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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Why Index Funds are Nuts
    Interesting story. If you invest in the S&P 500 Index (I do) - then over 25% of your money in that fund is on 6 companies: Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, Facebook and wait for it... Tesla.
    If you invest in the Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund... it's 19%.
    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-index-funds-are-nuts-11618425937
  • Best No Load and NTF Funds Available at Fidelity

    As a retired and somewhat conservative investor, I am also "mixing and matching to have a consistent performance over time" by using the following funds in my portfolio which M* classifies as "Low" or "Below Average" risk:
    ARBIX, NVHAX, VWINX, JHQAX, RCTIX, and TSIIX
    Good luck,
    Fred
    Hi @fred495, Mac from old M* days here. I've been following RCTIX for a while and am just about at the point of putting some $ in it. I'm curious what you think of the asset mix, the volatility, the day-to-day performance (fairly steady or not?) etc.
    It looks reasonable to me from the outside, another good mostly securitized credit option, but it'd be good to hear your perspective. How has it met (or not) your expectations?
    Thanks, AJ
  • Morgan Stanley Inception Portfolio fund already closed to new investors
    Sorry if this is a repeat. I don't remember posting/seeing this filing.
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/836487/000110465921032581/a21-8652_3497.htm
    497 1 a21-8652_3497.htm 497
    Prospectus and Summary
    Prospectus Supplement
    March 5, 2021
    Morgan Stanley Institutional Fund, Inc.
    Supplement dated March 5, 2021 to the Morgan Stanley Institutional Fund, Inc. Prospectus and Summary Prospectus dated April 30, 2020
    Inception Portfolio (the "Fund")
    Effective at the close of business on April 5, 2021, the Fund will suspend offering Class I, Class A, Class C and Class IS shares of the Fund to new investors, except as follows. The Fund will continue to offer Class I, Class A, Class C and Class IS shares of the Fund:
    (1) through certain retirement plan accounts,
    (2) to clients of certain registered investment advisers who currently offer shares of the Fund in their asset allocation programs,
    (3) to directors and trustees of the Morgan Stanley Funds,
    (4) to Morgan Stanley affiliates and their employees,
    (5) to benefit plans sponsored by Morgan Stanley and its affiliates and
    (6) omnibus accounts sponsored or serviced by a financial intermediary that currently hold shares of the Fund in such accounts.
    Retirement plan accounts (including new retirement plan accounts) investing through platforms that trade omnibus by plan for Fund shares as of April 5, 2021, fall under the exception for "certain retirement plan accounts" set forth above.
    Existing omnibus accounts (accounts offered on platforms that aggregate all underlying client-level transactions into one account) that are shareholders of record are considered one type of existing shareholder. Therefore, shares of the Fund will continue to be offered to underlying clients (including new clients) through such existing omnibus accounts.
    The Fund will continue to offer Class I, Class A, Class C and Class IS shares of the Fund to existing shareholders. In addition, the Adviser, in its discretion, may make certain exceptions to the suspended offering of Class I, Class A, Class C and Class IS shares of the Fund.
    The Fund may recommence offering Class I, Class A, Class C and Class IS shares of the Fund to new investors in the future. Any such offerings of the Fund's Class I, Class A, Class C and Class IS shares may be limited in amount and may commence and terminate without any prior notice.
    The Fund has suspended offering Class L shares to all investors. Class L shareholders of the Fund do not have the option of purchasing additional Class L shares. However, existing Class L shareholders may invest in additional Class L shares through reinvestment of dividends and distributions.
    Please retain this supplement for future reference.
    IFIINCEPTPROSPSPT 3/21
  • Best No Load and NTF Funds Available at Fidelity
    @hank : PRSIX appears to be holding close to 13.5 % cash at this time. Is this a (normal) % for cash or are they building some dry powder ?
    Just wondering , Derf
    @Derf - It may be a bit of an illusion. Lipper puts the stock holdings today at 40%, which is the fund’s target equity allocation. More likely, the cash buildup represents a retrenchment from bonds into cash / shorter duration securities. No doubt, however, they’ve also moved away from equities to a lesser extent (from a slightly overweight position).
    Here’s what I’ve been able to dig up .....
    From T. Rowe’s website on (April 14) https://www.troweprice.com/personal-investing/tools/fund-research/PRSIX / Click on “Portfolio” option at top.

    Domestic Bond 26.90%
    Domestic Stock 26.40%
    Foreign Bonds 16.10%
    Foreign Stock 13.40%
    Cash 10.80%
    Other 5.80%
    Convertibles 0.50%
    Preferred Stock 0.10%

    Here’s the fund’s Semi-Annual Report from November 2020. Reserves are listed at 10%. Contains a foot-note stating that reserves include the “cash underlying futures positions such as the Russell 2000 futures” https://www.troweprice.com/literature/public/country/us/language/en/literature-type/semi-annual-report/sub-type/mf?productCode=PSI¤cy
    Here’s its published March 31, 2021 update . https://www.troweprice.com/literature/public/country/us/language/en/literature-type/portfolio-update/sub-type/portfolio-update?productCode=PSI¤cy=USD
    Curiously, above March update puts “cash benchmarked” at 23%. Some of the 23% reflects cash underlying futures positions . I’d take that 23% number with a large grain of salt. Especially since It appears the linked March 31 report was intended for professionals and not ndividual investors. Stated cash gets “funky” sometimes when funds engage in derivatives, short sales, futures trading, etc. (all a bit beyond my comprehension).
    Lipper puts cash now at 14%. And M* has it at 13.5%. T. Rowe’s own investor website lists cash as 10.8%.
    Note: Money managers and individuals generally have shifted from longer duration bonds into shorter duration bonds, and cash / cash alternatives over the past 3 months. So the cash build for PRSIX likely reflects a similar move by PRSIX’s managers.
    *** I’m still puzzled by that high “benchmarked cash”. Wondering if it might reference the cash held by the fund’s benchmark index)? I can’t imagine one of their conservative allocation funds getting that high. TRRIX, by comparison, has virtually no cash, preferring to use intermediate / short duration TIPS in that spot.
  • Best No Load and NTF Funds Available at Fidelity
    @hank : PRSIX appears to be holding close to 13.5 % cash at this time. Is this a (normal) % for cash or are they building some dry powder ?
    Just wondering , Derf
  • Best No Load and NTF Funds Available at Fidelity
    DODLX and DODBX are both available, although, like Vanguard funds, Fidelity spitefully charges a $75 transaction fee. Vanguard only charges a $20 tf for purchases of Fidelity and Dodge & Cox funds.
  • A Bitcoin / Cryptocurrency thread & Experiment
    I hate to say it ... but I think crypto acceptance is accelerating for many reasons. My little experiment is up 25% since my first post here. My regret is that I didn’t take it seriously earlier. I’ve dismissed it for years.
    A nice primer for new investors in crypto: https://www.marketwatch.com/video/what-you-need-to-know-before-investing-in-crypto/EB6C438A-53F5-4A2F-8055-58D5644CD587.html
  • Best No Load and NTF Funds Available at Fidelity
    @fred495 ...
    PRSIX is where I’d like to be someday when I’m too old to know which end is up - or much less care. One of T. Rowe’s strengths is their intelligent macro-reads and ability to steer funds like that in the right direction. Of course, they have a lot of good funds to start with. (Currently, I’m only 7-8% allocated to it.)
    My take (a bit overstated) on TMSRX: a Rube Goldberg concoction, consisting of 5 different managers each pulling in a slightly different direction with the expectation that at least 1 or 2 of them will get it right at any particular time. Because it can short stocks or bonds, expenses run high. Difficult trick to pull off. They’ve done a great job keeping it above water. It’s nice to own because it will dampen down your overall volatility by moving differently than the stock / bond markets quite frequently. Don’t expect to make a lot with it. (It’s about 18% of my holdings.)
    Of the two I mentioned, TMSRX is probably “less risky” in that it shouldn’t fall as far in a bad market. But PRSIX is pretty tame and should generate at least a couple more percentage points on the upside over 5-10 year stretches.
    BTW - A very close fund to PRSIX is TRRIX. My take is that the former is slightly more aggressively positioned.
  • Best No Load and NTF Funds Available at Fidelity
    Just for the h*** of it, last night I sorted my 16 funds from “best” to “worst.” Very unscientific. No particular criteria other than my perception of potential risk / reward - much gained looking at Yahoo’s excellent historical data. I think that for the 10 minutes or less it took, it’s a useful endeavor. (#3 and #5 probably aren’t available thru Fidelity.)
    1. PRWCX
    2. PRSIX
    3. DODBX
    4. PRPFX
    5. DODLX
    (I realize #4 is a contentious pick and have no desire to argue my case)
    At the bottom of the heap were cash equivalent / short term bond funds like TRBUX and TSDLX. It’s hard to justify paying an ER for their minuscule return.
    Sorry - Just remembered PRWCX isn’t available - period - unless you already own it.
    RPGAX came in #6 on the list. I think over time it will outperform. But the internationals haven’t kept pace with domestic. I doubt the hedge fund exposure to date has added little more than an extra layer of fees. Things do and will change.
  • Best No Load and NTF Funds Available at Fidelity
    Thanks @fred495. I own ARBIX, VWIAX,FMSDX, and will check out NVHAX, JHQAX, RCTIX, and TSIIX.
  • Best No Load and NTF Funds Available at Fidelity
    @Fred TMSRX's have been low, but maximum draw down was only 4.7% during the past three years. One year return is 18% and three year return is 5.4%. Their goal, if I remember correctly, is to make 6% plus the rate of inflation over time.
    For me, TMSRX fits in as a low risk fund that will not lose much and will make decent returns. It fits in between bonds and stocks. Below are the funds that I am researching now. During changes in market conditions they do better or worse. I look at mixing and matching to have a consistent performance over time.
    CRAAX, TMSRX, FMSDX, CTFAX, ETIMX, GAVIX, MNBAX, RBBAX, VWIAX, VTINX
  • There Will Be Growth in the Spring (Investment Humor)
    I used to spend Saturday morning reading Barron's and it was filled with lots of information. $12.50 per month is a reasonable for digital subscription. Will check again if I can get it on my iPad. I also subscribe to Apple News Plus for $10 per month and I get assess to many news publications. Some includes Barron's and Bloomberg, only give a few articles. I like to support many worthy news such as NPR.
  • There Will Be Growth in the Spring (Investment Humor)
    Thanks for comment @Sven.
    Sounds like some here manage portfolios exceeding 1-2 M. And I’d hazard a guess the vast majority are well into 6 figures. When managing that amount of $$, one need glean only a relatively small amount of market insight from a $10-$15 monthly subscription (to Barron’s or other publication) to make a meaningful difference in portfolio value over a year’s time frame.
    *Amazon’s Barron’s Kindle Edition = $12.50 monthly.
  • 2020-21 Capital Gains estimates
    FSRPX and FSMEX paid capital gains 4/9/21. I did finally see it posted on Fidelity's website. I'll check out M* thanks @DaveSch...good stuff...that worked:
    image
  • Q&A - Bucket Strategies in Retirement
    @msf said,
    You don't want more money in the HSAs than you can withdraw tax-free (not enough medical expenses). Keep the faster growing assets in the genuine Roth IRAs.
    An HSA can be inherited by a spouse...maybe the term is rolled into a spouse's HSA when a spouse is the benficiary of an HSA. So maybe having a little extra for that purpose makes sense. Otherwise, an HSA used for non-medical purposes (after age 65), is treated much like a deferred IRA with no RMDs.
  • Q&A - Bucket Strategies in Retirement
    I found this very interesting and worth sharing.
    ...
    https://theretirementmanifesto.com/your-bucket-strategy-questions-answered/
    A good, common sense piece with a bit of substance to it. A few items there worth highlighting:
    - Asset allocation. Rather than work with fixed percentages, the allocation is done by time: so many years in cash, so many years in bonds, and the remainder in equities. In his case, he came up with 63% (not 60%) in equities. He's actually got a pretty conservative cash (3 year) / bond (8 year) allocation. The cash/bond allocation lets you invest the remainder (however much that is) in equities without worrying about sequence of return risk, volatility "risk", etc.
    - Annuities. He avoids the question of what bucket this income stream (or pensions, or SS) falls into. If one were targeting a particular asset allocation, then this question would matter. But because he's basing cash and bond allocations on how much extra income he needs, this question never arises.
    He touches on annuity strategies, which seems beyond the scope of bucket strategies. But since he went there, it's worth reiterating that for many people, using retirement assets to defer SS until age 70 is the optimal strategy.
    In a new paper summarized here, 401(k) assets would be used to automatically provide an income stream until age 70. A temporary life annuity can provide the same income stream while enhancing value with mortality credits. (The downside is that if you die before age 70, you don't get the full value of the temporary annuity.)
    https://www.kitces.com/blog/understanding-the-role-of-mortality-credits-why-immediate-annuities-beat-bond-ladders-for-retirement-income/
    - HSAs. He keeps his in cash, presumably to spend as expenses are incurred. For investing, he recommends bucket 3 (equities). My take is different - I suggest bucket 2.
    HSAs are like Roth IRAs - withdrawals are tax-free - so long as one can pair them with past medical expenses. I would put my slower growing Roth-ish assets into HSAs to limit the risk that the HSAs grow too fast. You don't want more money in the HSAs than you can withdraw tax-free (not enough medical expenses). Keep the faster growing assets in the genuine Roth IRAs.
  • 2020-21 Capital Gains estimates
    It's a bit early for the 2021 postings, but CHTTX posted huge gains on 3/25 of what pretty much sums up as a split.
  • HMEZX - Highland Capital Management Still in Bankruptcy Protection?
    FYI and FWIW, below are excerpts from a somewhat confusing, at least to me, recent M* Quantitative Analysis Report.
    On the one hand, M* claims that HMEZX has "a weak portfolio-management team" but, on the other hand, it also states that a "sign of strength at Highland is its management team, which boasts an average asset-weighted tenure of 15 years at the firm. This accumulation of experience builds confidence that the group can navigate a variety of market environments adeptly." Which is it? What am I missing?
    "NexPoint Merger Arbitrage Z earns a Morningstar Quantitative Rating of Negative because of negative contributors including a weak portfolio-management team and a questionable investment process. [...]
    Despite the portfolio managers with industry-standard experience and its longest-tenured manager's experience, the team managing NexPoint Merger Arbitrage Fund has a considerable number of weaknesses, warranting a Low People Pillar rating. The team is led by James D. Dondero, the longest-tenured manager on the strategy, who brings 23 years of industry experience. They’re also the named manager on eight additional funds, a total of $1.30 billion in assets. The funds have an average Morningstar Rating of 2.3 stars, demonstrating disappointing risk-adjusted performance. The team is small, but adequately equipped, with only two other supporting managers. Together, the three boast an average of nine years in the industry. [...]
    Highland has a way to go to become an industry-standard steward, resulting in a Low Parent Pillar rating. Highland products are costlier than similarly distributed funds at other highly-rated asset managers, on average in the second most expensive quintile of category peers. The higher expense profile contributes negatively to the firm's overall stewardship rating and creates a larger performance hurdle. The firm has not had a durable fund lineup. Specifically, its five-year risk-adjusted success ratio demonstrates that only 21% of products both survived and beat their respective category average on a risk-adjusted basis,. A low success ratio not only indicates poor performance but also raises flags about a firm’s discipline around investment strategy and product development. A sign of strength at Highland is its management team, which boasts an average asset-weighted tenure of 15 years at the firm. This accumulation of experience builds confidence that the group can navigate a variety of market environments adeptly.
    Mar 22, 2021"

  • Why investing in fossil fuel so tricky

    Ny times article
    Incognito search
    https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nytimes.com/2021/04/09/business/investing-oil-gas-fossil.amp.html
    Why Investing in Fossil Fuels Is So Tricky
    ***Demand for oil and gas is rising, yet it is expected to decline in the future as the world responds to global warming. Where does that leave investors?
    An oil pump in Loco Hills, New Mexico, in the Permian Basin, which also stretches into Texas. While energy prices have been rising lately, climate change may contribute to a reduction of long-term demand for oil.
    An oil pump in Loco Hills, New Mexico, in the Permian Basin, which also stretches into Texas. While energy prices have been rising lately, climate change may contribute to a reduction of long-term demand for oil.Credit...Joel Angel Juarez for The New York Times
    By Mark A. Stein
    As concerns about climate change push the world economy toward a lower-carbon future, investing in oil may seem a risky bet. For the long term, that may be true.
    Yet for the moment, at least, oil and gas prices appear likely to continue to rise as the economy recovers from the pandemic-driven shutdown of millions of businesses, big and small.
    These countervailing trends — increasing demand now and falling demand at some point, perhaps in the not-too-distant future — create a dilemma for investors.
    The good news is that an array of traditional mutual funds and exchange-traded funds are available to help them navigate these uncertain waters. Some funds focus on slices of the industry, such as extracting crude oil and gas from the ground or delivering refined products to consumers. Others focus on so-called integrated companies that do it all. Some spice their holdings with some exposure to wind, solar or other alternative energy sources.
    While the range of options may seem intimidating at first glance, the variety is an advantage for investors because it offers many ways to diversify energy investments in the U.S. market, which is dominated by two integrated titans, Exxon Mobil and Chevron.
    Still, investing in the oil and gas industry is not for everyone, especially these days. Some people object to putting money into the fossil fuel industry. Even if that isn’t an issue for you, energy has historically been a volatile industry, with astounding booms and devastating busts. Through March, the S&P Composite 1500 Energy Index rose 72 percent since the end of October, a period during which the Food and Drug Administration approved the first Covid-19 vaccine and President Biden’s election raised expectations of additional economic stimulus.***
    Could be few yrs upward according to author