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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Important 2021 Numbers
    For tax wonks: An organization must be more than merely nonprofit in order for contributions to it to be deductible. For example, superPACs are nonprofit 501(c)(4) organizations, yet a taxpayer cannot deduct contributions made to them.
    https://stateimpact.npr.org/florida/2013/04/05/explaining-the-differences-between-501c3-and-501c4-non-profits/
    MFO is a 501(c)(3) entity, so donations to MFO are deductible. Further, it is classified as a public charity. This can affect the amount of contributions that a taxpayer may deduct or carry over into future years. Being a public charity is also important because one can make QCDs only to public charities.
    https://www.fidelity.com/building-savings/learn-about-iras/required-minimum-distributions/qcds
    https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/Mutual-Fund-Observer-IRS-determination-letter.pdf
  • Janet Yellen supposedly Biden's pick for Treasury Secretary
    @wxman123 - who said "I don't have any great ideas on how we could have dealt with Covid any better." So you think that denying that it even existed, calling it names (China virus), calling it a hoax and stating that it would just magically disappear was the way to go huh? How has that worked out so far?
    You also said "How many lives were saved by shutting hair salons and gyms?" How would you even quantify this since the intent was to stop the spread of the virus between folks who don't frequently share their life's activities outside these venues. The same goes for wearing of the masks. I have lost friends in FL because of the moronic way the governor and money grubbing crowd in that state have chosen to deal with Covid. Unlike you I consider their choices as idiocy.
    Edited Sunday morning to add:
    Trump’s Operation Warp Speed promised a flood of covid vaccines. Instead, states are expecting a trickle.
    So maybe just a 10th as brilliant.
  • Important 2021 Numbers
    As I recently turned 70.5, my thoughts have been on doing some QCD's from my IRA. The first check from Vanguard was received and I forwarded the check this morning. This was a test for what I want to do starting next year.
    While reading this thread, the thought came to me that MFO also qualifies for this QCD treatment too. Am I right? If so, I would be a pleasure to add MFO to my list for next year.
    Dave
  • Bond mutual funds analysis act 2 !!
    There's more to analysis than reading numbers off a table or a chart. One needs to understand what they represent.
    First, notice that according to Yahoo, the return was 0.00% (no change) between March 4 and March 6. In contrast, M* reports a gain of 1.25 basis points from the 4th to the 5th, and a total gain of 5.02 basis points to the 6th. That's for both old and new charts.
    Best guess is that M* is reporting total return, including accrued divs. That's something Yahoo can't do because it doesn't get this data. It only gets the monthly paid divs, not the daily declared divs. Over the long haul, Yahoo is fine, but you two are quibbling over days' worth of returns.
    Second, while I don't have Yogi's email, if one looks at the old M* chart for the fund YTD a and mouses over Feb, one sees only weekly data points, not daily ones. Notice the dates given: 2/28 and 3/27, exactly four weeks apart (leap year). While not conclusive, this is evidence that the data presented had weekly granularity.
    Stockcharts? Try this link instead, it's a much cleaner performance graph. If you need to reset it to the appropriate period, set the slider width to 23 days (double click so that you can enter "23"), and slide it over (using arrow keys for fine tuning) to begin on Feb 24th. You'll notice that Feb 28th is 0.24% higher than the starting point of Feb 25th. Offhand, I'd guess that Stockcharts, like Yahoo, is looking at monthly divs paid rather than daily divs accrued. Hence the jump on the date the div was paid.
    Thus, according to Stockcharts, the max drawdown started on Feb 28th. (Set the slider width to 19 days, start the window on Feb 28; this goes through March 25th.) Stockcharts says that drawdown is -19.96%. But this excludes the daily divs, even though it purports to be a performance chart. So it overstates the magnitude of the drop, and it doesn't identify the correct date range for the max drawdown.
    We now return this channel to angels dancing on the head of a pin.
  • Bond mutual funds analysis act 2 !!
    dtconroe.
    I'm OK with VCFIX but the meltdown of over 18% was too much, even PIMIX was down less than that around 11%. I don't put a lot of faith in Schwab bond selections. I think Fidelity is better and free to all investors even if you are not a client, right now their selected Multi list(link) is as follows:PTIAX, HSNAX, BMSAX, DINAX, JHFIX (PONAX/PIMIX used to be on this list for years). Fidelity always promote their funds as selected but I disregard it until I verify their superiority and in most cases I can find better choices.
    I think funds like TSIIX,PTIAX are more of a hold than VCFIX.
    As usual, I don't trust any fund/managers, volatility can show up any time and I hope not to be there.
    wxman, GIBLX is still doing well in its category at one month=2.2% and 3 months=1.4% This is still in the top 15% in its M* category. For most investors who are looking for a ballast, performance and longer term hold, it's a great fund.
    For a much smaller group of investors like me, who rely more on bonds for higher performance and use momentum successfully, I hardly ever use Core and Core Plus funds. I would not recommend this for most investors.
    Junkster, I stayed away from IOFIX for several months after the crash, I made most of my money after that with HY munis. I wanted to see more calm and was glad the Fed actions worked. I sure missed a lot of performance from the bottom but I also missed all the meltdown in March of 2020 (documented in this thread). Every Saturday I write down my portfolio performance for the last week and YTD. I can't complain too much when I'm up 18% in 2020, only one week loss at -0.3%, 5 weeks at zero and the rest are all up.
    Great work FD, I wish I could say the same for my portfolio...but happy I'm up a bit. Been about 47% cash all this year. On the other hand, you could have stayed in ANBEX (one of your choices) and been up over 17% YTD while you did nothing but sip wine and coffee!
  • Janet Yellen supposedly Biden's pick for Treasury Secretary

    >> Covid, and, more accurately stated, the overblown and ineffective response ...
    >> ... the cure cannot be worse than the disease. That clearly has been the case with Covid.
    Say, since you are articulate and appear to give things thought, if you were in charge of both covid policy and energy policy, what would you advise? No changes?
    Serious question. From angry droning old white guy.
    >> still haven't explained what should be done that's preferable to what is already being done
    I missed the carbon tax and emissions and temperature mandates and the new federal land and forest management policies and and even the wee things like national seaweed research ...
    This is a high-level view of the state of play:
    https://www.brookings.edu/2019/03/22/where-does-u-s-climate-policy-stand-in-2019/
    Here is some tired old dated progtard reading, surely superseded (and strengthened by now):
    https://www.nrdc.org/stories/how-you-can-stop-global-warming
    https://www.climate.gov/news-features/climate-qa/what-can-we-do-slow-or-stop-global-warming
    https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/whats-in-a-half-a-degree-2-very-different-future-climates/
    https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/limiting-warming-to-1-5-celsius-will-require-drastic-action-ipcc-says/
    and mostly this is not out of the UN or the Paris Accords we pulled out of.

    I don't have any great ideas on how we could have dealt with Covid any better. Most of the strategies tried throughout the world ended up failing sans New Zealand (for the most part) clearly most of things we tried in the USA failed. Mother nature will usually have her way. You can't lock down people forever and masks really are only marginally effective (it seems) but I wear a mask, can't hurt (IMO). On the other hand, the shutdowns cost millions of jobs, depression, even suicide. How many lives were saved by shutting hair salons and gyms? I don't know but I doubt very many in the grand scheme. Operation warp speed seems brilliant but time will tell, not clear about the long term consequences of the vaccine (there is a phenomenon where it may even hurt in the real long term, like with the Dengue vaccine). I probably would have gone with the Florida approach. The covid there is as bad as mostly everywhere else but at least business owners are surviving, there is freedom of choice, and no outrageous hypocrisy from the leadership. As for energy, I'm good with common sense approaches, limiting emissions where we can, employing reasonable alternative energy where plausible. I'm not for plowing down vast stretches of land to install windmills nor agreeing to treaties where we do our part but most of the rest of the world goes their merry way.
  • Bond mutual funds analysis act 2 !!
    FD:"My calculation for peak to trough...VCFIX -19.7% from M* new charts found (here) from 2/25 (10000) to 3/25 (8027.67). Stockchart gives me -19.85% for VCFAX(link)"
    I used the performance chart system that Yogi sent out via email some time ago. On a YTD basis, VCFIX high was on 2/28 ($10,194) and its low was on 3/27 ($8553) for a difference of $1641.When you divide $1641 by $10194, that gives you 16.09% drop
    You looked at the old M* chart and I verified your numbers but I don't think they are accurate. I don't use the old M* chart anymore. The new M* chart is better.
    I can see closer numbers to mine it in 2 places + yahoo data below verifies that.
    image
  • The Technology Olympics - Reaching Quantum Supremacy
    While the current vaccine race has many components over many years to achieve what is now in place; the processing speeds of computer systems to help determine outcomes in many areas provides great benefit now and into the future in our lives.
    From an October, 2019 thread.
  • Is Oakmark going to offer a retail bond fund?
    Curiously, the advisor share class OAYMX of the Oakmark Fund OAKMX is available at Vanguard ($1,000 min), Fidelity ($2500 min), and TD Ameritrade ($100,000 min), but the advisor share class OAYCX of the Bond Fund is nowhere to be had.
    M* purchase page for OAYCX
    M* purchase page for OAYMX
    FWIW, the advisor share class has a slightly lower ER. So for long term investors it may be worth paying the TF for this cheaper share class of Oakmark funds when available.
  • Is Oakmark going to offer a retail bond fund?
    Oakmark has a bond fund in advisor and institutional share classes. No retail as of yet. Here is the December 2020 prospectus.
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/872323/000110465920111005/tm2031542-1_485apos.htm
  • Bond mutual funds analysis act 2 !!
    FD:"My calculation for peak to trough...VCFIX -19.7% from M* new charts found (here) from 2/25 (10000) to 3/25 (8027.67). Stockchart gives me -19.85% for VCFAX(link)"
    I used the performance chart system that Yogi sent out via email some time ago. On a YTD basis, VCFIX high was on 2/28 ($10,194) and its low was on 3/27 ($8553) for a difference of $1641.When you divide $1641 by $10194, that gives you 16.09% drop
  • Bond mutual funds analysis act 2 !!
    My calculation for peak to trough...VCFIX -19.7% from M* new charts found (here) from 2/25 (10000) to 3/25 (8027.67). Stockchart gives me -19.85% for VCFAX(link)
    I agree with you that if you are looking for a securitized bond fund VCFIX is a good one. I actually posted in several sites that I'm selling almost everything at the end of 02/2020 and the rest several days later. I don't feel guilty at all. These sites are just for information and each investor should do their own due diligence but I see your point ;-)
  • Bond mutual funds analysis act 2 !!
    FD: "I'm OK with VCFIX but the meltdown of over 18% was too much, even PIMIX was down less than that around 11%. I don't put a lot of faith in Schwab bond selections."
    We all look at criteria a bit differently in our analysis of bond oef selections. I calculated peak to trough losses in the March crash, and determined that IOFIX had a peak to trough loss of 41%, SEMMX a peak to trough loss of 24.5%, PUCZX a peak to trough loss of 16.8%, VCFIX a peak to trough loss of 16%, JMSIX a peak to trough loss of 14.8%, and PIMIX had a peak to trough loss of 12.8%. If I were looking only at peak to trough losses, I would definitely avoid IOFIX and SEMMX, of the other remaining funds PIMIX looks like the best choice. But I also look at how volatile the rebound performance is after the trough period, and funds like PIMIX and PUCZX, were very choppy and not smooth at all.
    VCFIX peak to trough loss is troublesome, but its performance after the trough loss, has been one of the smoothest of all these funds. I am not all "comfortable" with VCFIX as a "safe" choice now, but it shows some positive, low risk, low volatile after crash performance. It is just a fund worth considering, but everyone has to be comfortable with the criteria they have adopted. I am not recommending VCFIX to anyone, so everyone has to look at it from the perspective of their investing approach. You and I both got criticized significantly after the March crash because we did not do a good job of telling others that we were doing a lot of selling of the funds mentioned above, and as a result I will not tell anyone what I am investing in any longer. I only mentioned VCFIX as a fund worth looking at again based on Schwab recommendations and the smooth rebound performance pattern of VCFIX
  • Janet Yellen supposedly Biden's pick for Treasury Secretary

    >> Covid, and, more accurately stated, the overblown and ineffective response ...
    >> ... the cure cannot be worse than the disease. That clearly has been the case with Covid.
    Say, since you are articulate and appear to give things thought, if you were in charge of both covid policy and energy policy, what would you advise? No changes?
    Serious question. From angry droning old white guy.
    >> still haven't explained what should be done that's preferable to what is already being done
    I missed the carbon tax and emissions and temperature mandates and the new federal land and forest management policies and and even the wee things like national seaweed research ...
    This is a high-level view of the state of play:
    https://www.brookings.edu/2019/03/22/where-does-u-s-climate-policy-stand-in-2019/
    Here is some tired old dated progtard reading, surely superseded (and strengthened by now):
    https://www.nrdc.org/stories/how-you-can-stop-global-warming
    https://www.climate.gov/news-features/climate-qa/what-can-we-do-slow-or-stop-global-warming
    https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/whats-in-a-half-a-degree-2-very-different-future-climates/
    https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/limiting-warming-to-1-5-celsius-will-require-drastic-action-ipcc-says/
    and mostly this is not out of the UN or the Paris Accords we pulled out of.
  • Bond mutual funds analysis act 2 !!
    dtconroe.
    I'm OK with VCFIX but the meltdown of over 18% was too much, even PIMIX was down less than that around 11%. I don't put a lot of faith in Schwab bond selections. I think Fidelity is better and free to all investors even if you are not a client, right now their selected Multi list(link) is as follows:PTIAX, HSNAX, BMSAX, DINAX, JHFIX (PONAX/PIMIX used to be on this list for years). Fidelity always promote their funds as selected but I disregard it until I verify their superiority and in most cases I can find better choices.
    I think funds like TSIIX,PTIAX are more of a hold than VCFIX.
    As usual, I don't trust any fund/managers, volatility can show up any time and I hope not to be there.
    wxman, GIBLX is still doing well in its category at one month=2.2% and 3 months=1.4% This is still in the top 15% in its M* category. For most investors who are looking for a ballast, performance and longer term hold, it's a great fund.
    For a much smaller group of investors like me, who rely more on bonds for higher performance and use momentum successfully, I hardly ever use Core and Core Plus funds. I would not recommend this for most investors.
    Junkster, I stayed away from IOFIX for several months after the crash, I made most of my money after that with HY munis. I wanted to see more calm and was glad the Fed actions worked. I sure missed a lot of performance from the bottom but I also missed all the meltdown in March of 2020 (documented in this thread). Every Saturday I write down my portfolio performance for the last week and YTD. I can't complain too much when I'm up 18% in 2020, only one week loss at -0.3%, 5 weeks at zero and the rest are all up.
  • The Technology Olympics - Reaching Quantum Supremacy
    Separately China and Google have reached this computing milestone.
    Nobel Prize-winning physicist Richard Feynman was the first to suggest that the mind-bending properties of quantum mechanics could be harnessed to make a new kind of computer. Almost 40 years later and after a decade of significant progress -- and after a claim by Google that its computer had reached a milestone known as “quantum supremacy” -- it’s still easier to describe the approach’s potential importance than to describe how it works.
    image
    why-quantum-computers-will-be-super-awesome-someday-quicktake
  • Janet Yellen supposedly Biden's pick for Treasury Secretary
    @wxman123
    As for the coal minor, sure, a comparatively small industry, but one that is directly affected by the new green movement. Every life matters, right?
    Not apparently the thousands--soon to be millions--already displaced as climate refugees from their homes or apparently the sea otter to you. And of course there's the sheer absurdity of your assuming that reducing fossil fuel dependence and carbon emissions only destroys jobs and won't create any simultaneously. Reducing the world's carbon footprint will be an immense task that will create more jobs certainly than it destroys in the already moribund coal industry. But as I said previously and I maintain, none of this really matters to you. You know the science is true and the impact will be severe but just don't care.
    More "meaningless" science-y stuff: https://scientificamerican.com/article/would-a-green-new-deal-add-or-kill-jobs1/
    We estimate that the more conservative $25 carbon tax would boost U.S. employment by 1.4 million jobs each year between 2020 and 2030, which is nearly a 1 percent increase above the reference–case forecast of 160 million jobs in 2030. As the economy expands and the tax increases, job growth from the GND [i.e., Green New Deal] would accelerate, creating, on average, 3.4 million new jobs each year between 2040 and 2050—a nearly 2 percent increase above the 182 million jobs forecast for the U.S. in 2050. Overall, it is estimated that 72 million job years would be created over the three decades with a $25 carbon tax. (Note that if one job continues after one year for another 12 months, it represents two job years.)
    With the more aggressive $60 carbon tax, U.S. employment would still exceed the reference-case forecast, but the increase would be less than that of the $25 tax. The higher tax causes much larger supply-side job losses, but they are still smaller than the gains in energy-efficiency jobs motivated by higher energy prices. Overall, 35 million job years would be created between 2020 and 2050, with net job increases in almost all regions.
    According to the latest data, in 2018 about 9.2 million Americans (5.7 percent of the U.S. workforce of roughly 162 million at the time) were employed in an energy industry. Nearly half of these jobs (about 4.3 million) made up the traditional supply-oriented categories: fuels, including petroleum, natural gas, coal and woody biomass (1.1 million); electric power generation (900,000); and transmission, distribution and storage (2.3 million). The motor-vehicle-related industries employed 2.5 million, and energy efficiency employed 2.4 million.
    The GND would cause traditional supply-oriented jobs to decrease, but energy-efficiency jobs would more than compensate for the losses. New jobs from energy-efficiency investments would be significant, totaling 1.8 million in 2030 and 4.2 million in 2050. These estimates reflect the labor-intensity of jobs in construction, which account for more than half of the energy-efficiency workforce in 2018. Other large gains would be associated with heating, ventilation, air-conditioning and refrigeration systems—the largest share of energy-efficiency investments in the residential and commercial sectors. In industry, the greatest investments estimated would be in energy and environmental management and smart controls, followed by industrial-machinery manufacturing such as that of high-efficiency motors and variable-speed drives. The result would be job growth across all nine Census divisions of the U.S., in all three decades with a $25 carbon tax. The $60 tax would boost job growth in the U.S. overall and across a majority of its nine Census divisions and three decades.