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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • TSHIX
    @msf,
    "[Y]ou can use the same automatic investment mechanism that people use to buy TF funds for a $5 fee. If you use this to buy a Fidelity fund, then regardless of the amount, the transaction doesn't count as part of a round trip."
    Since Fidelity funds are NTF, does Fidelity charge the $5 fees to buy using the auto invest feature? I am assuming NO, but thought I should ask.
    "Orders placed via Fidelity Automatic Investments or Automatic Withdrawals features are exempt from roundtrip violations." - from Fidelity website.
    Does the following sell order result in a roundtrip violation?
    I buy $1,000 of FXAIX on Feb 1. On Feb 2, I place an auto invest request to buy on Feb 4 of $100K of FXAIX (assume quarterly auto invest). On Feb 15, I learn that a pandemic is imminent and I want to reduce my equity exposure and sell all the FXAIX shares bought on Feb 4.
    Thanks.
  • Anyone adding Chinese stocks /mutual funds etf?
    The following excerpts are from a current column by Paul Krugman, in The New York Times: "Is China in Big Trouble?"
    (That link will only work for NYT subscribers.)
    China’s economic growth has been gradually slowing. Here’s a five-year moving average of the country’s growth rate:
    image
    Basically, China has masked underlying imbalances by creating an immense housing bubble. And it’s hard to see how this ends well.
    image
    Now that’s a housing bubble. Kenneth Rogoff and Yuanchen Yang
    Rogoff and Yang also show both that housing prices in China are extremely high relative to incomes and that the real estate sector has become an incredibly large share of China’s economy.
    None of this looks sustainable, which is why many observers worry that the debt problems of the giant property developer Evergrande are just the leading edge of a broader economic crisis.
    China, which maintains controls on the flow of capital into and out of the country, isn’t deeply integrated with world financial markets. So the fall of Evergrande isn’t likely to provoke a global financial crisis in the same way that the fall of Lehman Brothers did in 2008. A Chinese slowdown would have some economic spillover via reduced Chinese demand, especially for raw materials. But in purely economic terms, the global economic risks from China’s problems don’t look all that large.
  • Green investments
    With respect to the general "Green" topic, I've just posted an interesting WSJ article on climate warming in the "Off Topic" section:
    Link: An Unusually Honest Evaluation of Climate Change
    For non-subscribers, it's a free read.
  • Anyone adding Chinese stocks /mutual funds etf?
    Howdy folks,
    @Observant1 Not really. I've been investing with Matthews for almost 25 years. Managers come and go. feh.
    good luck,
    rono
  • The General Employment Strike of 2020-2022
    Howdy folks,
    Responded earlier on my phone but the throttle monsters ate my postie.
    Sorry about the typo. Indeed, my point is that Defined Contribution pensions can get pretty close to Defined Benefit pensions, IFF, there is a company match, there are investment choices, folks are educated on investing and they have sufficient time to accrue. Even when you're converting the old DB to a new DC pension, you can do it humanely and don't have to be assholes. When Michigan converted their state employees some 20-25 years ago, they forced everyone under 5 years. Above that you had a choice. They had a sliding scale but it was biased towards the retirement ages (i.e. 50, 55, 60, etc.). That said, the DC replacement started with 4% from the state and they will match your 3% up to 10% total. The best option I've seen for health insurance coverage is full for active duty employees and an medical savings account for retirement (with a match and investment choices). Damnit, it can work.
    As for protocols to @Ben and @BenWP, sorry. This old geezer is trying but these newfangled computers . . . '-)
    and so it goes,
    peace and wear the damn mask,
    rono
  • The General Employment Strike of 2020-2022
    I am so glad this is happening. The bosses and human resources people has thrown out so much BS in 10-50 yrs that left many lives and families destroyed. Firing employees with 10+ yrs experience favoring the younger who they can get cheaper. The reorganizations due to mismanagement and blaming the front line worker.Sadly to say I am very disappointed with the way the job scene went. I can go on and on but limited in time. I spent so much time pounding the pavement, interviewing, sending out resumes, talking with agencies only to get turned down. I think I had above average qualifications and was not asking a high salary. IMHO I would be an individual contractor and screw the Corporate world or move to a Country that treats employees more fairly
  • Is now a good time to buy Vanguards Tax Managed Balanced Fund?
    I have owned VTMFX for several years and am generally pleased as a core holding.
    It depends really on what you want to accomplish Growth? Income? and with what risk.
    Almost 10% is in FAANG ( Nvidia not Netflix) so it will take a big hit when that party is over. The Bond duration is 4.2 indicating that the bonds here will drop with a rise in interest rates.
    While VTMFX lost 20% during the Covid crash vs 30% SP500 in may get hit hard in a stagnation scenario, as the 10% FAANG will also be sensitive to rising rates.
    The yield is nothing to write home about if you are interested in income.
  • Long term owner of MWTRX

    M* does rate it as a "Low Risk"
    Not just low risk, but volatility so low that it has higher 3 and 5 year Sharpe and Sortino ratios than FFRHX, PRFRX, and SAMBX. For those who feel one can eat risk adjusted returns :-).
    Great post in total, but your last comment is Priceless.
    Some investor's (NOTE: NOT naming any names here and NOT referring to anyone in particular on this tread) near obsession with "risk adjusted returns" is mind-numbing to me at times.
    There's also that little (read, "significant") matter of "after-tax returns" (that is rarely discussed on forums) that also affects how much food is on the table (so to speak).
  • Long term owner of MWTRX
    M* does not seem to think as highly of this fund [MWFRX/MWFLX], based on its fund analysis commentary.
    That would be M*'s artificial "intelligence" program. The one that doesn't like MWFLX because while its "view" of the fund's process is above average, and its "view" of the fund's management (people) is above average, it "regards" the fund family (MetWest/TCW as just average). Who here would look less favorably on a bond fund because it's part of the MetWest family?
    We can go into a bit more depth on the process "analysis". The computer "opines" that the fund is overweight in corporate bonds. That's true. Bank loan funds are typically comprised entirely of corporates and cash. This fund happens to be more fully invested (less cash) than the typical bank loan fund. Nothing more significant than that.
    It "observes" that the fund overweights BBB rated bonds relative to peers. A more complete observation would have been that it has 10% fewer B bonds, 3% more BBs, 6% more BBBs (so it has upgraded B bonds primarily to BBBs), and 6% more AAA(!) bonds in lieu of below B and unrated bonds. Curious how it missed the 6% overweight (relative) in AAAs.
    It then claims that this upward shift in credit quality is not rewarded, because the portfolio is still scored B by M*. The M* computer has easy access to the actual numeric credit score that M* calculated. For all we know, the fund scored at the very top of M*'s B band and the typical bank loan fund scored near the bottom of the B band.
    This part of the analysis is unstable because it uses broad credit quality bands rather than numeric scores. A small shift in portfolio could change a fund's average rating, and thus the computer's "view" from "not rewarded" to "richly rewarded".
    M* does rate it as a "Low Risk"
    Not just low risk, but volatility so low that it has higher 3 and 5 year Sharpe and Sortino ratios than FFRHX, PRFRX, and SAMBX. For those who feel one can eat risk adjusted returns :-).
    http://performance.morningstar.com/fund/ratings-risk.action?t=MWFRX
    (add the funds you want to compare to see them all side by side on a single page)
  • Anyone adding Chinese stocks /mutual funds etf?
    Yes I think it it is a good time to invest in China funds - TCELX is a newer fund but a good option. The fund mainly invests in companies in the bottom 50% of China's combined market cap (of which 98%+ are listed companies), rather than in the top 50 index heavyweights. YTD it is still up 7.64%. Mathews funds - China, China Dividend, and China Small Cap are also all good options.
  • Selling or buying the dip ?!
    hank Fidelity allows fractional purchases of stock-I am the proud owner of 1.275 shares of ASML in my Fido IRA !
  • The General Employment Strike of 2020-2022
    Obviously a typo.
    If this board were typical of the broader population, a defined contribution pension would be adequate. Lots of well informed and smart cookies here. However, John Q. Public, on a wider scale, is quite lax at planning. Most can’t plan 6-months ahead - let alone 30-50 years out. So they are left struggling in their senior years on SS and maybe a part time job.
    One feature of well run and well funded DB pensions is the almost unlimited time horizon they have to invest over. Allows for greater risk/reward over time. Individuals can’t hope to match that. Our lifetimes are too short.
  • The General Employment Strike of 2020-2022
    Howdy folks,
    Great discussion. Start with @msf and Ford raising his workers wages so they could afford to buy a Ford. Another classic was the GI Bill after WW2. It was simply a labor control device to slow the reentry of the GI's into the work force. After WW1, the GI's marched on WashDC for jobs and Uncle to call out active duty soldiers to quell the uprising. That said, what the GI Bill resulted in was an incredible investment in human capital which led the the posterity of the 50's and 60's. Both are example of Demand Side economics . . . which we need more of. Not because we're bleeding heart liberals or socialists or even nice guys. IT'S TO STIMULATE AGGREGATE DEMAND. Duh. That's what this Employment strike will result in. That's why the states that maintained the excess unemployment benefits had better economies than those that didn't. The extra bennies went to AGG Demand. And what is so brain dead, is that the republicans are so damn mean, they continually choose the wrong actions and shoot themselves in the foot.
    @Ben and @oldJoe, Unions were and are a necessary evil. However, once they were founded, they became institutionalized and aren't much different today than management. Not unlike organized religion. Once established, they become more obsessed with preserving the institution than the membership.
    @hank, all true about the demise of organized labor, etc. That said, a DC pension can be a good substitute for a DC pension but it has to be done right and at the beginning of employment and most often they are not. You can have decent benefits for employees and not have enormous legacy costs. My township has great benefits and no legacy costs. 403(b) with match and investment guidance and flexibility. Health care while working and health savings for retirement. It can be done, but you first have to give a shit about your employees.
    We need more demand side economics. Raising the minimum wage would be perfect but it's going to have to be a grass roots movement (like a general strike) due to the inability of Washington to do anything right for the right reasons. Infrastructure? Huge. It's jobs. That's what people need and want. The reason why demand side econ is so superior to supply side is the Marginal Propensity to Consume. This is how a person saves or spends each additional dollar. Down around the bottom of the income ladder the MPC approaches 1.0. They are forced to spend (consume) every additional dollar. By consuming, they're buying stuff and then stuff has to be made. When the cost of capital is 0.0%, nothing will ever 'trickle down'.
    And for every business with a Help Wanted sign in their window. PAY YOUR WORKERS MORE AND YOU WON'T HAVE THIS PROBLEM.
    and so it goes,
    peace and wear the damn mask,
    rono
  • The 'story' of a small group of obscure traders who made $660 million on negative oil
    The 'story' from Bloomberg so far is really only a small window into how the traders, based in a remote suburb of London, took a huge risk to hit the jackpot in April 2020. Regulators are investigating whether they were brilliant or conspired to manipulate the market. Personally I hope they fairly outwitted Big Oil and the Street. But who knows? Apologies if this has been posted previously.
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2021-05-11/the-day-oil-went-negative-these-unlikely-traders-made-660-million-video
  • Selling or buying the dip ?!
    Sold a little on the pip today. Across the board. Hurts a bit to sell some favorites. Unlike many here, I maintain no separate cash reserve - although a very small amount resides within the invested total. So, couldn’t resist parking a bit for my 2022 distribution. I tend to pull from the traditional IRA for the year’s budgeted needs early in the year - more than the required amount. Prefer to pay taxes and let the Roth continue to grow in proportion - now over 75%. of portfolio. Not a market call. Just socking away some sun while the hay shines!
    Good retort @Old_Joe. Depends on type of advice. General financial principles and sound planning = appropriate advice. But buying, selling, allocating - Hell No
  • AAII
    I have been using AAII off and on for a number of years mostly because they bring a different perspective to stock and fund analysis as opposed to M* and a host of buy-side analysts. I do not use their 'Shadow Stock' portfolio because it consists of too many stocks I know very little about and don't have the time to dig in to even though they claim to have good success with it. They also feature a number of different stock screening methods following the likes of Buffett, Lynch, etc. which are fun to play around with. I'm not impressed enough to shell out $2500 however.
  • Anyone adding Chinese stocks /mutual funds etf?
    IF I was going to invest in China anytime in the near future I would be using EMQQ -Emerging Markets Internet & Ecommerce ETF. It consists mostly of emerging Asia small-caps but has a 50+% exposure to China. It's #2 holding is Tencent @8% and #3 is BABA at 7%. It might not be right for everyone.
  • Long term owner of MWTRX
    On BL OEFs, we've owned NFRAX and RSFLX in 2021. If we were to add another BL OEF, it would likely be either FRFAX or FFRHX. (To wit, considering opening a position in one of them right now). We do not share the same opinion of MWFLX and would have it 5th at best on our pecking order of NTF BL OEFs available via Fido.
    NOTES:
    BL is one of the 2021 outperforming bond categories referenced in my prior post on this thread.
    We do NOT own any IC or IC+ OEFs currently or plan to own any in the near future. To them, given the state of the bond market and interest rates, we ask "What's the point?" The 10-yr at 2%-2+% would be a point we would consider them.
  • AAII
    I wonder if anyone else has looked again at American Association of Individual Investor's offerings in light of the new push for fancier stock recommendations, portfolio management and now, an offer for lifetime access to all of their screens, data and advisory services for $2500.
    While the magazine has some fairly decent articles, I have never been overwhelmed by their mutual fund stuff and find their stock portfolios too quantitative and opaque. Of course I dropped my trial of VMQ stocks right before it took off!
    It is a curious organization. A non-profit organization that doesn't ask for donations but sells lots of stuff. Is there a board of directors? I assume like a lot of hospitals for example, that as long as they spend all but 5% of their income on "stuff" they can remain non-profit.