https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyield
Good article in this weeks Barrons. Key take-away is that even with the inflation adjustment, most investors today are likely to lose money owning TIPS. Linked chart begins at 5 years. But apparently even shorter TIPS obligations (1-3 years) carry negative yields.
Anybody ever had their negative interest rate subtracted from a TIPS fund at the end of a month, quarter, year? Seems like that could happen ... I don’t pretend to understand them very well. Am dabbling a bit in TLDTX as a cash proxy and it’s slightly ahead YTD.
*From linked page
“Treasury Real Yield Curve Rates. These rates are commonly referred to as "Real Constant Maturity Treasury" rates, or R-CMTs. Real yields on Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS) at "constant maturity" are interpolated by the U.S. Treasury from Treasury's daily real yield curve. These real market yields are calculated from composites of secondary market quotations obtained by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York ...”

@hank,
thanks for asking, appreciate the question as it makes me think...
I've always had the philosophy that one can hold opposing views concurrently. There is no law stating that you cannot, who says you have to pick a lane. I am inherently conservative, my parents were in Europe during WWII, saw first hand how your life can change on a dime and my Mom never liked the stock market, only CDs and MM's. My Dad was into Growth stocks, so I saw the balance of opposite views in my yute. I believe that most folks manage their monies similar to their parents as well as their eating habits etc.
I myself was an extremely aggressive investor in my early 20's going into my mid 30s then saw the baloney that starting taking place in 03, 04' etc with the housing market and the "this is contained within the real estate market"..I knew with that quote to head for the hills. Had a very minimal drawdown in my portfolio then. Haven't really trusted the markets since and really don't trust it now.
So the point of those stories is that I know I've been way too conservative but on the other hand so far I've generally kept my drawdowns to minimus and have slept fairly well at night. There are no gurantee's in life and anything can happen at any time. My whole philosophy is to limit drawdowns to a what is my own personal level which is mid single digits.
There is a part of me who thinks the markets are an absolute joke and you would be a fool to have a majority of your life savings in them and then the other side who thinks well if the CBs (central banks) are building up their BS'(balance sheets) you'd be a fool not to play along with the subsequent asset inflation.
I do hold a combo of mutual funds as well as a few individual stocks (HD, AWK, MSFT, ACN, TFX...) that I believe strongly in. Again, that is likely a things I picked up from my Dad who did that, he bought WMT stock years ago, yes, it has done well in the past 35 years and my Mom still owns it but had most of his monies in Fid Magellan, Selected American Shares, Growth mutual funds.
On the same hand I do own mutual funds, more $ than monies in indvid stonks.
PMEFX, ARTTX are some of them and lately been getting into FEVAX, no load, First Eagle US Value, likely going to get out of FPFIX, recent posting here made me recognize that I don't want to hold some of the underlying holdings of that fund.
Like most others here state, it kinda works for me, I don't recommend this to anyone else and I am just posting for entertainment value.
Good Luck and Good health to you Hank and all,
Baseball Fan

” I am ~ 75% cash/CD/IBonds. Market just seems to me artificial...too much BS ...”

Hmm .. @Baseball_Fan - A few days ago you sounded downright bullish. From your April 12 post (Thread: “Bond Duration Question”) - “On a side note...just increased my holdings in Home Depot to low six figures..”
Just curious whether you own any mutual funds? Or are you 75% cash/CD/bonds and the remainder directly in stocks?
Not nit-picking. Just trying to get a read on your methods so we all can learn from you.

@dtconroe,
Question for you...how do you know and how do you decide or put another way, when have you decided a black swan was coming and what did you do when you went totally to cash? What are your signals, technical? Wisdom/experience/gut feel?
FWIW and I am not making recommendations to anyone but I am ~ 75% cash/CD/IBonds.
Market just seems to me artificial...too much BS (balance sheet or bull sheet, use the term as you wish) of Central Banks.
Also, what is very worrisome is just talked to my sister this morning who lives in Munich, they are having terrible time with Covid, quasi-lockdown everywhere, virus mutant very bad in England, but here in the large midwest city, restaurants are packed, many not wearing masks, parties going on, "older" folks who have gotten vaccine feel invincible, folks all talking about where they are going to fly to on vacation in a few months...very concerning...but on the other hand, lot of vaccination going on too...who knows?
I just hope that we did not open up too early after Orange Man bad left office and now it is going to all be kumbaya.
Let's hope for all our sakes it all works out for the best.
Good Luck and good health to you and to all,
Baseball Fan

My wife and I maintain a HY Checking account, maintaining a balance in the $10k to $15K range. We also maintain about 10% of our taxable brokerage account in bond oefs, that have a solid history of making more interest/total return than a standard banking account, with a strong downmarket performance history. We can sell those brokerage assets quickly, and transfer them to our HY Checking Account in 2 to 3 days. We usually stay fully invested, except for those Black Swan periods, where we may go totally to cash and wait for good re-entry opportunities.

It's just another lazy piece by someone with column inches to fill.
Do a M* screen for taxable bond funds, AUM >= $100 (million), and 15 year returns >= 7.17% and you get a similar top 20 list. The results aren't identical because the screen is being run a week later, but the results are similar. All 20 funds I find have 15 year performances well above 7%; the ones in the column in the aggregate merely average above 7%.
Most of the funds are indeed HY funds. That's to be expected. A diversified portfolio of HY bonds should have better raw performance than IG portfolios over the long term since risk is theoretically rewarded in the marketplace.
There's another class of funds that one would expect to have performed well anytime in the past 40 years as interest rates declined: long term and/or zero coupon funds. Not only is this not helpful, these funds are likely to be some of the worst performing funds going forward as interest rates rise.
In the article's list are two IG funds with extended durations:WHOSX (hard to get higher grade than Treasuries) and VWETX. Also in the list is American Century's last remaining target date zero coupon bond fund, BTTRX. For most of its life it had a very long duration, due in part to its target date and in part due to holding all zeros.
Other long term IG funds that my top 20 screen turned up include: DEEIX (at 8.55%/year, the best 15 year performance), VBLLX (an index fund despite the article saying all top performing funds were actively managed), and CLDAX.
There's even an EM fund, GMCDX / GMDFX , that outperformed some of the article's funds over the past 15 years.
When all is said and done, the article and my addendums are just mindless and relatively useless screens.

Based on MFO Premium analysis:
1. RPGAX rated higher than DODBX on lower risk over 1, 3, and 5 years period.
2. RPGAX has lower maximum drawdown in March 2020, -15.7% versus -21.0%, than that of DODBX. The recovery period is 7 months versus 11 months in favor of RPGAX.
3. The ulcer index and Martin ratio are higher in RPGAX than those of DODBX.
If you already own a growth-oriented allocation fund such as PRWCX, pairing it with the DODBX would allow you to capture the recent shift to value stocks.
Even DODBX's $15B asset is not small, the firm should able to manage it well. BTW, D&C only managed 6 funds.
If I don't have any balance fund, RPGAX would be a solid choice.

I recently added to RPGAX and don’t own or contemplate buying DODBX, so I am not a neutral observer. I agree with @hank that the “global” label does not make an allocation fund much different from a “domestic” one, although another allocation fund I own, JBALX, owns no international stocks. Not sure about it’s 555 bonds, however.

@crash,
It is the Russian government OFZ bonds that you have to look for. US banks and brokerages will be forbid to buy these bonds, effectively cutting off foreign cash flow. Russian government bonds pay higher yield, over 7%, since they are not investment grade. They also carry considerably sovereign risk: default on debt payment and wars.
Based on the annual reports of several EM local currency bond funds and they have some Russian bonds:
1. Pimco Emerging market local currency bond, PELAX, 7.8%
2. TRP Emerging market local currency bond, PRELX, 8.5%
3. Vanguard Emerging market bond, VEMBX, 2.4%
The non local currency emerging market bond fund, PREMX have 4.38% Russian Foreign Bond - Eurobond.
Eurobond is a bond issued outside the home country of the issuer through an international syndicate and sold to investors residing in various countries. You should be okay for now.

I own both. Good funds. This is purely hypothetical.
If you were going to sell part or all of one to raise portfolio cash, which is the better one to retain going forward (1-3 years)?
- In favor of keeping RPGAX: Has 10% in a Blackstone hedge fund that should protect somewhat in a bear market, has solid conservative management at TRP, probably has had a more level performance record since inception (but didn’t exist in 2008).
- In favor of keeping DODBX: Much lower ER (.53% vs .95%), Is more in-tune with the recent shift towards value, bond portion is managed by the same folks that run their excellent DODIX
MaxFunds is of little help. Forecasts a “worst case” (1 year) loss of 60% for RPGAX and a slightly worse 65% loss for DODBX. On the one-year upside potential, they’re rated identically. However, MaxFunds rates RPGAX much more highly overall. This appears largely based on their assessment that DODBX is bloated.
*Note - I don’t think the “global” vs “domestic” issue is worth fretting over here. DODBX typically holds some foreign stocks - more than one might think.

Unfortunately, the long list of bond funds that johnN posted are apparently all high yield funds. Using the best 15-year returns is not exactly very helpful if you want to have some diversity in the bond funds you select for your portfolio.
Fred

https://investornews.vanguard/5-investing-principles-that-are-built-to-last/
investing principles that are built to last
**Markets are unpredictable and investment fads come and go. Already in 2021, we’ve seen speculative behavior around AMC and Gamestop and overheated trading based on emotions rather than fundamentals. At Vanguard, we believe you can stay on the path to long-term financial success by avoiding trends and focusing on balance, discipline, and diversification.**
Is Jack Brennan Bogle*s long lost brother?

The old deck lumber we removed aged considerably and they hold little value. The climate here is tough on lumber products - hot in summer and wet in winter. The combined swelling and drying out processes require annual coating. Even at best effort the walking surfaces would last the most 5 years. Plastic lumber survives better and there are newer PVC-coated aluminum panels out now.

We resurfaced our deck several years ago with plastic lumber. Given the wet climate in Pacific Northwest wood products do not last. Last time I checked wood decking lumber was more than 40-50% higher than that of a year ago.

Built a new side deck with lumber last summer. I’m thinking if it keeps going up in value I may be able to tear it out and sell the lumber this summer for 50% more than I paid back than. :)
Certainly some “inflation psychology” evident with building products - despite the Fed’s admonition that it’s only “transitory”. What are they smokin?

We resurfaced our deck several years ago with plastic lumber. Given the wet climate in Pacific Northwest wood products do not last. Last time I checked wood decking lumber was more than 40-50% higher than that of a year ago. The pandemic does not help.
Other than T. Rowe Price New Era, PRNEX, I have not invested in other commodity funds/ETFs. PRNEX provides broad exposures to natural resources.
https://troweprice.com/personal-investing/tools/fund-research/PRNEX#content-portfolio
Other investment opportunities??

I will suggest; Cowpiecoin. High pressure molding and shaped properly would insure long term use.

@Catch22. I get the scent in the wind - so to speak. Many in northern Michigan have been grumbling lately about what they perceive as 50% jumps in prices of small “starter homes” (from around $200,000 to $300,000 or more) over the past year or so. Quite a bit of press coverage as well. But are you really suggesting something like this as a solution to skyrocketing materials prices?

“Lumber prices are up more than 35% this year, at $1,180.70 per 1,000 board feet as of April 13, after more than doubling in price in 2020. Also this year, steel futures have jumped 40% and iron ore trades nearly 7% higher. Copper has climbed 15%”
Barron’s April 15, 2021
LINK Link may not work. One trick I’ve learned is to do a web search for the exact words (cut and pasted) from a quoted article.
BTW - Columnist Jack Hough has a fascinating take on this in the same issue of Barron’s, asking “How about a wood-based cryptocurrency?” Suggested name ... Barkcoin
:)

Related
Crypto etf surpassed gld
https://www.kitco.com/news/2021-04-15/GLD-vs-GBTC-Grayscale-Bitcoin-Trust-to-surpass-world-s-largest-commodity-ETF.html
Maybe been buying wrong vehicle the whole time..Maybe add more GBTC

https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/cathie-wood-ark-funds-buy-750000-coinbase-shares-after-ipo-2021-04-15
Maybe good buy DODECOIN ARKK now...unclear if need to keep buying In 2022 or 23

If you’re anti Cathie Wood... feel free to skip this post. Otherwise, there’s a solid discussion of Coinbase and crypto ‘ Bitcoin going from 60K to 500K... around the 5:50 mark https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=SU_YjT6KvT8
And for a special surprise... Reddit users mentioned an odd sound at 8:56 and 13:33<— Worth it. It’s a bit more than standard fee compression.