MFO Premium Webinar: Guest Lynn Bolin and Back To Basics Mike, I like MFO's Portfolio Tool for the metrics. I use Fidelity's because it it quick and combines funds held elsewhere. Morningstar's has some neat features, but I haven't used it in a while. The December data is available on MFO. I uploaded them into my Ranking System. Here are some of the defensive funds that I own or have written about recently. Over the past few months I sold or reduced holdings in SWAN, DRSK, IAU, and TAIL. I will cover the December Rankings in the Webinar.
Name, Symbol, Lynn's Rank, MaxDD, APR, Rtn 3 mon, Trend, Flow, Yield, SMA10
Aptus Defined Risk, (DRSK), 89.2, -3.1, 13.4, 0.2, 0.6, 4.5, 1.18, 5.3
KL Allocation Inst, (GAVIX), 82, -2, 17.2, 4.9, 3, -0.1, 2.16, 11.3
BlackRock iShares Gold, (IAU), 78.2, -10.3, 21.2, 0.2, 2.4, -0.5, 0, 12.6
T Rowe Price Multi-Strtgy Tot Rtrn, (TMSRX), 77.1, -4.7, 10.3, 4.6, 2, 9.5, 0.83, 4.5
Amplify BlackSwan Growth & Treas Core, (SWAN), 62.4, -5, 19.4, 5.1, 3, 0.4, 0.35, 7.8
Invesco S&P 500 Downside Hdgd, (PHDG), 56.4, -6.2, 13.4, 0.3, 1.5, -0.1, 0.64, 14.6
Hussman Strategic Total Return, (HSTRX), 45.3, -2, 11.4, 0.4, 0.5, -1.7, 0.52, 8.7
ATAC Rotation Inv, (ATACX), 20.5, -8.1, 36.3, 16, 9.4, -4.4, 0.06, 29.1
Cambria Tail Risk ETF, (TAIL), 19, -14, -4.1, -5.1, -1.7, -7.1, 0.36, 3.3
HNDL One won't know until after the end of the year, when the ETF can calculate the exact numbers, how much of any distribution consisted of ROC. Until then, all figures are estimates:
The Fund will provide disclosures, with each monthly distribution, that estimate the percentages of the current and year-to-date distributions that represent (1) net investment income, (2) capital gains and (3) return of capital. At the end of the year, the Fund may be required under applicable law to re-characterize distributions made previously during that year among (1) ordinary income, (2) capital gains and (3) return of capital for tax purposes. An additional distribution may be made in December ...
Prospectus, p. 16 (pdf p. 18); emphasis added.
Historically, every one of the estimates included a nonzero return of capital as part of the distributions. See
this page, click on "Distributions" tab.
For example, the estimate for the December distribution shows nearly
5/6 (82.3%) of the distribution coming from return of capital.
http://strategysharesetfs.com/wp-content/uploads/funds/7handl/Rule19a_1_2020_12_Distribution.pdf[A marketing note: the ETF says that it is 23% leveraged. It computes this by dividing the amount of leverage by the market exposure. It gives
an example of buying a house with 77% down and 23% borrowed. This is really 30% leverage in terms of your money at risk. If that $100K house loses 10% of value, your $77K investment has declined $10K, which is a 13% decline not a 12.3% loss.]
The Making of Biden's Superfast Push for Clean Electricity A puzzle piece that might help solve the funding part of Biden's energy policy challenge:
Biden, who oversaw the Obama administration’s stimulus work as vice president, unknowingly left himself a down-payment for the work ahead: $40 billion in unused Energy Department loan authority awarded under the 2009 stimulus. That pot of money could offer a way to kick start his climate and infrastructure plan
the incoming Biden administration could simply tweak the loan program’s language to make it the backbone of a government-wide clean lending bank that enables the rapid deployment of new innovations, like the installation of batteries and other energy storage technology to support the growth of renewable power.
https://politico.com/news/2021/01/01/biden-clean-energy-453171
TAIL I had owned TAIL recently after instead using SDS for hedging earlier on. Such investments end up being somewhat expensive market "insurance", since equities tend to go up maybe 75%- 80% of the time.
Learned that I'd rather just own more conservative investments instead (or move to cash) if I'm getting nervous.
MFO Premium Webinar: Guest Lynn Bolin and Back To Basics Please join us.
This Tuesday,
5 January.
First session will feature my colleague Lynn Bolin, who contributes regularly to Mutual Fund Observer and Seeking Alpha. Second session will be overview.
Register
here.
Is Berkshire more like a Mutual Fund than a stock? You are confusing price momentum with growth. A value or blend stock can also beat the S&P 500’s returns. They can also have price momentum. Growth is about revenues, cash flow and earnings versus the benchmark and industry peers and it’s forward looking, not from five or ten years ago.
TAIL It did well during the COVID correction. How much do folks think they would need to hold to make a meaningful difference in a bear market? Charles Lynn Bolin has noted it several times in his nutrient dense articles. I think Meb Faber said he has 25ish percent of his money in TAIL although I feel like he was ambiguous as to whether this was personal portfolio vs his net worth since he own Cambria.
Perpetual Buy/Sell/Why Thread @Mark It seems likely that is at least partly due to it being a fund of funds. Here are the top holdings per M*. Also, per M* turnover is currently 389%. So, they keep active with their fund trading. That helped last winter.
Per their fact sheet "By using liquid investment products, opportunities can be seized and risk can be managed effectively." A "Monthly Strategy Focus Report" I got from them indicated their actively invested portfolio percent changed from 86.4
5% on 10/31 to 178.98% on 11/20!
Per M*:
Top 9/30/20 Holdings............................% Portfolio
Fidelity® Inv MM Fds Government .............40.83
AlphaCentric Income Opportunities ...........1
5.81
BlackRock High Yield Bond Instl.................14.1
5Recv Nuveen Prf Secs Inc...........................13.79
Pimco Govt Mm Instl..................................10.
55Braddock Multi-Strategy Income Instl........10.36
Eaton Vance Floating.................................10.3
Columbia Mortgage Opportunities Inst3.....10
M* LinkFact Sheet
