?
    I love Grantham's letters and long discussions of what the rational thing to do is. But the market is not rational. If it were all we would need is one index fund.
    I thought Henry Blodgett's 1998 call to buy Amazon at $240 was nuts.
    I always thought I should run a mutual fund that does the exact opposite of what I do in the Market.
  • Why Grantham Says the Next Crash Will Rival 1929, 2000
    GMO should hide in the closet. Their predictions since 2010 are so off the mark. In 12/31/2010, they predicted that US LC would make 2.9%, the SP500 made over 14% in the next 7 years. They said that EM would be better and they trail by a huge margin.(link).
    Grantham is a bear for years. It's always "news" calling for a bear market. The 24/7 media machine wants you to read these articles and how they get paid.
    But hey, Gundlach predicted the 10 years treasury would be at 6% in 2021. Arnott told us that his massive research works and PAUIX had a terrible performance. Bogle told us regression to the mean must happen, and it didn't.
    2010: GMO's Grantham Warns of a Stock Bubble(link) WRONG
    2012: “People think the American market is very cheap. We don’t. Grantham is bullish about international stocks. (link) WRONG
    2014: Grantham: Big Stock Bubble ‘Will End Badly’ in 2016 (link) WRONG
    I never listen to any predictions. As a trader I only pay attention to prices, charts and trends lately and NOW. They tell me in real time what the market is doing. In the last 10 years I was invested at 99+% of my money at 97% of the time. The key for me is to invest all my money all the time and no cash, BUT, when risk is high to be in a high % of cash for days to several weeks.
  • Small Caps
    Taxes. BIG problem for lots of investors, and as you've described for many MSSMX shareholders. Fortunate enough to have successfully executed a life-long investment strategy to still have 95% in tax-deferred a/c's post-Medicare age. Hold only a few munis outside the umbrella.
    All that said, trusting there are far worse problems these days than paying taxes on out-sized gains.
  • Small Caps
    Awesome find @MikeW. Thanks for sharing.
    Helps answer the question, "After being UP ~150% in 2020, what can you possibly do for an encore?"
  • Why Are Republican Presidents So Bad for the Economy?
    >> You can't solve real, significant problems--- not at the root--- by throwing money at those problems.
    Oh, come on! This is simply not true. Why do you assert bunk like that? There are lots of data and hard outcome studies, from Head Start to forms of UBI and WIC / food-related cash to affirmative action showing lasting outcome differences. But you know this. From reading tutors to police training to arts subsidies. The list is endless.
    https://www.givedirectly.org/research-on-cash-transfers/
    https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2017/08/07/541609649/how-to-fix-poverty-why-not-just-give-people-money
    must see what the followups show
  • Long M* Interview with PRWCX's David Giroux
    Paul Massaro Article on Fixed Income:
    uncovering-opportunities-noninvestment-grade-credit
    On Duration Risk:
    ... if you're going to take duration risk, take duration risk in your equity sleeve, not in your fixed-income sleeve. Duration risk in equities is really cheap, given how attractive utilities are priced today relative to investment-grade or Treasuries
    On Holdings:
    But you can't outperform by 400 basis points a year or 300 basis points per year if you have 100 stocks. It's very, very hard to do that. You really need to be a little more concentrated.
    TRP's Floating Rate Fund = PRFRX
    Market inefficiencies...
    GARP-y Stocks = Growth At Reasonable Price
    -13% of the S&P 500 (according to Giroux)
    https://investopedia.com/terms/g/garp.asp
    I think what drives in many respects the multiple companies is a little bit supply and demand. So, the reason why this 13% of the S&P 500 that I call GARP, trades where it does, and it should trade higher, is that a value manager will often look and say, Well, these companies, they trade for 10% or 20% premium to the market, that’s too expensive, so I can't invest in those stocks. Growth manager says, you know what, these companies, they're only growing organically like 4% or 5% organically. I want to own companies that are growing 10% organically.
    So, in many cases, there's no natural buyer for these companies. So, that depresses their valuation to a level where, again, if you think about the market, the market, typically, in non-recession years, grows earnings at 6% to 7% kind of clip, gives you a 2% dividend yield. So, for a small premium to that, which you'd able to generate, is find the companies that are growing earnings at 10% plus, maybe a little bit more dividend yield, and have much less downside risk, because there's an inefficiency. The two big market participants kind of shunned these companies a little bit. So, what happens is, over time, they just compound wealth, and in many cases, the market becomes a little bit smarter over time and says, Oh, it used to trade for 18 times earnings, but it's actually a really good company, and you should trade for 20 or 21 times or 22 times. So, you get the compounding of the earnings and the dividend and usually, like the multiple expands.