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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • T. Rowe Price Launches Semi-Transparent ETFs
    These semi-transparent ETFs are "clones" of existing mutual funds.
    Inception date is 08/04/2020.
    Name Ticker Expense Ratio
    Blue Chip Growth ETF TCHP 0.57%
    Dividend Growth ETF TDVG 0.50%
    Equity Income ETF TEQI 0.54%
    Growth Stock ETF TGRW 0.52%
    Link
  • M* - How to Create Cash Flows in Retirement
    I read the article and laughed. The first 4 pay under 1.9% which I wouldn't call great cash flow.
    VYM pays about 3.6%..BUT WAIT...The higher yield stock style investing must be debunked all the time. VYM trails the SP500 for YTD, 1, 3, 5, 10 years. VYM recovery was way behind. YTD: SP500=VFIAX made 14.7% more than VYM.
    I guess you missed the FAANGM and instead concentrated in higher income stocks (T???). Why not look at all stocks and select the best regardless of higher income.
    So, what is more important, higher income or higher total return? of course higher returns is better and what I have been practicing since the start, even at retirement.
    If I need more cash than my monthly dist (usually bond funds) I just sell some shares when I need to.
  • MetWest Flexible Income Fund - MWFEX, MWFSX
    MWFSX performance continues to lag and relates to lower daily distributions.
    Its performance for 1-4-12 weeks per M* Multi category is 85-97-88. Basically, it's in the bottom 15%-3%-12%.
    The last several distributions are:
    As of Date Ticker Dividend Rate Accumulated Dividend Rate
    8/9/2020 MWFSX 0.001256647 0.012160065
    8/8/2020 MWFSX 0.001256647 0.010903418
    8/7/2020 MWFSX 0.001256647 0.009646771
    8/6/2020 MWFSX 0.001189266 0.008390124
    8/5/2020 MWFSX 0.001149859 0.007200858
    8/4/2020 MWFSX 0.001163833 0.006050999
    8/3/2020 MWFSX 0.001201751 0.004887166
    Reminder: just several weeks ago in July the dist were 2-3 times higher.
    At 0.0012 per day it's about 4.4% annually. I'm taking it off my list.
  • Howard Marks - Time For Thinking
    I suspect, as one's time frame allows; most here always have a "time for thinking" about the investments. For me, this is a weekly (at a minimum) control and view period to observe "trends". At some point, I will not desire to do this and will have to choose an active managed fund(s) that I am comfortable with and bite my tongue when I see a missed opportunity in a particular equity or bond sector.
    For those so inclined, the investing table and ease of electronically investing has never been so complete to focus your investments within your risk tolerance.
    A recent example I posted is a 529 account that is 50/50 VITPX and VBMPX (note: moving money around is very restricted with a 529). Had this been a personal account of another form, I still would have felt comfortable holding this position, as the normal market function is to support bond prices if and when the equity side takes a big face slap, and the reverse of this. The case so far this year is with VITPX having a YTD of +4.7% and VBMPX at +8.1%. A pleasing +6.4% combo, YTD. "Thinking time" is part of this thought process (what sectors are changing, and why).
    Yes, indeed; time for thinking should be rewarding and part of one's "work" if you choose to remain an active individual investor.
    Note: I've never been a re-balance a portfolio once a year, just because it seems like the right thing to do (so-called pundit talk, eh?).
    Regards,
    Catch
  • Muni Yields Hit Lowest Since 1952 as Fiscal Crisis Tests a Haven
    https://www.advisorperspectives.com/articles/2020/08/05/muni-yields-hit-lowest-since-1952-as-fiscal-crisis-tests-a-haven?topic=covid-19-coronavirus-coverage
    Muni Yields Hit Lowest Since 1952 as Fiscal Crisis Tests a Haven
    by Amanda Albright, 8/5/20
    /America’s municipal bondholders have never been paid so little for taking on so much risk.
    The yields on state and local government bonds have steadily dwindled over the past month, even as the resurgent coronavirus pandemic is threatening to prolong the deep recession that’s dealing a financial setback to borrowers in virtually every corner of the $3.9 trillion market./
    Anyone buy more munis recently? Maybe one of safer bets out there. More may have jumped ship to munibonds
  • Trump extends unemployment payments, defers payroll tax
    "If I'm victorious on Nov. 3, I plan to forgive these taxes." This is buying votes, pure and simple. Apparently perfectly legal. Still, I find such crude quid pro quo odious:
    To quote Justice Brennan of the United States Supreme Court, in his 1982 majority opinion in Brown v. Hartlage (456 US 56):
    We have never insisted that the franchise be exercised without taint of individual benefit; indeed, our tradition of political pluralism is partly predicated on the expectation that voters will pursue their individual good through the political process, and that the summation of these individual pursuits will further the collective welfare. So long as the hoped for benefit is to be achieved through the normal processes of government, and not through some private arrangement, it has always been, and remains, a reputable basis upon which to cast one's ballot.
    To follow the terminology of Pamela Karlan (1994), the Constitution permits candidates to buy votes wholesale, from many voters with a single promise of political action, but not retail, from a single voter with a promise of a private side-payment.
    Kochin, Michael S., and Levis A. Kochin. "When Is Buying Votes Wrong?" Public Choice 97, no. 4 (1998): 645-62. Accessed August 9, 2020. http://www.jstor.org/stable/30024452.
  • Stock-market expert sees a ‘monstrous’ rally taking hold next week, if one recent trend holds
    Could surge 30%!? Seems unrealistic to me. As a counterweight I offer the editorial by Ian Bremmer from Time magazine: The Next Global Depression Is Coming and Optimism Won’t Slow It Down
    “This liquidity support (along with optimism about a vaccine) has boosted financial markets and may well continue to elevate stocks. But this financial bridge isn’t big enough to span the gap from past to future economic vitality because COVID-19 has created a crisis for the real economy. Both supply and demand have sustained sudden and deep damage. And it will become progressively harder politically to impose second and third lockdowns.”
  • Trump extends unemployment payments, defers payroll tax
    Would be nice to expand on this topic; but I continue to fall back to the aspect that Trump remains to be mentally impaired; as was apparent in his demeaning behavior just before and during his involvement in the Republican debate.
    He remains the most dangerous person in the world; and changes the scale of what I thought was wrong during the Vietnam era......1965-1975, and the ramifications for years to follow.
    Fini
  • Trump extends unemployment payments, defers payroll tax
    The winners and losers in a payroll tax cut are....
    This is from a Forbes article in Early May. (not behind a pay wall)
    Payroll Tax Cut Winners and Losers
  • Trump extends unemployment payments, defers payroll tax
    https://www.npr.org/2020/08/08/900516854/in-executive-actions-trump-extends-unemployment-benefits
    This would seem to have investing implications. I‘ve heard elsewhere that the payroll tax is suspended (oops - “deferred“) only for those earning less than $100,000 per year (last year’s tax return). My pension and SS don’t total that much, but I could easily bump up over that $100K with a substantial distribution from traditional IRA for a major expense. Suspect others are in a similar situation. Also, anyone doing a Roth conversion (or who did one last year) might push their reported income over $100K in the process and miss out on this latest perk. These knee-jerk tax policies set your head spinning.
    No idea how “deferring” payroll taxes until January is going to help anyone. Stimulate the economy & stock market until just past the election? ... Than let it rain (or something like that) on the next fella who takes over in January with the payroll tax having to double? Good grief.
  • Flexible portfolio alternatives to FPACX
    Assuming your investment platform (Fidelity, etc.) allows you numerous choices for purchase; and with some of the funds already mentioned above, part of the choice would be U.S. centered or global, too. I remain U.S. focused at this time.
    The below chart (started before added comments) contains mostly U.S. equity centered, balanced funds (moderate allocation, 50 - 70% equity).
    As to BRUFX mentioned above, this is only available via direct investment (postal) with Bruce and not through electronic choices on other platforms. My concern with Bruce at this time is the age of the managers (2), being 88 and 60; if my information is correct. As to DODBX, their recent lower performance is likely due to more exposure to non-U.S. holdings.
    Viewing the chart backwards for a number of years finds FPACX in the middle of the pack. Recent performance is apparently due to being a bit edgy with the market melt in February, which is understandable. The other funds in this list apparently maintained or added to the equity positions during and after the melt.
    Our accounts are with Fidelity and we have access to many moderate allocation funds, but I remain biased to FBALX , which has an annualized return of 9.4% since inception in 1986 and remains in the upper 90% of the nearly 700 similar funds . During this period, this fund has been through a lot of market swings, and most individual investors would be very pleased to have this long term performance.
    You could build your own with a 2 fund or etf combo of equity and bonds (ex. QQQ and AGG) OR a decent active managed equity and bond fund combo. While I remain biased to high quality bonds, their future may not persist as over the past 40 years. 'Course the death of bonds has been in place for quite awhile. But, if quality bonds lose their value in the coming years with a "build your own", the same lose of value would likely be reflected in an active managed, moderate allocation balanced fund, too. We have a 529 educational account we manage, which was started with and still maintains the same mix of 50/50, being VITPX and VBMPX. The 10 year annualized combined return is 8.8%. We'll take this performance without complaint.
    1 year chart of FPACX , JABAX , CTFAX , ABALX , FBALX , FPURX
    Strictly my opinions and viewpoints. There are many investment paths to follow.
    Regards,
    Catch
  • Are Your Stock, Bond, or Cash Allocations Out of Whack?
    Hi guys,
    I always enjoy reading Dr. Madell's newsletter. Recently, he started offering a free portfolio review for his readers. In this edition, he comments on some of the portfolio's he has reviewed. For me, this was an interesting read.
    As for my cash, bond and stock allocation ... My baseline asset allocation (being retired) is 20/40/40 with the ability to overweight (or underweight) my stock and bond areas by up to 5% each, if felt warranted. I generally let my cash allocation float. Curently, I'm 15/45/40 putting me 5% overweight in the bond (income) area of my portfolio due to low cash yields. I am presently neutral with my stock allocation eventhough I feel stocks are overbought. Within my stock allocation I'm about 50% value / 50% growth along with being about 65% domestic and 35% foreign. My investment foucs over the past five years, since I retired, has been to grow the income stream that my portfolio generates while at the same time continue to grow my principal to offset inflation. Thus far, I have grown (on average) income generation by about 15% a year and principal by about 8.5% a year.
    Old_Skeet
  • Flexible portfolio alternatives to FPACX
    Morningstar classifies FPACX as a 50-70 asset allocation fund. With this, there are many funds that are rated higher than FPACX, by M*, as it only carries two stars. Some flexible portfolio funds that I own are BAICX, CTFAX, PGBAX, JNBAX & GAOAX all of these being listed by MFO as flexible portfolio. There are possibly a few that I missed.
    Here is the link to the MFO Quick Search Tool. I am sure you will find something listed that betters FPACX. This is a tool that I often use in my review of funds, that I own, where I might be seeking another one. Enter your ticker symbol in the bottom left had corner under "fund symbols." You can enter up to five. After the fund profile appears click on flexible portfolio and you can then view the many flexible portfolio funds that appear along with their ratings. It is indeed a great tool. Thank you @Charles.
    https://www.member.mfopremium.com/quicksearch/
  • Flexible portfolio alternatives to FPACX
    In the same Morningstar category: PRWCX, if it ever opens up again to new investors. Check out BRUFX. (Same category, too.) A "flexible portfolio alternative?" I dunno quite what to make of that... A while ago, people were not happy with FPACX holding 15% in cash. Now it's almost 20%. I think the fund managers aren't buying because the Market is flying high. Stuff is expensive. By the way, the fixed income portion, I see, is rather small compared to peers right now. 22% foreign equities. You ARE looking for a CORE fund. Others: DODBX (Dodge & Cox.) VGSTX (Vanguard, but there has been some dissatisfaction with customer service at Vanguard reported here.)
  • Stock-market expert sees a ‘monstrous’ rally taking hold next week, if one recent trend holds
    https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.marketwatch.com/amp/story/stock-market-experts-sees-a-monstrous-rally-rally-taking-hold-next-week-if-one-recent-trend-holds-11596827276
    /Stock-market expert sees a ‘monstrous’ rally taking hold next week, if one recent trend holds
    Last Updated: Aug. 7, 2020 at 6:55 p.m. ET
    Could epicenter stocks surge by 30% next week? Fundstrat's Tom Lee thinks so. Getty Images
    The best start to an August for the U.S. stock market in years might get even better, as soon as next week, if the forecast from Thomas Lee, founder of Fundstrat Global Advisors, is accurate./
    Not sure if monstrous rally is coming, but DJI gained >36%% since the March crash.
    We have been buying qqq and vht/couple bio tech and Healthcare etf recently. Glad did not pull out to all cash few months back. Couple friends at work did this and missed the slow upward late spring summer rally
    If covid19 data improves/ stabilized next few weeks/month with minimal deaths economy may recover sooner than later
  • David’s August MFO Commentary ....Here!
    @msf,
    I always want to keep my options available for possible opportunities. Sterling Capital allowed Stratton Fund investors to open other "I" share class accounts once the Stratton accounts were consolidated under Sterling Capital moniker. A couple of exchanges from my rebranded Stratton fund allowed me to purchase "I" share class of Sterling Capital's Special Opportunities and Equity Income funds.
    If I remember correctly, Bridgeway Large Cap Value and Large Cap Growth funds were sold to American Beacon using their moniker (still managed by Bridgeway); however, you could not do an exchange of money from the American Beacon Bridgeway Large Cap Value or Large Cap Growth fund "I" share class into other American Beacon funds to receive their "I" share class equivalent.
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/916006/000119312511312700/d256598d497.htm (Bridgeway Large Cap Value reorganization).
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/916006/000119312516453235/d125121d497.htm (Bridgeway Large Cap Growth reorganization)
    American Beacon funds prospectus excerpt:
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/809593/000113322820001973/abf-html2217_485bpos.htm#chapter_5-sect1_2_2037
    Exchange Policies
    ...The eligibility and minimum investment requirement must be met for the class into which the shareholder is exchanging. Fund shares may be acquired through exchange only in U.S. states and Territories in which they can be legally sold. Each Fund reserves the right to charge a fee and to modify or terminate the exchange privilege at any time. Each Fund reserves the right to refuse exchange requests if, in the judgment of a Fund, the transaction would adversely affect a Fund and its shareholders. Please refer to the section titled "Frequent Trading and Market Timing" for information on the Funds' policies regarding frequent purchases, redemptions, and exchanges.
    It is possible that FPA may introduce a "I" share class of the Crescent fund. FPA plans to offer a "supra" institutional class of the Crescent fund which has an extremely high initial minimum:
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/924727/000110465920081174/a20-24082_1485apos.htm
    Who knows what will happen with FPA once their international funds (International Value and Paramount funds) are transferred.
  • Dodge & Cox Emerging Markets Stock Fund in registration
    I like the global balanced fund idea too.
    Vanguard offers two global balanced funds - Global Wellington, VGWLX, and Global Wellesley, VGWIX. Both funds started in 2017 and they are managed by the well respected sub-advisor, Wellington.
    Expense ratio: Global Wellesley, 0.42% (Investor class), 0.32% (Admiral class). Global Wellington, 0.46% (Investor class), 0.36% (Admiral class).
    Emerging market exposure: Global Wellington, 2.2% and Global Wellesley, 5.9%. True to Wellington conservative nature, they invested in Taiwan Semiconductor and Samsung in EM space.
  • David’s August MFO Commentary ....Here!
    RPIEX Thread from 1/12/20: https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/54925/what-s-a-bond-fund-like-this-doing-in-t-rowe-s-stable-rpiex
    My title - “What’s a bond fund like this doing in T Rowe’s stable?“
    Final comment (by @Crash) - “Ya, a loser like that is a rare exception in TRP. Glad I read this thread.
    To everyone who may have been misled - I’m sorry.