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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Well isn't this special........D.C.
    @Crash, #25 and #14 take time to exercise and there is less than 14 days left. If he has the decency, he should just leave NOW just like Richard Nixon. Nixon was told he has lost all support and was about to be impeached and remove from office. He resigned the next day according the Washington Post’s Bob Woodward and Carl Bernstein in their book “The Final Days.”

    Since the current president still has some support, I don't think it's possible to remove him by invoking the 14th or 25th amendements. Unfortunately, this man lacks a moral compass and will never resign for the good of the country.
  • Roundhill Pro Sports, Media & Apparel ETF in registration
    Good Morning @Derf,
    Ha! Like your commentary!
    FWIW,
    ECD Company plans to build an esports arena in Chicago’s Near South Side, according to The Esports Observer.
    Scott Greenberg, the president and CEO of ECD and SMASHotels, is focusing on turning the property at 2500 S. Wabash Ave. into a 106,000 square-foot venue that could hold 800 spectators. It would also be equipped with three kitchens to serve food and beverages.
    On another note....According to a recent report by Newzoo senior market analyst Tom Wijman, the global gaming market will generate $159.3 billion in revenue in 2020. That would be 9.3 percent year-over-year growth. What’s more, Newzoo projects the industry to surpass $200 billion in revenue in 2023
    For comparison sakes, US Movie and production revenue in 2019, ~ $35B
    Mucho Grande business, this Activision, Take Two Interactive, Electronic Arts, Nintendo, Microsoft...
    On another note, Fanatics, currently valued at ~$6.5B, likely going to IPO
    Best,
    Baseball_Fan
  • Well isn't this special........D.C.
    So are you saying that if they had been successful in taking the vice president and members of the house and senate as hostages that the market wouldn't have reacted? I'll take two of whatever it is you're having.
    Sound like the movie "White House Down" with James Wood and the Vice President try to overtake the government.
    @Crash, #25 and #14 take time to exercise and there is less than 14 days left. If he has the decency, he should just leave NOW just like Richard Nixon. Nixon was told he has lost all support and was about to be impeached and remove from office. He resigned the next day according the Washington Post’s Bob Woodward and Carl Bernstein in their book “The Final Days.”
  • Matthews Asia Total Return Bond (fka Matthews Asia Strategic Income)
    Thanks @David for sharing this. Ive enjoyed your writeups on this fund over the last 5 years. A nice steady eddy consistent fund which is what I look for.
  • But there's no inflation...
    Pretty good reminder of what we have forgotten:
    inflation-truthers

    That video is Exhibit A in what Consumerism is, and why it's a bad way to live. Completely uncritical and accepting of the status quo. Don't think about what you're buying. Just buy it. Don't ask whether this purchase is a good idea, just buy it--- because everyone else is. Hoover Institution: conservative. Thus, he found a way to show how the middle class and the poor HAVE gotten richer over the years... That's a crazy statement that does not compute. Of course, he sounds very matter of fact and reasonable in his presentation. I'm the radical Lefty, ya. So move on, and don't listen to a word I might have to say.
    Sorry, bee. I'm sure you offered us that video in a very different vein.
  • Well isn't this special........D.C.
    #25. #14. Censure. Impeach. All of the above. Some are "surprised" that this President could do such a thing? Shit, I saw all of what's been happening during the campaign in 2015. And any NYer who was paying attention, where he was constantly in the news, a celebrity, should have seen it, too. Just ask his SISTER and niece.
  • Stimulus checks
    Short answer: the credit is what it is; you get to keep it all.
    You don't have to pay back your stimulus check, because it's a refundable tax credit
    Your stimulus payment is technically a refundable tax credit, which reduces your 2020 tax bill on a dollar-for-dollar basis. It's like having store credit at your favorite clothing shop: When you apply it to your total bill, it reduces what you owe. In this case, even if you have no tax liability, the government is "refunding" your credit back to you as a cash payment.
    https://www.businessinsider.com/personal-finance/will-we-have-to-pay-back-stimulus-check-2020-4
    What Is a Tax Credit?
    Subtract tax credits from the amount of tax you owe. There are two types of tax credits:
    • A nonrefundable tax credit means you get a refund only up to the amount you owe.
    • A refundable tax credit means you get a refund, even if it's more than what you owe.
    https://www.irs.gov/credits-deductions-for-individuals
    If it's a gift, it's a per capita gift that nearly everyone (84%) gets. It's a gift like Medicare Part B, where most (92%) participants pay only 1/4 of the true cost and they are gifted the other 3/4 out of general tax revenue (see Medicare Financial Status: In Brief, p. 5, pdf p. 7).
  • Roundhill Pro Sports, Media & Apparel ETF in registration
    Ah, Prof Snowball.. nonsense it might be but I was telling folks 15 years ago that
    . We'd be letting criminals out of prison cause we can't afford to keep them there
    . We'd legalize the weed cause we need the tax monies
    . We'd be wearing six shooters on our hips cause of all the crime
    . We'd be seeing youngsters skip out on school loan debt..too excessive, expensive
    . We'd be seeing legalized sports gambling cause we need the tax monies
    Now me thinks we're going to see prostitution legalized within four years. And. We will see gaming be the next sports arena slash investing platform similar to horse racing etc
    Check it. I believe in chicago they are building a mini arena just to watch live gaming seating for a few thousand
    C'mon prof. You're around the young Turks and I believe you have a young son... different times for sure...
    Best regards to all
    Baseball Fan
  • Matthews Asia Total Return Bond (fka Matthews Asia Strategic Income)
    Hi, guys.
    Two quick notes.
    (1) Teresa Kong, the manager, projects high single- to low-double digit returns in 2021.
    We think EM corporates will outperform EM sovereign credits ... EM investors are still largely invested in EM sovereigns, not EM corporates. The EM hard currency corporate market is dominated by Asian issuers, of which more than half are China issuers. Given the V-shaped recovery of China and the positive spillovers onto much of the region, we expect Asia to outperform other EM regions. We also expect Asian corporates to outperform corporates from all other EM regions. When you take into account a yield of about 7.4% in Asia high yield, with help of some credit spread tightening, we are looking at returns of high single digits to 10% next year.
    Corporate Emerging Market Debt Poised to Shine in 2021 (12/15/2020)
    (2) Ms. Kong is pretty good at her job. I did a quick check at MFO Premium and she's pretty much consistently above average for returns, downside, and risk-adjusted returns. Typically, mid-single digit annual returns. The fund has an R-squared of just 6 against the US bond market and 40-ish against US equities, which likely reflects their corporate bond orientation.
    I've owned the fund since launch as a diversifying holding in my fixed income sleeve; T. Rowe Price Spectrum Income is the other fund in that box for me. That's not particularly an argument that the fund (a) is great or (b) makes sense for you, but a potential 9 or 10% fixed-income return has some attraction.
    As ever,
    David
  • Well isn't this special........D.C.
    It's time to invoke the 25th amendment.
    Probably the only time I can ever say “ I agree with you”
  • Energy Remains the Most Undervalued Sector -- M*
    @Derf Perhaps the domestic oil patch experienced enough carnage in 2020 and midstream suffered (and changed) enough over the course of the past 1/2 decade that both are poised to serve as good multi-year investments at this point. That's my generalist's assessment. Time will tell if it is correct.
    2020 investments in high income portfolio included:
    **RTLR in April and some more in September
    **FANG, KMI, and ENB from August to November
    (FANG has more than doubled since purchase to become the portfolio's largest holding. It just passed AVGO and is nearing 5% of the portfolio. So it may soon be time to consider a little trimming. But, no thoughts of more selling than that.)
  • MFO Premium Webinar: Guest Lynn Bolin and Back To Basics
    And here's link to chart deck of afternoon general overview session given number of new users.
    And attendant video.
  • The Making of Biden's Superfast Push for Clean Electricity
    This article looks at the potential impact of Democratic control of the Senate on Biden's climate proposals. Manchin's chair of the energy committee will soften the potential blows to carbon based fuels.
    https://news.trust.org/item/20210107110130-qn5pf/
  • MFO Premium Webinar: Guest Lynn Bolin and Back To Basics
    Thanks for setting up the Webinar @Charles and to those who joined in. Explaining how the systems works and what it means makes me think things through. As I mentioned, I just set up the three trending buckets. Since the Webinar, I realized that I need to fine tune them. Here are the recent changes that I made:
    Trending Bucket
    The Trending Bucket did a good job of showing the funds that have high 3 month trends, 3 month returns, and cash inflows, but I would buy the funds because "I was late to the party." I changed the Trending Bucket to only show funds that were less than 7 points above their 10 month moving average. Upon due diligence, these would be worth considering by some investors.
    Name, Symbol, MaxDD, APR, Rtn 3 mon, Trend, Flow, SMA10
    VanEck Vectors Fallen Angel High Yield Bond ETF, (ANGL), -14.1, 14.9, 9.5, 3.8, 8.5, 1.6
    Vanguard Intern Div Appreciation Index ETF, (VIGI), -18.8, 20.9, 13.8, 7.4, 7.4, 5.3
    Vanguard Intern Div Appreciation Index Admiral, (VIAAX), -18.8, 20.9, 13.8, 7.4, 7.4, 5.3
    Vanguard ESG International Stock ETF, (VSGX), -22.9, 18.1, 16.1, 8, 11.5, 3.8
    Nuveen ESG Small-Cap ETF, (NUSC), -30.8, 24.8, 29.3, 11.3, 9.4, 5.9
    Crossing Bucket
    I simplified this bucket and fine tuned it to be based more on three month trends to better identify trending funds that are near their ten month moving average. As I pointed out in the Webinar I have owned VGWAX and VEUSX since the 2020 market correction and the adjustments identify these funds. The funds crossing their ten month moving average are value and global funds.
    Name, Symbol, MaxDD, APR, Rtn 3 mon, Trend, Flow, SMA10
    Vanguard Windsor Inv, (VWNDX), -28.1, 18.4, 23, 9.5, 10.6, 0.6
    American Funds Capital Income Builder F1, (CIBFX), -15.5, 10, 9.5, 5.1, 3.2, 0
    Vanguard Global Wellington Admiral, (VGWAX), -15.6, 14.6, 10, 5.1, 6.9, 1.9
    Nuance Mid Cap Value Inst, (NMVLX), -19.2, 17.1, 15.3, 5.5, 1, 1.7
    Vanguard European Stock Index Admiral, (VEUSX), -25.7, 15, 16.4, 9.3, 11.3, 0
    Bottom Fishing Bucket
    The Bottom Fishing Bucket is where I made the most changes. I added that the funds must not only have positive 3 month trends, returns, and money inflows, but added that the trends have to beat some percentage of the median trend and inflow and now look for the ones furthest below the ten month moving average. Of the funds that I track, real estate is showing the biggest signs of recovering.
    Name, Symbol, MaxDD, APR, Rtn 3 mon, Trend, Flow, SMA10
    American Century NT Global Real Estate G, (ANRHX), -22.7, 14.8, 9.6, 5.5, 3.2, -6.1
    Cohen & Steers Realty Shares Inc L, (CSRSX), -23.7, 13.6, 8.6, 4.9, 5.1, -6.5
    Vanguard Real Estate Index ETF, (VNQ), -25, 10.8, 9.2, 5.1, 5.6, -7.8
    BlackRock iShares US Real Estate ETF, (IYR), -25.6, 10.2, 8, 4.5, 12, -8.2
    Virtus Duff & Phelps Global Real Estate Secur, (VGISX), -25.7, 13.3, 13.4, 6.9, 1.5, -7.9
    Have a great weekend.
  • Well isn't this special........D.C.
    It's time to invoke the 25th amendment.
    In a somewhat more forgotten corner of the Constitution is the Disqualification Clause (Section 3) of the 14th Amendment.
    Section Three of the Fourteenth Amendment disqualifies an individual from serving as a state or federal official if that person has "engaged in insurrection or rebellion against" the United States. Although the clause was written in the context of the Civil War, it would theoretically still apply for members of future rebellions or insurrections against the United States.
    https://www.law.cornell.edu/wex/fourteenth_amendment_0
    Congress put teeth into this by passing the Enforcement Act of 1870. Section 15 reads:
    And be it further enacted, that any person who shall hereafter knowingly accept or hold any office under the United States, or any state to which he is ineligible under the third section of the fourteenth article of amendment of the constitution of the United States, or who shall attempt to hold or exercise the duties of any such office, shall be deemed guilty of a misdemeanor against the United States, and, upon conviction thereof before the circuit or district court of the United States, shall be imprisoned not more than one year, or fined not exceeding one thousand dollars, or both, at the discretion of the court.
    There's an interesting footnote, literally, to this section of the Amendment. It says that in 1885 the Attorney General issued an opinion that this disqualification from holding federal office does not apply to those receiving Presidential pardons before this Amendment was adopted. Which suggests that even a pardon is insufficient to permit someone who has engaged in insurrection to hold federal office.
    Just something to keep in mind in case you're the town's lowly dog catcher (who has taken an oath of office) and are thinking about storming, say, the Library of Congress. Or perhaps more relevant to this forum, looting the US Treasury.
  • Well isn't this special........D.C.
    Totally concur with the 25th amendment.
    Frank Bowman, a professor of constitutional law at the University of Missouri, said Trump “arguably fomented sedition,” or an attempted overthrowing of the U.S. government.
    But Bowman said Trump could also be impeached for a more general offence: disloyalty to the U.S. Constitution and failing to uphold his oath of office. Congress has discretion in defining a high crime and misdemeanor and is not limited to actual criminal offences.
    “The essential offence would be one against the Constitution - one of essentially trying to undermine the lawful results of a lawfully conducted election,” Bowman said.
    https://reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-removal-explainer/explainer-can-trump-be-removed-from-office-before-his-term-ends-on-jan-20-idUSKBN29C01I?il=0