A visual video graph of the shift from growth to value 2020-2021

M* on the growth of Value that’s been happening since Sep 2020.
https://www.morningstar.com/articles/1039812/value-funds-strike-back
The death of the growth vs value debate?:
https://www.ft.com/content/cb16a4d0-dfcc-4ae1-ad97-a962f24640d6
Fund managers see more rotation into Value
https://www.reuters.com/business/fund-managers-see-value-cyclical-stocks-running-further-despite-slow-us-jobs-2021-05-07/
Previous skeptics predict Value has further to go.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-05-11/value-investing-is-a-winner-from-the-tech-wreck-on-wall-street

Hi @Roy
From Golubs thread of MUTUAL FUNDS WHY .....
You wrote: Moderate allocation fund, PRWCX as mentioned in the past holds the bulk of our investments. Never used an ETF to this point which doesn't mean we may not sometime in the future. I have looked at allocation ETFs in the past to compare to PRWCX and have been left wanting. Thus, actively managed mutual fund over an ETF.
Haven't looked at MA ETFs anytime recently, but if anyone has knowledge of any worth examining, bring it on.
>>>>>
Not unlike mutual funds and your allocation mix, you may build your own mix with etf's, too.
*** stockcharts data is total return for a period, which includes any distributions.
*** two examples in charts.
PRWCX, 10 year total return
QQQ and AGG,10 year total return
The above PRWCX 10 year return = 231%
The above, QQQ and AGG, with a mix of 50/50 and using a simple average between the two etf's for total return = a combined 10 year return of 302%.
Mental benchmarks that I use for what I consider two high class allocation mutual funds are VWINX and FBALX. VWINX has a nominal mix of 30/70, equity/bond and FBALX has a nominal mix of 70/30 equity/bond.
One could mix QQQ and AGG for any combination of equity/bond percentages.
Broad bond etf list
Broad growth etf list
Perhaps the most substantial question now is, what performance paths do the various bond types travel into the future; with many types having had a most decent 40 year run.
My 2 cents worth about this topic.
Regards,
Catch

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/06/04/business/inflation-stock-market-bonds.html
Inflation Is Real Enough to Take Seriously
While economists debate whether the current spike is “transitory” or longer lasting, investors may want to review their inflation playbook, just in case.....
https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/081315/9-top-assets-protection-against-inflation.asp
Assets for Protection Against Inflation
By KATELYN PETERS Reviewed by CHIP STAPLETON Updated May 26, 2021
1. Gold
2. Commodities
3. 60/40 Stock/Bond Portfolio
4. REITs
5. S&P 500
6. Real Estate Income
7. Aggregate Bond Index
8. Leveraged Loans
9. TIPS

M* recently reclassified VPMCX as large cap blend. It had been classified large cap growth even though its portfolio had been in the blend column since 2018.
Its performance looked very poor compared with its "peers": 50th percentile (2018), 84th percentile (2019), 94th percentile (2020). (Though in 2021, with value ascending, it looked great - somewhere in the top 5%).
As a result of its long term "poor" performance, it had been rated 2 or 3 stars earlier this year. But with the reclassification, it's suddenly a five star fund. Nothing has changed. Its half brother POGRX is a bit more growthy, so M* has left it in the LCG category. As a result, that fund sports a 2 star rating.
An example how even unintentional drift affects star ratings is FSMAX. It tracks the S&P 500 completion index. M* writes: "This has been one of the strongest performers in the mid-cap blend category over the trailing 10 years through July 2020." But it has been on the blend/growth boundary since at least 2017, and M* recently reclassified it as growth. So this perennially strong performer is now rated 2 stars.
I'm not faulting M* here. Funds that do not sit near the center of a style "box" have a good chance of being over- or under-rated. This will happen regardless of what box they're dropped into.

”The longest collapse in history was 1929 and lasted 2.8 years. The 2007 recession lasted 1.3 years.”

Dow Jones Average 1925-1955

2006-2012 S&P
Trying hard not to interpret these charts. Others may draw their own conclusions. But (since this is a bond related thread) I did check the yield of the 10-year Treasury near the beginning of the ‘07-‘09 crash. On January 1, 2008, the 10-year Treasury yielded 3.74% (more than double today’s rate).

Ben Carlson discusses historical real returns for commodities, stocks, bonds, and cash.
"Many investors want to be invested in commodities today because of worries about inflation. And commodities can have high returns under inflationary environments. But stocks have a much better track record over the rate of inflation in the long run."
"The performance of commodities may also be surprising to some investors. Commodities have negative real returns over the past 100 years! Now there could be some selection bias here. You can see from Reid’s numbers that gold has a much better track record."
"A decade feels like a long time but might not be worthy of consideration when it comes to 'long-term' for the stock market. In 3 out of the last 11 decades, the stock market has experienced negative real returns."
"There can be negative real returns on bonds for an extended period of time. The four-decade stretch from the 1940s through the 1970s saw negative real returns for bonds."
"Cash has had negative real returns in 5 out of the past 11 decades. You can probably expect that to continue from such low rates at the moment."
Link

Gather around, everyone, for the story of the $2 trillion Not-So-Secret Garden:
Long ago, a gardener planted an iPhone.
“It’s not good for a gadget to be alone,” he said.
So he grew crops of iPads, Apple Watches and AirPods, and summoned an iCloud in the sky to connect and replenish them.
Many people came to the garden to enjoy its delights.
The gardener was happy, until he saw some people wandering out.
So he stacked bricks, one atop another, with names like iMessage, Apple Photos, AirDrop, Apple Fitness+ and so on, until they formed a high perimeter.
Then the people never left.
Excerpted from: WSJ June 4, 2021 (author Joanna Stern)
Just bought an Air-Tag after a frustrating experience misplacing my keys earlier in the week. The new $35 gadget seems to work. I considered buying another to hang from a shopping cart - which I habitually loose track of in large stores. However, I doubt the thing is loud enough to be heard over the noise.

This added efficiency should be true for most ETFs, except for Vanguard's, which for complicated reasons I'm too tired to explain aren't more efficient than Vanguard's index mutual funds as they are actually another share class of those funds.
IMHO this perspective is backward. This added efficiency is true for Vanguard ETFs as well - so far they have been able to dump all gains onto APs. As a result, it is not that Vanguard's ETFs are less efficient than those of other families, but that Vanguard's OEF share classes are more efficient than mutual funds of other families.

Most of Vanguard's ETFs were created as a new share class of an existing mutual fund.
Former Vanguard CIO Gus Sauter even patented (expires 2023) this innovative solution.
This solution increases the tax efficiency for associated mutual funds.
Dan Wiener from "The Independent Advisor for Vanguard Investors" compared the after-tax returns of Vanguard ETFs with their corresponding mutual funds.
Some ETFs had a small advantage of several bps but the same was true for some mutual funds.
There also were ETFs and mutual funds which generated identical after-tax returns.
The following Bloomberg article from 2019 discusses Vanguard's mutual fund taxation in more detail.
Link
Here's Barry Ritholtz's take.
Link

In my humble opinion, (using @msf numbers) - 3,582 mutual funds vs. 85 ETF's
What I quoted was a 2017 piece that gave the number of NTF OEFs and ETFs then available through Fidelity. (Now all ETFs are traded w/o commission.)
Fidelity's screen shows 2426 ETFs and 80 ETNs available.
https://research2.fidelity.com/pi/etf-screener
(FWIW, Schwab's shows 2195 ETFs
https://client.schwab.com/secure/cc/research/etfs/etfs.html?path=/research/Client/ETFs/Screener/FundFinder )
Fidelity's fund screener shows 10624 "funds" (share classes), including leveraged, inverse, and closed funds.

Been trading ~ 2% portfolio in aggressive stocks like Arkk sens anvs past few wks
Rest in long term vehicles -indexes qqq sp500 dji vti brk.b bac...

https://www.google.com/amp/s/seekingalpha.com/amp/article/4432955-qyld-covered-call-etf-11-9-percent-yield
QYLD: Covered Call ETF - 11.9% Yield
Jun. 3, 2021 4:36 PMGlobal X Funds - Global X NASDAQ 100 Covered Call ETF (QYLD)QQQ, SPY
Summary
Covered call funds provide investors with strong yields and outperformance during flat markets, at the expense of lower capital gains and long-term returns.
QYLD is a covered call ETF tracking the Nasdaq 100 index.
11.9% yield, what can go wrong?

@davidrmoran Don't assume I didn't check. In my humble opinion, (using @msf numbers) - 3,582 mutual funds vs. 85 ETF's "seems to be a limited number to me" in comparison. I've offered that I don't own ETF's and am interested in learning more about what I'm missing. <--That's an open admission that I don't know what I don't know.
You seem to keep having a problem with my posts. May I suggest you just ignore them or me? I will gladly do the same for you.

VALUE vs. GROWTH: Circling back to this and @stillers mention of PARWX ... My MSEGX (LCG) is down 1.30% YTD and PARWX (LCV) is up 24.65% - YIKES! A quick comparison scan of Fidelity Growth vs. Value Index funds shows the same . . . a massive move from growth to value this year. The shift to value has been mentioned a bunch but when it's staring you in the face... it becomes even more real. On the bright side FMSDX has been a nice addition.

Good question. I’m not seeing anything near term. I prefer to call those “spec plays” anyway. As to “tactical” plays, I scale in or out slowly over months or years. So it’s a matter of portfolio weight or emphasis. I’ve lightened up a bit on the commodities / NR area just because it’s done so well. I’ll continue to lighten up there in “smigits”, but like the area too well to abandon it. BTW, I’ve plugged in PRELX as an (unlikely) substitute inside my real assets sleeve. And it’s beginning to move. A less dicey play on inflation than pure commodities.
I’m looking at what to add at Fido when I have some money there. Kinda like their utilities fund, FSUTX, which would replace some of my commodities exposure. Last evening I went back and re-read David Geroux’s December 2020 Fund Report for PRWCX. In it he makes a compelling case for utilities (which constituted 10% of his holdings at the time). I’m more convinced after reading that than ever. A real long-shot is Fido’s less than 2 year old Infrastructure fund FNSTX. At only 50 mil AUM, should it pop - you’d make out like a bandit. It’s mostly outside the U.S. Heavily in Italy and Spain for reasons unclear. (Maybe they like olives & wine?) However, that’s a pretty far-fetched gamble. It could just as easily go the other way.

He may be looking at an old commission schedule. Before Fidelity (and nearly everybody else) went commission-free on stocks and ETFs, Fidelity offered mainly iShares and OneQ (the only ETF Fidelity had at the time) with no transaction fee:

Fidelity ranks competitively, too, with 3,532 NTF mutual funds and 85 commission-free ETFs, including dozens of iShares ETFs

Kiplinger, Aug 2017
https://www.kiplinger.com/article/investing/t023-c000-s002-we-pick-the-best-online-brokers.html

OK, I’ll give an example of why I chose a mutual fund over a comparable ETF. For small cap exposure in my IRA, I had used a small cap index fund, DISSX, with an expense ratio of 0.50% for many years. Realizing that I could get slightly better returns from IJR, which follows the same index with an ER of 0.06%, I looked into switching. However, I then discovered that Fidelity has a small cap index fund (FSSNX) with an ER of 0.025% and even better returns, so I switched to it. So, in this case, the Fidelity index mutual fund had lower expenses than a comparable ETF. If your a stickler, iShares has an ETF that follows the Russell 2000, the same as FSSNX, also with a higher ER.
Other than the lower ER, I can do same-day transfers of money between FSSNX and other Fidelity funds, which is a big advantage to me, since many of the other funds in my IRA are with Fidelity.

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1795351/000174177321001758/c485apos.htm
T. Rowe Price QM U.S. Bond ETF
T. Rowe Price Total Return ETF
T. Rowe Price Ultra Short-Term Bond ETF

I've held FCNTX since 1986. In July, 2019 I made my first sale to open a position in BIAWX for both curiosity and speculation that Danoff may float the idea of retiring. Since then FCNTX has increased in value 32.8% while BIAWX has gone up by 52.6%. My curiosity has been satisfied but Danoff is still a rockstar.

Putting my home of 26 years in the burbs of CHI on the market next week...spent the past several weeks, cleaning, fixing, prepping...every few weeks I wait the prices in the neighborhood go up by $10k....we'll see what happens. Going with fixed fee listing, not gonna pay a realtor high 4, low 5 digits to do a few days work as the homes sell so fast. No inventory is right unless you want to buy a home for $1.5MM+, then plenty to choose from as many north shore burbs types flee the tax man of Illinois and no reason to go into downtown CHI town, crime out of control, way out of control, no thank you to the cook county state's attorney who does not do her job...you could spin whatever narrative you want, just go into the city and drive around. Drug abuse rampant. Criminal justice reform legitamcy has a point but after that point the narrative is one thing, reality is another.
Never beeen to Traverse City, been to Pentwater, South Haven...all real nice places, nice folks, looking forward to getting up to TC later this year!
Seems you get that...meaning the exporting of inflation...wealthy new yorkers sell their condo, buy somewhere else with half the money and have the other half to spend, invest etc. Meanwhile locals like the home appreciation but then can't afford the increase in tax assessments. Lot of trouble with affordable housing all across this country. Thank you to the Fed and CB...keeping interest rates too low, debasing our currency...increasing inequality across the board...
Good Luck to All,
Baseball Fan