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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • The Struggles of a 60/40 Portfolio for Pensions and Individual Investors
    My portfolio is similar to a traditional 60/40 portfolio at about 55/35/10 (short term & other). No plans to change course anytime soon. Four funds somewhat fit the traditional 60/40 mould: BTBFX, JABAX, RPGAX, and VLAAX (Fido will not let me into PRWCX image ).
  • Question re: ETF NUSI from Nationwide - Tax treatment of distributions, "return of capital"
    Mark: Thanks for reply/comments. Thanks for link to ROC post, but it is an explanation of Return ON Capital. I was asking for clarification/explanation of Return OF Capital.
    Since posting my question, I came across helpful post from 'Greg Group' which says (in part):
    The premiums received for the call writes is not considered income until the position has been completed or ended. Therefore, the CEF has the cash premiums but it can’t be considered income because the option trade has not ended. When this cash is used for distributions, it will be classified as return of capital instead of income. In reality, this distribution was not a result of returning cash from exceeding the growth of income and it is not a transfer of equity value from the company to shareholders. The distribution is merely classified as return of capital because it does not meet the terms of recognized income yet.
    Full link (at SeekingAlpha) is here:
    https://seekingalpha.com/article/314510-the-best-buy-write-closed-end-funds
  • Question re: ETF NUSI from Nationwide - Tax treatment of distributions, "return of capital"
    This might help.
    ROC: The Great Decider
    It also helps to think that when you buy an option, either a put or a call, you can earn a profit just by holding the option even if the option is not executed.
  • Question re: ETF NUSI from Nationwide - Tax treatment of distributions, "return of capital"
    [1] ETF.com PROFILE: https://www.etf.com/NUSI
    [2] NUSI PAGE AT NATIONWIDE: https://nationwidefinancial.com/products/investments/etfs/fund-details/NUSI
    [3] NUSI FACTSHEET: https://nationwidefinancial.com/media/pdf/MFM-3425AO.pdf
    [4] RULE 19a-1 DISCLOSURE, JUL 2020: https://nationwidefinancial.com/media/pdf/MFN-0324M7.pdf [a]
    NUSI is an ETF from Nationwide that uses an options strategy to generate income from its holdings in the Nasdaq 100.
    According to the "Supplemental Tax Information" appearing near the bottom of the fund page (#2), the fund seems to be distributing a "return of capital", although precise categorization won't be known until after year-end.
    QUESTION: Can someone explain (or provide a reference to) what it is about options trading that produces this "return of capital"?
    [a] For example, the 19a-1 disclosure linked above includes the following:
    In connection with the monthly dividend payment of $0.1793 per share payable on July 24, 2020 to shareholders of record on July 23, 2020, it is anticipated that 100% of such dividend will be a return of capital.
  • What do you hold in taxable accounts?
    These days, all ETFs are free at many brokerages, including Vanguard and Fidelity.
    An exception is that Vanguard will not let you buy leveraged or inverse ETFs, and will charge you a commission to sell those ETFs you already hold there.
    https://investor.vanguard.com/investing/leveraged-inverse-etf-etn
    While Fidelity prominently features its own ETFs and those of Blackrock (iShares), it lets you buy and sell all ETFs without commissions.
    https://screener.fidelity.com/ftgw/etf/evaluator/gotoBL/research#/home
    Given that stock and ETF trades are already free, ISTM the major benefit of free trades at Vanguard is for TF mutual funds. (At Fidelity, you may be charged a transaction fee to buy a fund, but selling is free - subject to a possible short term trading fee for NTF funds.)
    Vanguard counts only Vanguard funds (including ETF share class) when adding up the assets you hold there for free trades. Free trades come at the Flagship ($1M) level or above. (T. Rowe Price likewise counts only TRP funds when determining which perks it will give you.)
    Fidelity counts all assets you hold there toward its customer levels - Premium ($250K), Private Client ($1M). However, it seems to be quietly phasing these out. A few years ago, it became difficult to find any description of Premium services, and now I can't find a clear Fidelity page on its Private Client services.
    Still, at least one perk remains for customers at these levels: ATM fee reimbusements for all brokerage accounts (not just CMA accounts).
  • With stock valuations high and bond yields low ... Where is the best place to put new money?
    Any non psychotic investment advisor would look at my portfolios and shutter, but I have tried to match my overall equity and risk assets to my ability to sleep at night.
    I have about 20% in equities, 10 % in other stuff ( Gold, MERFX, COGIX, TAIL ( up 8% this year)
    The rest ( 65-70%) is in ST high grade bonds and cash. I think all traditional methods of evaluating the market are out the window with Covid. The Pandemic really depends on a bunch of "Bros" at colleges not infecting each other, and not infecting the staff, teachers and grandparents
    No evidence I have seen in the last two weeks that this will not end badly
  • With stock valuations high and bond yields low ... Where is the best place to put new money?
    HI @johnN, I've pretty much packed the trunk in high yield at about 20% of the portfolio. A good number of my asset allocation and hybird income give me good exposure to this asset class so it no longer is a go for me to add more as a stand alone.
    Hi @Puddnhead, Yep I agree about playing the dip if it will progress into a pull back which is a decline in the five to ten percent range. I'll want to see a reading on my barometer in the 160 range before opening a spiff.
    Hi @expatsp, I usually let my barometer be my guide as when to load equities. I have found in the past a good entry point is when the barometer has a reading of 160, or better. The higher the reading the more the investment value the S&P 500 Index has over a lower reading. That's my plan 160 or greater.
    Hi @sma3. Yep, I agree on the quandary. Sometimes it is hard to just sit but sometimes if you are fully invested within your asset allocation as I am that is perhaps the best thing to do. Right now, I've got ants in my pants, looking for an opportunity and not finding one.
    Hi @Derf, One of the things that worked well for me in the last market swoon was to enter in step fasion with each buy step being greater than the previous based upon the theory that the deeper the pull back went the less risk there was in buying. I'm thinking from memory I had a total of about eight buy steps as I bought on the way down and then on the rebound until I reached my average buy in point. However, with any plan build some flexability into it.
    Hi @carew388. Merger arbitrage funds like MERFX or HMEAX is something that I have not invested in before. It is something I'll have to study up on. Can you tell me and the others that have made comment what you favor about them and how this has worked out for you. Is it a possition that can be held long term? Or, is it more of an in and out play? I'd be very interested in hearing your comments.
    Again guys ... thanks for making comment.
    Old_Skeet
  • With stock valuations high and bond yields low ... Where is the best place to put new money?
    I am also in a quandary. I don't see Covid disappearing and I think it will cause at the best a "W" recovery. While these extremely low interest rates do sorta justify the sky high PEs we are seeing, I am always leary putting more money into equities when valuations are stretched like this. We ( SP500) are at tops not seen since the dot.com bust ( But back then the 10 year treasury was yielding what 5%?)
    The additional disaster is the basement low bond yields. The country might keep chugging along without inflation, but to believe this I think you have to assume there will be no economic recovery.
    At some point, either covoid will be controlled, the market will blast off and inflation with it, and bonds crater, or covid will continue the economy sputter, bankruptcies take off and the market crash.
    Thus you can either assume the worse and get a capital gain out of your Treasuries, or party on and hope American Ingenuity will beat Covid, convincingly.
    I am light on equities but don't see bonds as providing the ballast they used to and am stuck in cash.
    i have bought small amounts of blue chip dividend stocks, esp Health care, consumer staples etc staying away from REITS and Utilities, hoping to add more when the market tanks
    If I felt comfortable with options I could follow some of the strategies to profit in both scenarios without risking the nest egg.
  • With stock valuations high and bond yields low ... Where is the best place to put new money?
    Hi Skeeter,
    1. The next dip will be fast. I think it will work, but be quick because the dip-watchers will be buying. Have a plan now.
    2. Will work if, as you say, things go as planned.
    3. Real estate is a no go for me. Also think bankruptcies and defaults ..... it's too early yet.
    4. How bad do you want to invest? Please be an American. More is always better. Planes, tanks, ships, missiles......haven't you learned that yet? lol......
    5. CFIAX - is not something I would add to value and low quality bonds. Why is the market going to change soon to make this good? Also, has no cash in my opinion. INPAX would be a better choice, just me saying. Better quality.....it's what you want with what's coming. You, the one with so many funds.....why buy now? You're being a Robin Hood-er, bro'.
    XXXXXXXXX ......uh, that was the Dukester. I can't get a cold one without his causing a problem. What did he say?
    You're dealing with an ocean of money. Wherever you go, it's been bought already. So his advice is to get some good whiskey .... the sipping stuff..... and relax for awhile. It's not time yet for this. The Brown One ......if he weren't a dog, the things he might do.
    God bless
    the Pudd
  • A Tax-Free 5% Dividend Set To Soar This Fall
    https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaelfoster/2020/08/22/a-tax-free-5-dividend-set-to-soar-this-fall/#51c217dc5e47
    A Tax-Free 5% Dividend Set To Soar This Fall
    Have you read the latest? The media says municipal bonds, our favorite plays for safe, tax-free dividends, are facing a surge in defaults
    Mub have been on a tear recently last 4 5 months...w divs and good prices what else can go wrong?
  • With stock valuations high and bond yields low ... Where is the best place to put new money?
    Futures and options. Well, not for me, but.........you probably don't have any of these in your portfolio:
    WEEK/YTD AUG 22
    --- LTPZ = +1.9% / + 22% (UST, long duration TIPs bonds
    --- TLT = +1.9% /+23.8% (20+ Yr UST Bond
    --- EDV = +2.5% / +31.6% (UST Vanguard extended duration bonds)
    --- ZROZ = +2.8 /+33.5% (UST., AAA, long duration zero coupon bonds)
    WARNING: Hot potato area of bonds.
  • BONDS AAA, a bit twitchy this past week; Update AUG 28
    Last week's title was:
    Bonds not getting any love right now
    AAA bonds found some "lovers" this past week. For a week compare, if you choose; review the week return at the start of this thread and compare to the below returns.
    Well, we investors have the "FED kick" still in place from March, and may invest, with this in mind, where one feels comfortable. At least relative to U.S. investment sectors, hopefully your positions are still seeing profits.
    --- From March: The Federal Reserve kick-started the rebound into risk assets by pledging $3 trillion in unprecedented monetary support, going so far as to buy corporate bonds. That led to many investors repeating the mantra: "Don't fight the Fed" as they swooped in to follow the central bank's lead.
    Those tiny, tiny yield numbers. Tis is easy enough to read in print or view on the tv screen those yield numbers. However, even in a weeks time; the yield numbers may reflect large percent moves. This past week wouldn't seem like much in the 10 year Treasury yield, being .71% on Aug. 14 (near term high) and at .64% on Aug. 21, so if one glanced on the 14th and again on the 21st and kinda forgot about the numbers; you need to keep in mind that the change is almost a 10% change. If this number were a SP500 number, it would be the news of the week. Now, this 10% change is not fully reflected into performance changes for AAA bonds; but is reflected into a positive direction for price performance, which is where the money is made.
    Overview: AAA, safe haven bonds appeared to be more in line with normal performance and movement when investors become a bit twitchy with other market sectors (being overbought/too expensive ???) Do I know if this will persist ???? .......NOPE. Not unlike you, I can only watch price movements and attempt to discover the mood of the equity(s) markets and how this becomes reflected towards AAA bonds. The below is an OMG for those who ponder and wonder about the world of bonds relative to safe havens and/or market expectations from the big players.
    4 days ago - Germany's longest-maturity bonds saw demand rise to an all-time high as investors seeking alternatives to dollar assets bought the nation's highest-yield notes. Bids for the nation's 30-year notes outstripped supply by 2.9 times, the highest since at least 1997, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
    Personal note: the yield on this 30 year bund was at -.05% at the time of the auction.

    I should have previously included performance for AGG, as a gauge, which is now included in the below list.
    The AGG, formerly known as the Bloomberg Barclays Aggregate Bond Index, is an index used by bond traders, mutual funds, and ETFs as a benchmark to measure their relative performance. The index is broadly considered to be the best total market bond index, as it is used by more than 90% of investors in the United States.
    Currently, I glance at data for , but do not track muni's, mortgage or foreign bonds.
    A few data views from bondland, for mostly AAA rated bonds:
    AUGUST 21 WEEK / YTD
    --- AGG = +.4% / +7.1% (widely used bond benchmark)
    --- MINT = + .03% / +1.23% (Pimco Enhanced short maturity, AAA-BBB rated)
    --- SHY = + .01% / +2.96% (UST 1-3 yr bills)
    --- IEI = + .16% /+7.1% (UST 3-7 yr notes/bonds)
    --- IEF = +.6% /+11.6% (UST 7-10 yr bonds)
    --- TIP = +.6% / +8.7% (UST Tips, 3-10 yrs duration, some 20+ yr duration)
    --- LTPZ = +1.9% / + 22% (UST, long duration TIPs bonds
    --- TLT = +1.9% /+23.8% (20+ Yr UST Bond
    --- EDV = +2.5% / +31.6% (UST Vanguard extended duration bonds)
    --- ZROZ = +2.8 /+33.5% (UST., AAA, long duration zero coupon bonds)
    ***Other, for reference, not AAA rated:
    --- HYG = +.8 / -.7% (high yield bonds, proxy ETF)
    --- LQD = +.8% / +8.5% (corp. bonds, various quality)
    Well, enjoy and be careful.
    Regards,
    Catch
  • RYJUX reverse split
    Just from observing the net asset values, it appears the Rydex Inverse Government Long Bond fund (RYJUX) executed a 1 for 5 reverse share split. But I haven't been able to confirm that. Does anyone have a web page link that confirms it? Thx!
  • With stock valuations high and bond yields low ... Where is the best place to put new money?
    In looking at stocks. Pulling data form a couple of my barometer feeds I'm finding that the blended P/E Ratio for the S&P 500 Index computes to 26.1 along with it's yield being found at 1.76%. For me, this indicates that stock valuations are streached by some of the metrics that my late father used and scores stocks as overbought.
    In looking at bonds. I'm finding that the yield on the US10T is 0.64%. I'm wondering what folks are thinking? That is better than what my money market funds are paying but it is still very low by historical standards. By my late father's standards this indicates that US Treasuries are extremely overbought.
    With the above in mind I'm wondering where investors are putting new money to work? For me, I have increased the allocation I have in my income funds from 40% to 45%. My income sleeve has a yield of 4.23% and my hybrid income sleeve has a yield of 3.58%. Within my asset allocation model I am aleady overweight my income area by +5% so no more room to expand there.
    This leaves 15% of my cash in low to no yield places such as money market mutal funds and cash savings. My highest paying money market mutual fund PCOXX has paid out a measley yield of 0.53%. Carry this out and for the full years it projects to a yield of less than one percent.
    With this, I ponder ... What to do in my quest for better returns with some of my cash as it builds?
    Option 1) Sit tight and build cash while I await the next stock market dip (or pull back) where I can put an equity special investment position (spiff) into play. Generally, in the past, I'd look to make at least five percent off my spiffs when engaged. For me, this will work.
    Option 2) I can buy more of my commodity strategy fund (BCSAX) which has a yield of better than 2% and as inflation rises usually the price of commodities rise. This fund holds some gold and gold mining stocks as well. It should do well if the US Dollar continues to decline and the price of commodities rise. For me, this will work.
    Option 3) I can buy more of my real estate income fund (FRINX). As the US Dollar declines generally real estate values increase plus long term this would act as a hedge against inflation. Woops already have a full allocation to real estate and high yield securites. No go here.
    Option 4) Buy more of my convertible (FISCX) and preffered (PFANX) securities funds. Hold up ... already have a full allocation there.
    Option 5) Buy more in my asset allocation funds and let my fund managers find opportunity. This would also work because it would spread the funds's asset mix among those I'm already invested in thus maintaining my asset allocation. Two funds that I'm thinking of are CFIAX & INPAX.
    So, for me, going forward, over the near term, it looks like my better choices are numbers 1, 2, & 5 of the options I covered.
    I am also wondering what you might have thought of and where you might be positioning new money in this low yield environment?
    Thanks for stopping by and reading.
    Take care ... be safe ... and, I wish all "Good Investing."
    I am ... Old_Skeet
  • Old_Skeet's Market Barometer ... Spring & Summer Reporting ... and, My Positioning
    Hi Skeeter,
    Yeah, have looked up SPECX. Looks like a good fund. Will add it to my watch list.
    As far as mid caps....... have been selling them. Down to three funds. Small and mid caps worry me right now. I think things will get worse this fall and winter, so I don't want to own them. I did buy AMFFX....a small watch position. It's the only value fund I own and I'm in no hurry to add.
    As for selling, I sold FEFQX. It was the last tech fund I bought. It had 33% cash, so I got in. Now it has 6% cash. I made good money in a short time period. The fund has a lot of mid tech in it and is way overpriced, I feel. So just took some profits for now.
    I like your thinking this market is way overpriced. I have 17 funds in the portfolio at or nearly at 52-week highs. Have never seen anything like that before. So it would not surprise me to see a pullback. And everybody is going to buy it quickly so I don't think it will last long.
    My biggest fear is evictions and bankruptcies. They're coming like a slow-motion train wreck. It's going to take a while but it's coming. I know I'm repeating this but it worries me.
    Also, told the Dukester you think he's smart. Now he's walking around like he's all that....lol. That's Brown for ya.
    God bless
    the Pudd
    p.s. I'm drinking a longneck now.....
  • Opening checking/savings accounts for the intro bonus
    Regarding debit/credit card rewards, Amex has beefed up its traditional Shop Small incentive. If you register your Amex card by tomorrow, they'll give you $5 credit if you buy $10+ at a wide variety of small businesses by Sept. 20th. You can do this 10 times.
    https://www.americanexpress.com/us/small-business/shop-small/
  • Cramer: all sound and fury

    You’ve identified the storyline here. What remains is how will the story end? With a bang or a whimper? And when? Those who’ve seen the last 15 minutes of this movie aren’t letting on - if they know. It’s tempting to forecast a 50% drubbing of the stock market in short order. The “smart money“ waiting in the wings awakens and moves into stocks at sharply lower prices. A happy ending for the forgotten few who resisted the temptation to own equities and held out long enough. Right out of Disney.
    For those with longterm views and appropriately positioned accounts & investing mentalities, I suspect it'll end in annoying and noticeable whimper. But for those who 'bet it all on XYZ because CNBC/Twitter/Newsletter said so' and just play the markets the way they play DraftKings or FanDuel or spin a roulette wheel, I suspect it'll end in a big, bloody, bang for them ... as it probably would and serve them right, I guess.
    I might speculate on short-term index moves via futures or ETFs but 95+ percent of my investments are for the long term unless the current situation suggests I should 'raise shields' a bit and go defensive ... which I did w/stuff i bought in Feb which I wanted to hold for the long term, but which I sold this month after insane run-ups in recent months.
    Too bad there aren't futures on popcorn we could go long on while watching things, eh? ;)
  • Opening checking/savings accounts for the intro bonus
    @little5bee I've done a couple credit card deals, but avoid then cuz that's a sure credit pull...
    I also do other things, like reward programs where you link your credit card & each time you shop or eat at certain places you get additional rewards. I use iDine & Dosh for this...for example, 1 restaurant I go to, when those 2 programs combine with my credit card rewards, I get 19% cash back, in addition to reward points at the restaurant (where I'm over $1500 in free food & drinks banked now)
  • Cramer: all sound and fury

    I find myself agreeing with Jim Cramer here ... which happens, from time to time.
    Remember the irrational exhuberance going into the Dot Com Crash (Pets.Com!), the Housing Bubble (5 houses on NINJA loans!), and now this.
    Remember when you start seeing day-trading ads and services on TV and people start buying into the mania thinking they can't ever lose and that markets only go in one direction (up) that it's time to start inching closer toward the fire exit. As Jeremy Irons' character from 'Margin Call' said, "it's not panic if you're the first one out the door."
    What is particualrly disturbing is the 'gamification' of investing by platforms like Robinhood that conflate longterm "investing" for wealth-building and retirement planning with "trading".
    My investment portfolio is downright boring compared to most people, and I'm fine with that. It's also why I don't believe in the indices or do index-based investing -- because they're so heavily influenced by a single-digit's worth of ultramegacorps and don't reflect broader equity sentiments.
    You’ve identified the storyline here. What remains is how will the story end? With a bang or a whimper? And when? Those who’ve seen the last 15 minutes of this movie aren’t letting on - if they know. It’s tempting to forecast a 50% drubbing of the stock market in short order. The “smart money“ waiting in the wings awakens and moves into stocks at sharply lower prices. A happy ending for the forgotten few who resisted the temptation to own equities and held out long enough. Right out of Disney.
    Equally likely are an alternative set of scenarios.
    - A very long multi-year (even multi-decade) “rolling” decline to normal valuations with alternating good and bad years. Patient investors can still make money in such an environment - but would require more insight and ingenuity than simply buying the index.
    - A rotational correction where the big overvalued names fall while the undervalued equity sectors gain. Financials have lagged. And while one might think the energy, commodity, natural resource sectors overvalued after a recent surge, truth be told those areas are just emerging from the worst decade long bear market in history.
    - Correction by stagnation. Equities essentially go nowhere for a decade or longer while the dollar sags, global interest rates rise, and the CPI , real assets, real estate climb in value. Even without a sharp decline, equities would have returned to more normal valuations relative to the dollar and other asset classes over a decade or so.
    - Black swans. War, domestic upheaval, shifts in the global balance of power, plagues, environmental catastrophe can all upend an economy and jolt markets leading to different end results than anyone anticipated.
    .