Hahahaha. I love that skit of his....

Thanks @hank...great link. She likes the public markets verse the private and as we know these two markets can require further explanation:

Thanks @hank...great link. She likes the public markets verse the private and as we know these two markets can require further explanation:

@JohnN - Would you please explain where that gold flowed to? #@*&#!
Gold’s perked up in recent days. Near $1750 after dipping below $1700. Mining stocks have recovered. OPGSX, of which I own a bit, is almost back to break-even for the year. Encouraging after a poor start to ‘21.
Don’t try to read much into gold’s fluctuations. Its price swings mean little day to day or even week to week. Trends can quickly reverse in either direction. 4-5% one-day swings in mining funds occur. If you want to own, hold for the long term. Yes - you can try to time it, but very risky.
-
@bee - FWIW: One source I read (by subscription) has argued lately that “real” interest rates have actually been falling this year because the rate increases in bonds aren’t keeping up with inflation. I don’t know if that’s right or not - but it’s an interesting way of looking at the bigger picture.

I’ve caught most, but not all, of this March 25 interview. She sounds fascinating. Covers areas like investment and liquidity risk, hedging to reduce risk, interest rates and tactical investing. Suspect there’s an education to be had here if one has the time (30 minutes).
Notes from later viewing:
- This is not a hedge fund, but rather a foundation serving philanthropy and having a nearly infinite time horizon.
- Fitzpatrick uses the phrase “leaning into (market) dislocation” repeatedly to describe adding to holdings when markets appear cheap.
- Gentle swipe at open ended funds which “have to play to the lowest common denominator” (ie - provide steady predictable but inferior returns) on investor capital.
- Sounds concerned about liquidity in treasury markets. Alludes to possible exaggerated reactions in bond market to macro-news or developments.
- Was approached recently by Blackstone about a position / declined offer
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2021-03-25/soros-cio-revives-her-boss-s-legendary-risk-appetite-video

Alibaba, a top holding in many emerging market funds. In recent weeks, EM funds have been volatile and declining a bit while the rest of the world are moving upward. This is one of the few time the Chinese government is fining one of its own stocks.

Feb. 7: China’s market regulator releases new anti-monopoly guidelines targeting internet platforms, further tightening restrictions on the country’s tech giants.
March 2: Ant is working on measures to help staff with “short-term liquidity problems”, internal staff messages from executive chairman Eric Jing show, after the IPO suspension dashed employees’ hopes of cashing in their shares.
March 12: Ant CEO Simon Hu unexpectedly resigns, the first top management exit since the scuppered $37 billion IPO.
March 18: Chinese regulators say they have Alibaba, Tencent, TikTok owner ByteDance and nine other technology companies for talks on use of “deepfake” technologies on their content platforms, stepping up scrutiny of the sector.
April 10: Regulators say they have fined Alibaba $2.75 billion for violating anti-monopoly rules and abusing its dominant market position, China’s highest antitrust fine ever.

https://reuters.com/article/us-china-alibaba-timeline/events-leading-up-to-chinas-2-75-billion-fine-on-alibaba-idUSKBN2BX04W?il=0

April 10th Episode:
Time in the market verses timing the market...
Time in the market is the best way to reduce risk and insure success for the average investor, not day trading.

Valuation of markets (stocks/bonds) matters. Earnings need to keep pace with stock price. The market often prices (values) stocks ahead of earnings. Pay attention to earnings of stocks.
Select out of favor stocks with good fundamentals. Emerging market stock & EM bonds fit this criteria right now. Small Cap US Value stocks are a great long term investment.
Do you have a favorite Small Cap Value Fund/ ETF?
Vanguard has a few highly ranked SV funds:
VSMVX
VRTVX
VISVX
PV Link comparing these three funds
Emerging Market Debt Fund:
VEMBX
PREMX
Emerging Market Stocks Fund:
ARTYX
PRMSX

Interesting summary of IVA: https://www.morningstar.com/articles/708457/behind-the-rise-and-fall-of-an-esteemed-value-shop
Have to admit TL;DR it all.

https://www.kitco.com/news/2021-04-08/107-5-tonnes-of-gold-flowed-out-of-global-ETFs-in-March-World-Gold-Council.html
107.5 tonnes of gold flowed out of global ETFs in March - World Gold Council
Neils Christensen Neils Christensen
Thursday April 08, 2021 10:56
Kitco News
***(Kitco News) - The gold market is starting to attract some new bullish momentum, but the market has a big hill to climb as data shows just how dismal the precious metal market has been since the start of the year.
Rising bond yields and resilient strength in the U.S. dollar took their toll on the gold market last month as investors liquidated their gold-backed exchange-traded funds (ETFs) at an extraordinary pace, according to the latest data from the World Gold Council.
Thursday, the WGC said that 107.5 tonnes of gold, valued at $5.9 billion, flowed out of global ETF products in March. The report noted that the gold market had seen strong outflows in four of the last five months.***
Because of current market environments/ inflations concerns /administrations duties and Feds' actions, commodities may skyrocket after summer and beyond???

@Crash

I could even withdraw from the IRA and throw it in the brokerage "sweep" account.

Are you stating that you are considering withdrawing money from your IRA in order to open a "taxable" brokerage account to invest in single stocks; versus having a brokerage account feature within your existing IRA?

:) . No, actually, not precisely THAT. I'm building/saving to get to the Brokerage opening minimum of $2,500, in a separate savings sleeve. (Almost there.) I'll open the brokerage with THAT.
I was only thinking out loud: "under the right circumstances, a Producer could make more money with a flop, instead of a hit."
The prospect I was entertaining is this: after the brokerage is opened, I could conceivably continue to build the available total in that sweep account. "Building some dry powder." To do it, I could take no more than my usual annual amount ($4-5k) from the IRA and just not USE it. I could add it to whatever is already in the sweep account. then, eventually use it.

My response that @davidmoran article (above link) posted here:
https://mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/58025/q-a-bucket-strategies-in-retirement#latest

@davidmoran,
Author seems to dismiss the US market going forward...not sure that's fair. Do Italians invest in merely Italian stocks? That would be like US investors investing in one US state's stocks. The US market is global in it's footprint...nowhere near as narrow a single country market outside of the US.
I used Portfolio Visualizer and a list of older mutual funds...found here:
https://gfmasset.com/2018/12/list-of-oldest-mutual-funds/
Here's an example of four of the oldest International mutual funds (SLSSX, FOSFX, VTRIX and ANWPX). They all date back to 1985 and I provide 4% withdrawal data through 2021.
International Funds using a 4% withdrawal 1985 - 2021
I conclude one would be well served with either a broad based US or International fund.
I also attempted to create (60/40) allocations using the above stock funds and SCSBX as the bond proxy. I also selected VWELX instead of the author's VBINX since I could back test further (1985).
Using International 60/40 Allocations and a 4% Withdrawal Compared to VWELX
Interestingly, they all performed better than VWELX over the last 36 year period (1985-2021)

PRSIX (a 30-50 allocation fund) was listed as one of the top 12 as FMSDX but when I compare the two, FMSDX appears to be the clear winner. PRSIX does have a longer track record but FMSDX has certainly outperformed PRSIX in the last 5 years. I guess PRSIX has a slightly lower ER, though.
EAPCX - "commodities broad basket" Interesting. I've never owned one of these funds.

@JonGaltIII Thanks for the input. FMSDX is a great fund and one of my larger holdings. The oldest share class of FMSDX is FAYZX which is still only 5.5 years. My concern for FMSDX is that it has 18% in High Yield bonds. I have concerns about how it may perform during a recession.
I worry about a 1970's style period of inflation. Home and stock prices are two examples of inflated prices. Food prices are rising. I bought relatively modest amount VCMDX at Vanguard and FSRRX at Fidelity. FSRRX is less volatile than EAPCX. If signs of inflation increase I will consider EAPCX.

I'm a strong supporter of PRBLX/PRILX and hold the latter in large quantities at the moment.
Though Portfolio Visualizer hardly shows it giving index-like returns. It does much better!

Indeed, if I could go back in my investing history and pick "just one" PRBLX would likely be the one. I basically did just that with my wife's 401K and then IRA, my god, but without the hairdressing dips!

Thanks @Derf for the dose of reality. I was off 3.27% in 2018. I do recall the markets collapsed late in the year. Short lived. (Maybe the Fed tried to take away the punch bowl?) Also, in 2015 I lost a bit over 4%.
I’m not sure whether such minor fluctuations in value would have been enough for @Crash to stop withdrawing money from his holdings? Geez - if like myself you’re only pulling 7% out yearly, the “hit” from withdrawing money during a 3-4% off year is almost negligible - especially if you stagger the withdrawals.

**********************************
@hank Wifey would have me spend it all right now. She can always come up with a "good" reason to spend money. ;). And I'm long since past feeling indignant, every time her family asks for money. The latest? Her brother's cataract surgery. Yes, he's got "insurance," but it's suck-ass insurance. Philippines is still very much a third-world country.
I'm investing primarily for heirs. I don't want to draw down the total. Right now, I'm only just starting to expand beyond funds, into single stocks. Those will be small-ish plays. I could even withdraw from the IRA and throw it in the brokerage "sweep" account. Thus, it COULD serve as my ONLY "bucket."
I'm lately not very happy with Navy FCU. My local branch has been designated a "limited cash location." So, last time I wanted to cash wifey's check, I was told they'd give me only $250, and we'd have to wait for the rest. ... Which is why Hickam FCU is becoming our primary, Navy our secondary. (Anyone who lives on Oahu is eligible for Hickam.)

PRILX has generated higher returns than VFIAX with lower volatility and smaller drawdowns.
----------3Yr ---5Yr --10Yr -15Yr
PRILX 21.17 17.47 14.66 11.98*
VFIAX 18.50 17.11 14.21 10.22
*PRBLX
The seasoned management team executes a thoughtful, repeatable investment strategy.
What's not to like?

Apologies for the earlier incorrect (News Max) reference. I was awaiting a flight back to Michigan in Charlotte earlier today when I posted that in haste. Did a lot of beach reading over the past week while in Hilton Head - but with Barron’s, the WP and WSJ hitting my Kindle on a regular basis, dates and sources of stories became a bit of a blur.
I’ve corrected the original post, quoted from the WSJ article I’d meant to reference (April 5, 2021) and provided a link to a search result that might even get you in the back door if you’d like to read the article.

I'm a strong supporter of PRBLX/PRILX and hold the latter in large quantities at the moment.
Though Portfolio Visualizer hardly shows it giving index-like returns. It does much better!

Barons says it’s going the other way: https://www.barrons.com/articles/stock-market-investing-is-picking-up-baby-boomers-might-be-behind-it-51617893273

Interesting share. I'm looking forward to reading Charles post further. I'm in a few of those funds. Quick observations on a few of the 12:
PRBLX seems like a fine fund but it tracks so closely to the S&P 500 Index, why not just invest in an S&P index fund?
PRSIX (a 30-50 allocation fund) was listed as one of the top 12 as FMSDX but when I compare the two, FMSDX appears to be the clear winner. PRSIX does have a longer track record but FMSDX has certainly outperformed PRSIX in the last 5 years. I guess PRSIX has a slightly lower ER, though.
PRGSX is a great fund and deserves to be included. It's outpacing my MGGPX this year and with a lower expense ratio. I had a difficult time deciding between the two. Perhaps I should revisit it.
EAPCX - "commodities broad basket" Interesting. I've never owned one of these funds.
Really appreciate reading the methodology that Charles shared and how his choices compare to Fidelity Picks and M*.

https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/best-stocks-to-buy-now-4-semiconductor-stocks-to-watch-2021-04-05
May need add more to qqq or soxl
One friend at work who is computer engineer expert says chip shortages may last 12 24 months because it may take while build new facilities
Regards
Maybe better buy - Doritos (today)