I've got another deep value fund that I've been wataching as well (TEQIX).
A Star From the Previous Bear Market Is Struggling in This One, Kinnel (Morningstar), May 5
https://www.morningstar.com/articles/982332/a-star-from-the-previous-bear-market-is-struggling-in-this-one

If the market had kindly stuck to the [2007-2009] pattern of reversal, growth funds would be destroyed and value managers finally vindicated. But no such luck: Once again value is bearing the brunt, though financials haven't been hit the hardest.
[T]his bear market has been much tougher on Mutual Series funds than the previous one was. A big part of that story is cash. ...
In March 2009 when the market hit bottom, ...Franklin Mutual Quest had raised cash to ... 49%. ... it was a big win. ... [It] timed the cash raise nicely but timed [ts] re-entry so poorly that [it] squandered much of [its] earlier outperformance. ...
At the end of January 2020 ... Franklin Mutual Quest [held] 11% [in cash]. ... Quest cranked cash up to 30% by the end of March. From Feb. 19 to March 23, 2020, Franklin Mutual Quest lost 30%.

Too little cash too late?

Thanks for posting. HWIAX is one of Old_Skeet's laggards. It was a deep value fund which had been faltering. Thankfully, it was a very small position within my portfolio which I establised a few years ago when the good times were rolling. I never added to it awaiting deep value to recover. I'm thinking I'm going to let it roll into HWHAX which has about a 6.5% yield and see how things go.
I've got another deep value fund that I've been wataching as well (TEQIX). Opened to watch and keep up with how deep value was performing. It's been a laggard as well ... but, doing better than HWIAX.

And, for equities, you should expect to see a 50%+ price decline a couple times a century, a 30% decline once a generation, and a 10% price decline at least every other year.

Feels like we're ahead of schedule for this century.

The fund is closing, not shutting down. Normally it's not surprising to see a fine performing small cap fund close. However, a fund with just $13M AUM (and a corresponding ER a bit south of 3%) would be more likely to shut down than to close.
Perhaps this is being done to give the new manager some breathing space?
The original manager (16 years) just left.

Effective as of May 1, 2020, Mr. Richard A. Barone will no longer serve as a portfolio manager of the Ancora Income Fund and Ancora Special Opportunity Fund. Accordingly, all references to Mr. Barone as portfolio manager in the Funds’ Prospectus, Summary Prospectus and SAI are hereby removed.
Also effective as of May 1, 2020, Mr. James Bernard, CFA, and Kevin Gale will serve as the new co-portfolio managers of the Ancora Income Fund, and John Micklitsch will serve as the new portfolio manager for the Ancora Special Opportunity Fund.

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1260667/000116204420000277/ancora497202005.htm
It is curious that this supplement, detailing a May 1 change in management, is dated May 7th. This might have been an unexpected change.

Couldn't GE do a reverse stock split to stay above $5 ?

Sure they could. And the options would adjust accordingly.

Couldn't GE do a reverse stock split to stay above $5 ?

The rule for taxing T-IRA distributions shouldn't sound too convoluted. It just requires you to do things proportionately.
Say that your total T-IRA value at the end of 2019 was $100K ($5K post-tax, $95K pre-tax contributions and earnings). Then 5% of the IRA was post-tax, 95% pre-tax.
So when you take money out in 2020, 5% of it is post-tax (tax free) and 95% of it is pre-tax (taxable). If you take out $5K this year, then you're taking out 5% x $5K = $250 of post-tax money. That leaves $4750 in post-tax money.
At the end of 2020 you repeat the percentage calculation. If your IRA is again worth $100K, then 4.75% of it is post-tax, and 95.25% is pre-tax.
---
As far as using an out of state tax person goes, the only potential downside I can see is less familiarity with state tax laws. Most things tend to be the same or similar across states. But each state seems to have its own set of quirks that might help you or might serve as gotchas.
Simple example: In Hawaii, it looks like you had to have made your first estimated tax payment (if any) by April 20th. But Massachusetts, like many other states, extended the 1Q and 2Q estimate deadlines to July 15th.
A responsible professional is going to study the rules, but that's still time and effort. And as a novice for the new state, there's still the possibility that they might miss something.

Put on a 5/7 (Jan 22) combo spread on GE for a small credit, 20 spreads controlling 2K shares. Just taking it as a speculative position on a corporate turnaround/recovery .... if GE goes below $5 it may run the risk of getting delisted and/or removed from funds, so I kind of wonder if the 'bottom' is in on the stock. It won't take much to make the position nicely profitable, and the downside risk is quite low/comfortable for me.

FPA International Value Fund (FPIVX
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/924727/000110465920060911/tm2019617-1_497.htm
497 1 tm2019617-1_497.htm 497
FPA Funds Trust
FPA International Value Fund (FPIVX)
Supplement dated May 13, 2020 to the
Prospectus and Statement of Additional Information (“SAI”)
dated April 30, 2020
This Supplement updates certain information contained in the Prospectus and SAI for FPA International Value Fund (the “Fund”), a series of FPA Funds Trust (the “Trust”), dated January 31, 2020. You should retain this Supplement and the Prospectus for future reference. Additional copies of the Prospectus may be obtained free of charge by visiting our web site at www.fpa.com or calling us at (800) 638-3060.
At a meeting held on May 12, 2020, the Board of Trustees (“Board” or “Trustees”) of the Trust approved an Agreement and Plan of Reorganization (the “Plan of Reorganization”) with respect to the Fund. The Plan of Reorganization provides for the reorganization (the “Reorganization”) of the Fund into the Phaeacian Accent International Value Fund (the “New Fund”), a newly created series of Datum One Series Trust, a newly created open-end registered management investment company.
A notice of a special meeting of Fund shareholders and and combined proxy statement and prospectus for the New Fund, seeking shareholder approval for the Plan of Reorganization (the “Special Meeting”) will be mailed to Fund shareholders in advance of the Special Meeting, which is expected to be held in the third quarter of 2020. If the Plan of Reorganization is approved by Fund shareholders at the Special Meeting, shareholders of the Fund will receive shares of the New Fund having the same aggregate net asset value as the shares of the Fund they hold on the date of the Reorganization. The Reorganization will not affect the value of your account in the Fund at the time of the Reorganization. The Reorganization is expected to be treated as a tax-free reorganization for federal tax purposes.
If approved, the Reorganization is expected to occur after the Special Meeting, in either the third or fourth quarter of 2020. Prior to the Reorganization, First Pacific Advisors, LP, the Fund’s current investment adviser, will continue to manage the Fund in the ordinary course, as described in the Fund’s Prospectus.
If the Reorganization is approved by Fund shareholders, Phaeacian Partners LLC (“Phaeacian”) will serve as the investment adviser to the New Fund. Phaeacian is a newly formed investment adviser that is a subsidiary of Polar Capital Holdings plc., and is in part owned by the Fund’s current portfolio manager. If the Reorganization is approved, the New Fund will be managed by the Fund’s current portfolio manager, in his new role with Phaeacian, using substantially similar principal investment strategies to those currently used to manage the Fund.
Fund shareholders may purchase and redeem shares of the Fund in the ordinary course until the last business day before the closing of the Reorganization, as described in the Fund’s Prospectus.
Purchase and redemption requests received after closing of the Reorganization (if approved) should be directed to the New Fund in accordance with its prospectus.
PLEASE RETAIN FOR FUTURE REFERENCE.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FPA Paramount Fund, Inc.
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/76210/000110465920060913/tm2019619-1_497.htm
497 1 tm2019619-1_497.htm 497
FPA Paramount Fund, Inc. (FPRAX)
Supplement dated May 13, 2020 to the
Prospectus and Statement of Additional Information (“SAI”)
dated January 31, 2020
This Supplement updates certain information contained in the Prospectus and SAI for FPA Paramount Fund, Inc. (the “Fund”), dated January 31, 2020. You should retain this Supplement and the Prospectus for future reference. Additional copies of the Prospectus may be obtained free of charge by visiting our web site at www.fpa.com or calling us at (800) 638-3060.
At a meeting held on May 12, 2020, the Board of Directors (“Board” or “Directors”) of the Fund approved an Agreement and Plan of Reorganization (the “Plan of Reorganization”) with respect to the Fund. The Plan of Reorganization provides for the reorganization (the “Reorganization”) of the Fund into the Phaeacian Global Value Fund (the “New Fund”), a newly created series of Datum One Series Trust, a newly created open-end registered management investment company.
A notice of a special meeting of Fund shareholders and and combined proxy statement and prospectus for the New Fund, seeking shareholder approval for the Plan of Reorganization (the “Special Meeting”) will be mailed to Fund shareholders in advance of the Special Meeting, which is expected to be held in the third quarter of 2020. If the Plan of Reorganization is approved by Fund shareholders at the Special Meeting, shareholders of the Fund will receive shares of the New Fund having the same aggregate net asset value as the shares of the Fund they hold on the date of the Reorganization. The Reorganization will not affect the value of your account in the Fund at the time of the Reorganization. The Reorganization is expected to be treated as a tax-free reorganization for federal tax purposes.
If approved, the Reorganization is expected to occur after the Special Meeting, in either the third or fourth quarter of 2020. Prior to the Reorganization, First Pacific Advisors, LP, the Fund’s current investment adviser, will continue to manage the Fund in the ordinary course, as described in the Fund’s Prospectus.
If the Reorganization is approved by Fund shareholders, Phaeacian Partners LLC (“Phaeacian”) will serve as the investment adviser to the New Fund. Phaeacian is a newly formed investment adviser that is a subsidiary of Polar Capital Holdings plc., and is in part owned by the Fund’s current portfolio managers. If the Reorganization is approved, the New Fund will be managed by the Fund’s current portfolio managers, in their new role with Phaeacian, using substantially similar principal investment strategies to those currently used to manage the Fund.
Fund shareholders may purchase and redeem shares of the Fund in the ordinary course until the last business day before the closing of the Reorganization, as described in the Fund’s Prospectus. Purchase and redemption requests received after closing of the Reorganization (if approved) should be directed to the New Fund in accordance with its prospectus.
PLEASE RETAIN FOR FUTURE REFERENCE.

@msf and @davidmoran You are confirming what my tax guy has told us. He is really, really good. But he's back in Massachusetts, still. We used him for 2019 tax return because we had partial-year MA and HI, both. Is there anything apart from what his personal preference might be that would keep us from continuing to use him? ..... BTW, 2020 ---- back in January, was the first time I took ANYTHING from the Trad. IRA. Ostensibly then, that legitimate portion of the distribution can be reported as non-taxable. He spelled it out for me a couple of times: the formula the IRS uses to "tease-out" the non-taxable portion from the rest of it, but it all just sounded ridiculously arcane, complicated and utterly convoluted to me. In other words: bullshit. There is exactly $5,000 of non-taxable money in that IRA, but somehow, it's not possible to just tell the IRS: "OK, I'm taking that $5,000.00 now. See you later." (If we COULD continue to use him, HE would be familiar with our circumstances and we could rely on him to let us know what the status is, in hard-dollar terms, from year to year. It would not take more than a few years, I suppose, to run through that $5,000.00).

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1145022/000089418920003753/hwmergersupplementmay2020.htm
497 1 hwmergersupplementmay2020.htm 497
Hotchkis & Wiley Funds
Supplement dated May 13, 2020 to the Summary Prospectus, Prospectus,
and Statement of Additional Information,
each dated August 29, 2019, as supplemented April 30, 2020
Hotchkis & Wiley Capital Income Fund
Class I (HWIIX)
Class A (HWIAX)
Class C (not currently offered)
Class Z (not currently offered)
We are pleased to announce that on May 12, 2020, the Board of Trustees (the “Board”) of Hotchkis & Wiley Funds (the “Trust”) approved: (1) a plan of reorganization pursuant to which the Hotchkis & Wiley Capital Income Fund (the “Capital Income Fund”) will be reorganized into the Hotchkis & Wiley High Yield Fund (the “High Yield Fund”) (each, a “Fund,” and together, the “Funds”) (the “Reorganization”); and (2) the subsequent liquidation and dissolution of the Capital Income Fund, on or about June 26, 2020. The Reorganization, which is expected to be tax free to the shareholders of the Capital Income Fund and is subject to customary closing conditions, will be effected by transferring of all of the assets and liabilities of the Capital Income Fund to the High Yield Fund in exchange for shares of the High Yield Fund, with the shares being distributed pro rata by the Capital Income Fund to its shareholders. The Capital Income Fund will then be liquidated and dissolved. Shareholders of the Capital Income Fund will not pay any sales load, commission, or other similar fee in connection with the High Yield Fund shares received in the Reorganization. The Reorganization is expected to occur on or about June 26, 2020. In accordance with applicable regulatory guidance, shareholder approval is not required for the Reorganization, and shareholders are not being asked to approve the Reorganization.
The Capital Income Fund’s portfolio managers will continue to manage the Capital Income Fund in the ordinary course through June 26, 2020. The portfolio managers for the Capital Income Fund are Mark Hudoff, Patrick Meegan, and Noah Mayer. Mr. Hudoff and Mr. Meegan also serve as portfolio managers for the High Yield Fund. In addition to Mr. Hudoff and Mr. Meegan, Ray Kennedy and Richard Mak also serve as portfolio managers for the High Yield Fund.
The investment objective of the Capital Income Fund is to seek high current income and long-term growth of income, as well as capital appreciation. The investment objective of the High Yield Fund is to seek high current income combined with the opportunity for capital appreciation to maximize total return. The Funds’ principal investment strategies, risks, and policies are similar.
Existing shareholders may redeem or exchange shares of the Capital Income Fund in the ordinary course until the last business day of the closing of the Reorganization, June 26, 2020. The Capital Income Fund will be closed to purchases as of the close of business on June 19, 2020. The Funds will file an information statement and prospectus as part of a Registration Statement on Form N-14 with the Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”) in connection with the Reorganization. The information statement and prospectus will be sent to shareholders of the Capital Income Fund.
Shareholders are urged to read the information statement and prospectus because it will contain important information about the Reorganization, including the Board’s reasons for approving the Reorganization and a comparison of the Funds’ fees and expenses, principal investment strategies, risks, policies, and other matters. Once filed, the information statement and prospectus will be available, free of charge, on the SEC’s website at http://www.sec.gov. Once mailed to shareholders of the Capital Income Fund, the information statement and prospectus will be available, free of charge, on the Funds’ website at https://www.hwcm.com/mutual-funds/.
PLEASE RETAIN THIS NOTICE FOR FUTURE REFERENCE

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1260667/000116204420000300/ancora497202005.htm
497 1 ancora497202005.htm
Filed Pursuant to Rule 497
Ancora Income Fund
Ancora/Thelen Small-Mid Cap Fund
Ancora MicroCap Fund
Ancora Special Opportunity Fund
Ancora Dividend Value Equity Fund
(together, the “Funds”)
Supplement dated May 13, 2020
To the Funds’ Statutory Prospectus dated April 30, 2020
This Supplement contains new and additional information that supersedes any contrary information contained in the Funds’ Statutory Prospectus. Accordingly, the Funds’ Statutory Prospectus is updated as follows.
Closing of the Ancora Special Opportunity Fund
Effective as of the close of trading on May 13, 2020, the Ancora Special Opportunity Fund
will be closed to investors, and no purchases of such Fund’s shares will be allowed after such date, except as otherwise set forth below.
The following is added to the beginning of the section titled “Purchase and Sale of Fund Shares” on page 13 of the Statutory Prospectus:
The Ancora Special Opportunity Fund will be closed to investors as of the close of trading on the New York Stock Exchange on May 13, 2020 (the “Close Date”), and no purchases of such Fund’s shares will be allowed after the Close Date, subject to certain limited exceptions. For more information, see the “Purchasing Your Shares” section of the Prospectus.
The following is added to the end of the section titled “Purchasing Your Shares” on pages 20-22 of the Statutory Prospectus:
Information Regarding Purchases of Shares of the Ancora Special Opportunity Fund. The Ancora Special Opportunity Fund will be closed to investors as of the close of trading on the Close Date, and no purchases of such Fund’s shares will be allowed after the Close Date, subject to certain limited exceptions. Your investment must be received (not postmarked) by the Fund’s transfer agent, Mutual Shareholder Services, LLC, before the close of trading on the New York Stock Exchange (generally 4:00 p.m. Eastern time) on the Close Date. In addition, after the Close Date, you will not be permitted to exchange shares of other Ancora Funds for shares of the Ancora Special Opportunity Fund.
After the Close Date, purchases of shares of the Ancora Special Opportunity Fund must qualify under one of the following exceptions:
{8832881:3 }
1
Retirement Plans — A defined contribution retirement plan (for example, 401(k) plans, profit sharing plans and money purchase plans), 403(b) plan or 457 plan that offers the Fund as of the Close Date may continue to accept additional investments by existing shareholders of the Fund for additional shares of the Ancora Special Opportunity Fund. New participant accounts within the plan are allowed. In addition, participants in a plan may not open a new account outside of the plan under this exception.
Gifts — An individual may receive shares of the Fund as a gift from a family member who is an existing shareholder of the Ancora Special Opportunity Fund.
Charities — A charitable foundation or trust may receive shares of the Fund from an existing shareholder of the Fund.
Certain Ancora Affiliates — Current trustees or officers of Ancora Funds, employees of Ancora, or a member of the immediate family of any of these persons may invest in the Fund.
Once an account is closed, additional investments will not be accepted unless you meet one of the specified criteria above. Management reserves the right to: (i) make additional exceptions that, in its judgment, do not adversely affect its ability to manage the Ancora Special Opportunity Fund; (ii) reject any investment or refuse any exception, including those detailed above, that it believes will adversely affect its ability to manage the Fund; and (iii) close or re-open the Ancora Special Opportunity Fund to new or existing shareholders at any time. An investment is subject to management’s determination of your eligibility to buy shares of the Ancora Special Opportunity Fund and you may be required to provide additional documentation or otherwise demonstrate eligibility before an investment is accepted.
The closing of the Ancora Special Opportunity Fund does not restrict you from redeeming or selling shares of such Fund. The other Ancora Funds remain open to all investors.
Redemptions In-Kind for All Funds
The following is added to the end of the section titled “Selling (Redeeming) Your Shares” on pages 22-24 of the Statutory Prospectus:
In addition to paying redemption proceeds in cash, each of the Funds reserves the right to pay part or all of your redemption proceeds in securities instead of cash (redemption in-kind). Redemption in-kind proceeds will typically be made by delivering the selected securities to the redeeming shareholder within seven days after the receipt of the redemption order in proper form by a Fund.
If you should have any questions, please call 1-866-626-2672 for assistance. These documents are available upon request and without charge by calling the Trust at 1-866-626-2672.
PLEASE RETAIN THIS SUPPLEMENT FOR FUTURE REFERENCE
{8832881:3 }
2

Investors Head For Fixed Income, Exposure Reaches 7-Year High
Bond and bond fund allocations rose 0.8 percentage points to 19.5%. Last month's increase keeps exposure
https://www.forbes.com/sites/investor/2020/05/12/investors-head-for-fixed-income-exposure-reaches-7-year-high/#19f66d8b5cf4
Many folks maybe staring to head for the hills now
Maybe good time to bail from stocks if near retirement

Careful...Suzie only invest in the stock market what she is comfortable losing:

Orman told a New York Times journalist where she has her OWN money invested…. safe, slow-growing, couldn’t lose-it-if-you-tried municipal bonds! In Orman’s words:
“I buy zero-coupon municipal bonds, and all the bonds I buy are triple-A-rated and insured so that even if the city goes under, I get my money. I take a little lower interest rate to make sure my bonds are 100 percent safe and sound.”
When the reporter asked if she played the stock market at all, Suze dropped this bomb:
“I have a million dollars in the stock market, because if I lose a million dollars, I don’t personally care.”
Why doesn’t she care? Because at the time, her assets were estimated at about $25 million, plus another $7 million in real estate. 1 million out of 32 million equals about 3%. So Suze is only willing to subject 3% of her assets to the roller-coaster ride of the stock market which she pushes so freely on her audience, who CAN’T afford to lose it!
But even Orman’s assertion that losing a million dollars is POSSIBLE ought to send chills down the spines of every Suze Orman follower.
Suze recommends putting YOUR money at risk and out of your control, but she practices the opposite, ONLY putting what she can easily afford to lose in the stock market.

Source:
https://partners4prosperity.com/suze-ormans-advice-on-insurance-investing/

/'Fortunes are going to be made' -- Suze Orman on investing amid the coronavirus pandemic
BY SHAWN LANGLOIS | MARKETWATCH - 05/09/2020
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.marketwatch.com/amp/story/guid/3532E59E-8D6D-11EA-AD06-F36B40BB8290
'I can guarantee you that if you stay in and you just stick with it, three years from now you will be very, very happy that you did'
Celebrity financial adviser Suze Orman isn't for everybody. She once told MarketWatch
http://www.marketwatch.com/ story/suze-ormans-fire-storm-her-advice-for-millennials-retiring-early-is-simple-but-bleak-2019-06-24
that "there are people that hate my guts. You don't even want to know the things they say."
But there's no denying that her common sense brand of money management has resonated with her devoted fanbase over the years. Lately, with many in that fanbase struggling to navigate the coronavirus pandemic, she's been hitting the media circuit to address just some of the issues.
During a CNN segment that aired on Saturday, Orman was asked by a viewer how to approach investing in the stock market in the face of the historic volatility.
Here's her answer:
In other words, she's advising those without more-pressing obligations to take a specific sum of money and invest it every month into something like the Vanguard Total Market ETF(VTI) .
"If you do it month in and month out and you have at least three five or 10 years or longer until you need the money you will be happy," she continued. "If you need money within a year it's not money that belongs in the stock market. Take it out now."
Back in late February, when the Dow Jones Industrial Averagehad dropped more than 1,000 in a single session on fears of what the coronavirus could do to the U.S. economy, Orman raised a few eyebrows when she said "I rejoice" in the face of such pullbacks.
She used the opportunity to again push her case for dollar-cost averaging (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/suze- orman-says-investors-should-rejoice-at-the-dows-more-than-1000-point-tumble-heres-why-2020-02-24).
"The higher the market goes, the shares cost more, the less shares their money buys, the less money they make, in the long run," she told CNBC. "With this dip, if it continues to go down, they should just stay the course and actually be quite happy because the market is still incredibly high."
One month and a brutal stretch of market losses later, the New York Times best-selling author returned to CNBC (https: //www.cnbc.com/2020/03/26/coronavirus-suze-orman-says-no-better-time-to-start-investing.html) in late March to urge investors to stick with the plan.
"You will never, ever, know the bottom. You will never, ever, know the top," she said. "Fortunes are going to be made out of this time. So just stay calm. I can guarantee you that if you stay in and you just stick with it, three years from now you will be very, very happy that you did."
Here's Orman talking financial stability in a recent appearance on the Tamron Hall Show:
(https://www.youtube.com/embed/0Auos1d8c_8)
Orman, of course, is not alone in pushing the time-tested dollar-cost averaging approach.,/
Do you trust ms Orman?

There are no restrictions on how you can use CVD funds. If you’re cash-strapped, you can use the money to pay bills and recontribute later (within the three-year window) when your financial situation improves. You can help out your adult kids now and recontribute later. Whatever. So, a CVD can be a useful cash-flow management tool in these troubled times.
So far, so good.
The catch: not-so-great interim tax consequences

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/taking-cash-out-of-your-ira-under-new-cares-act-rules-is-more-complicated-than-it-sounds-2020-05-04

Value Investments work when they grow...

The best time to be invested in a traditional value stock is when the underlying company has figured out a way to stop shrinking and start growing again. That’s when you’ve got a bargain. The time between when that value stock is unrecognized for its growth prospects and when it becomes so highly recognized that it is now a growth stock – that’s where the money is made in value investing. It’s very hard to detect these opportunities, whether systematically or fundamentally. Most will not be able to. Value traps will be more prevalent than value companies that re-learn how to grow.

https://thereformedbroker.com/2020/05/12/value-investing-is-immortal/

Hard to believe, except when you have lived it.

Earlier this year I wrote about why market timing can be so appealing to investors. The key takeaway was that if you bought the Dow on a random day, there was a 95% chance that the index would be lower at some point in the future.
This implied that you could’ve gotten a better price 95% of the time if you waited (and knew the future). However, it also implied that nearly every time you buy the index, you are basically guaranteed to see your position lose money at some point in time.
But, the better question is: how much could you lose?

and,

This means that half the time you will lose 13.2% or less and half the time you will lose 13.2% or more. In addition, there is a 1 in 4 chance of losing 29.8% or more and a 1 in 4 chance of losing 4.2% or less.
And, for equities, you should expect to see a 50%+ price decline a couple times a century, a 30% decline once a generation, and a 10% price decline at least every other year.

You should always ask yourself, "how much am I comfortable losing?"
how-much-could-you-lose

With no ties to the world of high finance, Sarao accumulated $70 million buying and selling futures as if he were playing a computer game. The bulk of his winnings came during periods of extreme volatility. He also manipulated the markets, according to the U.S. government, creating a computer program that placed then canceled huge volumes of orders to deceive other participants about supply and demand—a brand-new offense known as “spoofing.” Authorities were careful to assert that Sarao’s antics had only contributed to the crash, essentially by creating false signals others reacted to, but that nuance was lost in the ensuing press coverage.

new-book-shares-more-details-on-trader-blamed-for-flash-crash

So I had learned 15 years back. Converted $50K to $75K in 2 months and then turned $75K to $40K in about 8 days. Closed my account and ran. It was a mistake.

Happened to me when trading futures during my doctoral years. Made insane profits & hideous losses until I found what worked for me and my temperment, then I eeked out a slow steady profit for a while before quitting due to life changes. Now when I play (key word) with futures, which is rarely these days, it's in 1-2 lots only which is barely 1% of my trading account value - nothing extravagant.
What worked for me back then was, say if I lost 20K one day ... I would half my position sizing and not increase it back to normal trading lots until I had earned that money back. My thinking was that would reduce my risk and also force me to "be better" in my analysis and trading, even when it was "so clearly obvious" which way the market was going --- which if I acted on that impulse, I'd probably have been wrong. :) (I also considered this my penalty box.)

PS - There are too many people out there selling too many "strategies". Ignore. You need to know what your objective is. Speculating buying calls and puts? or earn income? mine is the latter. I might have said this before. 0.25% a week should be the target. 1% a month. 12% a year. Now lets say 0.10% a week, 0.4% a month, 4.8% a year. I'll still take it.

This. A well known options hedge fund blew up a few years ago because they were selling Very OTM naked puts on various commodities (similar to what VF is doing on the SPY but I'm sure he's more rational/careful) ... which is a strategy that worked in most market conditions, until it didn't, and their positions experienced a multi-sigma move against them overnight, and BAM! Out of business.
Anyone selling you the idea you can make 5-15% overnight, per week, or per month using options (or anything, really) is likely selling you reckless ideas packaged as snake oil. Only pikers will buy into that b/c they are enamored only by the potential gains, not how the trades are structured or what could happen if they lose. In this case, the only person making a profit is the newsletter/signal provider.