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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Investors face ‘a scary, out-of-whack’ scenario
    In a similar vein, here are a couple excerpts from something I just read:
    "It seems like we have dodged a bullet, yet a look under the surface reveals a much sicker market....the S&P 500 is still down 1.88%, but TPA's BIGTECH Index (the top 8 stock in the NASDAQ 100 by market cap) is up an astonishing 48.99% year to date (YTD)....these 8 stocks represent $8 trillion in market cap, which is 29% of the market cap of the S&P 500 ($27.3 trillion). TPA ran the numbers to see just what effect these 8 stocks have had on an index of 500 stocks. The BIGTECH effect has been to add 8.71% of performance to the S&P 500 YTD.
    image
    From: This Is Nuts... Again. Reducing Risk As Tech Goes 1999
    https://seekingalpha.com/article/4357982-this-is-nuts-again-reducing-risk-tech-goes-1999?utm_medium=email&utm_source=seeking_alpha&mail_subject=must-read-this-is-nuts-again-reducing-risk-as-tech-goes-1999&utm_campaign=nl-must-read&utm_content=link-0
  • How Did Members First Find MFO? IOW What Got You Here?
    If I had a dollar for every time msf has been found to be incorrect I'd now have a grand total of about 25¢.
  • 10 Best-Performing ETFs of 2020
    You did look at what this list comprises, right? Of course you did.
    Because it seemed wack to post something like this in a sensible forum like this. What is the point? JN does this kind of thing automatically, like a headline-based bot.
    Perhaps the monthly commentary should have a section on leveraged ETFs and CEFs and such, where you can lose 70% ytd, as @Rbrt points out, or make 50% in two-plus weeks. Whaddaya think?
  • What’s next after market surge?
    http://mobile.royalgazette.com/bryan-dooley/article/20200713/whats-next-after-market-surge&template=mobileart
    What’s next after market surge?
    Jul 13, 2020 at 11:02 am
    Bouncing back: stock markets including the New York Stock Exchange rebounded strongly during the second quarter
    Due largely to unprecedented government stimulus programmes, global markets recovered strongly in the second quarter. The S&P 500 gained 20.54 per cent while the MSCI World Index recovered 19.57 per cent, marking the best quarterly performance is 1998. Initial gains in the consumer staples and healthcare sectors were followed by a recovery in consumer discretionary stocks. Meanwhile, information technology remained a bright spot as the Nasdaq touched a new all-time high.
    Got article from friend.
    Reasonable assumptions and input regarding current market conditions...maybe good to consider adding to health care and biotechnology & tech for near future and intermediate longer terms
  • Hedging for election cancellation and/or refusal to leave
    All rather useless speculation and panic. Having known many high ranking military folks ( Colonel and above), I am confident that they love their country and the democracy and while they will tell you they will follow "legitimate" Presidential orders, when Trump looses, they will not follow his orders after 12:01 January 20th
    Espey's recent comments and extreme reluctance to get involved int he protests shows that even Trump loyalists see to have a higher standard than "Donald told me to do it"
    I think that is why Roberts has been such a centrist and so carefully crafted compromise 7-2 opinions recently rather than 5-4. He knows the Court's credibility is at stake and once it looses the confidence of the public nothing it does anymore matters.
  • Hedging for election cancellation and/or refusal to leave
    She needs to be tried and convicted first. I doubt that will happen before 45 is run out of office.
  • Charles de Lardemelle is leaving IVA Fiduciary Trust
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1437921/000094937720000245/iva_497.htm
    497 1 iva_497.htm
    IVA FIDUCIARY TRUST
    IVA Worldwide Fund
    IVA International Fund
    Supplement dated July 13, 2020 to the
    Summary Prospectuses, Prospectus and Statement of Additional Information,
    each dated January 31, 2020 for the IVA Worldwide Fund and IVA International Fund
    (together, the “Funds”)
    This supplement updates information in the Summary Prospectuses, Prospectus and Statement of Additional Information of the IVA Fiduciary Trust (the “Trust”), each dated January 31, 2020. You may obtain copies of the Summary Prospectuses, Prospectus and Statement of Additional Information free of charge, upon request, by calling the toll-free number (866) 941-4482 or by visiting the Trust’s website at www.ivafunds.com.
    Effective July 13, 2020, Charles de Lardemelle is no longer a portfolio manager of the Funds. All references to Mr. de Lardemelle are hereby removed from the Summary Prospectuses, Prospectus and Statement of Additional Information.
    Charles de Vaulx remains primarily responsible for the day-to-day management of the Funds and serves as Chief Investment Officer of the Adviser.
  • Why Own T-Bills?
    Thanks for the post,info @catch22. I took a look at Vanguards tip, VIPSX. YTD shows 6.54% as compared to LTPZ at 18%. Would the difference in return be do to duration ?
    Thanks , Derf
  • Why Own T-Bills?
    Some type of bond is likely a part of your portfolio, whether a direct investment into a sector or a mix in an income or allocation fund.
    I'll place this list again for a view of performance YTD (about mid-year for 2020). You may choose to review this bond list (copy/paste to your own document) periodically as a reference to performance. I don't anticipate updating this list. Pricing performance is where the gains or losses take place. I'm not attempting to find or chase a high yield. My preference is that a given bond area has a declining yield to provide for a likely increase in the price.
    A few views from bondland, for AAA rated bonds:
    JULY 10 WEEK / YTD
    --- MINT = - .05% / +.9% (Pimco Enhanced short maturity)
    --- SHY = - 02% / +2.9% (UST 1-3 yr bills)
    --- IEI = + .0% /+5.2% (UST 3-7 yr notes/bonds)
    --- IEF = +1.5% /+6.9% (UST 7-10 yr bonds)
    --- TIP = +.2% / +6.6% (UST Tips, 3-10 yrs duration, some 20+ yr duration)
    --- LTPZ = +.6% / + 18% (UST, long duration TIPs bonds
    --- TLT = +1.7% /+23.8% (20+ Yr UST Bond
    --- EDV = -2.5% / +31.6% (UST Vanguard extended duration bonds)
    --- ZROZ = +2.8% /+33.8% (UST., AAA, long duration zero coupon bonds)
    ***Other, for reference, not AAA rated:
    --- HYG = +.4 / -3.7% (high yield bonds, proxy ETF)
    --- LQD = +.6% / +7.8% (corp. bonds, various quality)
    I have also previously noted that EDV, TLT and ZROZ can be very hot potatoes to manage and require a close watch and what may adjust their directions.
    ***** It's not what you look at that matters, it's what you see. *****
    Henry David Thoreau

    Please alert me as to any errors.
    NOTE: our portfolio at this time is fully tax sheltered investments and with this; we don't have concern with the taxable status of distributions or buys and sells in this area.
    Take care,
    Catch
  • FPA New Income, Inc. limited availability to new investors as of August 1, 2020
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/99203/000110465920082874/tm2024548-1_497seq.htm
    ...Effective August 1, 2020, the following is added to the front page of the Prospectus:
    Fund shares are presently offered for sale only to existing shareholders and to directors, officers and employees
    of the Fund, the Fund’s Adviser, First Pacific Advisors, LP, and affiliated companies, and their immediate
    relatives, and certain categories of shareholders.
    Effective August 1, 2020, the section titled “Purchase and Sale of Fund Shares” on page 8 is replaced in its entirety with the following:
    Purchase and Sale of Fund Shares
    The Fund has discontinued indefinitely the sale of its shares to new investors, except existing shareholders, directors, officers and employees of the Fund, the Adviser and affiliated companies, and their immediate relatives. See the section entitled “Limited Availability to New Investors” for a description of shareholders eligible to purchase shares of the Fund. Investors may purchase or redeem Fund shares on any business day by written request, check, wire, ACH (Automated Clearing House), telephone, or through dealers as further described in this prospectus. You may conduct transactions by mail (FPA Funds, c/o UMB Fund Services, Inc., P.O. Box 2175, Milwaukee, Wisconsin 53201-2175, or 235 West Galena Street, Milwaukee, Wisconsin 53212), by wire, or by telephone at (800) 638-3060. Purchases and redemptions by telephone are only permitted if you previously established this option in your account. Eligible investors can use the Account Application for initial purchases.
    Eligible investors can purchase shares by contacting any investment dealer authorized to sell the Fund’s shares. The minimum initial investment is $1,500, and each subsequent investment, which can be made directly to UMB Fund Services, Inc., must be at least $100. However, as described herein, no minimum investment amount is imposed for subsequent investments in retirement plans. All purchases made by check should be in U.S. dollars and made payable to the FPA Funds. Third party, starter or counter checks will not be accepted. A charge may be imposed if a check does not clear. The Fund reserves the right to waive or lower purchase and investment minimums in certain circumstances. For example, the minimums listed above may be waived or lowered for investors who are customers of certain financial intermediaries that hold the Fund’s shares in certain omnibus accounts, at the discretion of the officers of the Fund. In addition, financial intermediaries may impose their own minimum investment and subsequent purchase amounts.
    Subsequent investments and redemptions can be made directly to UMB Fund Services, Inc.
    Effective August 1, 2020, the following is added at the beginning of the section titled “Investing with the Fund” on page 23:
    LIMITED AVAILABILITY TO NEW INVESTORS
    The availability of shares of the Fund to new investors is limited. The Fund has discontinued indefinitely the sale of its shares to new investors, except existing shareholders, directors, officers and employees of the Fund, the Adviser and affiliated companies, and their immediate relatives. Affiliated companies include: current and former directors, officers and employees of the Adviser (and its predecessor firm and such predecessor firm’s parent firms) and its affiliates; current and former directors of, and partners and employees of legal counsel to, the investment companies advised by the Adviser; investment advisory clients of the Adviser and consultants to such clients and their directors, officers and employees; employees (including registered representatives) of a dealer that has a selling group agreement with UMB Distribution Services, LLC and consents to the purchases; any employee benefit plan maintained for the benefit of such qualified investors; directors, officers and employees of a company whose employee benefit plan holds shares of one or more of the FPA Funds; and directors, officers and employees of the Fund’s custodian and transfer agent.
    In addition, the Fund will allow new investors to purchase shares if they fall into one of the following categories:
    1. Clients of an institutional consultant, a financial advisor, a financial planner, or an affiliate of a financial advisor or financial planner, who has client assets invested with the Fund or the Adviser at the time of the investor’s application;
    2. Investors purchasing Fund shares through a sponsored fee-based program where shares of the Fund are made available to that program pursuant to an agreement with FPA Funds or UMB Distribution Services, LLC, and FPA Funds or UMB Distribution Services, LLC has notified the sponsor of that program, in writing, that shares may be offered through such program and has not withdrawn that notification;
    3. Investors transferring or “rolling over” into a Fund IRA from an employee benefit plan through which the investor held shares of the Fund (if an investor’s plan doesn’t qualify for rollovers an investor may still open a new account with all or part of the proceeds of a distribution from the plan);
    4. Investors that are an employee benefit plan or other type of corporate or charitable account sponsored by or affiliated with an organization that also sponsors or is affiliated with (or is related to an organization that sponsors or is affiliated with) another employee benefit plan or corporate or charitable account that is a shareholder of the Fund; or
    5. Investors participating in an employee benefit plan that is already a Fund shareholder.
    The Fund may ask you to verify that you meet one of the categories above prior to permitting you to open a new account in the Fund. The Fund may permit you to open a new account if the Fund reasonably believes that you are eligible. The Fund also may decline to permit you to open a new account if the Fund believes that doing so would be in the best interests of the Fund and its shareholders, even if you would be eligible to open a new account under these guidelines.
    The Fund’s ability to impose the guidelines above with respect to accounts held by financial intermediaries may vary depending on the systems capabilities of those intermediaries, applicable contractual and legal restrictions and cooperation of those intermediaries.
    The Fund continues to reinvest dividends and capital gain distributions with respect to the accounts of existing shareholders who elect such options.
    The Fund may recommence at any time the offering of shares to all investors if the Board of Directors believes it would be in the best interests of the Fund and its shareholders.
    Federal regulations may require the Fund to obtain your name, your date of birth (for a natural person), your residential street address or principal place of business and your Social Security Number, Employer Identification Number or other government issued identification when you open an account. Additional information may be required in certain circumstances or to open accounts for corporations or other entities, and certain information regarding beneficial ownership will be verified, including information about beneficial owners of such entities. The Fund may use this information to attempt to verify your identity and, for legal entities, the identity of beneficial owners. The Fund may not be able to establish an account if the necessary information is not received. The Fund may also place limits on account transactions while it is in the process of attempting to verify your identity and, for legal entities, the identity of beneficial owners. Additionally, if the Fund is unable to verify the identity of you or your beneficial owners after your account is established, the Fund, the Fund's distributor and the Fund's transfer agent each reserve the right to reject further purchase orders from you or to take such other action as they deem reasonable or required by law, including closing your account. If your account is closed for this reason, your shares will be redeemed at the NAV next calculated on the date your account is closed, and you bear the risk of loss.
    Effective August 1, 2020, the section titled “How to Buy Fund Shares” on page 25 of the Prospectus is hereby deleted in its entirety.
    PLEASE RETAIN FOR FUTURE REFERENCE.
    FPA New Income, Inc. (FPNIX)
    Supplement dated July 13, 2020 to the
    Statement of Additional Information dated January 31, 2020
    This Supplement amends information in the Statement of Additional Information (the “SAI”) for the FPA New Income, Inc. (the “Fund”), dated January 31, 2020. You should retain this Supplement and the Prospectus for future reference. Additional copies of the SAI may be obtained free of charge by visiting our web site at www.fpa.com or calling us at (800) 638-3060.
    Effective August 1, 2020, on page 50 of the SAI, the following language is added to the section titled “Purchase, Redemption and Pricing of Shares”:
    Limited Availability to New Investors. The availability of shares of the Fund to new investors is limited. See the section titled, “Limited Availability to New Investors” in the Prospectus for a complete description of categories of shareholders eligible to purchase shares of the Fund.
    The Fund continues to accept additional investments from existing shareholders, and continues to reinvest dividends and capital gain distributions with respect to the accounts of existing shareholders who elect such options.
    The Fund may recommence at any time the offering of shares to all investors if the Board of Directors believes it would be in the best interests of the Fund and its shareholders.
    PLEASE RETAIN FOR FUTURE REFERENCE.
  • How Did Members First Find MFO? IOW What Got You Here?
    I think I found it after trying to figure out where an M* writer got off to.
    Mike Lee? Stan Lee? Used to cover ETF's at M*. Wrote a couple of pieces here.
    I don't follow ETF's. But I always enjoyed reading his stuff.

    I believe you are referring to Sam Lee who is a talented writer. Like you, I also enjoyed reading his articles. After he left Morningstar, he founded SVRN Asset Management.
  • Investors face ‘a scary, out-of-whack’ scenario
    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/investors-face-a-scary-out-of-whack-scenario-just-look-at-this-chart-2020-07-12
    Investors face ‘a scary, out-of-whack’ scenario — just look at this chart
    ‘Just as these stocks pulled up the entire market, they can pull down the entire market by their sheer weight’
    Where we're headed, nobody knows.
    AAPL
    +0.24%
    MSFT
    -0.30%
    AMZN
    +0.54%
    GOOG
    +2.03%
    FB
    +0.23%
    DJIA
    +1.43%
    If it weren’t for the “Giant 5,” your money would have been better off sitting in cash than the stock market over the past few years, according to Wolf Richter of the Wolf Street blog.
    The Giant with moderate gains recently,
    Interesting chart
    Wondering if tech downfalls soon follow
  • 10 Best-Performing ETFs of 2020
    duh
    why are you posting this, ffs ?
    yes, if I bought $10k of XVZ on March 1, when the whiffs of covid19 were rapidly spreading in the media, and sold them on the 18th, I woulda made $15k!
    who did that? who does that? what is your point in posting this?
    if I had sold them anytime in the last 3mos I woulda only doubled my money.
    hmm, I wonder what the takeaway is from all of that.
    apart from how to decompress after long days of working in the hc trenches. - ?
  • Hedging for election cancellation and/or refusal to leave
    Anyone else pondering this risk?
    Yes. I’ve pondered it since roughly November 9, 2016. But I ponder a whole lot of things. Folks ponder all sorts of solutions to vexing issues. So the options Larry tossed out are no doubt being considered by some. He left out shifting to foreign equities / currencies which some (self included) have also pursued.
    Gold often reacts to fear, Some of the run-up in price from around $1500 to today’s $1800 over the past 2 years has likely been influenced by the fear Larry voiced. But gold is an extremely thin market. Easy for the big players to manipulate. And it can turn on a dime. Just when you think you understand why it’s behaving the way it is, it will turn on you and make you an idiot. I think it will continue moving higher the next several months or longer and draw in a lot of new (unsuspecting) money. But as demonstrated back in March, it’s fully capable of falling 15-20% in a matter of days and taking down the miners along with it. And in a real bear market, it can be a “white knuckle” ride you won’t soon forget.
    Here’s a vexing dilemma. Say you buy those hedges which are rising (and have been for some time) out of political anxiety. Then, surprisingly, the perceived “problem“ fails to materialize (crisis averted). What do you think is going to happen to the value of those hedges? While theoretically cash can’t fall in (nominal) value, should other alternatives (like equities) surge ahead while you’re sitting in cash you have, effectively, held a losing position. All motion is relative. :)
  • The S&P 500 will fall 8% by the end of 2020, according to BOA CHIEF
    @Old_Skeet: SHE was just repeating long discredited anti-Democratic blather. Forbes, that well-known anti-capitalist organ of the Democratic Party, has a different take. Some excerpts from a Forbes article on the subject:

    Looking at ... total returns for the S&P 500 during presidencies since 1929, it is clear that U.S. stock returns have been much better when a Democrat was the president; however, it would be a mistake to conclude that stock returns were higher because a Democrat held the presidency.
    There is no conclusive evidence suggesting the president’s party has any statistically significant impact on U.S. equity market returns. Intuitively this makes sense, because stock returns are influenced by a myriad of factors such as valuations, corporate profits, business cycles, monetary policy, etc. In addition, the increasingly global economy (the S&P 500 generates more than 50% of revenues outside the U.S.) makes the actions of a single government less important.
    The stock market is a complex adaptive system in which cause and effect are not easy to link. Market movements, particularly over short periods such as a presidential term (yes, four years is a short-term investment period), are random.

    But a word from the White House: This is just more PHONY FAKE NEWS from Forbe's with their long history of promoting left-wing hate-America HOAXES. They should go back wherever they came from since they obviously don't like it here.
    @Old_Skeet- I was afraid that you might be uncomfortable with the actual facts as mentioned by Forbes, so I included a softened-down Trumpian rant to make you feel a little more at home.
  • 10 Best-Performing ETFs of 2020

    https://money.usnews.com/investing/etfs/slideshows/best-performing-etfs
    10 Best-Performing ETFs of 2020
    In the first half of the year, volatility funds and internet plays soared.
    Amplify Online Retail ETF (IBUY)
    ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK)
    O'Shares Global Internet Giants ETF (OGIG)
    ARK Next Generation Internet ETF (ARKW)
    ProShares Long Online/Short Stores ETF (CLIX)
    WisdomTree Cloud Computing Fund (WCLD)
    ARK Genomic Revolution ETF (ARKG)
    ProShares VIX Mid-Term Futures ETF (VIXM)
    iPath S&P 500 Dynamic VIX ETN (XVZ)
    iPath Series B S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN (VXX)
  • The S&P 500 will fall 8% by the end of 2020, according to BOA CHIEF
    Hi guys, I'm thinking that he might be somewhat right in making this call. Remember, in the last election what was considered a business and economy friendly candicate was elected President. If memory is correct, the S&P 500 Index was up nicely after the November election which Trump won even before Trump took office. If it is viewed that an unfriendly business and economy candicate might get elected President then why would it not stand to reason that the markets might be in for a good pull back? Besides the S&P 500 Index's valuation being streached as I write with a TTM P/E Ratio of about 30; and, the outcome of the upcoming Presidential election being uncertain is another reason that Old_Skeet is trimming his equity allocation. Plus, there is the COVA 19 issue as well.
    To play it from a conserative approach ... I trimmed some from my equity allocation this past week and I plan to trim some more in the coming weeks.