Bottom Line Personal ... June 1, 2020 ... "Simplify Your Investment Mix" by: David Snowball Nice basic portfolios. I find it interesting that he selected DODBX over VWELX.
As I've written in other posts, 2020 skews the figures. A 6% performance difference YTD is enough to make VWELX look better over any time frame. But this is (we hope) a once in a century situation. Outside of this period, DODBX looks better. OTOH, what 2020 highlights is the higher risk inherent in D&C funds.
David Snowball perhaps addresses this in his sidebar on index funds: although not best in bad markets, good over the long term. The same could be said of D&C funds.
One small nit to pick: PONRX is a load fund. As it says in its
prospectus: "distribution fees ... may cost you more than other types of sales charges, such as [front end loads]. Therefore, ... the distribution fees payable on ... Class R shares may, over time, cost you more than Class A [front end loads]".
Better to buy PONAX load waived. The embedded (level) load in PONRX is reflected in its lower Morningstar (retrospective) star rating and its lower Morningstar (prospective) medal rating.
Do You Have A Long-Term Plan If The Coronavirus Bear Market Continues?
MOAT vs. DSEEX/DSENX Using your "good until it wasn't" Pimco bond fund PONAX, one sees that DSEEX's performance since April 30th was roughly the sum of CAPE's and PONAX's. (Remember that DSEEX is leveraged for 200% exposure: 100% CAPE, 100% bond.)
See
graph here. (Graph only shows CAPE through
5/21; it closed
up 0.24% on 5/22)
The graph does show fairly clearly that the bond portion of DSEEX is not, however, mimicking PONAX. If it were, the spread between DSEEX and CAPE would have been microscopic until a week ago (since PONAX was roughly flat for the first couple of weeks in May).
DSEEX: +1.86%
PONAX: +1.20%
CAPE: +0.3
5% + 0.24% (Friday)
Total: +1.79%
Guinness Atkinson Asia Pacific Dividend Builder and Dividend Builder Funds reorganized The
Dividend Builder ETF prospectus, as yet incomplete.
My understanding is that the conversion was pursued in order to level the playing field by eliminating structural costs. The managers win if and only if the new wrapper carries dramatically lower fees than the original, and fees lower enough to win back the attention of the advisor community. So far, those haven't been published.
Jim Atkinson, btw, once noted that this fund was vastly more popular in Europe than in the US. "Something about the underlying logic really connects with the German investor," he said.
MOAT vs. DSEEX/DSENX Starting end April DSEEX pulled ahead of CAPE and then a week or so ago ahead of SP500. Maybe the bond sauce has been reformulated. (Some of the Pimco gogo vehicles have perked up also.)
Longleaf Partners Small Cap Fund reopens to new investors (LLSCX) 2020 skews results. Some funds have done way better than their long term performance would suggest, LLSCX has done remarkably worse (99th percentile of mid cap blend category).
Looking instead at 1/1/2010 through 1/1/2020, LLSCX has done okay. Not an endorsement or a commentary on its investments, but rather a suggestion to look at more than one snapshot in time. Especially given that the outsized impact of the 2020 market effectively transforms some "long term" figures into "what have you done for me lately" pictures.
Here's a chart over that timeframe comparing LLSCX, R2K (its stated benchmark), midcap blend (its M* category since 2011), and small cap value (it claims to buy small cap companies, and Longleaf generally claims to be a value family). It just edged out R2K (210% cumulative return vs. 206% for R2K), and did better against the MCB and SCV category averages.
M* comparison chartIf you don't like looking at charts (personally I prefer to read numbers), the LLSCX
summary prospectus says that the fund's average return over the past ten years was 11.98% vs 11.83 for the R2K. That's 2010-2019.
Why bother? Lots of better funds out there.Can't argue with that :-)
Guinness Atkinson Asia Pacific Dividend Builder and Dividend Builder Funds reorganized
Longleaf Partners Small Cap Fund reopens to new investors (LLSCX) I have been in and now out of Longleaf funds for decades. I finally gave up. While their reports are wonderfully detailed, and they make compelling arguments for all of their positions, the market seldom agrees.
I think they make some disastrous mistakes over the years, and stuck with large positions that were cheap and stayed cheaper or got cheaper.
Neither LLSCX or LLPFX have beaten their benchmark over the last decade. 11% of LLSCX is in Century Link which is down 35% since they first bought it. While CTL owns a large chunk of the internet backbone, it is loosing revenue quickly.
Why bother? Lots of better funds out there.
BUY - SELL - PONDER - MAY 2020 Too much bad news still out there. I'm slowly selling things as market rises to build cash. I think we're going to have a lot more businesses going south this summer. We're starting to see small businesses locally (WA state) announce going out of business sales. I think that will continue. And big companies like JC Penney and Hertz announced this week too. I think that trend will continue as so many businesses are leveraged to the hilt (as the MBA degree folks think that is the best way to do things).
So right now I'm taking profits and building cash. I've made a bunch of money in this rebound with QQQ although I sold my last of that this week. I'm about 50% stocks now where I'm usually more like 75. Still about 10% down for the year; that happens but I don't want to take a big drop.
Wealthtrack - Weekly Investment Show - with Consuelo Mack May 23rd Episode:

BUY - SELL - PONDER - MAY 2020
BUY - SELL - PONDER - MAY 2020 Lyn Alden Schwartzer's May 19 article, "First Liquidity, Then Solvency," is a brief, detailed and chart-laden description of today's economy and market.
"Does it get better from here, or is this a big fake-out for another round of selling as we move deeper into this year? ...
"The next several years are likely to be challenging for many companies with weak balance sheets, so make sure you know what you own.
"...the top 5 mega-cap stocks have held up the major American stock market indices like Atlas holding up the world, and reached levels of concentration not seen in nearly four decades."
"...policymakers around the world can't afford to let a massive deflationary economic collapse occur, and for millions and millions of people to be unable to afford the necessities of life and for half of large companies to go out of business, so they will be forced to keep the stimulus taps open, funded with printed money, with a willingness to devalue currency to avoid the worst case economic scenario."
What The Hell Is The Stock Market Doing? Cullen Roche
What The Hell Is The Stock Market Doing? Cullen Roche LG is where it's at for true growth.
Yeah. Trying to see any args against all VONG all the time; slicing and comparing past subsample periods and all that.
VONG started later than the awful late summer of 08 and on to the April 2010 recovery, but taking TRBCX as a sort-of proxy (it performs slightly better than VONG, and yes, has holdings in the low hundreds as opposed to the low
500s), it is only from Aug 08 to Feb 09 that LG underperforms SP
500, and by a nontrivial gap, like 10%. But then back to even, after that brutal half-year.