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Inflation Is Real Enough to Take Seriously

edited June 5 in Other Investing
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/06/04/business/inflation-stock-market-bonds.html

Inflation Is Real Enough to Take Seriously

While economists debate whether the current spike is “transitory” or longer lasting, investors may want to review their inflation playbook, just in case.....


https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/081315/9-top-assets-protection-against-inflation.asp

Assets for Protection Against Inflation

By KATELYN PETERS Reviewed by CHIP STAPLETON Updated May 26, 2021


1. Gold
2. Commodities
3. 60/40 Stock/Bond Portfolio
4. REITs
5. S&P 500
6. Real Estate Income
7. Aggregate Bond Index
8. Leveraged Loans
9. TIPS



Comments

  • Another Article:
    Roger Bootle: “It is the start of a sea change, I have to say. That’s not to say that we’re going to go back to the strong inflationary conditions of the 70s and early 80s. But at the very least, I think we are at the end of the crypto-deflationary period that we’ve been in for the last few years.

    “The danger of deflation has passed, and the risks have definitely tilted in the other direction. How high inflation will go, and for how long, that’s debatable. But I’m not in much doubt myself that there’s been a sea change.”

    inflation-outlook-economist-roger-bootle-sees-consumer-prices-surge-after-covid?
  • edited June 9
    China seems to think so.

    As far as the list of “Assets for Protection Against Inflation”, proceed at your own risk. One might consider that there are shaper minds in the world than Ms, Peters who have already identified the potential and bid these assets up. Wish investing were as simple as opening a book and looking up “What to Buy” for any occasion that might present itself. Not to say these ideas won’t work - just that the game’s not as easy as it sounds nor the playing field as level as one might assume.

    How about Katelyn Peters? Is she under any obligation not to invest in these areas first? Is she forbidden from sharing her list with her closest friends or family members before releasing it to the public?

    #5 - S&P 500? Really? What a unique idea!

    #10 - TIPS? In theory only. There’s been numerous articles in recent months attesting to their being wildly overbought. Some discussion here as well.

  • edited June 10
    Best to keep in mind how today's inflation number is calculated - year over year - and what was happening a year ago.

    Hank's right about the usual inflation-related investments having already been bid up, starting months ago. In the case of the analyst group I follow the closest, it was about nine months ago they recommended getting into inflation assets -- specifically with the jump in the official numbers in mind, the numbers that would be coming in the quarters ahead, set up by the lowflation/deflation of late Q1/Q2 of 2020.

    I could be a little wealthier now if I'd gone into that trade more heavily back then, instead of cautiously.
  • beebee
    edited June 10
    @AndyJ
    I could be a little wealthier now if I'd gone into that trade more heavily back then, instead of cautiously.
    This "trend" may persist. Good for you for paying attention and for acting on it. Some trends are short lived...some longer in duration. To me, this is where 3 month charts are helpful. Trends tend to persist. When they break down...they tend make "lower-lows" over a 1-3-6 month time frame. Go luck with your investments.

    Here's an example using VIS over the last year...short lower-lows, but the trend shows longer "higher-lows". I try to look at trends this way. The red arrows are "lower Lows' and the green arrows are "higher-lows".

    45 % higher-lows over the last year.

    image
  • Thank you @bee for your time and effort.
  • edited June 11
    bee said:


    This "trend" may persist. />

    Yes, it sure may. My choice now, though, is not to put new money in. The big traders have already made a ton on that trade, and as far as it's run, the upside from here may be limited. Some of the commodities I watch (and own, in the case of one) either haven't recovered their previous highs or are just muddling along after losing mojo in May, so I'll be watching for what happens there.
  • edited June 11
    Delete.

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