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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • BONDS AAA, a bit twitchy this past week; Update AUG 28
    Thanks Catch. Based on my few bond holdings, the mid-grade (AA/BBB) corporate stuff a bit out on the curve (5+ years) got whacked a bit due to uptick in rates. Shorter term stuff (1-3 years) seemed to hold up better. Foreign (investment grade) bonds held up better. Perhaps the dollar fell some more. The good news is, as bond prices fall yields usually rise. Leon Cooperman, whom I posted last week, calls bonds today “return free risk.” But as for risk ... it’s more than just bonds IMHO.
  • BONDS AAA, a bit twitchy this past week; Update AUG 28
    Last week's title was:
    bonds found some "lovers" this past week
    This week, well; the "love" is a bit on the edge. A bit twitchy in some sectors, overpriced perhaps; not unlike sectors in equity. Whata-ya-gonna-do ???
    In the "old days" one could have at least a small amount of assurance, that if the equity markets started or were going to hell in a hand basket; that quality bond holdings would likely be a positive ballast for one's portfolio. The machinations of central banks right now is so fully overwhelming in all aspects of capital markets that I find it more difficult with how to deal with the "perversion" of reality markets. This week's "Jackson Hole" conference placed some guidance by Chairman Powell. What you or the "pundits" make of the pronouncements likely finds a large range of where the equity/bond markets travel in the future. The past 3 weeks of data in this thread show the amount of volatility within some bond sectors.
    A few blips below, that may or may not be of value:
    --- EXPLAINER, new Fed policy
    --- Fed can't talk the U.S. economy into inflation
    Lastly, if you remain curious about bonds; you have a defined list of etf's below to help you gauge which areas are having momentum; either positive or negative.
    I'm going HIATUS with further posting.
    I should have previously included performance for AGG, as a gauge, which is now included in the below list.
    The AGG, formerly known as the Bloomberg Barclays Aggregate Bond Index, is an index used by bond traders, mutual funds, and ETFs as a benchmark to measure their relative performance. The index is broadly considered to be the best total market bond index, as it is used by more than 90% of investors in the United States.
    Currently, I glance at data for , but do not track muni's, mortgage or foreign bonds.
    A few data views from bondland, for mostly AAA rated bonds:

    AUGUST 28 WEEK / YTD .....Data M* performance

    --- AGG = -.48% / +6.6% (widely used bond benchmark)
    --- MINT = + .06% / +1.29% (Pimco Enhanced short maturity, AAA-BBB rated)
    --- SHY = + .02% / +2.98% (UST 1-3 yr bills)
    --- IEI = - .07% /+7% (UST 3-7 yr notes/bonds)
    --- IEF = -.61% /+11% (UST 7-10 yr bonds)
    --- TIP = +.29% / +9% (UST Tips, 3-10 yrs duration, some 20+ yr duration)
    --- LTPZ = -.7% / +21.1% (UST, long duration TIPs bonds
    --- TLT = -3.1% /+20.1% (20+ Yr UST Bond
    --- EDV = -4% / +26.3% (UST Vanguard extended duration bonds)
    --- ZROZ = -4.4 /+27.4% (UST., AAA, long duration zero coupon bonds)
    ***Other, for reference, not AAA rated:
    --- HYG = +.5 / -.2% (high yield bonds, proxy ETF)
    --- LQD = -1.1% / +7.3% (corp. bonds, various quality)
    Well, enjoy and be careful.
    Regards,
    Catch
  • IOFIX/IOAFX Distributions
    Here are a couple of earlier Section 19a docs for the fund: March and April. There may be others.
    As @Vegomatic posted in another thread, sometimes these interim classifications of distributions change before getting to the official 1099-DIV.
    That said, I noticed that 97% of IOFIX's securities are floating rate. Years ago, I owned a fund that invested in agency ARMs. Almost a quarter of the distributions I received that year was ROC. There may be something inherent in these securities that creates ROC. Just an observation, I'm not digging into it.
    The ROC shows up on your 1099-DIV in Box 3 (nondividend distributions). This is pretty basic, and not uncommon for closed end fund with managed distributions. So all tax software should handle it.
    There is a quirk with ROC. As noted, this reduces your cost basis. If your cost basis drops to zero, any additional ROC is treated as capital gains.
    https://www.irs.gov/taxtopics/tc404
    If your shares are "covered" Schwab is required to keep track of your cost basis. I believe that it is required to incorporate the effect of return of capital when reporting your cost basis (i.e. it should track this correctly). However, the ultimate responsibility for keeping track is yours, regardless of what Schwab reports.
  • Favorite International Stock Funds

    MikeW: FYI
    My favorite fund is MIOPX which is managed by Kristen Heugh. This is a strong international fund with broad exposure to Europe as well as emerging markets. Ben suggested their global fund which is also excellent. If you run the numbers you'll see that it consistently outperforms all other funds internationally over 3, 5, and 7 years. In a down market it will get hit, but it actually held up well in March this year
    Morgan Stanley Institutional International Opportunity / MIOIX was mentioned in today's Barron's Daily Roundup (aftermarket), viz., "These 7 Funds Beat the Market Without Owning the FAAMG Stocks":
    The $3 billion Morgan Stanley Institutional International Opportunity fund (MIOIX) holds stocks from around the globe, including Chinese education-tech firm TAL Education Group ADR, food-delivery company Meituan Dianping (3690.Hong Kong), and HDFC Bank (HDB) from India.
    Total return YTD through 8/26 = 33.0%
  • Any great spec ideas?
    Thanks @BemWP. Spot on. I’ve got enough other “addictions“ without playing individual stocks and ETFs. A conscious decision made years back to protect me from myself. Every once in a while, however, I’ll spot a mutual fund at one of the houses where I invest that’s off 30, 40, 50% over the past 12 months and I’ll buy a little. Usually plan to hold no longer than 3-6 months. Works most of the time for a quick gain.
    I guess like everybody else, I’m looking for niche plays to add a bit of return in this extremely low interest rate environment. And the macros look compelling with the Fed throwing money at the system and the Administration goosing markets as much as they can for the election. If all that isn’t enough, there’s speculative fever in the air and a tendency to want to jump on the bandwagon!
  • Any great spec ideas?
    I give up! But thanks all for the ideas.
    Looking at the 3-month charts, nearly everything is up anywhere from 5-15% over that short period, even though YTD several funds still lag. Real estate might be OK as a bet, but not sure. Suspect it would pull back along with equities on the next market correction. IMHO better buying opportunities will come along. Not selling anything. Just not ready to speculate. I already have 3 small 1-2% spec plays running: PIEQX, PRLAX and OPGSX.
  • IOFIX/IOAFX Distributions
    I received a “section 19a” document from Alpha Centric via Schwab informing shareholders about the percentage of monthly distributions that is income and that which is return of capital. It seems to me this is the first such notice I have received, but I could have missed something previously. In the event, to date, ROC amounts to 56% of the gross distributions with the remainder as true income. I believe the cost basis of one’s holding in the fund must be reduced by the amount of the ROC. I have no idea if what Schwab reports to the IRS accounts for this, nor do I know if TurboTax can account for this. Apparently, upon sale of the MF, if the ROC is not factored in, the shareholder could be in violation of IRS rules. I did not sell when IOAFX cratered, but I did hear on the board of others bailing out. I hope this is post is not too wonky.
  • Closed-End Funds: 4 Municipal Bond Funds For Your Portfolio
    https://www.google.com/amp/s/seekingalpha.com/amp/article/4371359-closed-end-funds-4-municipal-bond-funds-for-your-portfolio
    Closed-End Funds: 4 Municipal Bond Funds For Your Portfolio
    AMBTT, EIM, EVN
    Summary
    We are taking a look at several of our Taxable Income Portfolio holdings.
    The four funds we are diving into are in the muni space, providing plenty of federally tax-free income.
    The four covered today are investment-grade funds, i.e. not "high yield" munis - this can help more conservative investors
    Tax considerations could be a large factor in term selection and buying more muni tax free incomes... matbe able sleep better at night if you end up selecting safer tax free muni plays
    Hy muni - not so much... we did bought hy muni many yrs ago ( did not know start out as a new rookie) that vehicle bellied up, ended up losing 4k back then...have to be very careful w dull diligence research before jumping in
    imho Probably best buy more muni etf from now on
  • The So-Called 'Buffett Indicator' Hits All-Time High
    Here is an article that discusses factors that may need to be considered to properly interpret this indicator today.

    Why Is The Buffett Indicator Less Meaningful Now?
    The first argument is that the current Buffett Indicator reading includes the very steep GDP drop that occurred during Q2. Almost all analysts forecast that this GDP drop will not be a lasting one and that the US economy will fully recover in the not-too-distant future. The current GDP reading is thus artificially low due to the pandemic impact during the most recent quarter.
    On top of this issue, there are other, more structural and long-term reasons why the Buffett Indicator reading maybe isn't as meaningful as it used to be.
    1.Tax Rates.
    2. More overseas revenues and profits
    3. Changes in the industries that make up the US market capitalization
    4. Interest rates and inflation are lower
    5. Buffett himself seems to have lost confidence in the indicator
    https://seekingalpha.com/article/4371273-buffett-is-genius-investor-is-why-you-should-forget-indicator
  • Favorite International Stock Funds
    Just checked out the holdings of VWIGX, Vanguard INTERNATIONAL Growth Fund. How are Tesla and Amazon considered international equities?
    Because they have massive markets outside the US, and are smart enough to invest in them in the portfolio. It's not a "foreign" fund. International means including US funds.
  • Vanguard Prime Money Market (VMMXX)
    Here's Vanguard's press release (largely duplicative of the above info)
    https://pressroom.vanguard.com/news/Press-Release-Vanguard-Announces-Changes-Money-Market-Fund-Lineup-082720.html
    Over the past two decades, Vanguard’s approach has helped Prime Admiral Shares outperform 97% of the competition. However, Prime Investor Shares have only slightly outperformed Vanguard Federal Money Market Fund over this same time period. This shift in the fund’s portfolio [to US government securities] underscores Vanguard’s belief that government money market funds can better meet investor needs for capital preservation and liquidity while avoiding undue risk.
    Pardon a bit of cynicism here, but it doesn't take two decades to come to this conclusion. Unless something unspoken has changed, like risk. Not necessarily risk to the investor, but to Vanguard. Jane Bryant Quinn wrote in 1990:
    The last year has seen at least two near-misses. Integrated Resources defaulted on commercial paper that was being held by some money funds, and paper owed by Mortgage & Realty Trust was threatened. Among the victims: funds carrying the good names of Value Line, Liquid Green, Alliance and T. Rowe Price.
    In each case, the sponsor stepped in to absorb the loss. But if it hadn`t, the fund`s investors would have come up short.
    https://www.chicagotribune.com/news/ct-xpm-1990-05-21-9002110461-story.html
    The risk in a prime MMF is largely to the fund sponsor - eat the loss or lose face.
    Why doesn't Vanguard simply merge the fund with VMFXX? Prime MMF is going to have a similar portfolio anyway. So even if you stay with the fund, you'll get the lower yield of a government MMF. The ER of VMFXX is just one basis point more than the Admiral shares of Prime. With Prime MMF Admiral shares you lose the ability to write checks; with VMFXX you can still write checks.
  • Vanguard Prime Money Market (VMMXX)
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/106830/000168386320012840/f6773d1.htm
    497 1 f6773d1.htm VANGAURD PRIME MONEY MARKET FUND 497
    Vanguard Prime Money Market Fund
    Supplement Dated August 27, 2020, to the Prospectus and Summary Prospectus Dated December 20, 2019
    Change in Strategy, Name, and Designation
    The board of trustees (the “Board”) of Vanguard Prime Money Market Fund (the “Fund”) has approved changes to the Fund’s investment strategy and name, and a change in the Fund’s designation to a “government” money market fund. These changes will be effective on or about September 29, 2020.
    The Fund is currently designated as a “retail” money market fund. The Fund invests primarily in high-quality, short-term money market instruments, including certificates of deposit, banker’s acceptances, commercial paper, Eurodollar and Yankee obligations, and other money market securities, including securities issued by the U.S. government or its agencies and instrumentalities. The Fund invests more than 25% of its assets in the financial services industry.
    The Board has determined that it is in the best interests of the Fund and its shareholders to change the Fund’s designation to a “government” money market fund. Pursuant to Rule 2a-7 under the Investment Company Act of 1940, a government money market fund is required to invest at least 99.5% of its total assets in cash, U.S. government securities, and/or repurchase agreements that are collateralized solely by U.S. government securities and/or cash (“government securities”).
    Accordingly, effective on or about September 29, 2020, the Fund will invest at least 99.5% of its total assets in government securities and the Fund’s name will change to Vanguard Cash Reserves Federal Money Market Fund. The Fund will continue to invest more than 25% of its assets in the financial services industry (i.e., issuers principally engaged in providing financial services to consumers and industry), which includes securities issued by government-sponsored enterprises, such as the Federal National Mortgage Association (“Fannie Mae”), the Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation (“Freddie Mac”), and the Federal Home Loan Banks. Currently, the Fund has no limit on its ability to invest in government securities, and will continue to increase such investments prior to changing its designation to a government money market fund.
    In addition, in connection with the change in the Fund’s name, the Board also approved the implementation of a policy for the Fund to invest, under normal circumstances, at least 80% of its assets in securities issued by the U.S. government and its agencies and instrumentalities. This policy will become effective concurrent with the other changes to change the Fund’s designation to a government money market fund.
    Lower Investment Minimum
    The Board has also approved lowering the investment minimum for AdmiralTM Shares of the Fund to $3,000, effective immediately. Investors may convert their Investor Shares to Admiral Shares at any time by accessing their account at vanguard.com or by contacting Vanguard.
    It is anticipated that all of the outstanding Investor Shares of the Fund will be automatically converted to Admiral Shares beginning in the fall of 2020 and continuing through 2021. Once all investors have been converted from Investor Shares to Admiral Shares, the Fund’s Investor Share class will be eliminated.
    The Fund’s registration statement will be updated on or about September 29, 2020, to reflect these changes.
    © 2020 The Vanguard Group, Inc. All rights reserved.
    or
    https://investornews.vanguard/changes-to-our-taxable-money-market-fund-lineup/
  • Leon Cooperman - Fed Created Speculative Bubble / Bloomberg Interview
    @Derf, the 5% stop is from the ETFs high. If it continues to go up another 20% before seeing a 5% drop from it's high I theoretically keep the gain.
    I say theoretically because there is a risky caveat to a stop order. If for some reason the market opens with a huge drop, the sell order may not take instant affect at 5%. It could kick in much less at the market opening price. If that opening market drop moves back up in the same quick fashion for some reason, you got whip-sawed. Think of when the flash crash occurred. That was disastrous for many institutions that use algorithms to automatically sell.
    I wouldn't play this with a huge chunk of holdings because of the risk mentioned. I have used it on individual stocks for a while and just recently on using it on QQQ.
  • Virtus Rampart Equity Trend Fund to change name
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1005020/000110465920099646/tm2029720d1_497e.htm
    97 1 tm2029720d1_497e.htm VIRTUS RAMPART EQUITY TREND FUND
    VIRTUS OPPORTUNITIES TRUST
    Virtus Rampart Equity Trend Fund
    101 Munson Street
    Greenfield, MA 01301
    (800) 243-1574
    IMPORTANT NOTICE REGARDING CHANGES TO THE FUND’S SUBADVISER, NAME, PRINCIPAL INVESTMENT STRATEGIES AND PRINCIPAL RISKS
    August 27, 2020
    Dear Shareholder:
    I am writing to inform you of important changes to the subadviser, name, principal investment strategies, and principal risks for the Virtus Rampart Equity Trend Fund, to be renamed the Virtus FORT Trend Fund (the “Fund”).
    As previously communicated, on June 17, 2020, the Board of Trustees of Virtus Opportunities Trust approved the replacement of the Fund’s current subadviser, Rampart Investment Management, LLC, with FORT Investment Management LP (“FORT”), and in connection therewith, a change to the Fund’s name, principal investment strategies and principal risks, in order to address concerns that the Fund’s current strategy was not performing as expected due to changes in the way the market operates since the current investment strategies and the quantitative model on which they were based were established. The Board’s approval was based upon the recommendation of Virtus Investment Advisers, Inc. (the “Adviser”), the investment adviser to the Fund. The changes to the Fund were disclosed in a supplement to the Fund’s prospectus dated June 18, 2020, and are anticipated to take effect on or about August 31, 2020 (“Effective Date”).
    In summary, the Fund will continue to seek long-term capital appreciation. Consistent with this objective, as of the Effective Date, the Fund’s investment program will consist of two elements: (i) an actively managed portfolio of a broad spectrum of worldwide financial and non-financial futures contracts, which may include, but are not limited to, contracts on short-term interest rates, bonds, currencies, stock indices, energy, metals and agricultural commodities; and (ii) a portfolio of cash equivalents, U.S. government securities (including money market funds that invest solely in U.S. government securities) and other short-term, high grade debt instruments. The Fund expects to seek to gain its exposure to the futures contracts described in this section by investing up to 25% of its total assets in a wholly-owned subsidiary of the fund (the “Subsidiary”) organized as a company under the laws of the Cayman Islands. The Fund may also engage in short sales of any instrument that it is permitted to purchase for investment, and may invest without restriction as to country, currency, or underlying asset type. As of the Effective Date, the Fund will therefore maintain the potential for a significant allocation to cash or cash equivalents and high-quality short-term securities but, unlike before, the Fund will hold interests in derivatives and commodities rather than equity securities.
    In connection with the new strategy, as of the Effective Date, the Fund will no longer be subject to Equity Securities Risk and Sector Focused Investing Risk as principal risks, and it will be subject to the following new principal risks..:
  • Perpetual Buy/Sell/Why Thread

    A little while. It's only a year-ish old ... but as I said, it's the initial chunk, so if it drops, that's fine by me for DCA'ing. I suspect I'll be buying other stuff at 52wh's and averaging down on them for long term positions as well going into year end, but I need to start putting more cash to work!
    @rforno: I see IVOL at 52 week high. How long have you had your eye on this ETF ?
    Stay Safe, Derf
  • Perpetual Buy/Sell/Why Thread
    @rforno: I see IVOL at 52 week high. How long have you had your eye on this ETF ?
    Stay Safe, Derf
  • Leon Cooperman - Fed Created Speculative Bubble / Bloomberg Interview
    A question for you, @MikeM. Does that stop loss work as a rolling lose !! In other words you said you were up 8% & if the market would crash tomorrow you'd still be up 3% . Or does the stop work only when you hit your staring amount minus the 5% ?
    Thanks for your time, Derf
  • Walmart Joins Microsoft in Bid to Buy TicTok
    “Walmart has teamed up with Microsoft in a bid to buy TikTok in one of the most unexpected twists in the saga of the hugely popular short-form video app.“
    https://www.npr.org/2020/08/27/906690522/walmart-joins-microsoft-in-a-bid-to-buy-tiktok
    Very interesting.
  • Perpetual Buy/Sell/Why Thread

    Picked up first chunk of IVOL at $27.50. Yes, it's FI, but it's an interesting little nugget, imho.