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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • CTFAX - COLUMBIA THERMOSTAT FUND ALLOCATION UPDATE
    A snippet of Morningstar's CTFAX analysis dated 04/30/2021.
    "In 2018, when the current managers took over the fund, a new layer was added to the process that includes an assessment of whether the stock market is 'expensive' or 'normal.' This is determined by comparing the seven-year cyclically-adjusted earnings of the S&P 500 to the past 40 years. When this metric shows markets are in the most expensive quintile over that time period, it is deemed to be expensive. Under an expensive market, the fund’s equity allocation could shift from 10% to 90% (the fund’s historical range) but in 'normal' conditions the equity allocation is floored at 50%. This new approach should help the fund keep pace with its benchmark better when the stocks are rallying but not in their most expensive quintile. The trade-off is that it may not do as well at protecting against sudden sharp drawdowns when its equity allocation is at the floor."
  • What's happening with AOFAX?
    @billr et al: Alger makes it tough to get into its mutual funds, especially the small and mid cap focus strategies managed by Amy Zhang. She helped make BCSIX a success before decamping for Alger in 2015. Just this year Alger opened an opaque (my editorial comment) MCG ETF managed by Ms Zhang. FRTY does not have much of a track record yet but it appears to have shot up out of the gate and then returned to earth like AOFAX. This month Alger announced a large cap ETF that will have 35 positions, but not a Zhang product. From what I garner on the website, the list of holdings is not revealed daily. Detailed holdings are provided as of 4/30/21, so one eventually gets to look under the hood. Active management by a proven growth manager in an easily traded format. Alger warns that the market price may not accurately reflect the value of the assets held on a given day. @fundfun: FRTY reports a P/E of around 38.
  • What will you do if (when?)...."frothy" markets turn into a Scheisse Fest?
    RPIEX. Overall performance this year is good. But still, the dividends are paltry. 51% in "cash?" They can't mean actual "cash" or MM? Could they???
    Hi @Crash, Good question. As we’ve discussed before, funds that short stocks need to carry large cash balances. RPIEX may not short stocks (to any large degree anyway), but it does short bonds. That’s how it intends to make money during a period of rising interest rates (which everybody plus the alley cat assumes is going to happen). As with TMSRX, TRP is offering a fund here that might “buck the trend” should both equities and bonds tank.
    Because it shorts bonds, I think we can assume RPIEX is required by SEC regs to maintain a high cash level. I don’t fully understand all this - but am learning along with the rest of us.
    Here’s a SOURCE that addresses stock shorts. Pretty sure the same applies to bond shorts.
    “Regulation T (or Reg T) was established by the Fed in order to regulate the way brokers lend to investors. It requires short trades to have 150% of the value of the position at the time the short is created and be held in a margin account. This 150% is made up of the full value, or 100% of the short plus an additional margin requirement of 50% or half the value of the position. In case you were wondering, the margin requirement for a long position is the same.
    Here's an example: If you were to short a stock and the position had a value of $20,000, you would be required to have a total of $30,000 in the account to meet the requirements of Regulation T—$20,000 from the short sale plus the additional $10,000.”

    I’ve considered this fund in the past. Never figured out how to work it into my asset allocation. However, I think you’ll find that TRP incorporates it into several of their allocation funds. It (in either investor or institutional class) comprises about 8% of PRSIX and 3.6% of TRRIX according to Yahoo. (Possibly, you own some RPIEX without realizing?)
  • CTFAX - COLUMBIA THERMOSTAT FUND ALLOCATION UPDATE
    Let's hope the timing is right on twice. The change from 10% equity from 50% is a significant departure. The managers must expect the Fed will not raise rates this year or next year in order to deal with inflation. No further details on the bond sectors the fund is invested in.
  • CTFAX - COLUMBIA THERMOSTAT FUND ALLOCATION UPDATE
    I've never heard of a fund company changing policy 2x in 1 year. Makes me question what management is doing. They probably should just create 2 funds, a conservative one with a 10% floor and a moderate one with with a 50% floor. Huge difference in how you use this fund. Their changing philosophies make it hard to know how it fits in your portfolio.
  • CTFAX - COLUMBIA THERMOSTAT FUND ALLOCATION UPDATE
    I charted COTZX against a more "static" conservative allocation fund (FCONX) as well as a VWINX. COTZX seems to have done a great job recently Identifying the March 2020 buying opportunity. I wonder if the fund can manage its high allocation to bonds with the same opportunity.
    PV Link
  • What's happening with AOFAX?
    Compare: 5 years from 05-13-2016 to 05-13-2021
    PRDSX: 111%
    BCSIX: 140%
    DVSMX: 190%
    AOFAX: 190%
    Relax.......
  • What's happening with AOFAX?
    Compare:
    PRDSX 3 mo -6.95%
    1 mo. -4.46
    1 week. -3.77
    YTD +1.53
  • When to take Social Security
    @billr: I did just what you contemplate. When I turned 66 and first filed for SS, we had two kids at home, one 15, the other 7. The benefits for each continued until their graduation from HS. In the case of the younger one, contributions to the Michigan Education Savings Program (TIAA managed) and invested in Global Equities amounted to a nice pile of dough for tuition, etc. I did not explore taking SS earlier than 66, but as @msf points out, it might have worked for us. FWIIW, I continued to work until 70.
    Thanks. Good to know it works. I'm still working (about 30 hrs per work) and spouse is still working as well and we're well over the $$ limits so I think I have to wait for FRA.
    I'm reading the kitces.com article now that "msf" posted.
  • When to take Social Security
    Additionally , I really liked the use of the word "only "
    "You will pay tax on only 85 percent of your Social Security benefits, based on Internal Revenue Service (IRS) rules. If you:
    file a federal tax return as an "individual" and your combined income* is
    between $25,000 and $34,000, you may have to pay income tax on up to 50 percent of your benefits.
    more than $34,000, up to 85 percent of your benefits may be taxable.
    file a joint return, and you and your spouse have a combined income* that is
    between $32,000 and $44,000, you may have to pay income tax on up to 50 percent of your benefits.
    more than $44,000, up to 85 percent of your benefits may be taxable."
    Thats a pretty low threshold of income .$44,000 of income between two people .
    https://www.ssa.gov/benefits/retirement/planner/taxes.html
  • CTFAX - COLUMBIA THERMOSTAT FUND ALLOCATION UPDATE
    Yes-this was the allocation policy before the 2020 change which established the stock floor at 50%. It's good to see Columbia go back to its original allocation, which differentiated this fund from other allocation funds. I wish they could just stick with the 10% stock floor and stop changing it based on asset inflows, etc !
  • Bridgeway Small Cap Growth Fund reorganization
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/916006/000119312521160629/d159594d497.htm
    497 1 d159594d497.htm BRIDGEWAY FUNDS INC
    BRIDGEWAY FUNDS, INC.
    Small-Cap Growth Fund
    Small-Cap Value Fund
    Supplement dated May 13, 2021
    to the Prospectus and Statement of Additional Information dated October 31, 2020
    At a meeting of the Board of Directors (the “Board”) of Bridgeway Funds, Inc. (“Bridgeway Funds”) held on May 13, 2021 (the “Meeting”), the Board unanimously approved a Plan of Reorganization (the “Plan”), providing for: (i) the conversion of the shares of the Small-Cap Growth Fund (the “SCG Fund”) into shares of the Small-Cap Value Fund (the “SCV Fund”) and (ii) the resulting transfer to the SCV Fund of all of the property, assets and goodwill of the SCG Fund (when completed, the “Conversion”). The Board determined that the Plan and Conversion would be in the best interests of the SCG Fund, the SCV Fund, and their respective shareholders. The effect of the Plan and Conversion will be that the SCG Fund shareholders would become shareholders of the SCV Fund.
    The Plan will require the approval of the shareholders of the SCG Fund. A special meeting of the shareholders of the SCG Fund is being called for that purpose. Shareholders of the SCG Fund will receive proxy solicitation materials providing them with information about the SCV Fund and Plan. If approved by shareholders of the SCG Fund, the Conversion is expected to take effect on or around the end of the third quarter of 2021. Share purchases of the SCG Fund will no longer be permitted approximately one week prior to the Conversion. Investors should check the Bridgeway Funds’ website (bridgewayfunds.com) for further information.
    PLEASE RETAIN THIS SUPPLEMENT FOR FUTURE REFERENCE
  • CTFAX - COLUMBIA THERMOSTAT FUND ALLOCATION UPDATE
    FYI, Effective May 1, 2021, Columbia Thermostat Fund has undergone changes to its allocation table. The fund’s assets are allocated to underlying equity and fixed-income funds according to the level of the S&P 500 Index. Based on the annual review, the decision was made to adjust the stock fund/bond fund allocation table. The new allocation is now 10% equity and 90% fixed-income; the prior allocation was 50% equity and 50% fixed-income.
    https://www.columbiathreadneedleus.com/binaries/content/assets/cti/public/THERMOSTAT_FUND_ALLOCATION_NEW_NOTEWORTHY.PDF
  • What will you do if (when?)...."frothy" markets turn into a Scheisse Fest?
    RPIEX. Overall performance this year is good. But still, the dividends are paltry. 51% in "cash?" They can't mean actual "cash" or MM? Could they???
  • A Bitcoin / Cryptocurrency thread & Experiment
    This should accelerate the move to renewable energy vs. coil to mine bitcoin. Bitcoin down quite a bit given Musk's statement.
    Timely given our discussion above: https://www.cnbc.com/2021/05/12/elon-musk-says-tesla-will-stop-accepting-bitcoin-for-car-purchases.html
    Saylor? He's buying the dip.
    Cuban? He's staying with bitcoin: https://twitter.com/mcuban/status/1392611938983632896
  • Buying this week's market dip?
    @Starchild, you must be refereing to the Kummelweck roll which has the kosher salt and caraway seeds...if in Buffalo you need to go to Charlie the Butcher's for one of these.
    Come to think of it, I haven't been to Buffalo that often, last time was a couple years ago for work, but love the people, they are all so authentic, good decent folks, love the city, love the Beef on Weck's!
    Baseball Fan
    Yes! unfortunately, 350 miles is a treck for a sandwiche!