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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • QQQ for young-ish adult first timer....seems to be a decent starting place.
    The input thus far is very much appreciated. Additional thoughts are welcomed. FTEC is an excellent choice, too; as we also invest in this etf. @Old_Joe , yes; Ted would state that QQQ is the one. @davidrmoran , yes, perhaps Ted would also suggest these. If there were a larger dollar amount available, I would also be tempted to suggest some of the money be split into FSMEX or IHI (an eft twin) for direct exposure to medical tech.
    SPY and most related indexes that track the SP-500 are a blended U.S. equity position. I do not consider this a poor choice for many portfolios; but consider an investment in QQQ or similar to be a better fit for a young investor. SPY type funds do represent a much larger sample of U.S. equity; but one also finds sectors of this area that can be a drag on performance, too. Over the past several years, financials and energy have been brakes on performance. But, the recent inclusion of TESLA and other ongoing changes will continue to affect this mix.
    SPY
    Sectors	Fund %	Cat %
    Basic Materials 2.42 2.61
    Consumer Cyclical 12.66 11.17
    Financial Services 13.90 13.42
    Real Estate 2.29 2.47
    Communication Services 10.26 10.21
    Energy 2.60 1.90
    Industrials 8.83 10.11
    Technology 23.82 22.81
    Consumer Defensive 6.78 7.99
    Healthcare 13.77 14.76
    Utilities 2.67 2.54
    QQQ
    With this is a much smaller sampling of U.S. equity (100 companies), but oriented to growth; but using market capitalization size to establish the holdings and percent. The prospectus indicates that the holdings percentage may be and are adjusted throughout any given time period.
    Information Technology	47.90%
    Consumer Discretionary 19.29%
    Communication Services 18.22%
    Health Care 6.39%
    Consumer Staples 5.15%
    Industrials 1.88%
    Utilities 0.96%
    Industry exposure:
    Software	15.27%
    Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment 13.96%
    Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals 12.37%
    Internet & Direct Marketing Retail 11.95%
    Interactive Media & Services 10.35%
    IT Services 4.59%
    Automobiles 4.43%
    Biotechnology 3.98%
    Media 3.39%
    Entertainment 3.11%
  • Financial Decisions
    Thank you @Observant1 Every little bit of knowledge helps someone.
    This connects to my QQQ post about the continuous attempts to awaken brains about investing, both young and old. I established and encouraged investment learning in 1985 when an investment club was put in place among 14 co-workers. After 5 years and too little interest or participation, the club was dissolved. But, years later I still had comments related to could've, would've and should've given more attention. Even with the brief market melt in 1987, the club had a very nice profit period. Some did benefit a bit when a 401k was introduced within the company. A few small victories here and there.
    I'll add again, that we've presented the following book as an additional wedding or birthday gift.
    The Millionaire Next Door, written in 1996. The math values provided in the book are from this time frame, but the "heart" of the book is about one's treatment of hard earned money.....how not to piss it away. Which leaves money for investing. A personal finance book in the best form, that also applies to current investors.
  • Mutual fund SVARX
    Don’t forget the most important part of the fund.
    The 49% leverage and the huge position in swaps.
    With the recent spike in the 10 year and if the rise in interest rates continues, the higher borrowing costs will be detrimental to this funds huge position in leverage.
    Do your own due diligence on this fund.
    Absolutely do your own diligence. First, we don't know how long or how high the leverage has been. Second, the 10 year was much higher years ago and the fund did OK too. Third, the manager has been using short positions too. Per M* fund holdings I can see 2 positions at -10.03% and -9.89
    I found the semi-annual report from 3/31/2020 (link)and more than 50% is in treasury bills, mutual funds about 30%, MM at 13.8%(maybe used for leverage).
    ===============
    JD_co: that's correct, Ralph Doudera, also runs HFSAX/SFHYX which also has a good risk/reward, but the min is 1 million for HFSAX at Schwab and the other is only for institutional customers. I can still buy SVARX at $5000 min + $49.95 fee, but I can't buy the Ins SVASX, Schwab doesn't recognize it.
    3 years performance/SD...HFSAX 14.5/7.6...SPY 14.1/18.7
  • Mutual fund SVARX
    This might be considered cherry-picking of data, but if you remove a really great 2020 (+24.1%), then SVARX returns are less impressive - though still not too shabby:
    2019 ..... 9.42%
    2018 .... -0.99%
    2017 .... 8.26%
    2016 ... 16.45%
    2015 .... 1.08%
    2014 .... 2.41%
    Whatever instruments SVARX uses behind the scenes have certainly helped it maintain a very low down-market capture rate. Wish there was more color on that.
  • Mutual fund SVARX
    SVARX does a lot of trading of funds. Per their 11/30/20 Monthly Strategy Focus update the portfolio allocation was 86.45% on 10/31 and 178.08% as of 11/30 with the note "Can contain derivatives and/or short position". Per the Fact Sheet you linked, the allocation was 148.89% on 12/31.
    I initiated an investment on 11/30. It's performance has closely tracked with IOFIX (another investment) since then ( chart ). I suspect SVARX still owns some IOFIX.
  • Mutual fund SVARX
    My PRWCX owns bonds. So does BRUFX. Disregarding those two, you prompted me to check my own performance re: my bond funds. PTIAX grew by $1,200 on account of automatic monthly deposits through the year. But the performance numbers we all use do not take that sort of thing into account. Those statistics are measuring a "static" amount of shares held through the year.
    Anyway: PTIAX is 7.63% of my portf. (2020 perf. +5.73%)
    PRSNX 22.63% of portf. (2020 +8.14%)
    RPSIX 22.88% of portf. (2020 perf. +6.06%)
    I worked out a weighted average and it comes to +6.9% for 2020, which seems just a bit high, but I did use a specific online tool which gives weighted averages. You just have to be accurate with the numbers you're entering. I sat on these three funds through the year, and did nothing. Zilch. I'm pretty happy.
  • Mutual fund SVARX
    The portfolio manager for SVARX, Ralph Doudera, also handles HFSAX. Mr. Doudera has a Masters degree in Biblical studies and also a Masters in Mgmt/Finance.
    His funds have performed extremely well with limited volatility. SVARX has 3 and 5 year returns just over 10%, and its worst ever Quarter in 7 years was a -2.06% loss. Nice track record.
  • Mutual fund SVARX
    I only started following this fund in the last several months.
    SVARX is a fund of other fixed income funds. The ER=2.95 is very high, but the results are very good. Several of these funds have ER of 1.5% already. BTW, in 03/2020 the fund lost less than 2% peak to trough. The risk-adjusted performance easily beat VBINX+VWIAX
    As of 1/15/2020: (One year SD is from PortVis)
    SVARX performance/SD...............1 year=23.4%/6.4.......3 year=10.4% annually/5.4.....5 year=11.4% annually/4.9.
    VBINX (60/40) performance/SD.....1 year=23.4%/16.8.....3 year=11.2% annually/11.9...5 year=11.15 annually/9.7.
    VWIAX (40/60) performance/SD.....1 year=23.4%/11.55...3 year=7.2% annually/7.7......5 year=8.0% annually/6.3.
    When you look at their (site) they do a good job not to mention the fact they invest in other fixed income funds.
    Their top funds from M* as of 9/30/2020 are and by now it's probably different :)
    IOFIX=special securitized
    NHYIX=HY
    Recv Nuveen Prf Secs Inc
    Pimco Govt Mm Instl
    BDKNX=special securitized
    Eaton Vance Floating=bank loans
    Ishares Tr Pfd Inc S (-10%)
    CMOYX=CLMAX=special securitized
    The yield is low under 1% for 2020 and about 3-3.5% for 2019 and about 2.5% in 2018.
    So, if you are looking for a good risk/reward fund, maybe that's the one. See one year (chart) and change to 3-5.
    ===================
    I'm not sure what the managers of SVARX are doing, but I managed my own portfolio with the following goals: making more than 6% annually, never losing more than 3% from any last top, SD under 3. In the last 3 years, since retirement in 2018, I have used mainly bond funds with several very short term (hours-days) of stocks/ETF/CEFs, usually very concentrated in 2-3 bond OEFs, using momentum and switching between best performing funds but also selling to cash when risk is very high as I did in Q4/2018 and Q1/2020. My portfolio risk-adjusted performance below as of 12/31/2020 are actually even better. Directly from Schwab, you can see below that SD=2.3 for both one and three years. The portfolio never lost more than 1% from any last top during 2018-2020.
    image imageimage
  • World Stock Funds-Are they a viable alternative?
    somewhat OT, and you have get past the wack lede, but an interesting thing to know maybe for investing outside the US
    https://humbledollar.com/2021/01/lost-abroad/
    Methinks he doth protest too much. Foreign tax credits can be carried back one year and forward ten years, so he may not have lost his tax credit as much as he would like you to believe he did. I've carried forward and later used foreign tax credits.
    Basically, you can't take a credit now for foreign taxes paid at a higher rate than your current overall (not marginal) US rate. For example, suppose you owe $10K in taxes on $100K of taxable income (10%). If $20K of that income was foreign, and you paid $3000 in foreign taxes (15%), you could take a credit now for $2000 (10%) and carry over the remaining $1000 to use in future years.
    The way the IRS describes it is different but amounts to the same thing:
    Your foreign tax credit cannot be more than your total U.S. tax liability ... multiplied by a fraction. The numerator of the fraction is your taxable income from sources outside the United States. The denominator is your total taxable income from U.S. and foreign sources.
    More important than his self pity ("It all seemed very personal") is whether your mutual fund passes through foreign taxes to you. The way funds generally work is that they pay for expenses (management fees and yes, taxes) out of earnings and pay you the net earnings as divs. The income you see on your 1040 is the usually the net income.
    But sometimes, even though you're only getting net divs, the funds pretend that you got extra income and it was you, not the fund, that paid those foreign taxes with that extra income. So you might have $500 in "real" dividends, but on your 1099 you see $550 in divs and $50 in foreign taxes paid.
    The question is: which funds pass through foreign taxes to you? A fund must make an election to pass through the taxes. They can't do so unless "more than 50 percent of the value ... of [the fund's] assets at the close of the taxable year consists of stock or securities in foreign corporations." 26 U.S. Code § 853(a)(1)
    Generally, global funds don't make this election because they either typically have less than 50% invested abroad or because their portfolio could be near 50% and they want to be clear to investors. (Currently, M* shows 46/246 large cap world stock funds with over 50% non-US stocks.)
    Somewhat surprisingly (to me) a number of international funds also decide not to pass through foreign taxes.
  • World Stock Funds-Are they a viable alternative?
    Global stock funds can be a viable alternative to a combination of discrete domestic and foreign stock funds.
    An investor will need to determine if the foreign asset allocation (often approx. 50%) is appropriate for their particular situation.
    I recently considered investing in a global equity fund (looked at ARTRX, RPGEX, others) to reduce the number of funds in my portfolio. I decided to retain discrete domestic and foreign equity funds since this will allow greater control of the asset allocation. Also, periodic rebalancing between domestic and foreign equity funds may provide additional returns.
  • The Story Behind the Market's Hottest Funds
    Zweig cautions that these funds are as risky as story stocks and cites research that showed that thematic funds underperformed conventional funds over time by about 0.5% per month.
    As may be, but you have to admit that it'll take a good long time for the ARK funds to devolve to meet that 'standard'; unless there is a HUGE swoon for pretty much everything over a couple of years. Not discounting what you're saying, but they DO have a substantial lead at this point...
  • Port Viz
    Well shoot, the attempted link does not show the input values. Try this after you open the link.
    1. Walk through the first 10 lines making your choices.
    2. In the Portfolio Assets section enter PRWCX as your first ticker. Tab over and enter 100 in the first Portfolio column.
    3. Enter VFINX as your second ticker. Tab over to the second Portfolio column and enter 100.
    4. Finally enter PRBLX as your third ticker. Tab over to the third Portfolio column and enter 100.
    5. Select Analyze Portfolios.
  • Port Viz
    I assume that you are talking about this page: Backtest Portfolio Asset Allocation It's a way to back test the performance results of a real or hypothetical portfolio. At it's simplist it works as follows.
    1) The first 10 lines are hopefully self-explanatory. Just make your selections. As noted above, if you choose to display income it will insert a new line for you to select whether you wish the dividends reinvested or not.
    2. Portfolio Assets
    A. Enter the ticker symbols of ETF's or Mutual funds of interest. For example you could compare a 10-year investment in PRWCX vs. VFINX vs. any other large cap blend fund ( I chose PRBLX).
    B. I chose 3 separate portfolios each containing only a single fund (i.e. 100% of the assets). However you could put one-third in each or have a portfolio with a 50-50 split, however you want to split it up. The Portfolio value total must add up to 100%
    3. Select Analyze Portfolios.
    4. Here is a link to this example. If it works you can scroll around to see where the entry's were made and even substitute the funds and percentages. Give it a go.
  • The Story Behind the Market's Hottest Funds
    The article highlights the thematic ETFs that ran the table last year, including those from the Ark shop. Zweig cautions that these funds are as risky as story stocks and cites research that showed that thematic funds underperformed conventional funds over time by about 0.5% per month.
  • World Stock Funds-Are they a viable alternative?
    HGGIX. Looking again, I see that it is very concentrated, with just 37 stock holdings. It is global, not foreign-only. But it is Large Growth. 36% is in the top 10 holdings. It's 54/44 in US/foreign. I'm putting money into it soon. One reason I like it is because the usual Amazon and Facebook and Apple do not prominently appear.
  • The Story Behind the Market's Hottest Funds
    "The Story Behind the Market’s Hottest Funds"
    By Jason Zweig
    Jan. 15, 2021 10:00 am ET
  • Large Cap/All Cap dividend investing, need input
    This is a 5 year old thread, but still a timely topic. I'm in PRBLX (now PRILX) and have been very happy w/its stability, performance, and composition. They were one of the few funds to come out rather well during '08, all things considered.