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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Your Home is Not an Investment
    https://inflationdata.com/articles/inflation-adjusted-prices/inflation-adjusted-housing-prices/
    Advantages of Buying a House: (Number 1 is the most important)
    1. A house is like a forced savings plan for people who normally aren’t in the habit of saving or investing.
    2. It uses “leverage” i.e. other people’s money to get more than you could afford by yourself so when home prices do go up you benefit much more. House leverage is much greater than it used to be with Government programs allowing you to borrow 95% of the value of the house. So if you put 5% down and the house goes up 5% you have doubled your money. Where if you had to put 100% down you would have only made 5%.
    3. You can build “sweat equity” by improving the house through your own labor (untaxed).
    4. Since you are paying it off over time you are using “cheaper dollars” due to inflation to pay off the mortgage.
    5. Houses are real assets (not paper) so their value tends to keep up with inflation.

    Disadvantages of Buying a House:

    1. Incidental costs can add up- Taxes, Insurance, Maintenance, HOA fees, etc.
    2. Leverage can work against you when house prices go down as they did in 2008 the devastation is much worse than if you owned the house outright.
    3. In times of deflation, you are paying your mortgage with “more expensive dollars” and the value of your house in dollars may be going down.
    4. Houses are not “liquid” it may take time to sell if you need to move.
    5. You lose a significant chunk of value (10-20%) when you sell due to transaction costs i.e. Real Estate agent commissions, inspections, government agency fees etc.
    ============
    FD: the above is the main reason I never bought RE as an investment. All our investments are in the market. I studied and practiced RE (I was a real estate appraiser) and came to a conclusion it is not for me. Too many complications(liquidity, tenants, moving parts) compared to mutual funds.
  • Ready For a Melt UP? Bears, It's Checkmate!
    BS or not, I have been using T/A successfully for about 20 years. T/A is only one part of my system. I never held a losing fund too long and since retirement in 2018 I didn't lose more than 1% from any last top. T/A just help me to be a better consistent discipline trader.
  • Your Home is Not an Investment
    I am in the final stages of selling a home that I have lived in for almost 35 years. Purchase price was $67K. Hoping to close at $277K, but those numbers are not the whole story.
    Home improvements (landscaping, additions, remodels, and replacement of original components have cost close to $100K plus interest over those years. Recent costs (getting the home ready for sale) were close to $25K. Property taxes collected by my town over 35 years were close to $150K. Insurance costs close to $30K. Mortgage interest (financed and refinance the property) costs totaled $100K.
    Had I rented instead of owned, my housing costs (average $1.2K / month over 35 years) would have been about $500K. So maybe...just maybe... "owning" (the bank owed the home most of the 35 years) my property was a break even proposition financially.
    Had I put $10K into VFINX 35 years ago (a portion of the 20% down payment on the $67K sale price I had to come up with) that investment would be worth $436K. If I had invested in the entire 20% ($14,400) it would have grown to $628K.
    https://portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio#analysisResults
    Interesting.
    Here's a conversation on the topic (at the 5 minute mark):
    For most people, your house is your biggest asset and also your biggest liability. So it’s understandable to think about the financial implications of the most significant purchase you’re ever going to make. But a home is about more than what you buy it for and what you think it will be worth in ten years.


  • Seeking Yield With Safety
    Lipper categories with low risk and moderate to high yields are listed. Top-ranked funds within the categories are listed.
    Over a thousand funds are ranked using Mutual Fund Observer Screens based on risk, risk-adjusted returns, quality, momentum and yield.
    Top-ranked funds from Charles Schwab, Fidelity, and Vanguard are listed as well as other mutual fund families, exchange traded funds and closed end funds.
    Funds with low risk and yields above 2% are highlighted.
    https://seekingalpha.com/article/4378592-seeking-yield-safety
  • How are your bond funds holding up?
    Of course, language is a constantly evolving mode of expression. This list might be of help in understanding VF’s communications.
    25 of the Most Popular Internet Acronyms
    AKA Also Known As
    BTW By the Way
    CYS Check Your Settings
    EOD End of Discussion
    TLGO The List Goes On
    LOL Laughing Out Loud
    HF Have Fun
    ROTFL Rolling on the Floor Laughing
    YMMD You Made My Day
    OT Off Topic
    YAM Yet Another Meeting
    LNT Leave No Trace
    DTP Disturbing The Peace
    DNA Deoxyribonucleic Acid, Did Not Attend, Does Not Apply
    KIG Keep It Gangsta
    AYT Are You There?
    WYM Watch Your Mouth, What You Mean?
    LMK Let Me Know
    LI Laughing Inside
    WDYWFM What Do You Want From Me?
    NGU Never Give Up
    HBY How About You?
    IMMD It Made My Day
    LBNL Last But Not Least
    LYLT Love You Long Time
    Source: https://blog.talk.edu/learn-english/25-popular-internet-acronyms/
    Not on list - But I took AFAIC to mean “as far as I’m concerned.”
    I haven’t had time to look at Bonds (the non-investable one) but will be sure to do so. Just uncovered a trove of old JB movies OADSOITG.
  • Observation - A tale of two markets (no links)
    Broadly speaking, value funds can be put into two different categories: absolute value and relative value. Absolute value funds look at individual stocks, estimate their intrinsic value (how much the company should be worth based on assets, projected earnings, etc.) and buys stocks of "undervalued" companies. Relative value funds look at individual stocks and rather than comparing them with an "absolute" sense of value, compare them to how the rest of the market is priced. They buy stocks of companies that are "relatively" cheap.
    DSENX differs in two ways. First, it looks at entire sectors, not individual stocks. More importantly, it compares a given sector with its own prior valuations. It could look at a sector that is usually in the ionosphere (very high growth), note that it is now "merely" in the stratosphere, and thus a good "value". It's a different way of trying to buy low, sell high - where "low" means low relative to past pricing of the sector, as opposed to low relative to the current price of the market.
    I wouldn't expect it to give one a lot of exposure to stocks that are cheap on an absolute basis (because it can buy high flying sectors), so in that sense it could satisfy your interest in not going all in on deep value. OTOH, I'm not sure how much it would lean toward value for the same reason. It's a slow motion market timing (sector rotation) fund that rotates based on a sector valuation standard. Might work in a market rotating toward value (in the traditional stock by stock sense), can't say. It could also rotate away from traditional value sectors as they appreciate (in a market move toward value).
    Also, keep in mind that this is effectively a leveraged fund. For every dollar you invest, you get $1 worth of exposure to the underlying index plus $1 worth of exposure to the bond market. Works well if both are going up (or even if the bond portion is fairly flat).
  • U.S. Wind and Solar Installations Are Smashing Records, but the Trend May Not Last
    @Mark I was considering BEP, TERP, & HASI last fall. The depth and breadth of BEP interested me the most. (I also have an investment in BIPC (formerly BIP) and am comfortable with Brookfield.) But, BEP had rallied ~15% in the prior quarter and TERP had fallen ~15% (at least in part due to market reaction to a share offering). It just looked like a better entry point for TERP. And, in this case, it led me where I really wanted to wind up anyway. (Interesting note. BEPC is up 50% since it was created and BEP is "only" up 25% in that time per StockCharts. Is that simply the market's "no K-1" premium for that space?! Will it endure?)
  • Observation - A tale of two markets (no links)
    Brian Rogers was also the first manager of T. Rowe Price Value fund (TRVLX). He managed it for nearly a decade. Over that span, TRVLX returned a total of 154%, while PRFDX returned 121%. That's about a 2% difference per year. Even back then PRFDX had lost a bit of its shine. It was still outperforming its peers, but not its benchmark Russell 1000 Value.

    M* comparison chart

    (I'm still waiting for some life out of value, but hedging my bets.)
  • Observation - A tale of two markets (no links)
    It’s amazing how wide the gap is this year between value and growth. Once upon a time Price’s Equity Income fund PRFDX was their flagship equity offering. It’s one of their oldest funds. For many years it was headed by the very capable Brian Rogers, something of a media celebrity in his day. The fund holds a lot of income producing companies and tilts toward value. It’s off a whopping 12.4% YTD. and has stumbled badly for years now. By contrast, Vanguard’s S&P index fund, VFINX is ahead YTD by 9.11% YTD. That’s a gap of about 21% YTD between the two funds. Even crazier, Price’s Blue Chip TRBCX is up 29.3% this year for a YTD difference of more than 40% between the two funds. Absolutely amazing.
    I think this all means something important for us to consider, but I’m not sure what. Smarter people than me can chime in. I got my numbers from Lipper and believe them to be accurate. If you own Price’s diversified income fund, RPSIX, and are wondering why it’s only ahead by 1% YTD, look no further than PRFDX which it holds at generally around a 12% weighting (but it varies).
    Disclaimer - I do not own any of the 3 mentioned equity funds and haven’t for at least 5 years. I do, however, own RPSIX.
  • U.S. Wind and Solar Installations Are Smashing Records, but the Trend May Not Last
    Me too regarding hopes for the future. Regarding the recent trend in renewables, I initiated a position in TERP on 12/30/19 and made additional investments during Q1 of 2020. It was merged into BEPC during the summer. The return to date on that investment is 105% plus dividends. image That jump will probably not be repeated in the near future, but I have no plans to sell. (The results of the upcoming election will partially shape the investment outlook going forward for the U.S.)
  • PIMCO sees low-return environment likely for next 3-5 years
    Unfortunately most retirees I know including myself don't want to increase volatility and/or use cash + alternatives. The only choice most have are bond funds.
    I have looked for alternative for years and couldn't find any that proved to be a good consistent one for years.
    In my case as a trader, I'm at over 99% in bonds most times but trades riskier stuff for hours-days several times annually. The results are much better than my specific goals (making 6% annually, never lose 3% from any last top, SD < 3).
    For someone who is not a trader and still want to have bond funds, they may look beyond "simple" bond funds. PIMIX used to be a great one and it's still OK but other funds may be PTIAX,TSIIX(both multi) + MNCPX(Non Trad) + HY Munis(VWALX).
    Another good choice is a fund like PRWCX where the manager have been using flexible approach.
    I prefer VCORX or BIV over BSV, a bit more volatility but much better returns (chart)
    VCOR is not a near cash vehicle. BSV is, and also is inversely correlated to the market, making it a good choice to combine with near cash positions that do better but are correlated to the market (a bit) like GILPX and THIIX. In a balanced basket there is a very low probability of losing significant dollars, and they should materially outperform something like a high yield on line savings account (in the .70%-.80 range these days).
  • Battery Technology Trends
    The 20's will be full of interesting new innovations:
    INTRODUCING ONE OF THE FASTEST ELECTRODE FOR BATTERIES IN THE WORLD

  • How are your bond funds holding up?
    You can read my bond thread for ideas (link)
    Higher rated bonds (core + core plus) + Munis are not doing well for 1-4 months.
    The best bond funds are specializing in securitized/MBS. You can most in the Multi category but also in Non Trad
  • How are your bond funds holding up?
    Mine:
    PTIAX dropped measurably at the beginning of the week. Holding even on the last two or three days. PRSNX and RPSIX have risen nicely, this week. For not any reason I can figure out. Particularly given the political turmoil.
    27 US stocks
    8 foreign stocks
    57 bonds of all sorts
    PTIAX 7.82 of portf.
    PRSNX 20.99
    RPSIX 26.51
    retired, 66. pretty happy with my funds. Wife has one fund, Trad. IRA: BRUFX.
    Everything else is concentrated in 6 funds. PRWCX holds 31.48 % of portf, including BRUFX.
  • AMG Managers Cadence Emerging Companies Fund reorganized into AMG GW&K Intl Small Cap Fund
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/720309/000119312520266471/d46556d497k.htm
    AMG Managers Cadence Emerging Companies Fund
    Supplement dated October 8, 2020 to the Summary Prospectus, dated October 1, 2020
    The following information supplements and supersedes any information to the contrary relating to AMG Managers Cadence Emerging Companies Fund (the “Fund”), a series of AMG Funds III (the “Trust”), contained in the Fund’s Summary Prospectus (the “Summary Prospectus”), dated as noted above.
    At a meeting held on October 8, 2020 (the “Meeting”), the Trust’s Board of Trustees (the “Board”) approved the appointment of GW&K Investment Management, LLC (“GW&K” or the “Subadviser”) as the subadviser to the Fund on an interim basis to replace Cadence Capital Management LLC (“Cadence”), effective October 8, 2020 (the “Implementation Date”). The appointment of GW&K was pursuant to an interim subadvisory agreement between AMG Funds LLC (“AMGF”) and GW&K (the “Interim Subadvisory Agreement”), to be effective until the earlier of 150 days after the termination of the former subadvisory agreement between AMGF and Cadence with respect to the Fund (the “Former Subadvisory Agreement”), which occurred on October 8, 2020, or the approval of a new subadvisory agreement between AMGF and GW&K by the Board and Fund shareholders. At the Meeting, the Board also approved the longer-term appointment of GW&K as the subadviser to the Fund, a new subadvisory agreement between AMGF and GW&K (the “New Subadvisory Agreement”), and the submission of the New Subadvisory Agreement to Fund shareholders for approval. The rate of compensation to be received by GW&K under the Interim Subadvisory Agreement approved by the Board is the same rate of compensation that Cadence would have received under the Former Subadvisory Agreement.
    In connection with the hiring of GW&K, effective as of the Implementation Date, the Fund (i) changed its name from AMG Managers Cadence Emerging Companies Fund to AMG GW&K International Small Cap Fund, (ii) made changes to its investment objective, principal investment strategies and principal risks, and (iii) replaced its existing benchmark index with the MSCI World ex USA Small Cap Index.
    In addition, effective as of the Implementation Date, the Summary Prospectus is amended as follows:
    All references to the name of AMG Managers Cadence Emerging Companies Fund shall refer to AMG GW&K International Small Cap Fund.
    The section titled “Investment Objective” on page 1 is deleted and replaced with the following:...
    Also from AMG website,
    https://www.amgfunds.com/products/gwk_international_small_cap_fund_mecax.html
    Fund Notice:
    Effective October 8, 2020, the subadviser of AMG Managers Cadence Emerging Companies Fund (the “Fund”) changed from Cadence Capital Management LLC to GW&K Investment Management, LLC (“GW&K”). The appointment of GW&K is pursuant to an interim subadvisory agreement in anticipation of shareholder approval of a definitive subadvisory agreement. Also effective October 8, 2020, the Fund changed its name to AMG GW&K International Small Cap Fund and changed its investment objective, principal investment strategies and principal risks. For more information regarding these and other changes to the Fund, please see the Fund’s prospectus.