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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Gold Prices Fall By Most In 3 Months on Covid Vaccine News
    They got the gold price news about right. But haven’t told the whole story.
    Main reason gold’s backsliding today - Dollar fell about 2% on international currency markets overnight..
    Reason for Dollar’s strength - Yields on Treasury bonds are soaring. The commonly watched 10-year jumped about 10 basis points overnight as global stock markets rallied. Now at around 0.93% - the highest in many months.
    Reason rates spiked - There are many. But the vaccine news suggests a notably higher inflation outlook as global economies emerge from pandemic. No doubt, some of the move in bonds is also attributable to the Biden victory and likely increased government spending.
    Gold is nearing a $100 loss for the day, down from around $1950 Friday. Miners look to be down 8% for the day at the moment. But 10% by day’s end wouldn’t surprise me. Points to the risks of trying to play the precious metals markets.
    LINK
  • Fund Moves in 2020
    I've not bought any new funds in 2020, but have had many debates with myself about holding some that I already own.
    I've had Fidelity Growth Fund FDGRX in my IRA for quite a few years. It's been a solid fund which really took off earlier in 2020. I just couldn't believe the growth rate was sustainable -- it really became a momentum play -- so I took money off the table in early June. What a dummy!
    It wiggled a little, but continued to go up. I did retain some shares in case I want to get back in (it's closed to new investors).
    My largest position is Fidelity Select Semiconductors FSELX, also in my IRA. It can be very volatile.
    Every time it hits a new peak, I consider cashing in.
    Every time it plummets, I wish I had cashed in, but hold on.
    It's up 44.5 % for the past 12 months (and 21.2% per year for the past 10 years, which is why it's become my largest position).
    Not in 2020 but last year, I bought Acre Focus AKREX because of comments on this board. It has been a solid fund -- thanks, folks.
    David
  • October Update Marks MFO Premium’s 5th Year Anniversary
    All ratings have been updated on MFO Premium site, including MultiSearch, Great Owls, Fund Alarm (Three Alarm and Honor Roll), Averages, Dashboard of Profiled Funds, and Fund Family Scorecard. The site now includes several analysis tools, including Correlation, Rolling Averages, Trend, Ferguson Metrics, Calendar Year and Period Performance.
    Please read more here.
  • this time it's not the same (or is it?)
    Most/all of these theories were developed of past decades. The high tech boom is a new revolution where the big tech companies make so much more than the rest, new smaller high tech companies are constantly been created. The fast, easy, reliable and cheap global communication make it very accessible to millions. That basically means that finding great hidden value is much harder and if you find a great one the price will adjust much faster. So yes, I think we are in a different time now.
    But, it's pretty easy to just use the SP500 which is a blend index and because it's weighted by market cap it will adjust accordingly.
  • Fund Moves in 2020
    @little5bee: on a M* fund profile, click on “Parent” and you will find fund flow stats for the entire MF company. Under the graph on the “Quote” tab that shows growth of $10k, you’ll find a smaller graph that shows fund flows by quarter for the individual fund. In my experience, funds that have outflows often wind up with larger capital gains distributions at year end.
  • Seeking Yield With Safety

    A second topic that came up is yields. There is the SEC Yield and trailing twelve month yields. Some funds pay annual dividends and others pay one time dividends. Why should you care? Take GAVIX. The forward yield is 7.1%, the four year average yield is 6% ...
    The fund paid no income divs in 2018 or 2019. In 2016 it paid $0.07523/share with a reinvestment price of $14.73 (0.51%), and in 2015 it paid $0.06761/share with a reinvestment price of $13.54 (0.50%). That's an average dividend yield of 0.25% over the past four years.
    Even if one includes cap gains, distributions over the past four years were:
    2019: $0.90414 reinvested at $13.21 (6.84%)
    2018: $0.83899 reinvested at $12.71 (6.60%)
    2017: $0.49539 reinvested at $14.73 (3.36%)
    2016: $0.479321 reinvested at $13.54 (3.54%)
    The cap gains in 2018 and 2019 (there were no dividend distributions) did average 6%+, but over four years I can't see how, even after adding income divs and cap gains together, one could average 6%.
    My data source is Fidelity's distribution page for the fund. I've verified the total distribution figures at the source: https://knowledgeleadersfunds.com/
  • Fund Moves in 2020
    So much of fund performance seems driven by fund flows...especially for bond funds. Does anyone know of a screener that tracks this?
    I agree that fund flows can both accelerate a fund’s positive performance when money is streaming in and exacerbate losses when money flows out. There are probably some better methods / sources than what I use. But MaxFunds does present a “hot money” barometer. For OAKBX (a fund I sold 2 years ago) it rates the hot money flow as “average” 3/5.
    MaxFund Screener OAKBX
  • What Blockbuster Automaker Profits Tell Us About The Pandemic Economy
    Following is the complete text from a current NPR financial article.
    The auto industry is roaring back far sooner than expected, in the latest sign of the economy's two-track recovery. Major auto manufacturers have been raking in money this past quarter, as consumers who can afford it show unexpectedly strong appetite for expensive new vehicles.
    Companies like Ford, General Motors, Fiat Chrysler, Daimler and BMW reported impressive earnings in the period between July to September, surpassing their pre-pandemic performance in many key metrics. Honda and Toyota raised their profit forecasts sharply. It's a remarkable turnaround for an industry that, just a few months ago, was facing a grim outlook. Plants around the world were shut down this spring to stop the spread of the coronavirus.
    Carmakers couldn't sell vehicles, because they weren't making any. They were bleeding billions of dollars, and bracing for a recession that would send demand for their products plummeting even after they restarted assembly lines. But then production resumed. And it turns out Americans — those who can still afford new cars, anyway — want new vehicles as badly as ever. Pent-up demand from people who put off purchases earlier in the pandemic was boosted even further by federal stimulus checks and low interest rates.
    "Consumers have proved resilient," says Stephanie Brinley, an analyst with IHS Markit. "They came back to the showrooms as soon as they could."
    It might seem counter-intuitive. Millions of Americans are struggling financially. The U.S. has recovered just over half of the 22 million jobs lost early in the pandemic. But those job losses disproportionately hit lower-income workers, particularly in service industries, and new cars are marketed to higher-earning buyers. The stock market has been soaring, and many well-compensated workers have been able to work from home.
    Instead of experiencing a financial crunch, they might even be saving money by reducing expenditures on things like travel and dining out.
    The spending power of the financially comfortable is powering sales trends in high-end homes as well as new cars.
    Indeed, those buyers showed a strong preference for pricey pick-up trucks and SUVs loaded with premium features, pushing new car transaction prices higher. That's a long-standing trend in American car buying, but it may have been intensified by the pandemic, as financially secure shoppers are less focused on commuter vehicles and thinking more about road trips or leisure.
    The preference for high-cost vehicles means automakers can turn tidy profits even on a smaller number of total sales. Meanwhile, some companies are also seeing a boost from rising used car prices, which provided a cash infusion to their financing arms. Demand in China has also rebounded significantly.
    The result? Ford paid back $15 billion it had borrowed to make it through the pandemic and still had $30 billion in cash left over. General Motors doubled analyst expectations for earnings-per-share in the third quarter. And Fiat Chrysler reported its highest ever quarterly earnings in North America.
    Brinley notes that sales will still be down for the year as a whole, and given the uncertainty about the ongoing pandemic, "there is still opportunity to have difficulty in the next year."
    But the unexpectedly strong performance from automakers in the third quarter helps make up for the losses they suffered earlier in the year. And it's a relief for automakers as they look toward the future, where they have committed to make hefty investments.
    Every major car company is banking on a future in battery-powered vehicles, which requires an expensive transformation in their industry. And that's before you tally up the costs of investing in autonomous vehicles.
    GM CEO Mary Barra emphasized this week that the tremendous amount of cash that GM was earning from full-size trucks and SUVs in North America will allow the company to self-fund its electric vehicle investments, rather than needing to borrow money or seek investors. "We're going to go hard at [electric vehicles]," she said. "The North America performance ... allows us to do that."
    Meanwhile, Tesla, which led the industry in electrification and is popular with luxury car customers, was profitable all year long.
  • $2.50 a Year in Interest? That’s What $5,000 in Savings Gets
    hank, from your link, this thread is about "The average rate paid by banks on basic, federally insured savings accounts"
    Someone who seriously looks for the above isn't going to invest in a fund that lost about 9% as TMSRX. This is why I posted about ICSH, JPST, BSV=VBIRX.
    There are several banks that will pay much higher than 0.05% but the writer as many other is lazy and/or doesn't want to do extensive research for serious options.
    There are several other options but it depends on what you are trying to achieve.
    Do you want/need? Ballast, higher income, more performance, lower taxes.
    As you know I try to avoid black swans and why I'm out when risk is elevated and I don't like market conditions. It also depends on your style. I'm a trader. While IOFIX was down sharply (just in 3 weeks), it's up over 50% since the crash. I love short term volatility and then calm water.
  • $2.50 a Year in Interest? That’s What $5,000 in Savings Gets
    @Catch22 - Thanks. The roof fell in on a lot of stuff in March. I was busy buying up stuff, so didn’t pay much attention to short term losses. TRBUX, the ultra-short, which I also have held from inception, dropped about a dime during that brief period (from its $5.00 peg). It had been very stable for years. Clearly, something was very amiss in the credit markets - which @msf alludes to above. Considering that some equity funds fell 25-35% during March / April, a 9% loss looks tolerable. As I noted earlier, I wouldn’t use this fund as a cash substitute.
    Since when do we consider 15-days to represent “peak to trough” when speaking of mutual funds? Anybody with a 15-30 day time horizon should rush on down to their local bank and deposit said funds in an insured passbook account.
    The magnitude of the short-lived market disruption is summarized well by Wikipedia:
    “The 2020 stock market crash, also referred to as the Coronavirus Crash, was a major and sudden global stock market crash that began on 20 February 2020 and ended on 7 April. The crash was the fastest fall in global stock markets in financial history and the most devastating crash since the Wall Street Crash of 1929.”
  • $2.50 a Year in Interest? That’s What $5,000 in Savings Gets
    As FD1000 has written elsewhere and here, one shouldn't plan one's life around black swan events. Though as I've written before, what some call black swan events happen with almost predictable regularity.
    Because of Fed intervention (IMHO that was the true black swan), the loss for TMSRX was short lived. For an enhanced cash-ish holding, time to breakeven would seem to be a metric one might care more about. One might be willing to wait a few months in exchange for not losing any value.
    By that measure, the timeframe to look at for TMSRX is 4/4/18 (peak) to 12/27/18 (trough, down 4.99%) through 7/1/19 (full recovery). 15 months under water.
    In comparison, VBIRX dropped from 11/7/2001 to 12/17/2001 by 1.91%, taking until 5/22/2001 to fully recover, about half a year. Similar half year periods include:
    3/16/04 (peak) to 6/14/04 (down 2.7%) to 9/16/04 (full recovery);
    10/26/04 (peak) to 3/28/05 (down 1.4%) to 5/18/05;
    3/17/08 (peak) to 6/13/08 (down 2.3%) to 9/8/08;
    11/4/10 (peak) to 2/8/11 (down 1.8%) to 5/16/11;
    5/2/13 (peak) to 7/5/13 (down 1.4%) to 11/26/13.
    I consider these half year spans acceptable timeframes; the fund is not a checking account.
    FWIW, there were a couple of more extended periods under water (albeit shallow water):
    7/5/16 (peak) to 12/15/16 (down 1.8%) to 6/2/17 (11 months);
    9/8/17 (peak) to 5/16/18 (down 1.8%) to 12/18/18 (15 months).
    If sharp drops are what concern you, then look at Veteran's day, 2003. VBIRX spiked 4.1% from the day before, and dropped back down 3.8% the next day. While this might seem to violate the "definition" of black swan because it is not unexpected (bond market closed while stock market open invites bond fund weirdness), the spike wasn't predictable. It seems to have been the only such spike. Also, the fund took over 1.5 years to recover full value on 6/1/2005.
    At the end of the day I look at SEC yield. VBIRX's SEC yield is 0.34% (source: Vanguard). ICSH is 0.39%. JPST is 0.51%. (ETF source: Fidelity) Ally Bank will pay you 0.60%, FDIC insured, rate guaranteed for 11 months, and you can get your money out at any time. The only strings are: the withdrawal is all or nothing, and you can't withdraw in the first seven days.
    To do significantly better, one is going to have to move up the risk spectrum. Whether that is length of time to avoid loss, maximum potential loss, likelihood of being down at any given moment, or some other measure, something has to give.
  • $2.50 a Year in Interest? That’s What $5,000 in Savings Gets
    TMSRX is another animal. There are many bond funds to select from. It lost over 9% in the last meltdown (peak to trough)
    Huh? TMSRX opened in February, 2018 - so is less than 3 years old. I checked at Yahoo and could find no record of a 9% drawdown.
    I’ve owned it since inception and recall that it stumbled out of the gate when the AUM was very low. So it likely ended 2018 in the red. Allowing for that, 9% drawdown sounds a lot higher than I recall in 2018. I really can’t imagine it falling that far over any given 12-month period. But, it is new and untested.
    I use it in my alternative investments sleeve. However, I’ve sometimes thought it might fit in as an income fund, with volatility similar to a short / medium duration bond fund, but much less susceptible to interest rate risk. I would not use it as a cash alternative - but have no serious argument with those who might do so.
    Chart for TMSRX from Lipper. Note the fund’s performance in dark colors (red/green) contrasted with similar funds shaded in lighter shades. Here’s the link..
    image
    -
  • $2.50 a Year in Interest? That’s What $5,000 in Savings Gets
    Fewer years than one might expect.
    Just think, with the power of compounding, after just two years, one would have not 0.10% (2 x 0.05%) in total interest, but a whopping 0.100025%! And it only gets better after that.
  • Tontine
    Kitces cites a movie, a book, and a Simpson's episode as examples of where tontines have entered popular culture. Here's another (excerpt from the Old Soldiers episode of M*A*S*H):
  • Perpetual Buy/Sell/Why Thread
    Sold GDX Gold Miners ETF. >50% return in less than 6 months, pigs get slaughtered. I'm also unclear has to how much more upside might be pulled from this holding.
    @Mark - I hate to inform you the sky is the limit. A lot of the appeal is emotional - hence difficult to value. Miners up 6.85% today alone.
    I know it sounds crazy. I sold my miners a few months ago (for the same good reason you did) - but than “got religion” and bought back in - though only half as much as I sold. It’s now considered a “spec” position - the advantage being it isn’t subject to rebalancing. I don’t understand it. @rono’s the expert. But from reading Bill Fleckenstein pretty regularly I decipher this much:
    - Fed will loose control of the yield curve (whatever that means)
    - Dollar will weaken substantially.
    - Inflation will inflate (run a lot hotter).
    - Stocks will crash.
    - Eventually the Wall Street crowd (fund managers, etc.) will repent of their current skepticism and start buying up the gold miners for the accounts they manage.
    I think that last one is probably the strongest argument Fleck makes, since it suggests there’s still a lot of room to run. I’ll have to say there’s a crowd of die-hard gold bugs who participate in that forum (paid subscription) and it does seem to me to be sort of a religion with many. A 25% selloff in miners doesn’t seem to faze them - so focused are they on the longer term prospects.
    These aren’t necessarily my own views. I’m just sharing FWIW what I perceive as the arguments of the gold bulls. And, of course, nobody wants to be in the metals when the trend reverses. I’ve been on both sides of that coin - so to speak - in my 50 years of investing.
    Full Disclosure:
    OPGSX is considered a “spec“ position and represents only about 2.5% of portfolio.
    PRPFX has substantial exposure to precious metals / miners. About 11% of portfolio.
    PRAFX has limited / moderate exposure to precious metals / miners. About 3.5% of portfolio.
  • Perpetual Buy/Sell/Why Thread

    Bought 10 22.5/30 JAN 23 combo spread on PING for a credit.
    Reason: Been stalking them for a long while, tanked 16% today on an acquisition, and I think the company itself is a possible takeout target at some point.
  • Gold, Miners on the Rise as Dollar Slumps
    “Gold jumps to a two-week high with the dollar falling as Joe Biden nearly wraps up the U.S. presidency, with gold futures +1.3% and cracking $1,921/oz. - a level that has provided both support and resistance after the metal set a new high of $2,075/oz. in August.”
    Seeking Alpha
  • $2.50 a Year in Interest? That’s What $5,000 in Savings Gets
    “ With the Federal Reserve keeping rates low, home buyers are benefiting. But savers? Their average interest rate is just 0.05 percent.”
    NYT
  • Dead Cat Bounce?
    Or maybe short-term market moves don't mean much?
    Depends what kind of meaning one is referring to. If looking for some long term trend, than no - a few days’ action doesn’t tell you much. I get whiplash watching oil prices move around. In effect: trying to discern a lasting trend where there is none.
    However, in terms of real gain, a one day move has virtually the same impact on a portfolio as if that move occurred over the entire year. If your portfolio jumps 5% today or this week, than it’s also jumped an additional 5% year-to-date.
  • “I don’t believe in Warren Buffet” - Fidelity’s Mark Schmehl
    “Valuation is an immaterial part of the process for me ... It’s the least useful piece of information you will ever get because everybody knows what the valuation is.”
    Interview: Fidelity Manager Mark Schmehl - 2017
    Interview: From 2019
    Interview: From 2019
    Looks pretty good to me if his numbers show it, and they do. Looking for disrupting companies is a great thyme and using momentum is another good idea. I looked at 2 of his funds and I see companies such as SHOP,ZM,SQ. 3 great momentum companies YTD, I traded SHOP,SQ several weeks ago for fun.
    Buffett's stock hasn't been doing particularly well in the last 10 years and why BRKA trails it significantly (link). Buffett finally gave up and bought Apple and now it's his biggest stock holdings. This is not the 70"-80" we are in the IT age where every kid around the world has free access to a lot of data and why it's much harder to find a hidden nugget. The big high tech companies now rule the world, they make so much money too.