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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Why Own T-Bills?
    Thanks for the post,info @catch22. I took a look at Vanguards tip, VIPSX. YTD shows 6.54% as compared to LTPZ at 18%. Would the difference in return be do to duration ?
    Thanks , Derf
  • Why Own T-Bills?
    Some type of bond is likely a part of your portfolio, whether a direct investment into a sector or a mix in an income or allocation fund.
    I'll place this list again for a view of performance YTD (about mid-year for 2020). You may choose to review this bond list (copy/paste to your own document) periodically as a reference to performance. I don't anticipate updating this list. Pricing performance is where the gains or losses take place. I'm not attempting to find or chase a high yield. My preference is that a given bond area has a declining yield to provide for a likely increase in the price.
    A few views from bondland, for AAA rated bonds:
    JULY 10 WEEK / YTD
    --- MINT = - .05% / +.9% (Pimco Enhanced short maturity)
    --- SHY = - 02% / +2.9% (UST 1-3 yr bills)
    --- IEI = + .0% /+5.2% (UST 3-7 yr notes/bonds)
    --- IEF = +1.5% /+6.9% (UST 7-10 yr bonds)
    --- TIP = +.2% / +6.6% (UST Tips, 3-10 yrs duration, some 20+ yr duration)
    --- LTPZ = +.6% / + 18% (UST, long duration TIPs bonds
    --- TLT = +1.7% /+23.8% (20+ Yr UST Bond
    --- EDV = -2.5% / +31.6% (UST Vanguard extended duration bonds)
    --- ZROZ = +2.8% /+33.8% (UST., AAA, long duration zero coupon bonds)
    ***Other, for reference, not AAA rated:
    --- HYG = +.4 / -3.7% (high yield bonds, proxy ETF)
    --- LQD = +.6% / +7.8% (corp. bonds, various quality)
    I have also previously noted that EDV, TLT and ZROZ can be very hot potatoes to manage and require a close watch and what may adjust their directions.
    ***** It's not what you look at that matters, it's what you see. *****
    Henry David Thoreau

    Please alert me as to any errors.
    NOTE: our portfolio at this time is fully tax sheltered investments and with this; we don't have concern with the taxable status of distributions or buys and sells in this area.
    Take care,
    Catch
  • FPA New Income, Inc. limited availability to new investors as of August 1, 2020
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/99203/000110465920082874/tm2024548-1_497seq.htm
    ...Effective August 1, 2020, the following is added to the front page of the Prospectus:
    Fund shares are presently offered for sale only to existing shareholders and to directors, officers and employees
    of the Fund, the Fund’s Adviser, First Pacific Advisors, LP, and affiliated companies, and their immediate
    relatives, and certain categories of shareholders.
    Effective August 1, 2020, the section titled “Purchase and Sale of Fund Shares” on page 8 is replaced in its entirety with the following:
    Purchase and Sale of Fund Shares
    The Fund has discontinued indefinitely the sale of its shares to new investors, except existing shareholders, directors, officers and employees of the Fund, the Adviser and affiliated companies, and their immediate relatives. See the section entitled “Limited Availability to New Investors” for a description of shareholders eligible to purchase shares of the Fund. Investors may purchase or redeem Fund shares on any business day by written request, check, wire, ACH (Automated Clearing House), telephone, or through dealers as further described in this prospectus. You may conduct transactions by mail (FPA Funds, c/o UMB Fund Services, Inc., P.O. Box 2175, Milwaukee, Wisconsin 53201-2175, or 235 West Galena Street, Milwaukee, Wisconsin 53212), by wire, or by telephone at (800) 638-3060. Purchases and redemptions by telephone are only permitted if you previously established this option in your account. Eligible investors can use the Account Application for initial purchases.
    Eligible investors can purchase shares by contacting any investment dealer authorized to sell the Fund’s shares. The minimum initial investment is $1,500, and each subsequent investment, which can be made directly to UMB Fund Services, Inc., must be at least $100. However, as described herein, no minimum investment amount is imposed for subsequent investments in retirement plans. All purchases made by check should be in U.S. dollars and made payable to the FPA Funds. Third party, starter or counter checks will not be accepted. A charge may be imposed if a check does not clear. The Fund reserves the right to waive or lower purchase and investment minimums in certain circumstances. For example, the minimums listed above may be waived or lowered for investors who are customers of certain financial intermediaries that hold the Fund’s shares in certain omnibus accounts, at the discretion of the officers of the Fund. In addition, financial intermediaries may impose their own minimum investment and subsequent purchase amounts.
    Subsequent investments and redemptions can be made directly to UMB Fund Services, Inc.
    Effective August 1, 2020, the following is added at the beginning of the section titled “Investing with the Fund” on page 23:
    LIMITED AVAILABILITY TO NEW INVESTORS
    The availability of shares of the Fund to new investors is limited. The Fund has discontinued indefinitely the sale of its shares to new investors, except existing shareholders, directors, officers and employees of the Fund, the Adviser and affiliated companies, and their immediate relatives. Affiliated companies include: current and former directors, officers and employees of the Adviser (and its predecessor firm and such predecessor firm’s parent firms) and its affiliates; current and former directors of, and partners and employees of legal counsel to, the investment companies advised by the Adviser; investment advisory clients of the Adviser and consultants to such clients and their directors, officers and employees; employees (including registered representatives) of a dealer that has a selling group agreement with UMB Distribution Services, LLC and consents to the purchases; any employee benefit plan maintained for the benefit of such qualified investors; directors, officers and employees of a company whose employee benefit plan holds shares of one or more of the FPA Funds; and directors, officers and employees of the Fund’s custodian and transfer agent.
    In addition, the Fund will allow new investors to purchase shares if they fall into one of the following categories:
    1. Clients of an institutional consultant, a financial advisor, a financial planner, or an affiliate of a financial advisor or financial planner, who has client assets invested with the Fund or the Adviser at the time of the investor’s application;
    2. Investors purchasing Fund shares through a sponsored fee-based program where shares of the Fund are made available to that program pursuant to an agreement with FPA Funds or UMB Distribution Services, LLC, and FPA Funds or UMB Distribution Services, LLC has notified the sponsor of that program, in writing, that shares may be offered through such program and has not withdrawn that notification;
    3. Investors transferring or “rolling over” into a Fund IRA from an employee benefit plan through which the investor held shares of the Fund (if an investor’s plan doesn’t qualify for rollovers an investor may still open a new account with all or part of the proceeds of a distribution from the plan);
    4. Investors that are an employee benefit plan or other type of corporate or charitable account sponsored by or affiliated with an organization that also sponsors or is affiliated with (or is related to an organization that sponsors or is affiliated with) another employee benefit plan or corporate or charitable account that is a shareholder of the Fund; or
    5. Investors participating in an employee benefit plan that is already a Fund shareholder.
    The Fund may ask you to verify that you meet one of the categories above prior to permitting you to open a new account in the Fund. The Fund may permit you to open a new account if the Fund reasonably believes that you are eligible. The Fund also may decline to permit you to open a new account if the Fund believes that doing so would be in the best interests of the Fund and its shareholders, even if you would be eligible to open a new account under these guidelines.
    The Fund’s ability to impose the guidelines above with respect to accounts held by financial intermediaries may vary depending on the systems capabilities of those intermediaries, applicable contractual and legal restrictions and cooperation of those intermediaries.
    The Fund continues to reinvest dividends and capital gain distributions with respect to the accounts of existing shareholders who elect such options.
    The Fund may recommence at any time the offering of shares to all investors if the Board of Directors believes it would be in the best interests of the Fund and its shareholders.
    Federal regulations may require the Fund to obtain your name, your date of birth (for a natural person), your residential street address or principal place of business and your Social Security Number, Employer Identification Number or other government issued identification when you open an account. Additional information may be required in certain circumstances or to open accounts for corporations or other entities, and certain information regarding beneficial ownership will be verified, including information about beneficial owners of such entities. The Fund may use this information to attempt to verify your identity and, for legal entities, the identity of beneficial owners. The Fund may not be able to establish an account if the necessary information is not received. The Fund may also place limits on account transactions while it is in the process of attempting to verify your identity and, for legal entities, the identity of beneficial owners. Additionally, if the Fund is unable to verify the identity of you or your beneficial owners after your account is established, the Fund, the Fund's distributor and the Fund's transfer agent each reserve the right to reject further purchase orders from you or to take such other action as they deem reasonable or required by law, including closing your account. If your account is closed for this reason, your shares will be redeemed at the NAV next calculated on the date your account is closed, and you bear the risk of loss.
    Effective August 1, 2020, the section titled “How to Buy Fund Shares” on page 25 of the Prospectus is hereby deleted in its entirety.
    PLEASE RETAIN FOR FUTURE REFERENCE.
    FPA New Income, Inc. (FPNIX)
    Supplement dated July 13, 2020 to the
    Statement of Additional Information dated January 31, 2020
    This Supplement amends information in the Statement of Additional Information (the “SAI”) for the FPA New Income, Inc. (the “Fund”), dated January 31, 2020. You should retain this Supplement and the Prospectus for future reference. Additional copies of the SAI may be obtained free of charge by visiting our web site at www.fpa.com or calling us at (800) 638-3060.
    Effective August 1, 2020, on page 50 of the SAI, the following language is added to the section titled “Purchase, Redemption and Pricing of Shares”:
    Limited Availability to New Investors. The availability of shares of the Fund to new investors is limited. See the section titled, “Limited Availability to New Investors” in the Prospectus for a complete description of categories of shareholders eligible to purchase shares of the Fund.
    The Fund continues to accept additional investments from existing shareholders, and continues to reinvest dividends and capital gain distributions with respect to the accounts of existing shareholders who elect such options.
    The Fund may recommence at any time the offering of shares to all investors if the Board of Directors believes it would be in the best interests of the Fund and its shareholders.
    PLEASE RETAIN FOR FUTURE REFERENCE.
  • How Did Members First Find MFO? IOW What Got You Here?
    I think I found it after trying to figure out where an M* writer got off to.
    Mike Lee? Stan Lee? Used to cover ETF's at M*. Wrote a couple of pieces here.
    I don't follow ETF's. But I always enjoyed reading his stuff.

    I believe you are referring to Sam Lee who is a talented writer. Like you, I also enjoyed reading his articles. After he left Morningstar, he founded SVRN Asset Management.
  • Investors face ‘a scary, out-of-whack’ scenario
    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/investors-face-a-scary-out-of-whack-scenario-just-look-at-this-chart-2020-07-12
    Investors face ‘a scary, out-of-whack’ scenario — just look at this chart
    ‘Just as these stocks pulled up the entire market, they can pull down the entire market by their sheer weight’
    Where we're headed, nobody knows.
    AAPL
    +0.24%
    MSFT
    -0.30%
    AMZN
    +0.54%
    GOOG
    +2.03%
    FB
    +0.23%
    DJIA
    +1.43%
    If it weren’t for the “Giant 5,” your money would have been better off sitting in cash than the stock market over the past few years, according to Wolf Richter of the Wolf Street blog.
    The Giant with moderate gains recently,
    Interesting chart
    Wondering if tech downfalls soon follow
  • 10 Best-Performing ETFs of 2020
    duh
    why are you posting this, ffs ?
    yes, if I bought $10k of XVZ on March 1, when the whiffs of covid19 were rapidly spreading in the media, and sold them on the 18th, I woulda made $15k!
    who did that? who does that? what is your point in posting this?
    if I had sold them anytime in the last 3mos I woulda only doubled my money.
    hmm, I wonder what the takeaway is from all of that.
    apart from how to decompress after long days of working in the hc trenches. - ?
  • Hedging for election cancellation and/or refusal to leave
    Anyone else pondering this risk?
    Yes. I’ve pondered it since roughly November 9, 2016. But I ponder a whole lot of things. Folks ponder all sorts of solutions to vexing issues. So the options Larry tossed out are no doubt being considered by some. He left out shifting to foreign equities / currencies which some (self included) have also pursued.
    Gold often reacts to fear, Some of the run-up in price from around $1500 to today’s $1800 over the past 2 years has likely been influenced by the fear Larry voiced. But gold is an extremely thin market. Easy for the big players to manipulate. And it can turn on a dime. Just when you think you understand why it’s behaving the way it is, it will turn on you and make you an idiot. I think it will continue moving higher the next several months or longer and draw in a lot of new (unsuspecting) money. But as demonstrated back in March, it’s fully capable of falling 15-20% in a matter of days and taking down the miners along with it. And in a real bear market, it can be a “white knuckle” ride you won’t soon forget.
    Here’s a vexing dilemma. Say you buy those hedges which are rising (and have been for some time) out of political anxiety. Then, surprisingly, the perceived “problem“ fails to materialize (crisis averted). What do you think is going to happen to the value of those hedges? While theoretically cash can’t fall in (nominal) value, should other alternatives (like equities) surge ahead while you’re sitting in cash you have, effectively, held a losing position. All motion is relative. :)
  • The S&P 500 will fall 8% by the end of 2020, according to BOA CHIEF
    @Old_Skeet: SHE was just repeating long discredited anti-Democratic blather. Forbes, that well-known anti-capitalist organ of the Democratic Party, has a different take. Some excerpts from a Forbes article on the subject:

    Looking at ... total returns for the S&P 500 during presidencies since 1929, it is clear that U.S. stock returns have been much better when a Democrat was the president; however, it would be a mistake to conclude that stock returns were higher because a Democrat held the presidency.
    There is no conclusive evidence suggesting the president’s party has any statistically significant impact on U.S. equity market returns. Intuitively this makes sense, because stock returns are influenced by a myriad of factors such as valuations, corporate profits, business cycles, monetary policy, etc. In addition, the increasingly global economy (the S&P 500 generates more than 50% of revenues outside the U.S.) makes the actions of a single government less important.
    The stock market is a complex adaptive system in which cause and effect are not easy to link. Market movements, particularly over short periods such as a presidential term (yes, four years is a short-term investment period), are random.

    But a word from the White House: This is just more PHONY FAKE NEWS from Forbe's with their long history of promoting left-wing hate-America HOAXES. They should go back wherever they came from since they obviously don't like it here.
    @Old_Skeet- I was afraid that you might be uncomfortable with the actual facts as mentioned by Forbes, so I included a softened-down Trumpian rant to make you feel a little more at home.
  • 10 Best-Performing ETFs of 2020

    https://money.usnews.com/investing/etfs/slideshows/best-performing-etfs
    10 Best-Performing ETFs of 2020
    In the first half of the year, volatility funds and internet plays soared.
    Amplify Online Retail ETF (IBUY)
    ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK)
    O'Shares Global Internet Giants ETF (OGIG)
    ARK Next Generation Internet ETF (ARKW)
    ProShares Long Online/Short Stores ETF (CLIX)
    WisdomTree Cloud Computing Fund (WCLD)
    ARK Genomic Revolution ETF (ARKG)
    ProShares VIX Mid-Term Futures ETF (VIXM)
    iPath S&P 500 Dynamic VIX ETN (XVZ)
    iPath Series B S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN (VXX)
  • The S&P 500 will fall 8% by the end of 2020, according to BOA CHIEF
    Hi guys, I'm thinking that he might be somewhat right in making this call. Remember, in the last election what was considered a business and economy friendly candicate was elected President. If memory is correct, the S&P 500 Index was up nicely after the November election which Trump won even before Trump took office. If it is viewed that an unfriendly business and economy candicate might get elected President then why would it not stand to reason that the markets might be in for a good pull back? Besides the S&P 500 Index's valuation being streached as I write with a TTM P/E Ratio of about 30; and, the outcome of the upcoming Presidential election being uncertain is another reason that Old_Skeet is trimming his equity allocation. Plus, there is the COVA 19 issue as well.
    To play it from a conserative approach ... I trimmed some from my equity allocation this past week and I plan to trim some more in the coming weeks.
  • How Did Members First Find MFO? IOW What Got You Here?
    In my case it started in the way back era of Roy and FundAlarm. I held only a 25- fund portfolio and was choosing those funds on a performance mo-mo basis by and large. I read an article mentioning FundAlarm and the 3-Alarm rating which suggested considering selling such a fund and I was hooked. Roy's biting monthly commentary was worth the price of admission. Today I hold a 5-6 fund portfolio, none of which I held back then, and in total they account for possibly 10-12% of my total portfolio value.
  • Hedging for election cancellation and/or refusal to leave
    Do nothing and stop being emotional and dramatic.
    I kind of agree with 1k. Perhaps for somewhat different reasons. This and many other scenarios have long been contemplated and factored into investment positioning by investors with far longer time horizons than 4 or 5 months. Doing something now in a panic-driven frenzy would be unwise. How many other black swan scenarios should we than prep for? Earth being slammed by an asteroid? Some nut touching off an A-bomb somewhere on the planet - maybe 2 or 3? Killer plague wiping out large segments of the population? How about an evil genius hacking the electrical grid and knocking out all power and communications coast-to-coast? How would (the now darkened) stock market like that?
    If you worried about all these possibilities all the time you’d never invest. Instead, you’d be proud bearer of a Treasury money fund cranking out something like .09% annual interest. My point isn’t that the possibilities Larry listed couldn’t happen. To the contrary. I’m suggesting that to invest is to accept this and a wide array of dangers. There’s nothing “safe” about investing.
    -
    We are indebted to @JohnN for highlighting that this is a silly question for a broad based investment forum like this to attempt to answer and doesn’t warrant our energy being so expended. (But it would make an intriguing subject for law students or those doing graduate work in history / poly-sci.)
  • Local finances in trouble, but fund investors can still profit – The New York Times
    Local finances in trouble, but fund investors can still profit
    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/10/business/local-finances-troubled-investors-profit.html
    /Just counting the effects of the federal tax exemption, if you are within 24% federal tax bracket, the current 1.4% return from the Vanguard medium-tax-exempt fund is equivalent to a 1.84% return in a taxable bond fund (assuming, of course, that no of both is held in a tax sheltered account). For investors in the 35% federal tax bracket, the return is equivalent to a taxable return of 2.2%. The current average yield on basic bond funds (whose income is taxable) is 1.4%.
    If this yield advantage is attractive, it should be reiterated that the coming months could be difficult.
    Hayes warned that even with the economy reopening, municipal revenues “will only be a percentage of what they were before Covid.” Even if a vaccine arrives, people may not spend as much, rely on public transportation with the same enthusiasm, or drive or fly as much, or flock to stadiums, arenas and convention centers.
    In addition, some states and cities that issued high volumes of bonds already had serious budget problems before the crisis: Illinois and New Jersey had many bonds rated BBB, the lowest step in the investment category. before the coronavirus. These and other states may find it more difficult to emerge from this recession./
  • The S&P 500 will fall 8% by the end of 2020, according to BOA CHIEF
    SP500 down to 2900, ooh
    that sure seems modest to me, with the shiller p/e so high
  • ESG funds- who's buying
    I own a small cap (BOSOX) and a mid cap (WAMFX) from Boston/Walden. I didn't have to spend 100K to get in through my Vanguard IRA. The fees are reasonable. And the yearly turnover is less than 25%.
    I also own PARMX, the Parnassus mid cap.
    I have looked at large caps. But I don't want one that invests in Amazon. I'm a sucker for value investing. So maybe Parnassus Endevor (PARWX) -- though I don't care for the high turnover.
    I'll see where they're at in a couple of years.
  • A couple fund "swaps" that paid off
    Equity performance has shifted in last several years as growth out-perform value style. This year the difference is even bigger.
    YTD: Vanguard Growth index, 17.2% versus Vanguard Value index, -15.0%.
    Prior to the pandemic, FANNG stocks heavily dominate the indices. Even though US is not yet official in recession, few stocks are showing decent earning and many retract their earning forecast. Time like this is similar to the time period prior to the 2000 dot-com bubble. Growth stocks way out-perform value stocks for several years, then came the crash. Value stocks held up better from 2000-2002 until market recovered. Can this repeat again?
    FMIJX held high quality stocks but I believe it is slowing environment that steered away from these stocks. Still believe FMI stock picking skills but perhaps bad timing. For now the change to VWILX has been good sofar.
  • ESG funds- who's buying
    A previous thread got me thinking, anyone investing in ESG funds, ETFs, or in stocks (based primarily on ESG criteria)?
    New Labor Department Guidance Takes Aim at ESG Investing
    Back in the early 90s, the funds, I was aware of, were Pax World (which I invested in), Calvert Socially Conscious (?), & Parnassus fund. There might have been others, but I forget. Performance over several years in Pax World was so-so and I decided I would invest for return & donate to causes that I felt would make an impact instead.
    In 2018, I revisited the socially conscious investing arena & found it had actually morphed into ESG funds.
    As noted in a Rekenthaler column link (provided by @msf in the previous link):
    The Department of Labor Attempts to Throttle ESG Investing
    As I wrote last month, a key difference between ESG and its predecessor, "socially conscious investing," is that socially conscious managers implicitly admitted that their strategies might reduce their returns, while ESG investors do not. Socially conscious investors used negative screens to eliminate stocks that violated their beliefs. In contrast, ESG investors seek positive attributes, which they claim will make their companies better investments.
    Though to be honest, I don't recall seeing that in the Pax World literature!
    I found the Brown Advisory website to have thoughtful insights & information available & decided to invest in BIAWX at the time.
    This is their 2019 Impact Report
    Today BIAWX is my largest equity holding.
    I would consider Parnassus funds as well. They've been consistent, around a long time, & their website also provides a ton of information in this area.
    Parnassus
    BIAWX & PRILX have both been competitive:
    Portfolio Visualizer
    I would have thought that there might be a lot of overlap in their holdings but there wasn't. Microsoft, Amazon, Google, Danaher, & Verisk Analytics make up about 20% for each but are otherwise not.
    As the ESG arena flourishes, I am also skeptical in the metrics used to quantify companies & funds.
    Take Tesla (TSLA), electric cars, renewable energy, & Elon Musk.
    Without evidence, Musk blames ‘false positives’ for surge in coronavirus cases
    Any thoughts?
  • Equity Diversifiers
    widespread perception that long-term Treasuries are the most attractive diversifiers, the recent data don't bear this out. In fact, the shorter-term Treasury index had an even lower correlation with the S&P 500 than the long-term index."
    This has been quote several times here. I would use short term treasury index in place of part of money market (or CDs) given the current low yield environment.
  • New Labor Department Guidance Takes Aim at ESG Investing
    My take on of all of the above links was the ridiculousness & arbitrariness of the DOL regarding this proposal.
    As pointed out in Rekenthaler's piece:
    The second implication is that corporate plans will profit by switching from actively run ESG investments to lower-cost indexers. That may be true. But once again, the same logic would seem to apply to all actively managed investments. This book, after all, has been written. We know that active managers of all stripes, both retail and institution, tend to lag index funds. It is strange that the DOL’s counsel extends only to one flavor of active management, rather than the entire field.
    As Bloomberg's Matt Levine points out, each of those two sides thinks that it is best positioned to make such decisions. "Under Donald Trump," writes Levine, the U.S. government says "coal is great, more coal please," while BlackRock (being an ESG investor) responds "coal is bad, no more coal please." Levine continues, "The people making environmental, social, and governance issues should be the government, says the government; the asset managers and pension funds had better stick to making money.
    Which is ironic coming from a Trump administration touting less regulation. And whose stance on Covid-19 has been & still is everyone fend for themselves.
    Contrast this with Europe & ESG investing (as well as Covid-19):
    Globally, getting ahead of regulation and viewing ESG as a fiduciary duty were the top factors for adopting ESG scoring 46% while mitigating ESG risks was highlighted by 44% of respondents.
    Regulatory shifts driving ESG uptake in Europe

    ETF Insight: ESG ETFs score major victory during coronavirus turmoil
    ETF issuers not focusing on ESG are set to lose out in a big way