https://www.google.com/amp/s/seekingalpha.com/amp/article/4371007-gld-next-buying-opportunity-in-6-weeks-time
GLD: Next Buying Opportunity In About 6 Weeks' Time
Aug. 26, 2020 10:35 PMSPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD)
Summary
Gold is trying to confirm its daily cycle low.
We are on week 24 of the intermediate cycle.
The momentum of the yearly cycle and 8-year cycle should mean we have a couple of years left in this bull market.
We did added more gold recently [both physicals gold silvers also from AMPEX.COM and GLD]. think could be more gas left in the tank especially Feds keep pumping more money and central banks around the world keep borrowing to keep their economies afloat.

Checking up on a famous indicator.......

The metric earned its nickname after Buffett once said it's “the best single measure of where valuations stand at any given moment.” The Buffett indicator is calculated by dividing the total value of all stocks in the U.S. market and by the gross domestic product of the U.S. Traders typically use the Wilshire 5000 Total Market Index as a measure of total U.S. market cap.
Historically, the Buffett indicator average has been between 93% and 114%. The ratio peaked at 107.5% at the peak of the housing bubble in 2007 and at 139.5% during the dot-com bubble in 2000. In 2020, the Buffett indicator has spiked to new all-time highs of 182.7%, and it continues to climb higher with each new stock market high.
Benzinga’s Take: Even if the stock market is overvalued, it doesn’t mean a sell-off is imminent. However, it does mean that investors should keep that stretched valuation in mind when assessing risk and balancing a portfolio accordingly.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/called-buffett-indicator-hits-time-211520943.html

I am in the same boat, although just retired so very wary about starting retirement with a 30% loss if things go south. I am widely diversified but have only about 20 to 25% in equities; mostly cash.
It will not take much inflation to crater all but the shortest bond funds, and there is very little difference in the yield as duration goes up. That would imply shorting junk bonds which you can do with ETFs
The dollar has dropped significantly so will probably rebound soon but unless the US gets it's house in order I think it will continue down, making the case for some Gold and Commodities.
I think some EM are doing far better than we are with Covid, but their economies are so linked to ours you need to know more than I do to pick winners. China clearly seems to have controlled Covid but I do not trust their accounting and think there still may be real danger of a major debt induced crash there.
Much of the current reports out of major brokerages recommend hedges and puts, strategies which I have yet to figure out but there are ETFs that have done a pretty good job with them like TAIL
You could also play the Covid recovery with JETS and other ETFs or funds loaded with aerospace, cruise lines restaurants and hotels. Eventually things will get back to normal and there will be a huge pop when there is a successful vaccine announcement although it will be years before it controls covid,, I think

Thanks. Yes. Hard to sit when you enjoy the game plus have some dry powder to play around with. My metrics are obviously the reverse of momentum investing. For short-intermediate term spec, I look for things that have done very poorly for several years and have really flopped the past 12 months. But which “under the hood” appear solid longer term investments. Scanned Price’s historical performance yesterday and found I already hold the “best of the worst.” Those are PRLAX and PRNEX - both have begun to come alive but still deeply submerged.
Not talking about core investments, just play money. I’m forever influenced by Bogle’s “reversion to the mean” and also a comment by Sir John Templeton about 30 years ago that “very rarely’” does a market go down more than 50% from its high and stay there for long. However, that’s a rule of thumb - not a fact. Japan has disproven him to some extent. Very narrow markets like gold and silver have also had no problem diving more than 50% from peak in the past. And than, there was the “tech wreck” around 2000.
On the shopping list are some EM equity and bond markets, formerly fine international funds like DODFX, and real estate funds. None appear badly enough beaten up at this point to dive in. My cash is at a relatively low 10%. Everything else is in some type of more aggressive investment, be it income producing, commodity related or diversified equity. Part of me wants to lower exposure to balanced funds and increase more “pure” equity due to the present “return-free“ nature of most investment grade bonds. But, that might be akin to jumping from the pot into the fire.
Thanks for your input.

Hi @hank,
I have been pondering much the same as you and have been looking for an opportunity to parlay a little cash that I made from previous spiffs. In addition, my portfolio generates a good cash flow and it looks as though I'm going to add to my commodity strategy fund BCSAX along with some going into a global asset allocaton fund (GAOAX) as well. As the economy improves the need for commodities should follow with increase in their demand. In addition, with the declining US Dollar this makes some foreign equities attractive plus they are not nearly expensive as the domestics. My commodity strategy fund holds a good amount of foreign securities along with some miners and metals. Plus, this fund should due well with inflation. GAOAX will spread the money across many asset classes, both domestic and foreign, with some going to both bonds and stocks.
If you are wanting to follow momentum, for the past rolling 90 days my three best performing funds have all come from the growth area of my portfolio with returns of better than twenty percent. They are SPECX +25% (Large Cap Growth) ... ANWPX +22% (Global Growth) ... and, NEWFX +20% (Emerging Markets).
However, for a spiff (special investment position) it looks as though I will just have to sit and await the next stock market pull back or a good size dip before engaging. Plus I will need to see a reading, on my barometer, in the high 150's to low 160's before putting one in play.
I will admit ... it hard to just sit. But, that is were I am as I am pretty much fully invested within the confines of my asset allocation. If I were to keep buying equities, at these elevated price levels, then I'd have no room for a spiff when that door opens. So, for now, I sit.
In addition, if equities continue their upward pace it will not be long before I have to rebalance and trim my equity allocation for the third time since the rebound.

https://www.morningstar.com/articles/993687/the-best-foreign-stock-funds
https://www.morningstar.com/articles/962395/best-of-breed-international-equity-funds
Both articles consider active and passive funds.

@MikeM: Are you playing prevent defense ? What happens when the QB is sacked & the ball comes lose & the defense picks it up & returns it for 6 TD !!
In other words everything doesn't go up after a purchase. So the worst outcome would be a loss of 5% . I see no profit when that happens.
FWIW, Derf

@davidrmoran, if you are tentative about owning equity "funds", waiting for that inevitable drop, how about the idea of holding equity ETF's with a trailing stop order? I did this about a month ago with QQQ. I bought a chunk with a 5% stop-sell order. If we get a sudden drop the sell order will kick in and I will keep the profits, and then have time to reassess later. In the back of my mind I'm wondering if this is the way to go with most of what I hold in mutual funds now.

For the most part, I agree with you. If I liked the funds run by each management company, I might purchase 2-3 of them, perhaps because I couldn't decide, perhaps because I wanted to diversify management risk. Either way, I'd get the same result as Vanguard is getting, except I'd be paying more.
This is why I find VWIGX so intriguing. SCIEX (Schroder) and BGESX (Baillie Gifford) keep popping up on my radar.
But ... the scenario you described, or something like it, is how VINEX came to be. In early 2002, Schroder International Smaller Companies Fund SSCIX had an enviable long term record, though it had underperformed its benchmark in the previous one year.
Fund vs. Benchmark: (1 year) -22.52% vs. -16.38%; (5 yr) 9.19% vs. -1.31%; (10 yr) 8.73% vs. -1.41%
Schroder Funds 2002 Prospectus
This "international small-cap fund with an excellent performance record but limited assets" (around $26M) agreed to be acquired by Vanguard and to become VINEX. Schroder would remain the sole manager. Vanguard agreed the new fund would pay management fees of 0.66%. Along with "other expenses" of 0.09%, it projected the total ER of the new fund to be 0.75%. Under Schroder, the fund's stated management fees alone were 1.10%.
Since Schroder was turning over the whole fund to Vanguard, it would not be cannibalizing a competing fund it ran. In addition, because Schroder had been waiving 0.69% in fees and/or expenses in its fund, Schroder may have anticipated little if any decline in the actual rate of fees it would collect, net, under Vanguard. But even if wound up receiving a lower rate, it had so much to gain with Vanguard's marketing behind it, that what it lost in price it would more than made up in volume.

Given the competitive nature of the mutual fund industry, Schroders determined that it would be prudent to enter into an arrangement with Vanguard. Joining The Vanguard Group should enable the Schroder Fund (as reorganized into the Vanguard Fund) to grow assets due to Vanguard's strong market penetration and reputation as a low-cost provider. Schroders expects (but cannot guarantee) that assets in the reorganized Schroder Fund will grow considerably once it joins The Vanguard Group as the result of investments by new shareholders, which would result in a larger, more stable asset base for the reorganized Schroder Fund. As a result, expenses would be shared by a larger group of shareholders and expenses for existing shareholders may be reduced.

Vanguard 497 filing

David,
Are you advocating MMT? I don’t think the country should have a balanced budget but if interest rates rise, servicing the debt will take a bigger and bigger slice of the pie. I know you’ll say we are paying ourselves - but that doesn’t include foreign held Treasuries. Additionally, servicing the debt is just another transfer scheme. Taxpayers pay in, bondholders take out - the 2 groups probably overlap, but they are not one in the same.
Consider the following:
National debt as a share of the economy will reach a record next year, reaching 108% of gross domestic product — more than the 106% milestone we hit just after World War II. As things stand right now, debt will hit 121% GDP by 2030 and a staggering 220% of GDP by 2050. Deficits of this size will take years to rein in, so the sooner we start thinking about how to change the trajectory of our budget, the better.

@Rbrt ---
There probably are points where the debt/gdp ratio tips and alone all by itself there is really bad outcome from it, but I have not read that anyone knows where those tipping point ranges even are. As you probably have read, the WW2 deficit was never 'reined in'.
The key key key point is what the borrowing is spent on, investment and disaster relief and so on, improvements, or on services cuts and transfers to the already rich and corporations.

It hasn't particularly been on my radar, but has shown up atop several screens lately. Five-star but not a Great Owl. Sort of a mid-cap balanced fund (65% equity) with near-equity returns. 11.3% annually since inception with SD and DSD about 1% below a pure stock portfolio and a percent or two above a balanced portfolio. About 50% tech right now.
I was wondering if any of the folks on the board had experience with the fund or managers, Fred Martin and Rob Nicoski?
Curious as ever,
David

DODFX off 13.37% this year. Lipper ranks it at the bottom (1/5) in total return, capital preservation, tax efficiency and consistency . (But 5 in expenses ). M* gives it a 3. I know some smart people that own and like it. All I can make out is that it’s 30% invested in financials. That’s even more than for DODGX. I’d probably take a spec on it, but only after a bigger pullback.
And check out TCELX - 9 months old. Up nearly 40% YTD. (Did we call that one right last December?)

Hi, guys.
For what interest it holds, Palm Valley Capital is now available through TD Ameritrade. I assume that it will be added to the Schwab list soon, given the acquisition of TD by Schwab. The advisor is still working on Fidelity.
$11.7 million, with modest but steady inflows. 1.27% e.r. The managers have between $100-500,000 in, each, plus their stake in the adviser.
72% cash and up 15% YTD, 16.4% over the TTM. Depending on whether you consider it small value or small core, it's beating its peers by 25 - 30% YTD. It has the second highest returns YTD for either group.
Small core is led by Aperture Discovery Equity (ADISX), a fund with a record of less than a year which is advised by the US branch of a fairly large UK adviser. It's a long/short small cap fund that reportedly it booked a 60% gain in Q2. High expenses, negligible investment minimum with a manager from the private investment world; most recently, Diker Investments LLC, a small- and micro-cap specialist.
Small value is led by NorthStar Micro Cap (NSMVX), a hedge fund that converted about 10 years ago. We profiled their dividend fund last year. Neither Aperture nor North Star holds much cash.
I'll move some of my TD cash into Palm Valley today. I know that Mr. Cinnamond's discipline will disappoint then infuriate investors after small caps have had an extended run and are getting, by his lights, frothy, but I'm not sure that's an immediate concern.
For what interest that holds,
David

Imagine you're a money manager of an international small-cap fund with an excellent performance record but limited assets. Suddenly, Vanguard comes knocking on your door and says would you like to subadvise one of our funds and receive billions more in assets? The only problem is Vanguard will pay you a base management fee of 0.40% to run the fund, which with administrative costs, will run to a total expense ratio of 0.50% if the fund matches its benchmark. (If the fund lags, you'll receive even less than your 0.40%.) Now imagine that your current fund has a management fee of 1.0% and a total expense ratio with administrative costs of 1.50%. Would you agree to be the sole subadviser of that Vanguard fund and thereby cannibalize your own business by running a Vanguard clone of your fund for one-third the cost? Now let's say Vanguard tells you, hey, don't worry there will be two other subadvisers of this fund, so its portfolio won't be identical to yours. Then the proposition becomes much more attractive. The question is can Vanguard get the right group of subadvisers who can collectively outperform? Vanguard points out, correctly albeit incompletely, that funds with multiple subadvisers have the advantage of smoothing out performance as different managers' styles come in and out of favor. If you combine a top international small-cap value manager with a top international small-cap growth one, hopefully when growth is in favor and value isn't the fund still does reasonably well, and vice versa. The question is can Vanguard get the mix of subadvisers right? Evidently with VINEX this has been a problem. But it is possible now that this new sub has been added another one of the subs that's underperforming will be eliminated.

Geez - The boring markets are getting to me. Indexes have been stable except for the Apples, Teslas, and Amazons that seem to keep going straight up. (Inversely, the airlines seem to be going straight down,) Hard to get excited about bonds, even after the 10-year spiked to near 0.75% this morning. Heard recently that spreads are quite narrow on junk bonds which would mean they’re not a great play. I like energy, gold and the inflation hedges longer term, but they’ve come too far too fast IMO.
I’m hanging on to PRLAX which was down 50% when I bought it a few months back. It’s now “only” down 26% YTD - representing a nice 24% gain in less than 6 months. But I’m not seeing anything near as tempting now. If I had the capability I’d short some of the high flyers. But I’m not equipped to do that being in traditional mutual fund houses held directly with the institution. Going to cash as a spec move is another option - but knowing when to get back in is a tough call. As for shorting, the closest fund I have to that concept is TMSRX, but you’re putting a lot of faith in the manager making the right call, if he wants to short at all.
As always, if you knew which way inflation will run over the next 5 years, the call would be easier. Deflation would make bonds and paying off a 3.3% mortgage smart. Inflation would make those investments somewhat dumb. Than there’s the election, likely to roil the markets, but in unpredictable ways. Geez - They could do anything from staging a “relief rally” to taking a nose-dive and possibly a big bounce for metals, or for bonds for that matter. Of course, if the whiplash isn’t as bad as folks fear, the metals could tumble on the good news.
So how to make a quick buck near-term that you can later roll into your normal allocation for a leg-up longer term? Ideas? (Wiseacre answers prohibited.)

Large Blend, both, IRA and Taxable accounts.
That helps. I didn't know whether you were looking for a core fund or a good esoteric fund.
For the past several years, the more growthy a large cap international fund has been, the better it is likely to have done. This difference is not small, the margin is huge. The average category returns (per M*) over the past five years are: LCG 9.62%, LC Bl 5.28%, LCV 2.36%.
There's no guarantee this will continue, and using a large cap blend fund is a good way to hedge your bets. Even within this category, though, the more the fund leans toward growth, the better its history will look.
With that in mind, a fund worth considering is MDIDX. It's a fund of funds from MFS, a good family for international funds. While M* considers it a blend fund, it has been a bit growthy and Lipper classifies it as a multi-cap growth fund. But it just added MKVHX (LCV) as one of the funds it holds, and adjusted its allocations so that the fund should be an "honest" blend fund going forward. Part of that adjustment was to increase its EM component weight to 17.5% which is reasonable for a core fund unless you want to have a separate EM fund and control that allocation yourself.
It has a somewhat smaller than average market cap, which is why Lipper considers it multi-cap rather than large cap. IMHO that's another plus for the fund, especially if one is looking for more of an all-in-one fund.
It is fairly tax efficient, so it can be used both inside and outside of an IRA. The ER of the fund is 1.11%, which includes the expenses of the underlying funds it invests in. That's a bit higher than I'd like for a large cap fund, but it's not outrageous.
If you want a more growthy fund, SCIEX is a fund that M* calls blend and Lipper calls large cap growth. It's managed by Schroeder, which is one of the two firms submanaging VWIGX, a fine large cap growth fund suggested by Lewis above. (However, SCIEX isn't great on tax efficiency.)
If you want a more value leaning fund, TROSX suggested by Mulder420 above, is a good prospect.
Virtually all of the funds suggested in this thread come from families with excellent reputations for international investing.

If I make a surprising 25-50% on a stock in 2-3 months, especially if it was not expected given my own view of the markets and the underlying item(s) in question, I consider that worthy of locking in the gains. And no, this is all in taxable. My 403(b) is on autopilot and 100% invested in a single American Fund (RWMGX).

@rforno : What do you consider insanely high STCG profits. Best I could come up with during recent fall - rise was 12% profit. But if one put money to work on the lowest drop day for market , I'd guess profit would be another 3% to 4% profit.
And if you sold , I'm guessing it was in retirement account ?
As for me ,dry powder went both ways , so no sales so far.
Stay Safe, Derf

Across all accounts I'm about 75% in the market, nearly all in equities & equity funds. The remainder is mostly cash I've been trying to put to work for a while (few opportunities) or cash raised by stuff I bought in Feb that's run up to insanely high STCG profits that to not close them out would be crazy.
My plan right now is to continue nibbling opportunistically on stocks I want to build big(ger) positions in for the long-long term and capitalize on volatility between now and November. My hope is to go into 2021 with a very small cash pile, even if all I've done is move $$$ into my existing OEFs. But as always, I'll take what the market gives me.

Depending on your risk tolerance, here are a few choices:
For low fee and consistent performance, Vanguard International Growth fund, VHIGX, is a good choice. The Admiral share has even lower fee. VHIGX has 22% emerging market 14% US exposure while the rest are in developed market.
On the value side, the new Vanguard Global Wellington, VGWLX, is a global allocation fund with 65/35 stocks/bond. This fund held up well in March drawdown and it is the most conservative of the three listed here.
For smaller cap global exposure, Grandeur Peak Global Stalwarts Fund, GGSOX, is a solid choice with consistent performance. The portfolio has 14% emerging market and 45% US exposure. The ER is higher than the Vanguard funds above.

My favorite fund is MIOPX which is managed by Kristen Heugh. This is a strong international fund with broad exposure to Europe as well as emerging markets. Ben suggested their global fund which is also excellent. If you run the numbers you'll see that it consistently outperforms all other funds internationally over 3, 5, and 7 years. In a down market it will get hit, but it actually held up well in March this year. A second fund that I think highly of is FSEAX. This is focused exclusively on emerging asia so it provides strong China exposure. I am just watching this one right now because of tensions with China but it also is a strong consistent performer. MATFX from Matthews is also intriguing.