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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Long term owner of MWTRX
    However, if you are a conservative investor looking for a low risk floating rate fund you may want to check out MWFRX/MWFLX. It's standard deviation is 6.2%, according to M*, and during the market crash in March 2020 it lost "only" 8.35%, whereas RSFLX lost 14%.
    Here is what dtconroe said about the fund in January 2020:
    "The Bank Loan/Floating rate bond oef, that I would most likely invest in, is MWFRX/MWFLX. It is from a stable of bond oefs, offered by Met West, and it has an established history of being managed very conservatively, at least "conservative" for a sector HY bond category."
    Since we are talking about HY bond funds, and the OP said to "Keep it coming", may I suggest also checking out OSTIX, a short term HY fund that according to M* is "[...] a unique high-yield offering with a strong risk-adjusted return profile, particularly over the longer term." It also rates the fund's risk as "low".
    While its YTD total return is a respectable 5.14%, its 3, 5, 10 and 15 year returns range consistently between 5 and 6%. The fund's average effective duration is currently 2.28, and the standard deviation 5.74%.
    OSTIX's consistent performance over the past 15 years recommends it as a possible long term holding. Thought it deserves to be mentioned.
    Good luck,
    Fred
  • Anyone adding Chinese stocks /mutual funds etf?
    @dafor Quartz looks interesting. What do you think of it? Cost?
    It costs me $50 per year (~$1/wk.) As I recall the current headline rate is $100 but they have frequent discount offers. Signing up for the Daily Read ( at qz.com ) provides a sense for what they offer. I typically read one or two articles per day and sometimes follow their deep dives into particular topics.....cost seems fair to me.
  • Anyone adding Chinese stocks /mutual funds etf?
    @dafor Quartz looks interesting. What do you think of it? Cost?
    I tip toed into MCSMX Mathews small companies China fund, figuring it was a safer way to get Chinese exposure than the large caps ( BABA etc) that are getting all of the pressure.
    So far it is down 2%
    One interesting ETF is XSOE Wisdom tree "ex-state owned industries" that focuses on companies not contaminated by state control, figuring they will preform better. While it has a fair amount of the Chinese targets ( 30%) most positions are in Taiwan, India Russia etc.
    5% each BABA and Tencent
    The Morningstar article, unfortunately like almost everything else they publish now, is so generic to be worthless. Listing almost 50 "small cap funds" is not research, it is advertisement. I am surprised there are investment professionals are willing to put their names on this junk.
    It is hard to believe they can sink any lower and provide any less useful information for individual investors, especially after their "quantitative take " on Fund Analysis, but I guess you should never underestimate low
  • Anyone adding Chinese stocks /mutual funds etf?
    Opened partial positions in TCEHY and BABA a few weeks ago. Think the goal is to reshape the giants rather than kill them. A couple of articles from this morning's reading:
    Alibaba expands cloud business
    Xi Jinping’s vision for China
  • Anyone adding Chinese stocks /mutual funds etf?
    Today’s M* has an article devoted to contrarian plays, with China one of them. There’s a list of stocks and a couple of Matthews funds for the adventuresome.
    https://www.morningstar.com/articles/1062165/3-investing-ideas-for-contrarians
  • Vanguard...a different peek under the hood of the organization
    I calc a 35 year married employee is leaving with an extra $280,000 fund. No wonder they screamed. Of course, at most companies the screaming would not have mattered.
  • unusually fine SWR writeup (john tyler williamson)
    Sure it is (a crap shoot). Look at his conclusion:
    “ Keep in mind that the 4% rule (or the 4.5% rule, or any X% rule) is a backward-looking observation that is meant to be used as a guideline. It is only a rule of thumb. It makes no promises or guarantees about the future. Allow it to provide a framework for expectations, but remain flexible, particularly in regards to spending in retirement.”
  • Selling or buying the dip ?!
    Just wanted to add one last post to this thread.
    Today the S&P is currently within 0.5% of it's previous HIGH. Given that and scoring at home, when we get to this point I consider the current Dip/Diplet effectively over. YMMV (but I'm not sure why it would).
    So for this latest Dip/Diplet (DOWN from 4,537), the correct response was to BUY or HOLD it, not SELL it.
    FWIW, we made a few broad market BUYs and started DCA'ing into two new stock ETFs around S&P 4,300 using cash, CD proceeds and bond OEF SALE proceeds. Those new BUYs are UP in aggregate ~5%.
    PLEASE don't try to frame this as boasting or bragging (though I know some will). It's simply a statement of what we've been doing since the March 2020 crash. It's worked EVERY time so far and ALL Dip/Diplet BUYs are now UP between 5% (most recent Dip) - 70% (post-crash BUYs). BUY funds would have all been stagnant, losing money or barely treading water had they been left where they were.
    So if any further studies are presented showing Dip/Diplet BUYing does NOT work, please at least add a footnote regarding the March 2020-current as an outlier performance period.
  • Robert T. Gardiner announced future plans to change his role at Grandeur Peak Global Advisors, LLC
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/915802/000139834421020090/fp0069682_497.htm
    497 1 fp0069682_497.htm
    FINANCIAL INVESTORS TRUST: GRANDEUR PEAK FUNDS
    Grandeur Peak Global Contrarian Fund
    Grandeur Peak Global Micro Cap Fund
    Grandeur Peak Global Opportunities Fund
    Grandeur Peak Global Stalwarts Fund
    (the “Funds”)
    SUPPLEMENT DATED OCTOBER 19, 2021 TO THE SUMMARY PROSPECTUS AND
    PROSPECTUS DATED AUGUST 31, 2021, AS SUBSEQUENTLY AMENDED
    On October 19, 2021, Robert T. Gardiner announced future plans to change his role at Grandeur Peak Global Advisors, LLC (the “Adviser”) in connection with an extended sabbatical commencing on approximately July 1, 2022 (the “Effective Date”).
    During the sabbatical, Mr. Gardiner intends to continue to serve as Chairman and member of the Board of Managers of the Adviser but, for a period of approximately three years following the Effective Date, he will no longer serve in a guardian portfolio management role for these Funds. Therefore, all references to Mr. Gardiner in the Summary Prospectuses and Prospectus will be deleted as of that date.
    INVESTORS SHOULD RETAIN THIS SUPPLEMENT FOR FUTURE REFERENCE
  • Selling or buying the dip ?!
    Added ASML (thx Old_Joe advise) SOXL little bitcoins and shiba recently
    401k tsp still 90:10 distributions mostly in 2045 and 2050Tdf vpccx vgstx VDE
  • A Flexible Fund Adept at Finding Income - FMSDX / by Lewis Braham in Barron’s
    I put a big slug into it some time ago, much thanks to Bolin and others, and while I am not seeing that it notably improves on VONE + STIP 50-50 (or close proportion of your choosing), they do do a good job. ~300% turnover!
  • The General Employment Strike of 2020-2022
    Here's an NPR piece about how Ford raising his workers' wages helped to create the middle class. It concludes with the statement:
    [A] century after Henry Ford started paying $5 a day, it's not at all clear that today's employers and workers can reach a similar bargain and reboot a 21st century version of the working middle class.
    https://www.npr.org/2014/01/27/267145552/the-middle-class-took-off-100-years-ago-thanks-to-henry-ford
    Just maybe it can happen.
    This will benefit not only workers now but when they retire. The Social Security Primary Insurance Amount (what you'd get if you retired at your Full Retirement Age) is based on your past earnings, adjusted to the year you can first retire (minus 2). That adjustment is determined not by inflation, but rather by the rise in average wages.
    So as the quality of life for workers rises over time (the so called "American Dream"), so does the value of one's SS benefits.
    https://www.ssa.gov/oact/cola/awifactors.html
    I'm cautiously optimistic about consumer discretionary. Not the Tiffany's, but the Disney's. Sure, costs at places like Disneyland will rise, but as in Ford's time maybe now many people will be able to afford that vacation or that night out at Applebee's that they've been putting off. And not just because of the pandemic.
  • When will my TD Ameritrade account become a Schwab account?
    @Jim0445,
    This past Friday one of their traders read to me their internal communication which suggests the current target date is between April 2023 and October 2023. So, your $15 commission should be good at least until then. BTW, your rate was good for both buys and sells but TD recently removed commission on the sell trades for non-NTF funds. Did you mock up a trade to see if that change is applied to your account?
  • When will my TD Ameritrade account become a Schwab account?
    I just read Internet news that some TD Ameritrade accounts would not migrate to Schwab until 2023. Has anyone received definitive word on this? I'm hanging around waiting to see if Schwab honors my $15 commission rate (grandfathered from Scottrade) to buy non-NTF funds like Vanguard or Dodge & Cox.
  • No way.... ENIC
    Are you asking why the beta is so low in magnitude (since the price moves sharply, one might expect the beta to be higher), or why it's that high, or even why it isn't negative (since the US market has trended up in the past few months while ENIC has trended down)? I really can't tell what you're expecting from this chart.
    One can take the data from the past 12 months and smooth it by looking at monthly returns. In seven months (Oct, Nov and Dec 2020, Jan, March, Aug and Sept 2021) it moved in the same direction as the US equity market; in the other five months it moved in the opposite direction. Consequently one might expect a relatively flat (small slope, i.e. beta) regression line.
    See this PortfolioVisualizer chart comparing ENIC and VFIAX. Clicking on the Metrics shows a beta for ENIC of 0.84, but with a small R² of just 21%.
    Regardless of what value the calculation produces for beta, it's pretty much meaningless because of the low correlation.
    Of course I'm assuming that your beta is relative to the US market. If you're using a different (and hopefully better) benchmark, that could make the beta value meaningful.
  • No way.... ENIC
    but, so... that chart makes it clear: how in the world can the beta on ENIC be 0.65? That's absurd.
    Point taken.
    Terrible confession here - I don’t look at beta and couldn’t have told you what it was without reading this link. What is beta?.
    Being a utility, one would expect a low beta. If this is domiciled in Chili, that’s another matter. Personally, charts are where I look before buying anything. That and things like PEs / balance sheets / prospects for type of fund or industry.
    @Crash - Your entry point of $2.97 sounds reasonable looking at the chart. The stock peaked out at near $4.50 within the past year.
    ENIC Group Wikipedia https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ENIC_Group
    Enel Chili Wikipedia https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Enel_Generación_Chile
    I’m not sure that .65 beta pertained to the Chilean utility. See above links. Appear to be two different companies.
    Wondering if these are listed under two different stock exchanges and the “ENIC” symbol is perhaps leading to confusion?
  • The General Employment Strike of 2020-2022
    Howdy folks,
    It's going on as we watch. How can we play it?
    All around us, not only in the US, but overseas as well, we're witnessing (and participating in) a General Strike by workers everywhere. 'Take this job and shove it. I ain't working here no more'.
    Workers have more power than they've had in decades and they're using it. Deere and Kellogg are out and on the west coast, the TV and Movie peeps narrowly avoided a strike because management caved in on every issue. At Deere, they were offered 5-6% and the workers are saying, Stuff It. I seriously believe the west coast hospital workers will walk and think of their leverage. And folks, this is only the beginning. Pilots can't strike, but they sure can get sick. Oh, and think how easy it is right now to supplement your strike pay. McDonald's is hiring at $21 per hour. This seems to me that the workers are going to win. Tough to bet against them.
    The pandemic has created a perfect storm for workers and employment in general.
    1. Not safe to go to work because of the virus.
    2. Kids at home.
    3. Tired of receiving shit wages for shit work.
    4. Additional unemployment benefits [although the bs the republicans spread about exacerbating the problem has proven to be just that - BS. Indeed, the states that cut benefits early not only didn't see any reduction in help wanted signs, but it actually hurt their overall economies more than the states that maintained them due to a reduced aggregate demand.]
    5. Lack of some spending - travel, dining out, concerts, movies, etc. - has allowed many households to become cash flush.
    6. Perfect opportunity to change careers.
    7. Virtual options for financial gain - Ebay, Market Place, OnlyFans, etc. My barber has a friend, who is buying Amazon 2nds for peanuts and reselling them.
    Sokay, how to play?
    Watch for the companies that figure it out and take the 'high road' vs. the ones that don't. A very easy tell, is whether there are Help Wanted signs or not. The businesses with pervasive help wanted signs are having a very tough time even staying open. How many restaurants do you know with reduced hours and menus? Which are simply raising wages and benefits and not bitching.
    New industries that get it (e.g. pot. I was talking with a budista and he said, they were receiving great pay and benefits and it was the best job he'd had in years).
    Short? Anyone that relies on truck drivers. Again, POT. To drive a semi, you have to have a CDL. With a CDL, you are subject to random drug testing and pot has a half life of 30 days. Hell, they're pushing to allow teenagers to drive. Feh, in my state, you've got to be 21 to buy pot.
    Just a start of a discussion.
    and so it goes,
    peace and wear the damn mask,
    rono
  • Let the SS COLA Projections for 2022 Begin
    It was a nice clean calculation (+1).
    One needs to read the source cited for the estimated 2022 premium to discover the ultimate source. That's the 2021 annual report of the Medicare trustees.
    https://www.cms.gov/files/document/2021-medicare-trustees-report.pdf
    A few items in that report worth mentioning:
    1. The premium is computed based on expected 2022 costs for Medicare (pdf p.26, second paragraph). That's no different from what virtually every other insurer does when setting premiums. This calculation is de novo; it does not look at what the premium was last year.
    2. The $158.50 estimate does not (yet?) include the impact of covering Aduhelm (pdf p94, bottom paragraph). So that might affect the final numbers.
    3. There's a $3 claw back for some premium reductions (hold harmless reductions and the 2021 cap on the premium increase). Pdf p. 89. This is projected to be added onto premiums through 2025 (pdf. p 90, 2nd full paragraph).
    In a desperate attempt to relate this to mutual funds, I'll point out that this claw back is very similar to the claw back that mutual funds employ with temporary fee waivers. See, e.g. TRBUX (gross ER 0.29%, but net ER of 0.31% including a 0.02% claw back).
  • Sports betting
    Hi @Derf -
    Michigan legalized online gaming early in 2021. I’ve mixed feelings. The thought of some father squandering away the rent money spinning a roulette wheel or playing black-jack online is not a little troubling.. This (legalization) is part of a trend nationwide aimed at increasing state revenues. My “interest” has been limited to small wagers on NCAA basketball games being watched evenings during our darkest winter months. Looked at 2 or 3 betting sites and thought for what I wanted DKNG was tops. It’s a smooth operation. What’s appealing is the ability to buy and sell positions while the game is in progress. ISTM That to large extent you’re basically wagering against the “crowd” following along at the same time. I ended the season with a profit of $8.00 (yes - eight dollars). Have done somewhat better with the stock. :)
    After moving to Fido it became possible to acquire individual stocks. So I plunked a very small amount down on DKNG - which I still own. One allure of having some individual stocks is they often move opposite the major indexes, actually serving to mitigate daily volatility inside a predominately fund centric portfolio. The biggest drawback is their wild fluctuations over time. (See @Crash’s recent post). Charts showed DKNG had topped $70 earlier in the year. It had fallen to the mid $40s when I picked a bit up. So it’s ranged from over $70 to below $40 this year. It’s probably the smallest investment (amount) of anything I own.
    Since announcing an attempt to acquire a large European gaming company a month or more ago, DKNG has been in a downward slide - mid $40 range at present. Here’s a FT LINK to that takeover story - not yet completed. Here’s an alternative STORY if unable to link the FT article. (It’s normal for acquiring companies’ stock prices to fall initially.) A short seller with a good track record (for integrity) broadsided DKNG in June with a report one of their recent acquisitions had ties to organized crime in Europe. That’s the main reason the stock fell back than.
    I wasn’t aware of the SPAC deal you referenced. However, it’s likely part of a a “dog-eat-dog” battle going on among the top betting sites in the U.S. There are more than a half dozen players, with DraftKings and Fan Duel neck & neck. MGM in pursuit. It’s thought the market will only support about 3. So the fight is over market dominance before it’s too late. That may shed light on your story. There is an investigation into the charges against DKNG by the U.S. government - not sure which agency. And a big unknown is NY state. Apparently they will allow only some players to operate there when online gaming starts. The big fear is that taxes on their profits will be so high the companies won’t be able to operate profitably.
    Not sure if these companies qualify as “meme“ types - but people should be aware they are wildly popular among small retail investors and, hence, possibly overvalued. Cathie Wood picked up a slug of DKNG about the time I acquired my holding.