related -
Vaccinations perspectives
maybe too soon too early
[but we may not have many options unless herd immunity happens]
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMp2029479?query=TOC
Up Is Down — Pharmaceutical Industry Caution vs. Federal Acceleration of Covid-19 Vaccine Approval
List of authors.Jerry Avorn, M.D.,
and Aaron S. Kesselheim, M.D., J.D., M.P.H.
Nine pharmaceutical company leaders took the unprecedented step on September 8, 2020, of stating that they would refuse to apply for approval of a Covid-19 vaccine until adequate trial data are available.1 This announcement reflected an unusual role reversal at a time of unexpected regulatory anomalies. For decades, manufacturers have criticized the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) for being too slow and demanding too much evidence before approving new products. But in the face of growing public concern that the federal government might push forward release of a Covid-19 vaccine despite inadequate evidence, these roles seem to have reversed.

Since that awful time in March, I've never used MultiSearch and Portfolios tools more.
I find myself setting the Display to periods before March (like Trump Bump, Obama Bull, GFC Bull), to see which funds performed best in last bull market.
I'll also set Ferguson ratings, looking for that sweet-spot Brad defined of performance and consistency.
As well as Alpha and Tracking Error ratings (thank you Michael).
I'll save the resulting funds (symbols) to a Watchlist, then run them across current cycle or YTD to see how bad the damage could be ... and if they're old enough, across GFC Bear. Similarly, across December 2018 Selloff and Normalization (of interest rates) periods.
c

It's a wonderful resource. And I tout it every chance I can.
It was helpful picking my shopping list in March. And I expect to be using it quite a bit as I reflect on our holdings between now and the end of the year rebalancing.

Since that awful time in March, I've never used MultiSearch and Portfolios tools more.
I find myself setting the Display to periods before March (like Trump Bump, Obama Bull, GFC Bull), to see which funds performed best in last bull market.
I'll also set Ferguson ratings, looking for that sweet-spot Brad defined of performance and consistency.
As well as Alpha and Tracking Error ratings (thank you Michael).
I'll save the resulting funds (symbols) to a Watchlist, then run them across current cycle or YTD to see how bad the damage could be ... and if they're old enough, across GFC Bear. Similarly, across December 2018 Selloff and Normalization (of interest rates) periods.
c

Here’s Yardeni’s optimistic view: https://www.yardeni.com/pub/yriearningsforecast.pdf
It’s also interesting to look at the estimated sector earnings here: https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/documents/additional-material/sp-500-eps-est.xlsx?force_download=true
Seems to me the stock & bond markets can be totally divorced from Main Street. Certainly now that there is always the Fed put. Which is to Sa the Fed will always stop the markets from falling. Years ago I believed folk like David Stockman who said a day of reckoning was coming. Now I’m more inclined to believe FD1K.

5.9% is not unusual as a top 10 holdings and often that is without the limits set forth in the prospectus. When it gets over 10%, the managers better has a lots of conviction that the stock will go up. Just keep watching to see if the manager will trim the position if Amazon continues to climb. Focus or concentrated funds often have the top 10 holdings that constitute over 50% of the funds.

I'm not real happy about PRBLX holding a 5.9% stake in Amazon.

If you're not happy about what a fund is holding, then don't invest with the fund..... The whole purpose of investing in a fund is because you have confidence in that manager's ability.

I’d be more inclined to sell rather than buy today. Haven’t yet set aside my anticipated 2021 distribution, which is my my preferred method. Normally, that $$, or a large portion would be parked in cash by now. That omission is mainly because I don’t know how much, if any, will be spent on travel next year. Without travel (and any big ticket items) the pension and SS are pretty much adequate. Of course, RMD will need to be taken in ‘21. But with close to 70% under a Roth, RMDs on the remaining aren’t too large.
Remain a bit underweight on cash. What I look for for short term speculation are funds that appear well managed and invested in things that are badly beaten down and appear to have good upside potential. My math isn’t so great. But I’d think if you dumped $$ Into an equity fund that’s off 50% or more over the past year and it bounced to “only“ being down 25% in short order, you’d have pocketed a quick 25% gain - even though the fund is still underwater. I’m always on the lookout for such opportunities. Sparse pickings at present.
I’m not seeing “dark shadows on the ceiling”, but do feel somewhat mesmerized by all that’s happening both politically and on the monetary end (Fed policy). Hard to get a solid bearing. But even without all that extraneous stuff going on, election years tend to favor equities. A motto of sort: “When in doubt, do nothing.“ So currently just a lot of sitting and looking. Where might someone go hunting if eager to buy? A lot of the foreign developed markets and EM have lagged the U.S. over the past decade.

No contrarians? by the time it hits the NYT or Marketwatch, I have never made any money.
I generally agree that this will go on a long time but I think there will be far better prices in the next few months. The market is priced for perfection and assumes 1) the Fed will keep pumping money in 2) there will be a perfectly effective vaccine by late fall and everyone will take it 3) things will return to normal next spring, and SP500 earnings with it 3) There will be a split Congress and the election results will be available soon after the election 4) no inflation
Some of these are mutually exclusive or at least contrary to each other.
When there is another 10 to 15% dip you will need to know if that is just the first shot of a long war. a lot of things may get much cheaper
I think we are at least a year away from solving Covid and maybe longer. Look a the inability of most people to accept minor restrictions. A vaccine that is almost 100% effective is the only thing that will solve that. It will be difficult to determine that without vaccination millions and seeing who gets infected.
If Trump really refuses to concede or if the Democrats win everything things will really tank.

"Snowflake SNOW, , the cloud software company backed by Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway BRK.B, 0.91%, goes public in a hotly demanded initial public offering. Snowflake priced its IPO at $120, after initially seeking as little as $75 per share. Also on the IPO front, Israeli software company JFrog priced its initial public offering at $44, above its $39 to $41 price range.
Derf

My goal for this part of my portfolio is to reduce risk and perhaps start to replace some of my vulnerable bond funds and low vol. equity funds. I already added SWAN (which seemed to perform in the mid range of this group), and looking seriously now to pair it with one of the alt. mutuals. I’m still intrigued by David’s TMSRX write up, but ARBIX and IQDAX look good as well.

My choice would be ARBIX. I like its risk/reward, the chart looks better without drastic up/down days and consistency. Also check PV(numbers). It has the best performance, SD, Sharpe, Sortino.

Is consumer spending still 70% of our GNP? We know who owns the assets. I wonder who does the buying.
I don't see any problem with having a plan to take profits and rebalance according to your situation and comfort level. That may not involve predictions. But it does mean selling from time to time. And doesn't that involve the estimation that while I could make more, I am happy with what I have made so far?

.............Sounds similar to the way I'm operating, these days. Simple portfolio, not many changes to be made---- because I did my homework. The one slightly disappointing aspect these days: RPSIX. Dependable, extremely diversified, bond-wise. A TRP fund full of other TRP bond funds, with a small slice of equities. That equity portion makes it a bit unique, I suppose. Might help add to profits, most years, yes? ...But the monthlies have been getting disappointing. Not awful, just going lower in dribs and drabs. So, I've searched and searched TRP for a different bond fund that's worth anything. (Apart from tax-free, specific-State funds. I've even looked at some of them, too: NJ and VA.) But there's no tax-free advantage for us. TRP is really not a bond shop. I just don't want to go starting brokerage accounts that I've never needed, ever before. ...The other bond funds in our stable: PRSNX, PTIAX. That PRSNX is our 3rd-largest holding, at 21%. RPSIX is number two. (Anyone else notice that a few months ago, PTIAX moved their monthly pay-out date to the MIDDLE of the month??? They must have received too many complaints. Performance is rather GOOD, but they play the game about vested shares and "pending" shares. Screw THAT. I told them I don't want to hear about "pending" shares. My money is green and very real. And they take it automatically from my account, monthly. The withdrawal from my account is never shown as "pending."
... I'm on a rant, so, get on with it... Once, speaking to a "Supervisor," I asked him: "why are there "pending" shares in the first place? Is it because you have too few people hired to do the record-keeping in a TIMELY manner?" And the phone went dead. Until I broke the silence, and said: "Alright, then. THAT'S clear." Good fund. But that whole business sucks dooky from shrews.
https://animals.net/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/Shrew-2-650x425.jpg

Thank you. I read that teenager's brain are not fully developed until they reach 25 years old. So it is not surprising they would engage in large gatherings while most likely not wearing face covering. Not sure the administrators are aware of this. They are under a great deal of financial pressure to reopen the schools.
University setting in lecture halls with > 100 students and in dorms are very challenging to practice social distancing effectively. For those who are in physical science and engineering are having hard time taking their laboratory classes. And there is no good substitute for hands-on learning.
However, several countries including New Zealand, Taiwan, and Singapore are in much better situation where they have reopened their schools. Their death tolls is very small comparing to that of US.

From the article:
...The Diversified Mid Cap Growth fund is ranked 60 out of 163 Mid-Cap Growth funds...
The larger Mid-Cap Growth fund is ranked 116 in the same category, having returned 47.5% over the same period.
Probably to boost performance on a larger fund.

here is what happens when you lie repeatedly enough:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/i-cant-stand-trump-but-democrats-may-force-me-to-vote-for-him/2020/09/14/1cf10518-f6c4-11ea-a275-1a2c2d36e1f1_story.html
leftward lurch and all that rot
almost everything she lists is a demonstrable lie, but it does not matter

New Fund (RPMGX) has about $34B AUM. Old fund (PRDMX) has about $2B AUM, and has outperformed the larger fund most recently, and over the last 1, 3 and 5 years.
Last 1 year: PRDMX @ 15%, RPMGX @ 10%
Last 3 yrs_: PRDMX @ 16%, RPMGX @ 13%
Last 5 yrs_: PRDMX @ 14%, RPMGX @ 13%
Guessing this is a promotion.
http://quotes.morningstar.com/chart/fund/chart?t=PRDMX
http://quotes.morningstar.com/chart/fund/chart?t=RPMGX

Unfortunately I have to post it again
Over the years we heard the following:
1) US stocks are over value, the rest of the world is undervalue. US stocks did better in the last 10 years.
2) The GMO team and Arnott have been wrong for 10 years.
3) Gundlach was way wrong when he predicted the 10 year will be at 6% in 2021
4) Bogle was wrong when he predicted stocks/bonds performance based on the past and averages.
5) Inflation and interest rates can only go up. Both wrong for years.
6) inverted yield signals recession = wrong. High PE, PE10 signal the end of the bull market...wrong again for years.
7) There is no way stocks will have a V recovery in March 2020 based on blah, blah, whatever...and they did.
8) The economy is bad, unemployment is high, the debt is huge = bad future stock market. The reality? Stocks are still up.
9) If Trump will be elected, it will be a disaster. Reality? stocks were up
10) New predictions a) The new president will be XXXX so do something now b) Covid-19 cases will be up c) China-US relations got worse
The Fed successfully managed to do all the above and why many "experts" were wrong
If you didn't get the message already, most investors should do nothing to very little. Predictions are a flipping coin. Some will be correct just because markets go sometimes down.

@Crash: "Just how is it that Main Street and Wall Street are so very divorced from one another?"
Is this a new thing? It's going on for decades. It's actually got better for main street because indexes + doing nothing worked so well. Wall St + other investment pros used to take more
Wall St and many companies have been playing with the numbers for many years. Example: how come the new earnings beat the estimates at 70+% every time?
What other choice do you have? Stay in cash/MM?
BTW, I don't follow my generic advice, I'm a trader and retired. When I see elevated risk (VIX > 35 + others) I sell a big % of my portfolio but I don't recommend it to anybody.
Another exception: I think the US market is the best long term market so just enjoy and invest. Many investors don't understand markets and think there is a high correlation between markets NOW to the economy, unemployment and others.

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1548609/000089418920007697/brownadvisoryfundsstrategi.htm
497 1 brownadvisoryfundsstrategi.htm 497
BROWN ADVISORY FUNDS
Brown Advisory Strategic Bond Fund
(the “Fund”)
Institutional Shares (BIABX)
Investor Shares (BATBX)
Advisor Shares (Not Available for Sale)
Supplement dated September 14, 2020
to the Prospectus, the Summary Prospectus and the Statement of Additional Information
dated October 31, 2019
The Board of Trustees (the “Board”) of Brown Advisory Funds (the “Trust”), based upon the recommendation of Brown Advisory LLC (the “Adviser”), the investment adviser to the Fund, has determined to close and liquidate the Fund. The Board concluded that it would be in the best interest of the Fund and its shareholders that the Fund be closed and liquidated as a series of the Trust effective as of the close of business on October 14, 2020. Accordingly, the Board approved a Plan of Liquidation and Termination (the “Plan”) that sets forth the manner in which the Fund will be liquidated.
The Board has determined to waive any applicable redemption fees and exchange fees for shares redeemed on or after September 14, 2020.
Effective September 15, 2020, in anticipation of the liquidation, the Fund is no longer accepting purchases into the Fund. In addition, the Adviser will begin an orderly transition of the portfolio to cash and cash equivalents and the Fund will no longer be pursuing its stated investment objective. Shareholders of the Fund may redeem their investments as described in the Fund’s Prospectus.
If you hold your shares in an IRA account, you have 60 days from the date you receive your proceeds to reinvest or “rollover” your proceeds into another IRA and maintain their tax-deferred status. You must notify the Fund’s transfer agent by telephone at 800-540-6807 (toll free) or 414-203-9064 prior to October 14, 2020, of your intent to rollover your IRA account to avoid withholding deductions from your proceeds.
Pursuant to the Plan, if the Fund has not received your redemption request or other instruction prior to October 14, 2020, your shares will be redeemed on October 14, 2020, and you will receive your proceeds from the Fund, subject to any required withholding. These proceeds will generally be subject to federal and possibly state and local income taxes if the redeemed shares are held in a taxable account, and the proceeds exceed your adjusted basis in the shares redeemed.
If the redeemed shares are held in a qualified retirement account such as an IRA, the redemption proceeds may not be subject to current income taxation. You should consult with your tax advisor on the consequences of this redemption to you.
Shareholder inquiries should be directed to the Fund at 800-540-6807 (toll free) or 414-203-9064.
Please retain this supplement for your reference.

"the stock market and the economy is two very different thing" = correct
"A reckoning is coming" investing based on predictions isn't recommended.
Over the years we heard the following:
1) US stocks are over value, the rest of the world is undervalue. US stocks did better in the last 10 years.
2) The GMO team and Arnott have been wrong for 10 years.
3) Gundlach was way wrong when he predicted the 10 year will be at 6% in 2021
4) Bogle was wrong when he predicted stocks/bonds performance based on the past and averages.
5) Inflation and interest rates can only go up. Both wrong for years.
6) inverted yield signals recession = wrong. High PE, PE10 signal the end of the bull market...wrong again for years.
7) There is no way stocks will have a V recovery in March 2020 based on blah, blah, whatever...and they did.
8) The economy is bad, unemployment is high, the debt is huge = bad future stock market. The reality? Stocks are still up.
9) If Trump will be elected, it will be a disaster. Reality? stocks were up
10) New predictions a) The new president will be XXXX so do something now b) Covid-19 cases will be up c) China-US relations got worse
The Fed successfully managed to do all the above and why many "experts" were wrong
If you didn't get the message already, most investors should do nothing to very little. Predictions are a flipping coin. Some will be correct just because markets go sometimes down.